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Erik Bedard Mariners/Reds Rumors

UPDATE, 1-10-08 at 5:38pm: Churchill has further updated his right-hand sidebar referencing the Reds possibility.  He says the O's want Bailey, Votto, Cueto, and Edwin Encarnacion.  This is particularly lopsided, and pushing Melvin Mora back to Cincy wouldn't make it any less so.  Mora may have negative value at this point.  Meanwhile John Fay says nothing new has happened on the Reds/Bedard front.

UPDATE, 1-09-08 at 9:07pm:  Rosenthal checks in with an update.  If the Mariners would give up Chris Tillman, they could have a done deal.  Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein ranks the 19 year-old righty as Seattle's second best prospect, giving him a number two starter ceiling.  Rosenthal confirms that Jones is the centerpiece, while George Sherrill and Carlos Triunfel are in play.

Meanwhile, Jason Churchill of Prospect Insider says on the right-hand sidebar of this page that the Reds might step up their offer in an attempt to make a late play.  He thinks they could give up Homer Bailey, Joey Votto, Johnny Cueto, and a fourth player, which would be absurd.

FROM 1-09-08 at 9:03am:

On Tuesday, both Ken Rosenthal and Jason Churchill carefully stated that the Orioles and Mariners were making progress on an Erik Bedard trade.  The deal would center around Adam Jones but include other good young players as well.  The Reds and Indians were named as other lingering Bedard suitors.

Larry Stone of the Seattle Times checked in on the Bedard situation today.  His MLB source agreed that talks between the Mariners and Orioles have heated up.  Andy MacPhail, however, would not use the words "heating up."  Stone goes on to mention that the Mets "could be players" for Bedard in addition to the Ohio teams.  Contrary to earlier reports, Stone was able to extract a quote from Ms GM Bill Bavasi that indicated Brandon Morrow was not off limits.

John Hickey admits that the rumors won't die but doesn't think the Mariners have made any actual progress on a deal.  He agrees that Morrow seems a bit more available than he did before.  Hickey suggests Josh Fogg could be a backup plan to Bedard for Seattle, noting that Fogg likes the idea of pitching in Safeco.  The Reds are also believed to have interest in Fogg.

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hard to believe that brandon morrow would hold up a deal for erik bedard.

morrow is garbage.

What kind of uninformed idiotic bs is it to call Brandon Morrow "garbage"?
Bsox21, you are obviously a pompous fool.
The kid is 23 and pitched all of 16 minor league innings before being rushed to the majors. Was the 5h overall draft pick in 2006.
Ummm 4.15 era isn't bad for pitching in college in 06. Let's check his major league career so far, fewer hits than innings allowed . . . that's good. More strikeouts than innings . . .also good. 3 HRs allowed in 63 innings . . . that's really good. His only problem is his lack of command and his need to develop a more consistent breaking pitch.
Your comment far exceeded stupid and uninformed.
The Mariners don't want to give up Morrow NOT because he is the 2nd coming of Jesus, but because they have a lack of starting pitchers. Trading Morrow for Bedard is a starter for a starter to the Mariners. Neither Ramirez, Baek, Dickey, anor Feierabend inspire confidence.
Brandon Morrow is a talented young player who relies too much on his fastball. But garbage?

delaware,

thank you for your response. unforunately there's nothing in there i find the least bit interesting.

his stats were accumulated as a reliever, which is a completely different animal than being a starter. for most of us, its a given. for u, well.....moving on.

when speaking of players, i consider the context.

if we're talking about a trade for livan hernandez, morrow is a monster.

when we're talking about erik bedard, who i believe is the best pitcher in the game right now ignoring durability, morrow is garbage.

if u have a chance to add bedard to ur rotation, morrow is a negligeble part of that decision.

Saying that Josh Fogg is your backup plan to not acquiring Eric Bedard is like saying Miguel Cairo was the backup plan for the Yankees not re-signing A-Rod.

"Saying that Josh Fogg is your backup plan to not acquiring Eric Bedard is like saying Miguel Cairo was the backup plan for the Yankees not re-signing A-Rod."

Miguel Cairo...he replaced HOF Ryne Sandburg at 2nd when he retired. Miguel Cairo...not good.

Bsox21,
You are grasping at straws. Unless the linup changes in the middle of the game, it turns out that innings are innings. Doesn't matter if it is the 1st inning or the 6th. I would even say it is easier to pitch early innings than later innings (tis why there are closers). I've never seen a team give up a run for a double play in a game tied in the 7th inning, while I see it often in the 1-3 innings. Relief is different that starting, but to imply that it is easier is foolish.

