2007 MLB Free Agents Rumors

Torre: A-Rod to Dodgers?

The hot stove buzz this morning is Joe Torre's coy remarks about Alex Rodriguez ending up in Dodger blue. Said Torre, "It's possible. It's possible. It's possible." There are a number of articles, but Dom Amore of the Hartford Courant reminds readers that Torre and A-Rod have been exchanging phone messages. In Amore's article Torre adds that "you've got four or five clubs that figure to be in the sweepstakes." The Dodgers were on Jon Heyman's list of possible teams. If the Yankees offer Rodriguez arbitration, which he would decline, and he signs with the Dodgers, the Yankees would not..   Continue Reading

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Could A-Rod Save the O's?

Update: Beat writer Jeff Zrebiec reports that yesterday Miguel Tejada told O's President of Baseball Operations Andy McPhail, "I don't care about changing positions if we're going to be a winner, and I want to be on a team that is going to compete and win." That is a change of tune from the once stubborn shortstop. Orioles Manager Dave Trembley also said, "I fully expect that he'll be a major part of this team next season." The Orioles pitchers have been going the extra mile to make Alex Rodriguez feel at home in Camden Yards this weekend, writes Peter..   Continue Reading

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Andruw Likely Gone

Update: Keith Law just predicted Torii Hunter will make 16MM/year in Texas. That gels with what Andruw's seeking. Tim discussed The Andruw Jones Situation recently and whether he'd accept a 1-year deal or a 5-year hometown discount. Now, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution discusses the inevitable departure of Andruw Jones here and here. Despite Andruw coming off career-worst season of hitting .222 with 26 homeruns and 94 RBIs, Scott Boras has said there's "no way" he'll accept a 1-year deal. Instead, he's seeking a contract at the "fair-market value" of $17-20 million per year. That's Vernon Wells-esque. And why not? Wells has..   Continue Reading

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Free Agent Leftovers

Taking a look at my Top 50 Free Agents list from November 2nd, only nine players remain. So far I've guessed correctly on 14 of the 41 signees (34%). That's already an improvement on last year, but I have to admit there were a lot of no-brainers. More importantly, let's take a look at the nine leftovers and assess the possibilities. 4. Barry Zito - The Mets will meet with Zito this week. The Angels recently dropped out of the bidding. The Rangers have already made an offer, and the Giants seem to be on the fringe. If Zito craves..   Continue Reading

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2007 MLB Free Agents: Tomo Ohka

With seven teams seriously interested, it's time to take a closer look at free agent starter Tomo Ohka. Ohka made $4.53MM this year. He turns 31 in March and is seeking a three-year commitment. RotoWorld names the Nationals, Mariners, Red Sox, Diamondbacks, and Pirates as interested parties. I've also heard the Cardinals mentioned; they seem to succeed with this type of pitcher. Ohka is a guy who pitches to contact and typically shows good command. He's a flyball pitcher who mostly throws fastballs and sliders. Some past history on Tomokazu Ohka (source: RotoWire): 1998: The Red Sox purchased the 22..   Continue Reading

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Free Agent Spending By Team

I've had a few people ask how much money has been spent so far on free agents so I compiled a list at my blog showing the values for the first 28 players that have signed. Here's the link: http://buccoblog.mlblogs.com How's your team doing? Sinking, swimming, or not even close to the water yet? By Jake at Bucco Blo   Continue Reading

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Free Agent Class Ranks 2006

This isn't a major concern for most teams, (especially in the current market) but sandwich picks and other compensation in the rule 4 (amateur) draft are determined by a cockamamie formula developed by the Elias Sports Bureau. Teams that lose a Type A free agent are compensated with two draft picks. Teams that lose a Type B free agent get one pick in return. The other particulars, along with the entire list of this year's FA Class Rankings, can be found here. The entire list of Elias rankings (everybody, not just FAs) can be seen here. (The formula takes into..   Continue Reading

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Tim Getting Married? Oh my..

