Erik Bedard Trade Almost Done

5:31pm: Baker update: Sherrill made an appearance in Baltimore to take his physical this morning.  The O's may not need to examine the three young pitchers coming over.  Bedard has yet to fly out to Seattle but this thing should be done by week's end.  Meanwhile Jason Churchill (righthand sidebar of his site) is 100% convinced the trade will happen and expects an announcement soon.

3:53pm: Sean Welsh of the Baltimore Examiner says the deal could be completed soon but not finalized today.

12:47pm: Geoff Baker checks in, mostly to dismiss any rumor of Brian Roberts being added to the deal.  I hadn't heard that one from any legitimate outlet.

10:51am: The Sun has an update: this deal is nearing completion, pending physicals.  Jones is officially in Baltimore for his physical.  The deal may be announced later today.

MONDAY, 7:48am: This Baltimore Sun article was posted at 2:48am CST today. Jeff Zrebiec said no one's taken a physical yet, but "officials from both sides remain confident a deal can be reached."

SUNDAY, 10:43pm: John Hickey of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer says Adam Jones went to Baltimore today for that long-awaited physical.  Hickey says this physical is the only remaining impediment to the Mariners swapping Erik Bedard for Jones, George Sherrill, Tillman, Mickolio, and Butler.  Sounds like we might have an announcement on Monday or Tuesday.

SUNDAY, 11:39am: Larry Stone of the Seattle Times gives his take on the Erik Bedard situation.  The money quote:

All current indications are that, after all the histrionics of the past week, the Mariners and Orioles will really, truly, actually, once and for all, no turning back, no mulligans, no backing out, no passing go, get this trade done. But check back tomorrow, because nothing is for certain in this messed-up deal.

Stone also adds that Adam Jones was not in Baltimore for a physical on Friday, contrary to other reports.  He also gives some details about the three tall pitchers rumored to be part of the deal - Chris Tillman, Kam Mickolio, and Tony Butler.

Comments

[darkstar1661]

See, this kind of non-reporting reporting is what has fans expecting the deal to be sign/sealed/delivered at first whispers…

[gadamer]

I really hope -- for the sake of all things sane -- that both teams prosper from this belabored deal. I can't recall any deal in recent MLB history involving so much stuttering and stammering. I still perplexed by all how drawn out this has been, and for what reasons?

[XD23]

At some point, possibly, in the future, there might be a deal. Maybe.

Woot!

[thr33niL]

I think all comments should be turned off when another "Bedard/Seattle" rumor pops up. I mean. Is there really anything less to comment about? Except that this whole thing is the biggest cluster-F in recent memory.

Is there anyone on planet Earth that isn't sick of hearing about it. Do it or don't. Good god.

[amr120402]

This is off topic but what has anyone heard on Salcedo lately? Just read the rumor of him signing with the Indians is false? Anyone know anything?

[jdouble777]

If this deal goes down, the O's have then amassed an array of decent to good pitching prospects. Could this really work for them? Is there any outside shot that Angelos and McPhail have actually got this thing turned around? Or is this just simply instilling a false sense of hope in the fans to turn around ticket sales? And how could that really work, they have Roberts and Markais as that faces of the franchise... how early could they really press Jones and Weiters and franchise superstars?

[jdouble777]

So say this deal FINALLLLLY goes down...Santanna did actually get traded so there is hope. According to their need and luxuries they have actually filled most of those holes, but could they really ever compete again aganist the Yanks and Red Sox? Seriously? Then add the rest of MLB to that equation? Would it be safe to say that this franchise has offically became more of a Royals type than the Cubs, Tigers, or others that actually have potential?

[darkstar1661]

"This is off topic but what has anyone heard on Salcedo lately? Just read the rumor of him signing with the Indians is false? Anyone know anything?"

heard 2.9M and its in the final stage.

Of course, take it for what its worth...

[baseballismylyf4]

Stone can say what he wants about Jones, but from what I've heard from Orioles insiders at OriolesHangout, Jones was indeed in Baltimore to pass his physical. The report came from a source close to the Orioles, and it highly reliable (from what I've heard). I'll take it at face value.

[exitfare]

hahah "Orioles insiders" at Orioles Hangout.

[jdouble777]

True or not, we will not know (and are just speculating) until the contracts are signed. The impact might be a more prevalent issue? Obviously this is a long-term thing for the O's and short/maybe long-term thing for Seattle, who makes out the best? Why? I think more often than not, when you put all your eggs in one basket (Mariners) it could leave you empty handed? Then again, you could have 100 great prospects and none of them shine against big leg. talent.

[studio179]

The Erik Bedard saga. I would rather see football stories on a baseball site than any more of that story. Although, the next few days should finalize it for good.

A few hours from now should complete a very good sports year in 'Bean Town'.

[studio179]

"A few hours from now should complete a very good sports year in 'Bean Town'."

I stand corrected.

[Laputian]

O RLY?

[04Forever]

studio179, way to look silly on that one.

[exitfare]

typical arrogance of the current new england sports fan

[04Forever]

you can kiss my ass with that comment though exitfare, you didnt hear me or anyone else say the patriots were a lock and im a hardcore boston sports fan

[uww1]

ITS JUST A TEASE

[basemonkey]

wow, I've heard a lot of Boston fans jinxing themselves in the last week. Go figure that it actually comes true.