Compare Brandon Morrow to Jon Lester. Both are young and each pitched ~60 innings in 2007. This was Morrow's first taste of anything above A ball. Lester had well over 300 innings over A ball by that time.
Morrow's numbers are better ACROSS THE BOARD than Lester's. Fewer hits. More K's. Lower ERA. The only place where Lester is better is fewer walks.
I suppose then that in the same token, Jon Lester is garbage? As in the proposal to the Twins for Santana, Lester is piece of the puzzle. Not garbage.
I wonder about mindset of any human being that would refer to somebody else he's never met as "garbage".
Curious. How many times have you seen Brandon Morrow throw in person?? What are you backing this preposterous statement with?????

delaware,

while i appreciate your attempt to generate a discussion, i dont feel it is a good use of my time.

you have a lot to learn about baseball and you're quite immature. you don't seem like the brightest bulb in the lamp either.

i will pass on this discussion. thanks for playing.

Bsox21 pompous again. Who would have guessed?

Immature. I offer stats while you name call. Think about it and try not to be blinded by your own brilliance.

Its best to ignore bsox. I guess you never noticed before this thread but he is truly retarded.

Agreed. He appears to bring nothing to the table.

Bsox21, you are and idiot.

Delaware kid was backing up his argument with fact while you backed up nothing on your end but to call him immature and lacking in baseball knowledge? The pot calls the kettle what?

Brandon Morrow is not garbage in ANY sense. He has a plus plus fastball that despite having poor command and hardly ever using his secondary pitches, the fastball made him a successful major league pitcher in 2007. That tells you something about this kids arm right there. He went out there and opposing hitters knew the fastball was coming and knew he had trouble locating it. They still couldn't hit the guy.

There are a lot of "ifs" surrounding Morrow but if he can develop his secondary stuff, he should be able to be a solid #2/#3 starting in the AL. If he doesn't improve his command or breaking pitches he will be a setup man or closer. There isn't a big risk with him since that would be his bottom projection because his fastball is that good.

Again, anyone who calls a blue-chip prospect that has proven he can pitch in the bigs with what amounts to be no service time in the minors "garbage", really is the one lacking in the baseball knowledge debt.

"Bsox21, you are and idiot."

hahaha...irony much?


By the way, if you believe there is no difference between starting and relieving, well then please just shut up.

gobosox420
i love how you can take what he said, change it up a bit and make it to where it is a valid point to argue. he never said there wasnt a difference between them because that would be stupid. he said that there is no difference between the starter pitching the 3rd inning and the releiver pitching the 7th. they both a facing the same lineup with the same defense.

I think gobosox420 and bsox21 are in fact the same person(check ip address) Don't mess that that guy hes got a posse of himself's to backup his arguements.

I gotta say that bsox21 is right that starting is quite different from relieving. As a starter you need to prepare yourself to pitch well for at least six innings, which means putting somewhat less into your pitches. In the bullpen, pitching against only a few batters at a time, Morrow can rear back and throw as hard as he can and really overpower hitters. As a starter he may have to cut back on how hard he throws, which could have a great deal of effect on his performance. I think a high 4's ERA would be likely for Morrow next yeare. Not very impressive, but someone he would very likely build on. He's far from garbage. But yeah if I were Seattle and I could get a deal done for Adam Jones, Brandon Morrow and a third player then I would have to do it. If you watched Bedard pitch last year you would understand how devasting and dominating he can be. A rotation of King Felix, Bedard, Silva, Batista and Ramirez is damn good to me.

Imagine if you were about to enter a discussion with someone about global warming and right away you learned that the other person thinks the world is flat.

You'd probably refrain from continuing what will cleraly result in nothing more than frustration.

"If you watched Bedard pitch last year you would understand how devasting and dominating he can be."

He's the best pitcher on earth right now if he stays healthy. If he can overcome his injury issues, there is not a pitcher on earth id take over bedard.

if his body holds up, we are about to see the emergence of an extremely special player.

if erik bedard can crack 200 innings, the AL cy young is a given.

My only problem with that though is that health is a huge question. Essentially Bedard could be an ace for the next 10 years, or something close to Kerry Wood. For the players the M's would be giving up its a huge, huge risk to take.

If a shot at bedard costs u adam jones and morrow who is nothing but a hard thrower right now (i wont even call him a pitcher yet. i have mlb package and have watched morrow several times), id do it in a heartbeat.

add another C or D level prospect for all i care. a guy like bedard can change the direction of your organization for the next 20 years.