Tim invited me to post a few comments while he is off on his honeymoon. I suppose my first post should be titled "Why, Tim?" but I'll leave that alone. Instead, I'll throw you a few general tidbits today so you have some reading material over the weekend. The Rockies and Marlins have had some interest in acquiring Chris Duffy from the Pirates but word out of Pittsburgh is, Duffy isn't available. I posted a new article at Bucco Blog: Marginal $/Marginal Wins: 1999 - 2006 which tends to show the front office efficiency of MLB teams over the last..   Continue Reading

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Tier 2 Starting Pitchers

Jason Jennings certainly isn't a free agent, but he may be the best starter available through trade. Let's take a look at how he stacks up against some of the other "Tier 2" guys being bandied about by half the clubs in baseball. Stats are from 2006 except for Randy Wolf, for whom I used '05. Strikeouts per nine innings: Ted Lilly - 7.93 Gil Meche - 7.52 Vicente Padilla - 7.02 Randy Wolf - 6.86 Jason Jennings - 6.03 Jeff Weaver - 5.60 Jeff Suppan - 4.93 Miguel Batista - 4.80 Woody Williams - 4.46 Lilly, Meche, and Padilla..   Continue Reading

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2007 Free Agent Market: Third Basemen

With the Cubs signing both Mark DeRosa and Aramis Ramirez, and the D-Rays winning the rights to Akinori Iwamura, the free agent market for third basemen is shrinking. Check it out. There are basically six viable candidates, and that's if we include questionable third base defenders like Garciaparra, Huff, Hillenbrand, Rich Aurilia, and Helms. The demand for Mike Lowell, Morgan Ensberg, and Joe Crede should be strong   Continue Reading

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2007 MLB Free Agents: Justin Speier

After wrongly leaving Justin Speier off my Top 50 Free Agents list, I felt the need to make it up to him by giving him his very own post. Speier was drafted by the Cubs back in '95, buried in the 55th round. He was a reliever from Day 1. The Cubs made a pretty poor trade for bullpen help at the trading deadline in '98, sending Speier, Kevin Orie, and Todd Noel to the Marlins for Felix Heredia. Things didn't go well for him in Florida, leading to a trade to Atlanta for a no-namer. Speier was placed on..   Continue Reading

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Keith Law's Top 40 Free Agents

You may not be able to read this, as it's behind ESPN's Insider wall. But Keith Law's Top 40 Free Agents list is the kind of material that makes subscribing worth it. Given the plug I just gave, hopefully I can slip in a few highlights of the list here. - Law sees Aramis Ramirez as the best FA on the market. Contrary to popular belief, Ramirez's defense is at least average at third. He's also the youngest FA outside of Matsuzaka. - He sees Matsuzaka allowing more HRs than one might think. - Law ranked Ted Lilly 12th overall,..   Continue Reading

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USA Today On Free Agent Destinations

Six USA Today sportswriters recently weighed in with free agent destination predictions. A quick summary: - They favor the Halos for Alfonso Soriano. - Very mixed feelings on Zito and Schmidt. - The writers expect Jeff Suppan, Aramis Ramirez, and Barry Bonds to remain with their 2006 clubs   Continue Reading

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Dayn Perry's Top 20 Free Agents

Dayn Perry's Top 20 Free Agents list is up at FOX Sports; it looks solid. If I had to gripe I'd say that Vicente Padilla belongs ahead of Jeff Suppan, but it's certainly debatable. And Mark Mulder looks a little high   Continue Reading

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ESPN's Free Agent Tracker

You can't deny that ESPN's Free Agent Tracker is always a handy reference. The new one is out; bookmark it. Though to nitpick I think they should include Japanese guys like Matsuzaka, Igawa, and Iwamura even though they're not technically free agents. Last year Steve Phillips left Kenji Johjima off his initial Top 50 Free Agents list and it was not cool   Continue Reading