[Fish&Mets]

Didnt bedard to the M's happen before santana got traded to the mets? (sarcasm)

[nrmax88]

18 wins, and 1 GIANT loss. Couldnt help it.

[Sqweeek]

Who cares anymore. Nothing more should be posted about this until the deal is OFFICIAL and announced by McFail himself! Bedard should just do what Santana did and tell Baltimore if they don't deal him today he will not accept any trade (assuming he has a no-trade clause.....which he probably doesn't).

[jclay]

Does anyone know what is holding this deal up? I know the O's aren't trying to strike a deal after Bedard's agent shot that rumor down. So is it Angelos? Are they still haggling over the 4th and 5th players from the Mariners? Are they freaked out about the degenerative hip problem Jones supposedly has?

Somewhere along the line I lost track of what is actually holding this deal up. Seems like it works for both sides, so I don't know what they're waiting for.

[basemonkey]

Bedard is still under club control so he hasn't qualified for a NTC thru 10-5 Rule or a free agent contract.

[metafrantic]

I don't see how this latest update is different from all the others. This one is still "According to a league source". There's nothing "official" about Jones going for his physical, as stated in your update.

[zito4cyyoung]

Anyone think Brady is still feeling the pain of that sack on the last drive?

Brady is NO Montana!!!!

:)

[jdouble777]

Regarding the Super Bowl and Tom: Brady does actually have most Super Bowl Passing Records, Three Rings, and is FARR from done (and I have been a Redskins fan for 20 years, or since I was 5). Montanna and Brady are very comprable...Montanna did loose a game in every regular season he played in...as a matter of fact 3

Bedard Deal: Why is Truinfel not in this deal, did the O's not trade Tejada and create a glaring hole at short? Is Truinfel not top three SS prospects in baseball? Why not just Jones and Truinfel? Following the Astro trade they now have more pitching then they could possibly every need.

[04Forever]

"18 wins, and 1 GIANT loss. Couldnt help it."

lol nice. patriots didnt deserve it, what they did at supebowl 36 happened to them yesterday at 42, the overconfident team got humiliated.

Brady isnt Montana, Bradys not an alcoholic, but then again after last nights performance, granted most of it wasnt his fault, he should be

[studio179]

"studio179, way to look silly on that one."

LOL! Yeah, it seemed that way.

"typical arrogance of the current new england sports fan."

I posted a general comment. Let's not get all hyper and sensitive. I am a big time Cub fan and have no interest in the Patriots or Giants. To me, it is nice the Giants won. Also, it would have been nice to see the Patriots win. You get to see history happening either way.

[studio179]

I hope the M's FINALLY get Bedard. Someone...anyone make it happen.

[04Forever]

studio, are you willing to lose adam jones, there is alot of promise there with some patience...

[studio179]

I have no vested interest in Seattle. Like I said in an earlier post, I am a Cub fan. My interest is hoping this deal is done so the O's will not want Pie in a Roberts deal to the Cubs. I would like to have Roberts, but not give up Pie. Reports seem to indicate Pie would not be in a Roberts deal. Until it goes down, you never know. Angelos is fickle and could change his mind.

So my interest is once Bedard is delt, the Cubs hopefully trade for Roberts. He would be a good addition. I just want to have a fair value trade and not to overpay.

[The Globalizer]

I doubt a Roberts trade would include Pie, tho I'd love a Pie/Jones/Markakis outfield for the next 10 years.

I think Roberts for a back-end SP (Gallagher/Marshall), a middle infielder, and a prospect makes the most sense.

[basemonkey]

The Cubs need to make the Os a very good offer for Roberts' value to get him. There is thought that the Os could hold onto Roberts even after a Bedard trade a little longer. Roberts is much less an injury risk and more likely bet to continue his normal performance levels. If Cedeno and Murton are parts of any Roberts offer I doubt anything happens.

[studio179]

There is talk the O's could hang on to Roberts longer. I do not see the O's including Murton and I do not want the Cubs to include Cedeno.

"I think Roberts for a back-end SP (Gallagher/Marshall), a middle infielder, and a prospect makes the most sense."

I agree with that.

[crunchy1]

It seems to me that the Orioles would want to pick up a middle infielder like Cedeno or Patterson as part of a package. Luis Hernandez ( a .240 hitter in AA ) and Freddy Bynum would be one of the worst DP combinations in baseball. There is no way that Cedeno isn’t an upgrade over either one. Patterson would be another option if the O’s would be willing to put him at second and keep him there. You also have to think Gallagher or Marshall is involved. At first I thought Gallagher would be the choice but the trade with the Mariners makes it look like McPhail as a thing for tall, lean pitchers (they also drafted a lot of those types while he was here in Chicago). In that case, Marshall (6’7”) may be his target. The third piece of the puzzle is probably one of the Cubs top prospects: Closer prospects Jose Ceda or Jeff Smardizja, starter Donnie Veal, or OF’er Tyler Colvin.

[Aduncaroo]

Its not smardizja, I promise u that. They don't want to pay their major leaguers as much as he makes, and he may never even make the bigs. I think its veal or colvin

[crunchy1]

Aduncarro, good point on Smardijza. The most likely scenario to me is Colvin, Marshall (or Gallagher), and Cedeno. But…I’d rather give up Patterson because he’s blocked by more experienced players. Cedeno is our only back up SS and RH CF.

