Baseball Blogs Weigh In

i cannot believe that first comment about the twins signings. all i ever hear is twins are cheap! they never spend money! then won't sign their good young players! and then when they do...it's a major risk and not good use of limited resources. shut up.

I like the Morneau signing. The Cuddyer extension makes nosense to me whatsoever.

i could agree that cuddyer's deal seems a little steep. but didn't geoff jenkins just get a 2 year 13 million dollar deal? that's 6.5 million a year. 8 million a year for a younger cuddyer is a market price. he's a very, very good defensive outfielder (watch him play every day and not just look at stats), and he has been a good hitter the last couple years after moving to RF, even though his numbers were down last year because of injury. these are both good signings.

"he's a very, very good defensive outfielder (watch him play every day and not just look at stats),"

He is a terrible, one of the worst in all of baseball outfielders, don't just remember some good throwouts you've seen look at his stats.

Listen I get it, I watch Manny play the wall at Fenway like a champ and gun people down at 2nd all the time and think he is a decent LF we all make mistakes.

last year he led the league in assists (19) and had a .986 fielding percentage. he only made 4 errors all year. in the dome. with the baggy in right. 2nd year playing outfield.

compare him with JD drew. drew made more errors (5), had fewer assists (3), and a weaker fielding percentage (.977). all while making almost double the money. AND, cuddyers offensive numbers were even better than drew's. it's the market man. 8 million for cuddyer is nothing.

I am surprised people seem to like the Twins signings. I thought it would backfire with people wondering why they cannot sign Santana. Make no mistake about it that Morneau deal is a gamble. If he does not take the next step then they are overpaying.

Yeah, fielding percentage and assists are the best way to measure defense. MLB should really open the season with a public service announcement explaining everything wrong with such an approach.

Gleeman's probably a friend of Tim's but he's stat-hack. The one-gray-cloud in-the-clear-blue-sky angle backed by cherry-picked stats, just isn't worthy of the praise he receives in the blogoshere. I really wish more bloggers would call him out, because he just doesn't represent what reasonable Twin fans think.

I have to disagree. Both are great deals in the current market.

Morneau will look like a steal for a 1b with excellent defense and good power like him. Especially after Tex signs a megadeal next offseason, which will only raise the bar for 1b. And you guys seem to forget just how lacking the Twins are in power over the last decade. They finally got a guy with good power, so they locked him up at a reasonable rate.

As for Cuddyer, it's the same thing. He's not a superstar, but he's at least an average RF offensively, with an arm that negates some of his poor range. Let's not forget what some guys are making these days. His contract basically averages out to $7.5 M a season. Moises freaking Alou who is like 55 now just had his option exercised for a similar amount over 1 year. Cuddyer's deal will look better and better in time. Also, 2 other important factors: Cuddyer is actually a big clubhouse leader for the Twins, the leader of the team now that Hunter is gone. That is important for a young team. He's also RH, which the Twins definitely need to keep. All of Morneau/Mauer/Kubel are LH, 3 of their very best hitters. And Parmalee/Revere, two of their best prospects coming, are also LH. Plus FMart if the Mets deal goes down. Cuddyer makes all kinds of sense.

Lastly, the structure of the contracts is also ideal. Bill Smith got creative and worked bonuses in since the Twins have more available money this season than next. Now that allows more flexibility for the Twins to sign players or extend others when the ballpark opens in 2010 and the payroll jumps $20 M.

I have to vehemently disagree with Gleeman on this. I'm in favor of pretty much any longterm deal right now for young/prime players that have shown to be at least average major leaguers, and these two deals are no exception. Salaries will only continue to rise as FA gets weaker and revenue streams continue to rise. Great deals.

Oh, and Pseudo, completely agreed on Gleeman.

how can you say signing morneau to a 6 year deal is a gamble and NOT say that signing johan to a 6 year deal is not a HUGE gamble. especially when his salary would be over 1/4 the twins total salary. a pitcher, entering his 30's would be more than 25% of minnesota's salary. that's a gamble.

I think it's interesting to compare the thoughts on the Rolen/Glaus trade from Blue Jays bloggers vs. Cardinals bloggers.

Mike on the Cards
http://stlcardinalred.blogspot.com

Gotta agree with djskilbr; Morneau and Cuddyer are not mega-stars, but these aren't mega-star contracts, either. They seem pretty fair for both sides.

The problem is with buying into the whole limited resources argument in the first place. The Twins had revenues of $131M in 2006. Probably $145M last year. They can expect to easily exceed $150M for the next two years, and then get a big boost from the new ballpark. They've been turning nice profits every year since revenue sharing was increased in the 2002 CBA. Yeah, they can't afford to sign an all-star free agent at every position, but they've got plenty of resources. They should sign Santana for 6/120 already and stop whining.

Not sure why everyone thinks Morneau is guaranteed to be a "steal" or a "bargain." How many players making 16-17 million are usually described by those phrases? If everything went right maybe they end up saving 10 mil over the last three years which is nice but not exactly the upside I would want when calling a deal a steal.

Cherry picked stats? Those are career totals in some of the best areas to measure a player's value. You think it is a coincidence the numbers line up very well with what morneau put up last year?

Um, yes, it's a coincidence. In 2006 he had a .934 OPS. In the first 4 months of 2007 he had a .937 OPS. Then all his protection went down and he plummeted. Now that the Twins' protection issues are solved with Young/Mauer/Cuddyer/Kubel, Morneau is a whole lot likely to be what he was in 2006 than in 2007.