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Top Defensive Free Agents

Let's give a little love to that difficult-to-measure skill known as defense. Using John Dewan's Fielding Bible, here are the best available free agents at each position, defensively. Any quote is from the book. 1B - Doug Mientkiewicz - "He has range and agility and is like a vacuum sucking up all throws, good and bad." The problem, of course, is that it's tough to compensate for a .410 SLG from this position. 2B - Craig Counsell - While his arm ain't much, Counsell is quite good moving to his right as well as catching popups. If he can get..   Continue Reading

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2007 MLB Free Agents: Ted Lilly

Today let's take a closer look at free agent southpaw Ted Lilly. Lilly made $4MM this year, failing to hit any of his innings pitched incentives. He'll turn 31 in January and should be able to snag a three-year contract without a problem. 2006 was not his best season despite the career high 15 wins; Lilly's 2004 effort was better and included an All-Star appearance. He's said publicly that he'd like to return to the Bay Area to play with the Giants or again with the A's. The Jays have some interest in retaining him at the right price. Performance-wise..   Continue Reading

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2007 MLB Free Agent Links

With the offseason around the corner, it's time to check out all the available free agents. 93% of you should be interested, while the other 7% can worry about winning the World Series in 2006 first. I've written quite a bit about this winter's free agent class. To see position breakdowns, check out the new 2007 MLB Free Agents section of the sidebar. Just below the Recent Posts section. I'll try to keep the free agent lists up-to-date as players enter or exit the market   Continue Reading

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2007 MLB Free Agents: Designated Hitters

Updated 12/23/06 There are a few players I haven't covered in my free agent position breakdowns yet - those who are purely designated hitters. 2007 League Averages AL: .264/.349/.469 In other words, your DH should hit something like Ryan Zimmerman did this year at the least. I'm going to leave out DH candidates like Barry Bonds and Mike Piazza, as I've covered them elsewhere. Carl Everett - The Mariners made the laughable decision to sign Everett for essentially $4MM to be their DH in 2006. He was terrible, posting a .657 OPS in 92 games before being waived in August...   Continue Reading

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Available Impact Hitters

The offseason hasn't even begun, but already we're hearing all sorts of teams are anxious to open their pocketbooks/prospect vault to acquire an impact hitter. The Angels, Cubs, Astros, and a host of others have money to burn. Let's take a look through all of the available impact hitters, whether via trade or free agency. The players are ranked by their 2006 VORP. VORP is a good stat to use as it takes a player's position into account when ranking offensive performance. 5. Miguel Cabrera - And next year is his age 24 season. Miggy made $472K in 2006 but..   Continue Reading

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2007 MLB Free Agents: Moises Alou

I've recommending that about ten teams should look into signing Moises Alou this winter. I think all of the praise for him warrants a closer look. Alou will enter his age 40 season in 2007. All sorts of injuries limited him to just 221 games with the Giants for the life of his two-year, $13.25MM contract. Despite making only 378 PAs this year, Alou was the 9th best RF in the game according to VORP. He played left field in '05, and his offensive output ranked 6th at the position. The Fielding Bible described Alou's work in left as adequate,..   Continue Reading

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Torii Hunter's Option Exercised

As expected, the Twins exercised Torii Hunter's $12MM 2007 option today. Next year will be his age 31 season. Baseball Prospectus projects his value at just $3.55MM for 2007. On this one I will have to disagree with the numbers; I would exercise the option with little hesitation. The Twins still have roughly $13-15MM to spend this winter; here are the team needs. With Hunter off the market, the likely free agent center fielder options are: Jim Edmonds Gary Matthews Jr. Juan Pierre Dave Roberts Kenny Lofton Steve Finley Darin Ersta   Continue Reading

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2007 MLB Free Agents: Starters