[basemonkey]

I know what u meant, crunchy but Luis is actually a very good glove SS. And he's a decent stopgap with a contact bat. Given the opportunity to add talent, I think drafting rules apply here. You get the best talent possible period. Let's not kid ourselves. The Orioles might realistically lose 100 games, with or without Cedeno. I don't think having Cedeno or not having him is going to offset the imperative to add maximum talent possible over having to fill a particular position. Patterson is a pretty solid choice though. Cedeno is a better player than Luis Hernandez but he's not sooo good that he's going to change the equation of what it would convince the Orioles to trade Roberts. To me the difference might be akin to Tony Tarasco vs. Luis Sojo.

[jdouble777]

I really wish people would value these players. Everyone wants to have the best deal possible for their team. Perhaps we should look at it this way, if you don't get Roberts then there is no way of getting a gold glove, '07 All-Star, .300 plus hitter at second base, period. Would that not be worth Pie and and pitcher, Marshall? I don't blame you guys for wanting everything a loosing nothing (or whatever you consider fair) but in all reality we are talking about the best 2nd Baseman (top 2, bottom line) in baseball, and for the record he is still young and cheap.

[crunchy1]

Basemonkey, while I don’t think Cedeno is without talent -- he did make BA’s top 100 a couple of years back – Patterson may be the better fit on the O’s. His offensive game is more polished than Cedeno’s. In fact, Patterson’s offensive game is similar to Roberts’ -- but it may take him a couple of years to reach that level…something the Cubs can’t afford to wait for. The ironic thing is I would think the Cubs would rather have Cedeno because he can help them now as a backup to both Theriot and Pie. I do think the O’s have stocked up on pitchers and could use a couple of young position players from the Cubs…that’s why Colvin and Patterson (or Cedeno) make sense to me. Marshall, physically at least, seems like McPhail’s type of pitcher. The deal would upgrade the athleticism in the O’s lineup…Colvin is the best athlete the Cubs have on the farm right now and Patterson may be second. If the Cubs won’t deal Pie, the O’s should demand Colvin in his place. There are some in our organization who think he’ll be the better long term player anyway…but, of course, like Patterson and Marshall, there is just no room in the lineup. At least not for the next two years -- which is exactly what the Cubs are building for right now.

[Aduncaroo]

There are a lot of yankee fans that will say cano is better than roberts...

I think its a pretty fair trade from the o's perspective to get colvin/marshall/patterson for roberts. I would give them the option of taking veal instead of marshall, as he is a higher ceiling guy but not ready like marshall is.

[Joe]

I like the idea of Marshall, Colvin, and Patterson. If you get the chance to replace Cedeno with Patterson, you have to do it. Patterson is also MLB ready. He could help the Cubs this year, too. Colvin is completely blocked, and so is Patterson once you get Roberts. They will probably want a pitcher.

[erbacaine]

Honestly Roberts is not much of an upgrade for the Cubs... makes you guys faster, but if Roberts is batting 2nd then DLEE has to take more pitches and that means he is less aggressive. Plus Roberts had a 2007...but his OBP in 2006 was .350 which is not that great.

His Offensive stats are basically the same to Derosa... and Defense at 2nd is basically the same as well.

It still leaves plenty of holes and question marks(theriot(hole), Pie(hole), Soto(?), Fukudome(?), backend of Rotation, Kerry Wood, and Marmol).

Not to mention a probable regression from Hill, marquis and Lilly.

Plus why would the O's want patterson... they are getting the best CF prospect in Jones... and patterson was beyond bad at 2nd base defense...which is why he was moved to the OF.

They certainly could use Murton because I think Murton will be better than luke Scott...

[jdouble777]

We want Pie, I want Pie, I don't really care who else comes, I don't know the Cubs farm system...I am currently familiarizing myself and I will take your word as far as the rest of the package. Pie, Jones, Markakis would give the O's a Niche in the least, and we have pitchers upon pitchers upon pitchers. I do like the Cubs pitching prospects mentioned...I don't know, I just really like Pie. And seriously, .290/12HRs/50SB .991 in 1330 Innings versus .984 in only 780 Innings .293/10HRs/1 SB DeRosa is also older

[Joe]

erbacaine,
Derosa will still get his AB when Lee, Ramirez, Roberts, Theriot, Fukudome, Pie, and Soriano get days off. Pretty much he plays every day except when the full lineup is there, or Soto gets a day off. He will still play a lot. Pie is not a hole, and he will be batting 8th. Soto has shown he can hit MLB pitching. Fukudome will be atleast what we had out of right field last year and that is worse case scenareo. Hill will not get worse, he probably will get better. Marmol and Wood are both staying in the bullpen, and one of them is going to be atleast an above average closer. Who dosen't have a question mark at the back of their rotation? Probably only 5 teams. Theriot is a league average shortstop. And if you prefer Cedeno to Patterson, Then you can take the worse player.

[jdouble777]

Roberts has also done this for a long time, whereas DeRosa was awful two his whole career untill two years ago... I don't know, I mean in all consideration I suppose they are somewhat close...
As a Cubs fan why would you be willing to loose all those players for the same player?

[darkstar1661]

The problem with all the ‘I think it would be fair if it was Marshall + Colvin + Patterson/Cedeno’ type stuff ~ "Fair" doesn’t equal even equal “good”; let alone "great". Truth is, if they shopped Roberts to all the teams around the MLB they would almost certainly get an equal to better package.