EXACTLY. Bedard could change the direction of that organization for the next 20 years. Positively or negatively. Bedard could stay healthy and dominate for 10 years while Jones and Morrow don't pan out. Or Bedard could flame out and never maintain his health ever again, while Jones and Morrow become superstars. It's an unbelieably huge risk. The reward would be massive as well though.

if ur gona take that view, then ur a GM that never trades.

prospects like adam jones pop up all the time. how many of these "toolsy" prospects with no pitch recognition actually pan out? the success rate is less than 5%.

this is why beltran and soriano get the mega bucks. cuz they are SO rare.

u take ur chance wiht a 28 yr old lefty with K/9 north of 11 going back to college, who jus DESTROYED the AL for 175 innings, who has been trending positively for the past 4 years AT THE MAJOR LEAGUE LEVEL IN WHAT WAS THE TOUGHEST DIVISION or adam jones who still cannot tell the difference between a slider and a fatball?

u can add the "risk" of dealing a kid who does nothing more than throw hard in the general direction of the plate.

I'll take bedard.

"Bedard: A trade between the Orioles and Mariners is only one player away from completion, major-league sources say, but that one player could be right-hander Chris Tillman, a 19-year-old that the M's would prefer to retain.
Outfielder Adam Jones would be the centerpiece of the deal for the Orioles, and left-handed reliever George Sherrill and 17-year-old shortstop Carlos Triunfel are among the other players under discussion."

like i said, morrow is garbage when ur talking about erik bedard.

he's not a factor in this discussion. when closing a deal for an erik bedard type player, u need multiple guys with elite upside.

morrow is about as close to becoming a major league starter as i am right now.

id be pleasantly surprised if morrow ever even became a #5 starting pitcher in the bigs.

I never said that it was a deal I wouldn't make. I just said that it is a huge risk/reward situation. Thats why I gave both sides of the argument. If they could get Bedard for Jones, Sherill and a third quality prospect then I would probably do it.

But if I was Seattle I wouldn't give up Carlos Triunfel. He's too young to deal because what he does in the next couple years will be huge.

triunfel is interesting. i didnt know much about him until he came up in trade talks in my dynasty league last week.

someone offered him to me for troy patton. i balked at first, but now i wonder. patton's value is nice as a major legue ready arm, but triunfel sounds like he can be quite special.

I'd still trade triunfel with adam jones and tillman for bedard. jus saying, i'm jus learning taht this kid is something special.

Is that bump to Prospect Insider working for anyone else? I'm assuming a 4th player in the deal would not be a very highly rated one, considering that deal would include something like the 9th, 23rd, and 42nd prospects, or close to that, as ranked by Baseball America in the postseason. I wouldn't know what to think if the Reds made that move. Cueto and Bailey could go on to be stars, and Bedard could win the NL cy young next year. Who knows.

See thats my problem with Bedard. You're calling him a kid, but in reality this guy isnt all that young. He turns 29 in March. He's essentially the same age as Johan Santana, who turns 29 in March as well. So you have to accept that this guy is far from young. No way I would do Jones, Tillman and Triunfel.

What is Bill Bavasi's contract status in Seattle? Is this his last year, or does he still have a few years? The speculation on the Reds still jumping in has to do with this being Krivsky's last year under contract. Adding Baker and Cordero and then not producing a winning season would not make the owner happy.

if i was the mariners i would want a time window to negotiate a contract extension or it is not worth trading away the farm for only two years of Bedard

You have to look at the Bedard situation similarly to the Santana one. These guys are in their prime, dominant and close to free agency. If Bedard was 25 with 4-5 years of service time left, he would be worth the moon. Fact is that he has 2 years left before he hits the market so you have to calculate his worth accordingly.

Personally I would never include Triunfel with Jones. NO WAY. You can't give away two potential elite players for what could be a 2 year rental.

yeah i agree that is either triunfel or jones not both in any deal

Trade Triunfel ?

Are you crazy ?! He's 17 !!!

When i am watching the Mariners in 2014 i want to see Triunfel make his major league premiere and win the rookie of the year award ! I want something to look forward to !

I don't want to hear no cock and bull story about the Mariners wanting to win in 08 or even 09. What about the 6 year plan ? Your saying holding on to a guy who will contribute meaningfully in 6 years is unrealistic ??? And Felix and all the other guys will be gone by then ? You know what i say, you guys don't have any patience !

Screw Bedard, i don't mind waiting six years, unlike the rest of you people who like living in the present. As long as i don't go to sleep feeling like the Mariners have been ripped off, thats all i care about.

^^^
Thats too much typing for sarcasms sake.

