Santana Aftermath

I really think, as long as the either rival wasn't getting santanna and now the fact that he is going to the national league, both the yankees and the red sox decided to take the gamble that their cheap young talent would be enough in the future. And since neither one got him, both teams felt like they are still on even ground. Its much like the USA and the USSR if you think about it.
Also $20 million a year for a player that only plays once every five days seems a little ridiculous, especially since starters rarely ever finish the games they've started.

If this is true and the Yankees could have gotten Santana without moving HUghes then they are idiots. They are well behind the Red Sox staff right now and Johan would have evened that up. Im sure the SOx are content with Johan going to the Mets but the Yankees missed the boat if Kennedy/Cabrera/prospect was all it would have taken.

Tim,

Instead of it making the Yanks or Red Sox look fickle, to me it made Smith look just exactly like what he is, inexperienced. He wouldn't call anyone's bluff. He refused to call Santana's bluff that he wouldn't waive his NTC after ST started and he never called the Mets bluff to get Martinez into the deal. Smith got played at every angle and dealt the Twins a huge defeat.

I don't think it makes either team look fickle, the Twins had a shot at better deals with the Sox and Yanks than what they received from the Mets but they were being too greedy. Now, being backed into a corner they expect the same quality of players? The Sox and Yanks are too smart for that, of course they're going to try to get Santana on the cheap! Plus, as a Red Sox fan, Santana was more of a luxury than a need and since he went to the NL, who cares, as long as the Yanks didn't get him.

you know what's sad...
I am in Law School, and my professor is using the trade as an example, and completely ruining any joy i have over this deal.

Hmm, so when it is all said and done it looks like he'll sign for 6 years and about 21.5 million. Supposedly the Twins offered 5 years at $20 million per. Does anyone think he would have re-signed if the Twins offered him that 6th year at 20 million?

As a Twins fan, my guess would be no. Santana seemed pretty jaded with Minnesota after the Luis Castillo trade at the deadline last year, and with Hunter leaving this year, I think that sealed our fate...

First Garnett, now Santana...this has been a great year to be a Minnesota sports fan.

I don't bob klapisch has a clue here.

Everyone jus wants to ruin the mets and omar's parade.

no way the yankees said no to that. If so, Cashman and Co are morons.

Back at the winter meetings I stated in the end the Yankees will get Santana for Kennedy, Cabrera and a prospect or two. I was jumped all over by NRMAX88 and DARKSTAR, among others. It appears I was correct, if the idiot Yankee front office would've pulled the trigger. I heard the same exact offer from Buster Olney on 1050 ESPN Radio NY on the Max Kellerman show and Max almost blew a nut when he heard the Yankees didn't do that deal. Max Kellerman said, the Yankees wouldn't trade a future Mike Mussina for a Sandy Koufax. Yankees blew a monumentous opportunity here.

Fickle perhaps, but it seemed obvious that the offers placed by NYY and BOS were just 'cold war like' stances. I dont think either team wanted Santana in the first place. Lets just say that if after 4+ weeks and Smith couldnt get BOS or NYY to up their offers, then there wasnt legit interest in the first place.

I think its smart for them to have diluted their offersin the end - Cashman and Theo are very polished, experienced and have a very intelligent staff. I think they knew Smith had very few cards to play all along.

Why is it assumed these deal were even offered? To me this was all gamesmanship, Boston and NYY just wanted to drive the price up so the other team didn't get them. When it became apparent NY wasn't willing to give up that much to get Santana, Boston lowered their price and left the Twins with little choice.

This deal is still a real head-scratcher, and as a Mets fan I expected to wake up to find out the whole thing was a dream. All four of the prospects sent have major question marks.

Gomez should be an outstanding defensive player but who knows if he will hit; so far his career OPS in the minor leagues is .735. He's been promoted aggressively, so that's a little misleading, but he looks a lot like the next Coco Crisp to me.

Guerra is 19 years old and very far from the majors. I don't need to tell you guys about the attrition rate of pitchers this young; Guerra is probably twice as likely to hurt his arm as he is to become a top-of-rotation starter.

Mulvey is a so-so prospect; I don't think there's anyone on the planet who thinks Mulvey will be more than a #4 or #5 starter in a best-case scenario.

Humber had a pretty decent line in a tough pitching environment in New Orleans, but if he thinks New Orleans is tough wait until he gets a load of the AL Central. Maybe Humber could put up a sub-5.00 ERA for the Twins, who have gotten some good results from far less talented pitchers.

And that's it. I can sleep easily at night without those four players. Omar has strongly hinted that the Mets will go over-slot in the next draft, in which he has three high picks, so the Mets' admittedly barren farm system should get a nice boost.

Remember Roberto - you may have just taken the crown from gom712 of "stupidest remark of the day". Don't worry folks, there's still plenty of time left in the day!

Will people stop pretending this deal can be a win for both the Red Sox and Yankees?

The Yankees do not need and/or never wanted Santana? That is crazy talk. The Yankees needed Santana and it is pretty obvious they could have got him without Hughes.

The red Sox actually did not need Santana so this is fine for them. That is the big difference.

It looks like the Yankees could not afford him I agree. Good luck explaining that to the fanbase.

Tim, Not following your logic. If the Twins are asking the Yankees for a Kennedy led package why would you include Lester or Ellsbury in your offer if you are the Red Sox?