So, where "Fair" might seem, well, "Fair" to the wanting team ~ "Fair" hasn’t gotten it done yet and might never do so because its only “Fair”. Teams don’t trade guys they don’t need to trade for "fair" return ~ they do it for something approaching "great"…

[basemonkey]

You know personally, I actually might pass on Pie. Not saying he's not a great athlete. He is. Though I am not convinced of his strikezone skills. That kind of stuff is there from the beginning, before power even develops. It's a function of so many cursory skills in hitting a baseball not only just the eye. Pie has the wrist strength and batspeed. His lack of discipline makes him waste it though. He can probably develop better contact rates but I am not sure if the strikezone will improve as much as some folks think it will, especially since he'll be facing better quality breaking stuff in more advanced levels. It's not something you just ignore and cross your fingers to get better.

Colvin/marshall/patterson sounds like a solid package to me actually. It's slightly more of a quantity trade than any one that includes Pie would be but, these are quality prospects , and, this is a lot to expect when you're trading a 2B. Having SP talent come back for a middle infielder is nice everytime. That being said, I wouldn't mind swapping out Marshall with a bigger upside guy that's still in the minors, maybe even lower minors. The Orioles are starting to form a jam-packed Congo line to the majors now so we need some breathing room.

That being said, I personally am not against a trade of a guy like Jason Marquis and adding salary as well. I'm not sure how much Cubs fans value Marquis but if it helps them now I'd do it. The basic premise to me is that we help the Cubbies to win today, and, they help us to win tomorrow. THat means guys I'd be willing to back off on guys like Marshall and whoever in order to get some projectable prospects.

[studio179]

"Colvin/marshall/patterson sounds like a solid package to me actually."

Done deal.

[scribbletone]

I love how every Bedard post ends up being about Brian Roberts.

And can anyone else here back me and admit that Brian Roberts is not the player that most people on here make him out to be. He has posted TWO years with an OPS over .760. Just two. He has hit over .300 once. So he isnt a .300 hitter. He hadn't stolen more than 30 bases in a season before the past two seasons.

Everyone here seems so convinced that Roberts is an established commodity that they never really checked the numbers. He has had two good years ('05 and '07) and otherwise has been unimpressive. While he's more likely to repeat his '07 performance than not, this guy just plain isn't anything all that special. So he plays good defense at second base, how hard is that to find. Anyone that thinks he's worth Pie and more is crazy to me. This isn't about how good Pie is/will be, it's about how "not good" Roberts is.

Having said all that, I think there are two logical offers that could be made here: 1. Jason Marquis, Sean Marshall, Ronny Cedeno, 4th decent prospect. Have heard that the O's would be interested in someone to eat innings considering Bedard is gone. Seems possible but a deal would probably have to include Gallagher if Marquis is in there. I'd be shocked, but then again I've been shocked before. And the second, probably more likely, proposal: Tyler Colvin, Sean Marshall, Eric Patterson. Thats three quality young players, so I think the Orioles would have nothing to complain about if this offer was out there.

[Victor]

So, scribbletone, which 2B are better overall than Roberts? Utley for sure. Polanco? Probably. Kent? Maybe, but he's almost done. Johnson, Cano, Uggla, Phillips, Pedroia, Hudson... I don't think so.

Roberts is a top five 2B and arguably top three. That's why he's so valuable.

[GoBoSox420]

Cano > Roberts everyday of the week.

[darkstar1661]

Basemonkey,
“Colvin/marshall/patterson sounds like a solid package to me actually”
“Having SP talent come back for a middle infielder is nice everytime. That being said, I wouldn't mind swapping out Marshall with a bigger upside guy that's still in the minors”

I would imagine most GMs project Marshall in the pen going forward. His starting days are probably numbered and possibly behind him as soon as this year…

Patterson is being said to be a OF guy now, 2B seems like a longshot for the future. If the O’s are looking for Middle-Infield help, its doubtful to come from him.

Those two things leaves a Colvin + Marshall + Patterson package looking rather thin I imagine… Stuidos instant excitement over that stated package will probably clue you into that as well :)

[darkstar1661]

Scribble, check Roberts 2006 numbers before he got hurt. Before his run-in with Jeter, he was posting a near 400 OBP. In the end, 2006 saw him miss time to a fluke injury and obviously struggle at the plate late because of it yet he still ended up with LgAvg numbers... (98 OPS+) If not for the pain in Aug/Sept and the resulting .267/.304/.404 line, you can imagine what his 2006 stats would look like… (he did hit .299/.373/.414 in his 400PA otherwise, despite being injured for even half of that!)

As far as Cano vs Roberts? Cano equals very similar across board but with no speed. Not sure how that is “better any day of the week” ~ the two are very comparable and a strong argument could probably be made for either side.

[scribbletone]

Actually I would consider Utley, Cano, Phillips, Kent, and Polanco to be better. And don't forget about the expected improvements from young guys like Howie Kendrick, Rickie Weeks, Ian Kinsler and Aaron Hill. Kendrick and Weeks could be better than Roberts THIS YEAR. I think he's arguably a top five 2B and is definately in the top 8-9. But that doesn't mean he's worth Pie and prospects. Maybe if the Cubs had a retarded monkey at second, but Mark DeRosa is actually a very competant. When its not a huge need, then Roberts becomes far less valuable.