Also, his contract ISN'T 16-17 M. It's just over 13 per on average. That IS a steal. Especially considering Howard and Tex are both about to get $20+ M/season on 6-7 year deals. Just wait; this is a total bargain.

Howard is still four years away from free agency. Even if the Phillies sign him long-term, he won't be getting $20M per any time soon. Teixeira will get more than Morneau because a) he will actually be a free agent after next season, and b) he's better.

Morneau's contract isn't a steal, and it isn't a disaster either. But I don't get why it has to be one or the other. Why can't it just be what it is: a good deal for both the player and the team?

I overlooked the signing bonus (smart move) but he will still make 15 mil (not 13) if you prorate it the last 4 years of the deal. They probably overpaid for his last year of arbitration on purpose to balance out the money in another savvy move. Why I said 16-17 is that they essential bought out his first 3 years of free agency for something like 16 mil a year.

I never said I thought this was a bad move, just not a steal. It is pretty much what it should be. It could end up good, bad or simply fair. The problem is everyone is assuming Morneau will put it together for a whole season thus making it a "steal" which is a stretch considering he has never done it and even worse they are not factoring in the possiblity he strings together two of his bad streaks instead. It is the biggest contract ever for the Twins and Morneau is an interesting choice for that honor. If you really think he is likely to hit 321 again consistently then that is quite humorous. It would be relatively surprising if he hit over 290 this year and got on base much more than 350.

Um, walkoff blast, I don't expect .321 again at all, but I do think he'll hit more like .290 to. 300 with an OBP of around .360. David Ortiz to this point in his career was actually almost EXACTLY the same as Morneau. And Morneau is just getting into his prime.

Also, as I mentioned, his OPS was .934 in 2006. In 2007, on July 31 it was .937. He was the exact same hitter. Then the last 2 months, Mauer went down, Cuddyer couldn't hit because of his thumb injury, and Torii had 1 awful month in September so Morneau had ZERO protection. He's going to have some of the best protection in the game over the life of this contract with Cuddyer/Mauer/Young/Kubel. I'd say it's FAR more likely that Morneau hits more like his 2006 numbers than his 2007 numbers. And if he even hits just directly in the middle, this contract is well worth it as he'd still be one of the top 5-6 1b in the game.

Mac, actually, you're wrong. Howard is asking for $10 M right now in his FIRST year of arbitration, and he's likely to get it. Morneau would be in his 2nd year of arbitration right now. Do you read Jason Stark? He's as close to the Phillies as anyone and he just did a full breakdown on the Howard situation and specifically said that the Howard camp is already asking for 7 years/$150 M. What would that be? Oh ya, over $20 M a year. And he's a year younger arbitration-wise than Morneau. Plus, that's not even factoring in defense, where Morneau easily trumps Howard.

As for Tex, yes, he's about to be a FA. But he is likely to get $20 M/year for 6 or 7 years.

I'm not saying that Morneau is as good or better than either player, but his average is just over $13 M/year. Is Morneau worth more than 65 percent of Howard/Tex? Hell yes he is. And as such, it's a great deal.

"Howard is asking for $10 M right now in his FIRST year of arbitration, and he's likely to get it."

Let's see, $10M is what? Half of $20M, right? So how exactly does that make me wrong? It seems you missed my point, which was about the relative amounts of leverage that different players have at different times in their careers. Teixeira is likely to get 6 or 7 years at $20M per precisely because he is going to be an actual free agent, able to sell his services on the open market. Do you think Torii Hunter would have gotten 5/90 if a team controlled him for the next three or four years?

Getting back to Howard, asking for 7/150 when you're still four years away from free agency is not exactly the same thing as getting 20M a year soon, is it? The Phillies (or any other team) would be insane to give that kind of contract to Howard (or any non-FA player). If a team is going to take on the risk of a player still under their control getting hurt or his performance declining, then the player is going to have to take a bit of a discounted salary in exchange for the security. That's the way thes deals always work. Albert Pujols asked for $10.5M in arbitration back in 2004. But when he signed his extension, he took $7M for that season, which was the Cardinals' arb offer. If Howard is really asking for that kind of contract, the Phillies should just pay the arb awards. Even if he wins $10M, 13M, 16M and $20M for the next four years, they'll be saving money. And if he breaks down or falls off a cliff, they're off the hook.

"He's going to have some of the best protection in the game over the life of this contract with Cuddyer/Mauer/Young/Kubel."

Wow. No comment.

"I don't expect .321 again at all, but I do think he'll hit more like .290 to. 300 with an OBP of around .360."

Well I see you are backing of your likely to be what he was in 06 argument some. The fact remains aside from 06 he has never hit above 271 or had an OBP above 343. So 290-300/360 is optimistic not guaranteed. He very well could turn out to be great and a bargain but it would be foolish to annoint him as such prematurely.

Um, I'm not backing off it at all. He is likely to be much more similar to 2006 than 2007. Again, through the first 4 months of 2007 he had the EXACT same OPS as he did in 2006, with a lower average but a higher OBP, showing he's learning plate discipline even more.

As for the protection argument, you disagree? He has 2 #1 overall picks hitting next to him, plus another 1st rd pick that is a solid player in Cuddyer, plus Kubel.

How many teams have that in their future heart of the order? Almost no one. I fully stand by that comment.