Triunfel is 17 and will start 2008 in AA. He is one of those types that are so good that you can see them coming from a mile away. ARod and Griffey were that way. At 18 both of those guys were just no miss talents. I'm not saying Triunfel will be as good as either of those guys but he is in that mold of a super teen, can't miss type.

I would not be surprised if Triunfel is in the bigs before he's 20.

If there's any truth at all to that updated Jason Churchill article Mariners fans don't have to worry. That's the Reds offering the #9,#23, and #43 prospects in baseball, plus Encarnacion, way too much to give up, but hey, I'm not their GM, he can do whatever he feels like doing. I'll just enjoy watching Bedard pitch.

I hope that Reds rumor is true. Save the Mariners from themselves.

I want to say thankyou for agreeing with me thr33nil, Triunfel is the future of the club.

I projected him as being a 5 time allstar with 40 homerun a year potential after seeing his T-ball game when he was just 3 years old. Why win now when you only have to wait four years to get Triunfel into the fold and pounding the sloberknockers ? So what Bedard struck out over 200 guys last year ? Triunfel will do that for you to if you only as him, he's a generous soul.

Just think about it ?! In 2012 the Mariners won't have any of the bad contracts they have now ! I don't know about the rest of you people who don't believe in the Mariners, but Thr33nil and I will be enjoying Triunfel and Ichiro crushing the competition for years to come.

Don't get me started on Ken Griffey Jr's Jr. Sure he's only 3 years old, but judging from his finger paintings, i already project him to be the Mariners #2 starter in 2024, and you better believe i wouldn't trade that type of potential for a two year rental of Bedard.

You know what I have been thinking about this Bedard thing for the Reds and honestly I would love to have him as a Red with Harrang and Arroyo. Here are my thoughts

If the Orioles give the Reds Bedard and maybe another low level prospect pitching wise who doesn't suck. Then the Reds give up Cueto, Bailey, (who I personally am not that high on), Votto and a low level guy that is not a huge prospect I think Baltimore would have to make that deal. They are getting the Reds 2 best pitching prospects besides the guy we got from Texas and Mahoney. and they are getting a great 1st baseman in Votto.

If this trade does go down as proposed by the article then the Reds Rotation would be

Harrang
Bedard
Arroyo
Belise
Free agent, Mahoney, or the guy they got from Texas.

Who knows maybe Bedard will like Cincinnati and sign a slightly higher deal than what Arroyo and Harrang are getting til 2012.

Oh by the way I still think this is a pipe dream for the Reds but just speculating.

Why would the Mariners or the Reds consider trading all that young talent for only 2 yrs. of Bedard? If i'm Toronto, i'm loving this.

sounds like the O's are getting greedy...if they can get a "yes" on Bailey, Cueto and Votto, they'd better run and run fast to sign on the dotted line. Asking for Encarnacion is too much (and he's a bum, anyway). If including him becomes a deal-breaker, then the Orioles are dumber than all get-out.

Wow! A package of Votto, Bailey, and Cueto is not enough for the O's. As a Cubs fan, I'm frightened about what they might be asking for Roberts.

'Personally I would never include Triunfel with Jones. NO WAY. You can't give away two potential elite players for what could be a 2 year rental.'

Yeah 2 years of Cy Young potential and the draft pick compensation if he does leave is not worth players with potential. O's fans know about potential. We had J.Hammonds, A.Ochoa, J.Hairston and well you get the idea. Potential is only a possiblity. Bedard has gotten better every season in MLB.

To say that Edwin Encarnacion is a bum is ridiculous. This would be a tough deal for the Reds to make, but if they want to win now, I think you have to make the deal. The NL Central is extremely weak right now, adding Bedard to what will still be a potent offense could send them to a division championship and even further. Harang and Bedard would be a great 1-2 punch. Arroyo as your #3 isn't bad either. I say lets make a deal, but you definitely cant put EE in the deal to.

Rumor was that the Orioles turned down a Cub offer of Gallagher, Marshall and Cedeno for Roberts and are insisting on Pie. Yikes.

Another thing I heard is that the Reds already turned the Orioles away in December when they wanted Bailey, Votto and Cueto.

Mariners supposedly offered Jones, Tillman and Sherrill. Not sure what Baltimore is thinking about that but they supposedly like Tillman a lot.

If I had to guess, I would say nothing happens unless the Orioles come off their demands a bit. I sure wish something would happen with Bedard or Santana so other chips could fall.

