Latest On Bedard/Mariners Talks

ok mets are a good trading partner...of the top of my head...joe smith...a couple pitchers probably humber and mulvey and gomez or martinez...not amazing...mariners cubs and cinci have better prospects

The Mets do not have what it takes to get Bedard, the O's want at least one if not two sure things and one maybe two decent prospects. The guy had over 10Ks per 9 innings, is lefty, pitched in the most explosive hitting divisons in all of baseball and DOMINATED. Then add the fact he is 3.5 millions for two years, they will get what they want...now or later.

Dear Omar,
I'd buy two Mets hats and [gulp] a Keith Hernandez jersey.
Sincerely,
Another frustrated M's fan.

The met's and amazing in the same sentence...I think the last time that occurred was the ny times came out and said its amazing the mets blew a 7 game lead halfway through september.

The M's are not a playoff team with Bedard. Our defense is average at best and if we lose Jones, it will be terrible. We may have Bedard, but we'd have no defense behind him.

Let's be honest, the M's are battling Cleveland, Detroit, Boston and NYY for the wild card and their chances are not good.

That wouldn't alleviate the problem that the M's still wouldn't contend in '08. Jones will be a very good player and under team control for a long time. The M's would be better off using Baek or Dickey as a no. 5 and let some contracts come off the books. Morrow or Ryan Rowland-Smith could be ready in '09.

that was a lot to swallow, but interesting.

Agreed. These talks are draaaaagggging on.

Yes, outfielders are a "dime a dozen" but outfield prospects such as Jones surely are not. I am fine with giving up Sherill but not Triunfel. Scouts are saying this kid could be a superstar quality player.

Betancourt does make the flashy play but from what I have seen, he rates slightly below average defensively. He has improved but considering how good Triunfel was at age 17, he could be the next A-Rod or Griffey when he makes it to the bigs.

Nice post darkstar. To sum it up a bit in laymans... The Mariners won 88 games last year with smoke and mirrors. Weaver, Ramirez, Baek and Feierabend did nothing but hurt this team and very much despite them, the Mariners had a successful year.

Adding Silva is going to be a huge improvement in itself over anything Weaver did. As it sits, the 5th spot is up for grabs with Morrow in the lead with a strong VWL showing. In fact Sean White also had a strong winter. Both guys are in the mix for a starting job.

I would be willing to put some money down that Silva and Morrow/White/Dickey would vastly outperform that Weaver/Horam disaster of last year. I think statistically Horacio Ramirez was the worst starting pitcher in baseball with at least 20 starts. How in the world he was allowed to start 20 games is another discussion

On topic though. These Bedard/Jones talks are getting a little tedious. I think it is because MacPhail is being stubborn while Bavasi knows he has the best available ML ready CF prospect in the game on the table and doesn't think he should have to give much more than that. Even though I think he is willing to do so. I do think MacPhail is starting to waiver with dropping his demand of Morrow and wanting Tillman in his place. Sherrill was seriously one of the best lefty setup men in 2007. But he could be replaced since Seattle has a glut of ML lefties at the moment.

All I do have to say is that Triunfel should not be discussed. AT ALL. He is a 17 year old phenom that will be playing AA this year. The comment about Betancourt having SS locked up is very true since Triunfel is going to outgrow SS before too long. He is projected more as a 3B type and Beltre is only signed for the next 2 years. When Beltre is a FA, Triunfel will be in his 19/20 year old season and could be ready to go at third in Seattle.

Its not that simply said. Of course EVERY team in baseball would love to have Bedard. That is a no-duh answer there. The problem is how much you trade for a guy that has openly rejected contract extensions and has a Boras type agent. I would bet my house that whatever happens with Bedard, whether he be traded or not, he will be testing the free agent market. So if you are Seattle you have to weigh if 2 years of Bedard is worth shelling out a handful of guys that would/could help this club out in a variety of areas over the next decade.

Bedard at the front and losing HoRam would be a giant improvement. Again, no-duh. But what will you be thinking when Bedard is gone and any number of Jones, Morrow, Tillman, Triunfel, etc. are becoming stars for the Baltimore Orioles? Especially since we aren't likely to win much even with Bedard. I can tell you most Mariner fans would think it a pretty stupid move in giving up a good portion of our home grown talent for what turned out to be a 2 year rental of a player.

“To sum it up a bit in laymans... The Mariners won 88 games last year with smoke and mirrors.”

…See, I think it depends on your idea of “Smoke and Mirrors”. Don’t completely disagree (as you can see from my post), but I gave many of those stats and refrained from commenting too much to point to a second option as well ~ it could actually be a well-orchestrated plan of smoke and mirrors! I know, I know ~ we are talking about Bavasi here… But think about it:

Seattle knows they cant actually take down Anaheim/Cleveland/Detroit/Boston/NewYork on any given day, the team is not talented enough to even try really. What they do know though, they aren’t as bad as they could be and have some real positives. Big factor to it ~ they play in the AL-W.

Look at Arizona last year, this team wasn’t anywhere near as good as others in the league, but they won ~ a lot! What they did was focus on being able to easily beat lesser teams and take advantage of the division they play in. NL-W is even easier to do so, LA/SD/SF are extreme pitchers parks with Col & Arz having big OFs you can take advantage of. AL-W isnt too different with Sea/Oak/Ana being pitchers parks with heavy air ocean air. If you focus on pitchers who can take advantage of that aspect as well as pitch atleast better then the lesser teams ~ well, then you can focus on winning all the games in the AL-W parks and against lesser teams while hoping to get a big enough percentage there without worrying about what you do against the top 4-5 teams. Worked great for Arz, almost worked for Sea… Trying out LgAvg-ish SP guys who are good enough to probably beat the weak teams consistently and fit the AL-W parks well but will get tore up by the top teams ~ well, that’s not that bad a strategy to out-perform your expected!

Build a rotation that will be equal to better than LgAvg in the AL-W parks and is equal to better then the weaker teams comparable starter ~ you have yourself 107 Games to get a good record out of. Since winning 90 possibly gets you in, you get yourself 65-75 wins in those near 110 Games and you can possibly reach it. Shoot, all you need is a near 500 record vs the top teams with about ½ the games in your park. Little bit of luck on your side, and youre in the playoffs!

BUT, its also Bavasi so I always have to leave that complete fluke probability open…

How would SIGNIFICANTLY improving the rotation, while keeping Wlad, Clement and Morrow "screw up the franchise?"