Let's look at the stat leaders among the 2007 free agent starting pitcher class. Want someone who's plain tough to hit? Good luck with that. With BABIPs adjusted to the league average, here are the best free agent pitchers in hits per nine innings. The following group allowed fewer than a hit per inning. Jason Schmidt Ted Lilly Barry Zito Mike Mussina Gil Meche Roger Clemens Byung-Hyun Kim Andy Pettitte Vicente Padilla Best control? Here are the rankings. Carlos Silva Greg Maddux Jeff Weaver Woody Williams Roger Clemens Jamie Moyer Jason Johnson Aaron Sele Brian Moehler Home run prevention? These..   Continue Reading

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2007 MLB Free Agents: Hitters

I'll begin work on my Top 50 Free Agents list soon. I made one last year; it had its ups and downs. A lot of fun. Today, though, we'll take a look at the best the free agent market has to offer depending on your offensive needs. Need power? Teams like the Astros, A's, and Padres could use some pop. Here are the 2007 MLB free agents with the highest slugging percentages this year. Moises Alou - .571 Aramis Ramirez - .561 Alfonso Soriano - .560 Barry Bonds - .545 Frank Thomas - .545 Carlos Lee - .540 Ray Durham..   Continue Reading

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Daisuke Matsuzaka Video

A little more on Japanese hurler Daisuke Matsuzaka. Check out this video of him throwing his various pitches. It's the best look I've had at his breaking ball. It might be a screwball or something weird, but let's remember that Jeff Passan has established that it's not a gyroball. When we last checked in, there was a 50/50 chance of Matsuzaka being posted by the Lions. Here's a rundown on the suitors: This Boston Herald article informed us that the Red Sox, Yankees, and Mets are currently scouting Matsuzaka in Japan. As of September 11th, his numbers looked like this...   Continue Reading

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2007 MLB Free Agents: Woody Williams

Last year, one of the "in the bag" free agent signings was Frank Thomas to the Athletics. It had been long-rumored, and both sides wanted to make it happen. This year, Woody Williams and the Astros may be a similar match. Said John P. Lopez of the Houston Chronicle on August 31st: "And that front-line starting pitcher the Astros will try to land come the winter? He's out there, watching. His name could well be Woody Williams, the Padres starter and long-rumored Astros acquisition who's apparently keen on making it happen this time." Williams is thought to be intent on..   Continue Reading

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Wells, Meche Giving Home Team Consideration

It's a common refrain among impending free agents: "I'll give my current team every chance to re-sign me before hitting the open market." Recently, it's been Vernon Wells and Gil Meche singing that particular tune. Here's the thing about Wells: he's not an impending free agent. He'll be a free agent after 2007; he'll earn $5.6MM next year. The standard superstar practice is to start the contract negotiations a year early. Almost as if the Blue Jays owe Wells something because he's playing at a below-market price in 2007. Which is silly, because it was the Jays taking on the..   Continue Reading

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2007 MLB Free Agent Market: Middle Relievers

Updated 1-9-07 Is there anyone useful left among the free agent relievers? At this point, it's a mixed bag. Take a look at the available free agents. Mike DeJean - He had shoulder surgery in June and barely pitched in 2006. He was useful in 2005 so someone will bring him aboard. Dustin Hermanson - The White Sox declined their $3.65MM option on him after his back limited him to less than seven innings with the big club this year. The Yankees took a look at his medical records earlier this month. Dan Kolb - Despite two full seasons of..   Continue Reading

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The All-Bargain Free Agent Rotation

A week ago, I assembled a pretty decent squad of free agent position players for about $40MM in 2007. This week I'll take a crack at putting together the All-Bargain Rotation, no easy task given the market inflation. Given the nature of free agency, this is going to be a staff of veterans past their prime. SP1 - Andy Pettitte. The 34 year-old southpaw has righted the ship since July. He's still got good command and gets his Ks. He also keeps the ball on the ground reasonably well. Would $16MM over two years do the trick? And is he..   Continue Reading

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2007 MLB Free Agents: Juan Pierre