There is no way I can see the Cubs moving Hill, Vitters, or Pie for Roberts. If I'm Jim Hendry, my next offer is Sean Marshall and Tyler Colvin. Then add Cedeno if necessary. I really like Sean Gallagher so I would try to hold onto him. Colvin won't have a spot in the outfield anyways with Soriano, Pie, and Fukudome, not mention Matt Murton in the mix as well.

As for Bedard, I think the Mariners are making a huge mistake. If it is true that they are offering Adam Jones, Carlos Triunfel, and either Tillman or Sherill, then Seattle is getting screwed. Adam Jones and Carlos Triunfel have geniune superstar potential. Adding another top pitching prospect to that just seems dumb. I think it'd be smarter for the Mariners to hold onto Triunfel and include Morrow in the deal. I don't have a lot of faith in Morrow as a starter. Even though Triunfel is a huge risk considering how young and raw he is, he has the potential to be a guy you could build your team around.

For Cub fans this is nothing new, McPhail is going to be left holding the bag again. He'll almost certainly lose Bedard for nothing if he doesn't trade him before he becomes a free agent. He's asking way too much for Roberts and unless Roberts can show he can still hit without steroids, he'll have to dump him at a reduced value by the trade deadline. There was much rejoicing when the Cubs finally dumped McPhail. The team improved instantly upon his departure. The Cubs were suddenly able to complete deals without his ultra-conservative approach. I feel for you Oriole fans. Be prepared for several years of failed opportunities.

Scribbletone, now that makes sense. A compromise of substituting Colvin for Gallagher is how you get this deal done. Colvin has the star potential McPhail wants but is currently blocked on the Cubs. It makes sense. The O's, if they get Jones, would have one of the best young OF's in baseball. It's win/win. Meanwhile Cub fans are pretty nervous with Dempster as the fifth guy, most of us would rather see Gallagher take that spot. He's not going to win the Cy Young but he's a big guy with good stuff who's going to eat innings for you -- what more could you ask of a fifth starter? In a couple of years he'll be the third guy. I'm not sure why McPhail isn't jumping at that M's deal if that rumor is accurate.

"If it is true that they are offering Adam Jones, Carlos Triunfel, and either Tillman or Sherill, then Seattle is getting screwed."

=================

Latest is that it's Jones, Tillman and Sherrill. No Triunfel. If Bavasi was willing to deal Jones and CT, he should get lynched.

I'm not sure how I feel about that deal. Tillman has more upside as a starter than Morrow but is still only 19 and theres a lot of risk there. Jones is obviously a stud but his value is in CF. He will be stuck in RF or LF for the next 5 years in Seattle if he stays. Plus, the Mariners have a similar bat in Wladimir Balentien that can step into RF for 2008. He may not have the 5-tool makeup that Jones has but is easily as good a hitter and may have a higher ceiling at the plate.

oh don't worry the mariners can trade the farm away they just signed another stellar pitcher to me to root for chris reitsma to a minor league deal. we can all forget about bedard the mariners really don't need him now.sorry i just couldn't resist making fun of the situation of signing a banged up pitcher with an era last year of 7.61 and two stints on the DL.

the Os are going to far now.

Votto, Cueto, bailey and EE is too much for bedard.

Votto - safe bet to be at least a mid tier 1B

Cueto - one of the best arms in the minors riht now. Ranked higher than bailey in my book.

bailey - nothign more than a hard thrower right now, with good break on the curve but no sign of control in site.

EE - a major league ready 3B who is going to be a star.

if the Os even ask for this from me as the Reds GM, I hang up the phone and have macphail's phone number blocked.

Krisky was quoted to say that he will never turn away any team even the Nationals after getting the shaft from Bowden. Although I have to think that If Cincy deals with Washington again it is going to have to have some garuntees attached to it or the trade will be canceled.

I personally have to agree with bsox21 EE, Bailey, Cueto and Votto is too much for the Reds to give up.

If this trade goes off as listed. Then who plays CF, 3B and 1b. Well ok Hatteberg can cover 1st for a year. Would this mean Keppinger plays 3b and Freel / Hopper in CF. I guess that would also depend on if Bruce is in the majors this year. Personally the Orioles are dumb for not taking Bailey, Cueto, and Votto in these deal alone.

Read comment number 69 on Prospect Insider....I asked Churchill, Encarnacion is just speculation between him and his source.

I'm honestly 100% okay with letting go of Morrow if the Mariners can real in Bedard. If we get Bedard, we have a full rotation, all 5 men. Morrow then becomes useless since we drafted him to turn him into a future starter. He poses no value to us since he has little control, has nothing more than a fastball, and is insanely inconsistent.

I don't get why there is so many personal attacks in this thread. It's useless.

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