I feel like the numbers I threw out there were decently sufficient evidence that Roberts is a good 2B, but not a great one. He should be treated accordingly.

[basemonkey]

Yeh, I sort of know that, Dark. I guess I am just tapped out from all the "Roberts Wars" with Cubs fans here that I knew that if I threw up any resistence whatsoever then it would be inviting an instant 100 posts to convince me otherwise.

The truth of the matter is that Pie and Gallagher are what would convince the Os immediately. The Cubs would start with Gallagher but shy away from dealing Pie. So, at the end of the day the Orioles questions will be determined by roster slots left over, and, if any of the Cubs' extra pieces will fill a number of holes. Based on recent rumors of conversations with agents for Lohse and Trachsel, I have a sneaking suspicion that Marquis might be in the mix there just for his innings. We'd probably eat a ton of his salary since it's deemed slightly on the bad value side of things because of his backloaded contract, which could cut into how much value gets swapped. Though a ML SP will cut into what the Cubs have to give up in upside.

[studio179]

"Stuidos instant excitement over that stated package will probably clue you into that as well :)"

Thanks for raining on an already wet day. :) It would be a different package I would think.

[Sesshomaru]

You aren't making yourself look too intelligent, scribble. You say he's arguably a top 5 2B, yet you are naming every second baseman you can think of that is better than him. Roberts is an elite second baseman and is also all-star worthy. He has gold glove caliber defense at second as well and as darkstar said, his stats suffered in 2006 only because of his injury. Kent is NOT better than Roberts. Polanco? Don't make me laugh.

Roberts (7 seasons) - 10 or more homeruns in three straight years, 42 or more doubles in three of last four years, more than 25 steals in four straight seasons. Scored 100 runs in two of last four seasons *for a horrible offensive team*.

Polanco (10 seasons)- only hit 30 doubles in three seasons, more than 10 homeruns in two seasons, at least 10 steals in only two seasons. Scored 100 runs only once.

Neither player has ever struck out 100 times in a season. Career OBP and SLG are nearly identical with Polanco clearly ahead in BA and Roberts is *clearly* the better second baseman.

[Sesshomaru]

You aren't making yourself look too intelligent, scribble. You say he's arguably a top 5 2B, yet you are naming every second baseman you can think of that is better than him. Roberts is an elite second baseman and is also all-star worthy. He has gold glove caliber defense at second as well and as darkstar said, his stats suffered in 2006 only because of his injury. Kent is NOT better than Roberts. Polanco? Don't make me laugh.

Roberts (7 seasons) - 10 or more homeruns in three straight years, 42 or more doubles in three of last four years, more than 25 steals in four straight seasons. Scored 100 runs in two of last four seasons *for a horrible offensive team*.

Polanco (10 seasons)- only hit 30 doubles in three seasons, more than 10 homeruns in two seasons, at least 10 steals in only two seasons. Scored 100 runs only once.

Neither player has ever struck out 100 times in a season. Career OBP and SLG are nearly identical with Polanco clearly ahead in BA and Roberts is *clearly* the better second baseman.

[basemonkey]

Just out of curiosity. Yes, the Orioles are methodic and slow whenever Peter Angelos is involved. Though the big difference today is that he's not really that much involved in the Orioles except in the bigger deals like this current one. The media makes it out to be worse than it is, but, I was wondering what is the Mariners' reputation on this front? Is Bavasi's regime supposed to be slow?

The Orioles have conducted a number of trades in the past several years and nothing's ever been as slow as what we're seeing now. This is to the point of absurd.

[basemonkey]

I've seen this road before and I'm gonna step out and just watch cus I know it is a circle.

[basemonkey]

Erik,
It's been great to see you develop. I'll be rooting for you in Seattle. I am an Orioles fan but I am also an Erik Bedard fan. Good luck to the kid with the golden arm. Erik is one of those rare stories of a phenom who came through. The road has been rocky but I never doubted it that you'd get there. We've got arguments left and right, but anyone who's ever seen this kid pitch knows he's special the very first instant.

[Sesshomaru]

And Roberts plays more games a year than Polanco. Polanco has never played 150 games in any season and Roberts has twice in the last four seasons and twice only because of the injury he sustained. I can't believe how ridiculous that claim is, Polanco better than Roberts. Laughable.

[crunchy1]

The thing is the Cubs don't need Roberts. They're good enough to win the NL with DeRosa at second. The Sporting News just ranked the Cubs defense as the 5th best in baseball as it is. They're not going to create a hole or mortgage the farm for an upgrade at 2nd base-- as good as Roberts is. If the price gets too high, Hendry will walk away and know he still has a team that's good enough to win. McPhail will ask for all the Cubs best prospects -- that's his job-- but in the end, just like the Mariners deal, these negotiations will settle at a fair market value or they won't get done at all.

[studio179]

Well said, base. We all have our favorite players we don't like to see leave as a FA, traded, or retire. I think the worse is our favorite great player become bad before they should have retired.

[crunchy1]

I meant Cubs infield as 5th best - not defense. Whoops.

[Sesshomaru]

I echo basemonkey's statements as well. I almost called you BM for short, but realized that probably isn't a good nick for you. lol

Yes, crunchy. Personally, I don't feel too good about Marshall in the AL East for some reason. He'd be *maybe* a #5 starter. Is there no way Patterson could move back to second base and work on his defensive skills? From what his MiL offensive stats suggest, he is at least comperable to Roberts in that reguard. If Patterson could move back to second base, Colvin/Veal/Patterson would be nice. Am I wrong about Marshall?