There's been some talk in the Chicago papers that the Cubs may offer Juan Pierre three years and $24MM this offseason. Let's take a closer look at the 29 year-old speedster. The Cubs acquired Pierre to play center field on December 7th of last year. Before then, the Cubs flirted with Milton Bradley, Brad Wilkerson, Austin Kearns, and Dave Roberts. Definitely a mixed bag there knowing what we know now. I was not a fan of the Pierre acquisition, though the price didn't seem terribly high to me. In hindsight, Cubs fans wouldn't mind having Ricky Nolasco back. Pierre had..   Continue Reading

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The All-Bargain Free Agent Lineup

It's tough to find bargains via free agency. Players are past their peaks and are being compensated more for their past performance than their future. Still, a few deals slip through the cracks every year. Let's assemble a lineup with the best bargains at each position. I'll do the pitchers in another post. C - Gregg Zaun. A million bucks, .360 OBP. I'll take that any time for my catcher. J.P. Ricciardi can complain about payroll, but there was no good reason to toss $5 mil at Bengie Molina this year. 1B - Craig Wilson. The first base crop is..   Continue Reading

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2007 MLB Free Agents: Dave Roberts

There's been some chatter about Dave Roberts lately - he'll be a coveted free agent this winter. Back in July, I discussed Roberts in my center fielder free agent market review: "Roberts, 34, is best known for his stolen base in the 2004 ALCS. He's solidly above average at hitting but is ranked just 30th on defense. He's got a weak arm but was a solid defender prior to 2005. According to the Fielding Bible, Roberts still has his speed and range so he should bounce back defensively if healthy. He's been moved to left field to make an excellent..   Continue Reading

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2007 Free Agent Market: Closers

Updated 1-9-07 There's nothing left on the closer market   Continue Reading

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2007 MLB Free Agents: Jim Edmonds

Seems time to revisit the situation of St. Louis center field stalwart Jim Edmonds. You may recall a month ago, when I remarked: "Edmonds has a $10MM option for '07 with a $3MM buyout, so the Cards really just need to decide if Edmonds is worth $7MM in his age 37 season. Baseball Prospectus says he is, even if he only gets 515 plate appearances as projected. Even on the decline Edmonds is a powerful force in the lineup. However, the Fielding Bible ranks him just 32nd out of 35 center fielders over the last three years. They say that..   Continue Reading

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2007 Free Agent Market: Right Fielders

Updated 12-23-06 As you may know, I've been covering baseball free agents by position for several months now. Next up: right fielders. 2006 League Averages for Right Fielders: AL: .286/.349/.468 (.817 OPS) NL: .268/.345/.453 (.798 OPS) I'll be using info from John Dewan's Fielding Bible to assess these free agents' defensive abilities. Aubrey Huff played right field in 2003 and 2005, but it seems likely he'll be used elsewhere. Jeromy Burnitz - The Pirates and Burnitz have a mutual option for $6MM for 2007. When it's declined, he gets a $700,000 buyout. Burnitz slipped to an ugly .230/.289/.422 line for..   Continue Reading

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2007 Free Agent Market: Center Fielders

Updated 12-23-06 Let's take a look at center fielders destinated to become free agents at year's end. This position typically requires a good defender, though it's nice to contribute offensively. 2006 League Averages for Center Fielders: AL: .275/.334/.437 (.771 OPS) NL: .264/.335/.418 (.753 OPS) Center field defense is crucial. With that in mind, I will provide John Dewan's ranking from his excellent Fielding Bible. Dewan and company ranked 35 center fielders using data over the past three seasons. I am going to leave Preston Wilson, Bernie Williams, and Jay Payton out of the discussion as they are not viewed as..   Continue Reading

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2007 Free Agent Market: Left Fielders

