Odds and Ends: Hardy, Darvish, PECOTA

Nice to see the snow has stopped in Illinois.  Here are some random links for today...

• Nick Cafardo notes that Paul Konerko receives 10-and-5 status on April 30th, and wonders whether some trade rumors will fly leading up to that date.
• No progress has been made on a multiyear deal for J.J. Hardy.  As far as multiyear deals for young Brewers, Corey Hart seems the most feasible.
• Peter Gammons believes a posting fee for phenom Yu Darvish could exceed $100MM.  It's a fun idea, but the Nippon Ham Fighters probably won't want to post him anytime soon.  We wrote a bit about him on January 1st, spurred by a report of the Yankees' interest.
• RotoAuthority has some fun with the new PECOTA projections, looking at starters expected to have sub-4.00 ERAs.
• Funny moment in baseball card history.
• The Pirates' approach toward free agents this year: determine their worth, and then don't exceed that amount.

Comments

[ReardenTech]

I don't care if Darvish hits 50 home runs and compiles a 1.25 ERA. NO ONE is worth paying $100 million just to talk.

[Devlsh]

So Hill and Marmol are projected to have ERAs over 4.00? Is that what PECOTA predicts?

[darkstar1661]

"So Hill and Marmol are projected to have ERAs over 4.00? Is that what PECOTA predicts?"

Yeah, 4.02 (Hill) and 4.06 (Marmol)

and I agree with Reardentech! 100M??? Wow...

[Fish&Mets]

and to think i used to respect peter gammons...

I hope this is just an attempt to his team to offer him up. NO WAY anyone gives 100 mil to talk.... That total contract would be much higher than Santana's for a pitcher who has never even stepped foot on American soil let alone thrown an MLB pitch.

[Fish&Mets]

darkstar is there a complete list we can see?

[bsox21]

21 yr, with great command of 94 mph heat don't become free agents, which is why 100 mil isnt as crazy as it sounds.

Guys like this don't make free agency at all anymore. The only way to develop a pitcher like this is to develop them internally, which is extremely difficult to do.

He needs a change up, but at 6-5, 94 mph gas with good command and a wicked slider are enuf to be a good #3. If he adds the change, this kid could be an ace.

[mike]

i dont care if you have command of a 94 mph fastball or not. 100 million dollar posting fee just for an unproven young kid is nuts. sure its tough to develop an ace within your own farm system but this kid is far from a sure thing. any team can sign a pitcher considered a tough sign probably with just as good stuff or even better in the draft for a lot cheaper than 100 million. it would be smarter to throw 5-10 million at a tough sign draftee and develop him yourself instead of just paying 100 million to just talk to a kid. everyone though the sox were insane for posting just over 50 million for dice k but at least dice k showed he could perform over a period of time and now we are talking about double the posting fee for an unproven kid. if any team posts 100 million for one player good luck with that. i would set aside that kind of money and totally restock a teams farm system and make it amazing.

[ReardenTech]

Mike, my thoughts exactly. If you have $100MM to burn on one unproven player, why not spend it around among proven Major League talent right now?

[darkstar1661]

Fish&Mets,

Yeah, but you have to pay for it... I imagine most fans have posted the info on their teams respective boards though, if you are looking for specifics you can probably google it and find what you want...

[Swishermvp]

Keep your eye on what the White Sox do next. If they get Coco Crisp for center, there plan might be to move Swisher to 1st. Then they can move Konerko.

[jza1218]

If you like the Billy Ripken card, then you have to own this t-shirt.

http://www.nomas-nyc.com/product_fuckface.html

[beauhoopman]

What would the return for Konerko be?

[b_diddy_7]

Or how about investing 100M on the draft and internat'l market? You're bound to land a few studs instead of just one.

[bsox21]

Well, some draft pick doesn't come with a built in internation fan base, movie star good looks and the guarantee that u have a major league caliber star.

You say he's "unproven", but at 21, he's DOMINATING in Japan which is at least as good as Triple A. He isn't doing it with smoke and mirrors either. The kid throws mid 90s, is 6-5 and has a normal pitching motion.....no deception crap goin on here.

You'd be tapping into the Iranian market as well, as he's developing a fan base there too.

Look at the 1st round of every draft for the past 20 years. That will tell you all you need to know about how difficult it is to develop talent. This kid comes ready to go, out of the box with NASTY stuff for a kid his age.

Like I said, he's gona need a change up if he's going to dominate here, but even without it, he'd be a v good #3. At 21, he's already broken the 200 innning barrier. Look around major league baseball, and try to find a 21 yr old with mid 90s gas who has thrown 200 innings.

Yep, there's Felix and there's nobody.

[darkstar1661]

Interesting Bsox21...

So you would really pay 100M to talk to the guy for 30 days? Then *if* you come to an agreement with him, you maybe get him for something similar to what Matsuzaka got (6/52M). Overall, you end up paying 152M (more money and one less year than what Johan just got) for 6 years of a pitcher who has never pitched in a ML (or even US MiL game). Seriously, you’d do that?

[BxSquad]

bosox21, stop typing please.

pay 100 mil to talk with the guy, then he wants more than dice k, thats like 170 mil, why not sign someone like cc sabathia..?

im pretty sure you don't have 100$, so you would not know what to do with 100 million.

[jza1218]

" You say he's "unproven", but at 21, he's DOMINATING in Japan which is at least as good as Triple A. He isn't doing it with smoke and mirrors either. The kid throws mid 90s, is 6-5 and has a normal pitching motion.....no deception crap goin on here."

Bosox,

So you'd sign a 21 year old pitcher who's dominating in AAA $100 Million too?

[rockraines]

Return for Konerko? You would hope that he would bring either a decent young hurler with fleas, or a couple of almost MLB ready but not top shelf prospects. Althogh his contract is extremely affordable, he is aging and has a bad back. He wont bring studs, but should bring I would say about what a return for Roberts gets, maybe a little more. Figgins and Santana from the Angels looks to be somewhat even, although it wouldnt happen thats the value I would be looking for.