[crunchy1]

It's hard to say on Marshall. He throws around 90 and has a good curve ball in his own right -- not as good as Hill's but he strikes out about 6 per 9 innings. I personally went to a game where he pitched a 2 hitter. He's had some dominant games. If you look at him, you realize he's rail thin and he could get stronger. The main issue is he hasn't shown to be durable. Personally, I like Gallagher, he's about a 3rd starter type. But he isn't going to get much better and may not be as enticing to McPhail. I think if it came down to it, the Cubs would trade Gallagher. I was just speculating that McPhail may like Marshall because of his long, pitchers type body.
As for Patterson, I think part of the reason he moved from 2nd was to make him more versatile -- after the acquisition of DeRosa, it was his ticket to the big leagues -- for now. He just missed the Cubs top 10 this year so it isn't like he's fallen off the earth. As for his defense improving, I think he would do it if you put him at 2nd and left him there -- but I don't see him being any better than Todd Walker with better range. It depends on how much your willing to live with to get a plus offensive 2nd baseman with speed. Veal has more upside than Gallagher or Marshall. His ceiling is believed to be as a #2 starter. He throws harder and his breaking ball - if he can command it - will be better than either as well. I think Colvin, Veal, and Patterson would be a nice haul. That would be 3 of the Cubs top dozen or so prospects. But I have the same feeling as basemonkey. I think Marquis finds his way into this deal...

[basemonkey]

I don't dislike Marquis. I would be fine with Marquis. That being said, Marquis will get hammered in the AL East. I understand that some of you believe that the AL East thing is mostly hype, but it's just not true. I don't necessarily think the difference is felt on the average AL 3-4 hitters. Most NL lineups have comparable 3-4 type batters. I think the major differences between the leagues is in the 5-6-7-8-9 hitters. The fact of the matter is that on an AL club, our benches are places where players get buried and you can go a long time and never see a bench player pick up a bat. In an NL game, you will see switches once per game and over a long period of time, those bench guys become very important. For this reason the AL has a lot more flexibility to collect pretty one-dimensional players, guys who can hit at least. I am just suggesting that the real impact is felt during those slots. In the NL you keep certain kinds of players and give them playing time in those slots because you make tradeoffs of their overall game. It makes a big difference when you're stringing a single or two together to flip the lineup.

[DentalPlan]

Brian Roberts isn't even better than Brandon Phillips, much less a Top 3 2nd baseman.

I don't understand why the Bedard trade is taking so long. Look at how quickly the Santana trade was done. It takes, what three weeks, for these guys to take their physicals? Give me a break.

[basemonkey]

Another point is that in the NL, you have a similarly deeper bullpen than average AL clubs. On an AL team you can have plenty of guys in there who never get any innings (at all!). I am just willing to bet that a NL bullpen needs to plan in advance to anticipate for all of the double sitches and innings that needs to get spread around. For this reason, you have many batters in the NL who are more likely to face quality RPs in disadvantageous matchups. Or at least that is my take.

[basemonkey]

Santana's trade took pretty much just as long.

[darkstar1661]

“Am I wrong about Marshall?”

In a word ~ No. If you would like more than a word though…

Marshall’s 2007 season:
07 First 5 starts ~ 1.000 WHIP, 7 BB - 27 K, 2.12 ERA, 5.2 IP per start
07 Next 7 starts ~ 1.486 WHIP, 15 BB - 21 K, 4.04 ERA, 5 IP per start
07 Final 7 starts ~ 1.628 WHIP, 11 BB - 16 K, 6.03 ERA, 4.1 IP per start

07 Total after 5 GS ~ 1.576 WHIP, 26 BB - 37 K, 5.05 ERA, 4.2 IP per start (14 GS)

Marshall’s 2006 season:
06 First 5 starts ~ 0.872 WHIP, 8 BB - 20 K, 3.45 ERA, 5.2 IP per start
06 Next 7 starts ~ 1.591 WHIP, 22 BB - 27 K, 5.17 ERA, 5.2 IP per start
06 Next 7 starts ~ 1.750 WHIP, 16 BB - 20 K, 6.00 ERA, 5.1 IP per start
06 Final 5 starts ~ 1.853 WHIP, 13 BB - 10 K, 8.34 ERA, 4.2 IP per start

06 Total after 5 GS ~ 1.711 WHIP, 51 BB - 57 K, 6.22 ERA, 5.1 IP per start (19GS)
…Notice a pattern?

Marshall should really be a leftie set-up at this point, and I imagine he could be a very good one. But if you are looking for a starter, this probably isnt the guy you should be checking out. I’m actually surprised the Cubs haven’t made a permanent BP move on him yet…

[darkstar1661]

"I don't dislike Marquis. I would be fine with Marquis."

On an AL-E team? SOunds like famous last words ~ hehehe...