At first I was shocked, but after thinking about it, each team saw that the other wasn't interested any more, and as long as he was not in the division neither team cared. The sox have the same team that won them the world series, no holes really needed to be filled. i was shocked when they took the mets offer, but i guess with yanks and sox off the table, they really had no choice. i'm glad this is how it worked out. Bill Smith got screwed for his greed and I dont believe for one minute that this trade plays at all in the twins favor besides freeing up contract space. the mets got a free hall of famer.

walkoffblast - this deal is a win for both the Red Sox and Yankees. The Yankees may have wanted Santana, but they have plenty in the minor leagues and Kennedy may well become a very good pitcher. The fact that the Sox didn't get him makes it a win for the Yankees.

The Yankees can afford whoever they want. They have around 85 million dollars per year coming off their payroll at the end of this year, so it certainly was not because of money.

Remember Roberto - don't use quotation marks and then incorrectly recount what I said. It's a stupid statement. Since '02 Santana has never had an ERA over 3.33. Beckett posted a glorious 5.01 ERA just last year. Wanna convert that to ERA+? Since '02 Santana has had a btter one of those every year, except last year. Santana has also had more K's than Beckett in every year during that timeframe...with most of those coming when Beckett was in the NL.

Keep talking though, and maybe I'll grant you that coveted award.

Santana being described as "inferior" really made me laugh out loud.

Beckett is an excellent postseason pitcher, but overall statistics support Santana being the more proven pitcher.

Santana is a very good postseason pitcher himself.

Stats since 04:

20 IP
3 ER
20/5 K/BB
Record 1-1 (He went 8 innings in that loss, giving up only 2 runs)

That is a small sample, but he hasn't had the opporunity to pitch in as many big games as Beckett. Those stats do suggest that he could be dominant in the playoffs as well as the regular season.

RWS - Well done, I was going to bring that up too, but didn't want to bludgeon Remember Roberto with too many useful facts and statistics.

I guess I should get back to feverishly looking at my porn sites.

If I was the Yankees, I'd have done IPK, Melky and Tabata or really whoeveer prospect #3 was.

Giving up Melky now would hurt a lot more than when the first offer was out there because there are not the same options.

Still, I'd rather have Santana over Kennedy and Damon in CF, with Gardner as a 4th OF and defensive replacement.

I think the concern is just simply that Johan is showing signs of decline at the age when decline is to be expected, especially for a pitcher of his build.

He'd still be the ace of the staff and one of the best pitchers in MLB (he was about 10th last year in VORP) but is he worth 140 MM especially at the end of that deal?

Anytime you sign a pitcher to that type of contract, it is a risk. Still the Mets got a steal. 3 of those guys have good potential but are probably less than 50/50 bets. Mulvey is going to be an Ok, not great pitcher. IMO.

One note, the Yanks and Red Sox saw Santana pitch more. While everyone has scouts, do you think they were more pessimistic on his future based on that?

"With the Yankees not willing to meet the Twins asking price, the Red Sox weren't fickle, they were smart. They didn't have the need like the Mets or Yanks, and thus reduced their offer once the Yanks reduced theirs. Very smart move by Theo, tho I think the Yanks will be kicking themselves for not sending Kennedy, Melky and a good prospect for Santana."

Really though, why does everyone think 2006 happens all the time? Guys do not come out and kill it like Liriano, Verlander, etc. That was freakish year when rookies pitchers came out and killed it. Hughes, Kennedy and Joba will likely struggle a bit.

Nothing wrong with that mind you, but they aren't immune to growing pains.

To say the Yankees do not need Santana is a bit much. I'm sure Wang/Pettite/Joba/Johan/Hughes would make people wet their panties.

But of course, Kennedy was just too high of a price. Please, that rumor seems a bit off unless the Yankees truly had an issue with cash, which they never do.

I truly believe that had the Yankees had the opportunity to land Santana for Kennedy, Cabrera and a prospect, they would have done it.

What I think probably happened was Smith came in with the offer as a way to get the Yankees negotiating again, but Cashman didn't want to risk Smith going back to Theo and getting Boston involved yet again, so they declined. Nothing lost, nothing gained. Had Smith put a final offer on the table of Kennedy, Cabrera and another prospect, the Yanks would have jumped on it, but I don't think that was his intention.

Two problems here:
1. We don't know if it was a single prospect (Jackson?) or multiple prospects. That changes the look quite a bit to give up two major league ready players and a high upside prospect or two.
2. This isn't fickle. The CF market has all but dried up (safe Patterson who I like, but whatever). Moving Cabrera now necessitates playing Damon in CF for another season which kills the team's depth. Granted its for a Kennedy to Santana upgrade, but that has to be a consideration.

(Aside: Beckett isn't some postseason force going forward unless you believe he tries harder or something. He's been outstanding in the postseason in the past but its not a precursor of things to come.)

Joe, perhaps... But, no.

Even eight years ago (you have to give the kids time to develop), out of Baseball America's Top 20 that year you've had maybe five All-Stars (Vernon Wells, Rafael Furcal, Mark Mulder, Al Soriano, Josh Becket), a handful of solid guys and nothing guys. In the end, its about a 20, 40, 40 percentage, respectively. And that's just the Top 20.

Most teams are lucky to have one guy on that list, let alone their #3 or 5 guy. As you go deeper on the list, the less chance of a player making it.

Adam Dunn and Ben Sheets are the only two all-Stars in the 51 to 100 positions.

It's only gotten "better" because everyone thinks that their teams prospects RIGHT NOW will be good. Hope is a wonderful thing.

Give it time, MOST of the 2008 Top 10 Yankees and Red Sox (along with every other teams) prospects will only amount to part-time players or stiffs.

It's funny that each year all of us baseball fans drink the kool-aid, when its nothing more than warm Mountain Dew.

But it also becomes sad and reality sets in when Beckett or Wang go on the 60-day DL and Bucholtz or Kennedy have a 7.22 ERA.