Updated 12-23-06 Let's take a look at left fielders destinated to become free agents at year's end. It goes without saying, but this position requires a slugger. 2006 League Averages for Left Fielders: AL: .280/.347/.449 (.796 OPS) NL: .277/.359/.478 (.837 OPS) Cliff Floyd - The injury-prone 33 year-old hit just .244/.324/.407 this season. With Lastings Milledge, Endy Chavez, and Ben Johnson under contract for next year, the Mets won't retain Floyd. Maybe Floyd will take a Jermaine Dye type deal - two years, about $10MM plus an option. Cubs GM Jim Hendry goes way back with Floyd, so the team..   Continue Reading

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2007 Free Agent Market: Third Basemen

Updated 1-2-06 Here we have info on the free agent third basemen market. 2006 League Averages for Third Basemen AL: .269/.338/.442 (.780 OPS) NL: .282/.354/.472 (.826 OPS) Sorry folks - there are no free agent starting third basemen on the market anymore   Continue Reading

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2007 Free Agent Market: Shortstops

Updated 12-07-06 Sorry folks, there's nothing left at short. The demand for Miguel Tejada, Michael Young, and Omar Vizquel should be strong if someone needs to make a splashy deal   Continue Reading

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2007 Free Agent Market - Second Basemen

Updated 1-9-07 Let's assess the 2B free agent market next offseason for those teams in need. These are the guys who I consider starters at the position. Ronnie Belliard - Should be worth about $4 mil at age 32 in 2007. Consistent if not spectacular. The dreads are a plus   Continue Reading

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2007 Free Agent Market: First Basemen

Updated 1-2-07 Today we take a look at the first basemen available as free agents after the 2006 season. These are players who I think are actually capable of starting regularly at first base. Aubrey Huff and Darin Erstad - I don't think they'll end up at 1B next year. Phil Nevin - He made $10MM this season. The Rangers traded him to the Cubs and Nevin responded with an .832 OPS as Derrek Lee's replacement. Things didn't go so well after the Cubs traded him to Minnesota, however. A long shot to start for anyone next year. Craig Wilson..   Continue Reading

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2007 Free Agent Market: Catchers

Updated 12-23-06 Looking for a new starting backstop after the 2006 season? These are your free agent options. Javy Lopez - Lopez caught just 38 games in 2006, so who knows how he'll be behind the plate at age 36. He'll have to take a huge pay cut from this year's $8.5MM. The Rockies could sign him despite the presence of Yorvit Torrealba and Chris Iannetta on the roster   Continue Reading

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MLB Free Agents 2007: Greg Maddux

It's kind of funny to see Jay Mariotti jumping on the Greg Maddux bandwagon after two starts. The secret to Maddux's quick start is not fitness. In reality, he's the exact same Professor he has been for the last three years. Maddux's H/9 rate fluctuates from season to season. I don't think he has a lot of control over this. Sure, in his 1992-98 insane peak he certainly allowed fewer hits for a reason. But he gave up tons of hits in '99 and it looks like a fluke. He seems to have established a new general range since 2003...   Continue Reading

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MLB Free Agents 2007: Eric Gagne

Recently I got to thinking about Eric Gagne. 30 years old. An unstoppable relief ace from 2002-04 (a 1.79 ERA and 13.3 K/9 over 247 innings. Imagine if he did that in one season as a starter! Roto Immortality.) Tommy John surgery in 1997 plus another cleanup type surgery last summer. A $10MM salary for 2006 with a $12MM option for 2007. With Scott Boras as his agent, Gagne may elect to void that '07 option. Or the Dodgers may simply choose not to exercise it. The Dodgers are one probably the only team in baseball with two established "closers"..   Continue Reading

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MLB Free Agents 2007: Mark Mulder

After reading Joe Strauss's article today in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, I got to thinking about impending free agent Mark Mulder. The standout quote: "Mulder is certain to seek a package with higher average annual value than the five-year, $55 million contract A.J. Burnett received last December from the Toronto Blue Jays." I don't doubt that he'll want and expect this kind of money, based on his career totals of 98 victories, a 3.87 ERA, and a 1.30 WHIP before age 29. The problem with his contract (and most free agent contracts) is that he'll be paid largely on what..   Continue Reading

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