"Thanks for raining on an already wet day. :) "

...Sorry Studio! :D

[scribbletone]

"You aren't making yourself look too intelligent, scribble. You say he's arguably a top 5 2B, yet you are naming every second baseman you can think of that is better than him. "

I think its a fair argument that Brandon Phillips could be as helpful to a team as Roberts. He is clearly the superior power threat and is capable of stealing nearly as many bases. He may not have the plate discipline or as good a fielder but I think they're in the same tier. Same can be said for Polanco. Maybe saying they're better was an exaggeration, but to be fair there isn't a whole lot that separates the 2nd and 7th best second baseman in baseball. There is really only one elite second baseman (Utley) and a bunch of very good ones. And when you consider that, is it worth the upgrade from a Cubs standpoint to go from having a good second baseman to having a very good one. To me, it'd make more sense to persue a shortstop to take Theriot out of the lineup. Too bad there aren't any top notch switch hitting lead off shortstops out there.

[crunchy1]

The other option is to put Marshall on a strength and endurance plan. He starts off strong and runs out of gas. He's a tall skinny kid. I'd try that first before I moved him to the bullpen.

[Donny A]

i dont want to come off as an ass hole or anything, but why does it seem that every time there is a erik bedard post, the majority of the posts are about brian roberts and the cubs. it doesnt bother me at all just wanted to know why that is. tim you should just make a brian roberts message board post. just say in the post that this is where the brian roberts comments go.

[crunchy1]

The reason is that with the traded players decided, the Bedard deal is anti-climactic. It's not really a rumor that people can speculate upon or chime in with opinions. The deal along with it's parameters has been discussed at length. What seems most interesting at this point, is the implications of this deal on future Oriole deals and the next step in Baltimore's rebuilding project. The next logical step seems to be Brian Roberts - with the Cubs as the main suitors. This is a rumor site, people want to move on to what's coming - or, more accurately, what MIGHT be coming next. It's what keeps everybody checking in.

[scribbletone]

Good point. Thats why this site isn't called MLB Trade News. The fact that everyone can speculate and argue over trade proposals and such is one of the best features of the site.

[Aduncaroo]

I agree crunchy, thats pretty much exactly the reason. That and there are a lot of excited Cubs fans right now!

So, if you would rather have a younger guy with more upside than Marshall but isn't quite ready, Veal is your man. As I stated, that means a trade of Colvin\Veal\Patterson should be very appealing to Baltimore.

Dark, that deal hasn't been shot down at all, probably because it hasn't been offered. The reported offer was Gallagher\Cedeno\and someone else, right? Well this is giving Colvin instead of Gallagher, Patterson instead of Cedeno, and Veal instead of whoever else. Veal probably has more "upside" than Gallagher, although that is very arguable. But thats what the scouts say...so...

Anyway, Colvin is a legit prospect, and is projected to be a pretty good outfielder and also the best all around athlete in the system...

What I'm trying to say here is that this deal would benefit both sides immensely. Colvin is good, but is also blocked for awhile, and will probably be ready by 09, 10 and the latest. Veal, if he pans out, is a legit starter in any rotation by 10. Patterson projects to Roberts offensively, but defense is where he needs the work. He was blocked with the Cubs, and that, at least as much if not more, was the reason he was been playing OF lately.

[Aduncaroo]

not saying Patterson didn't need work at 2B, he was bad. But, with improvement he could be better, and the Orioles have the time to see if he can do that. If not, he projects to be a 4th outfielder who can hit and steal a ton of bases, so thats not a bad plan B either.

[studio179]

At some point last year I was thinking the same thing about Marshall. He needs a better conditioning program. He runs out of gas and taxes the pen quite a lot of his starts. I saw too many 5 inning and some 6 inning starts. I still like his make up. The thing is his good performances are solid and he keeps you in that game. His bad starts, he gets blown up and his stats look as posted above. Like crunchy posted, I would like to see him improve his endurance first. If that does not work, then move him to the pen.

[hawkeye26]

I feel that this trade will not include Patterson for the main reason , how are Orioles fans going to feel since the Orioles traded for one Patterson from the Cubs and he was average at best . Then the Orioles follow it up by trading for another Patterson from the Cubs . To me it shouldn't matter , but in the back of your mind it does .After gladly watching Cory traded off the Cub fans have been feeling uneasy about putting much faith in his younger brother .Would trading for another Patterson be a bad PR move ?

[basemonkey]

Based on radio talk I sort of have a feeling that there's a pretty decent chance that Roberts is kept thru the trading deadline. He'll build up trade value to be a leadoff man contending teams trade for.

[basemonkey]

But that's based on a hunch based on the local rumor mill so take it for what it's worth. ;)

[canadian_rocket17]

It's too bad to see this coming to an end. I have a whole section on my blog (http://tbcmariners.blogspot.com/) for Bedard. Oh well. I guess it's a good thing to finally end this. I just hope Bavasi knows what he is doing giving up five players like that.

[hawkeye26]

The thing that bothers me that no one has brought up is that in past years the Cubs should be playing for the now and stop holding onto the "what if " rookies or prospects . In years past I have agreed . But this year is like no other season for the Cubs because they shouldn't be playing for all the chips this year , unless they seem to be the favorites at the all star break . Every player that is a main contributor in 08 will be back in 09 . Zambrano , Lilly ,Marmol ,Hill , Lee , Ramirez , Soto ,Theriot ,Derosa ,and Pie . So in reality , why make a move to trade away what could be important chips at the July trade deadline or next winter when everyone is due back in 09 and maybe 2010 . Sure trading for Roberts will improve the team , but much like how the Orioles don't have to be in a rush to trade away Roberts ...the Cubs don't have to rush to gamble the future . Thats why the Cubs should not rush out to make this a world series champ just yet . If Roberts can be had with a decent trade ,then jump on it . Trading more than two prospects for him should not be done .Who knows where the Cubs might be in July .Maybe the Cubs are struggling in July , maybe all the pieces do come together .Who would have thought Soto would have made that big jump last year .Could Cedeno , Marshall ,Gallagher ,Veal make that jump as well ?

[hawkeye26]

If Gallagher , Patterson (or)Cedeno , and Marquis (or) Dempster won't get it done ....don't do it .

[jdouble777]

Cubs fans, unite, Roberts will bat .300, let nothing get bye gim, and steal 40 or more bases, while hitting 15 homers and making the all-star team...he is the lead-off batter you need to be the one of the best team in baseball. We Want Pie. I don't think there is anything you all can do, but together...maybe. I know that we will suck this year, but Pie with Jones and Marky Mark make things interesting... You all compete, win the NL, suprise everyone, and maybe sang a World Series, we have some fun for a while... Give Us Pie!!!

[Sesshomaru]

Fair enough scribble, but I think no matter what team you are, when you add an all-star second baseman to your roster, you are a better team. I think when you are talking about the top five second basemen in baseball, Roberts' name will come up more times than not. Having a lead-off man that can get on base and turn a single into a double most of the time changes the game and puts the pressure on right away. Stuff like that can lead to multiple run first innings especially considering who would be hitting behind him in the order. I think the Cubs would do well with that and gives opposing teams another reason to be afraid of their lineup. Soriano could be moved down so his power is more productive plus you have DeRosa who you can use to give just about anyone a day off and not think twice about it. I think DeRosa is much more valuble to the team that way.

I think the reason Roberts is brought up in the Bedard post is because people are tired of talking about Bedard and are ready to move on to what will happen with Roberts, that's all. This thing has been dragged out way too long.

I do think we are getting a great haul from Bedard although I would have liked to have gotten Triunfel. I was only expecting to get four players for Erik, so five is great. If you count Jones, that's three of Seattle's top ten plus Sherrill and Mickolio. Kam's stats in triple-A look very promising.

[thr33niL]

This is hilarious. Every single Bedard rumor comment section turns into a "Roberts to the Cubs" discussion. You people sure know how to stay on topic.

[thr33niL]

The Orioles are getting a better deal that the Twins got for Santana. That said, The O's are getting the better side of the trade. Only thing that makes it not so bad for Mariners fans is that we are getting Erik Freakin Bedard to head our rotation.

Fans will only call for Bavasi's head if Bedard goes down with injuries and makes the trade a potential horrific one. As it is, if Bedard doesn't re-sign or if the Mariners don't make a strong playoff run during his guaranteed 2 years in Seattle, it will still be a bad deal for Seattle.

Right now, it looks to be a win-win with the Orioles coming away with more talent that they should have. Bavasi basically bid against himself and got Bedard at all costs. At least he didn't give up more premium outside of Jones and Tillman.

[DentalPlan]

Once the players were decided on in the Santana trade, it didn't take anywhere near this long.

"Cubs fans, unite, Roberts will bat .300, let nothing get bye gim, and steal 40 or more bases, while hitting 15 homers and making the all-star team..."

Thank you for your input, Mrs. Roberts. Roberts is not a consistent .300 hitter, I bet he doesn't hit that - he's only hit over .300 once and that was his huge outlier year. He's only stolen over 40 bases once as well. He's average defensively.

[crunchy1]

We don't need Roberts to "compete". We already did without him. We don't need him to "win" - we won the NL Central without him and we are among the favorites to win it this year too. If the Cubs don't win this year, it won't be because DeRosa is playing 2nd base. So why give up our starting CF?

[basemonkey]

Crunch,
I think the question is not so much about simply competing. I am assuming that the question is being able to advance in the playoffs. For pennant teams, just taking the flag is not enough. What difference does it make if you get to the playoffs consistently, and for whatever reasons, only to fail to advance? I think it is smart that whatever deficiencies you identify from getting to the playoffs, you address and strengthen weaknesses when you can, while your window of opportunity is still open. Considering the challenge that peak years, rising/fading stars, and contracts/budgets present, believing that such a window will be perpetually open for that one day when all of your prospects come thru at the same time while your stars are in their prime is a high risk endeavor itself. And, not realistic either.

[basemonkey]

That being said, I understand that the price for Roberts might seem high, but, we have to see it relative to the rest of baseball. The Cubs right now have an okay system but not especially deep. Good prospects up top but depth fades around #8-10 or so. It isn't an indictment against the Cubs system at all. It makes it somewhere in the middle of baseball farms (Keep in mind that a good draft here or there makes a difference in farm rankings every season though). That being said, if the Cubs say that they won't trade Pie (which is valid), then what they have left is either a mixture of decent prospects or borderline ML players in exchange for an All-Star 2B. Make the argument against Roberts all you may want but no one here is questioning that he is a legit ML player. We end up arguing degree of player, not of kind.

The prospects that the Cubs are offering for Roberts end up being closer to the Fontenot, Hairston, Patterson range of value.

[basemonkey]

ANd I'm of the camp that I think the Orioles would be fine with just one eventual ML player coming back. He doesn't have to be a star at all, just a solid guy.