Oliver Perez Could Sign Long-Term

There seems a sliver of a chance that the Mets hammer out a long-term deal with starter Oliver Perez.  The much more likely scenario is a one-year agreement.  The Mets and Scott Boras have one more week before their scheduled hearing.  This would be over $1.775MM, and the first hearing in the organization in 15 years.

Perez, a 26 year-old southpaw, enters his walk year with a possible $50MM+ contract in the balance.  The word to describe his '07 season would be erratic, though the final numbers came out fine.  Perez flashed both elite and terrible control, sometimes in consecutive months.

Comments

[stellar]

With the uncertainty surrounding Pedro, Pelfrey, and El Duque, I'd be much more comfortable knowing that Perez was going to be around past this season. Not that he doesn't come with his own uncertainty.... but still...

Having to replace 3/5s of your starting rotation in a single offseason is a scary thought. That's not really something that championship-caliber teams have to do.

[BigScooter]

Forget Perez's control fluctuating month to month, there were times it fluctuated inning to inning. This will be a very interesting deal. How do you value a guy that has had 1 great, 1 good and 4 bad years? It's easy if the good ones are consecutive, but 2004 and 2007, with time spent in the minors in between? No idea. And Boras doesn't help. Could Perez get 4 years $60mm? Remember Silva got $48mm for 4.

[start_wearing_purple]

Well, as was mentioned here before, Silva raised the bar for mediocrity and Perez is arguably better than Silva. If Perez puts up a mediocre year, Boras can likely still get him a 5 year $60M contract. If he has a year that amtches his 2004 season and we're pushing into the 6 year $90M range.

[FineHamAbounds]

Well, given his track record, a long term deal should eventually pay off in 2010, as he seems to go bad-bad-good, bad-bad-good year-by-year.

His ERA and record since his rookie year:
2002: 3.50, 4-5
2003: 5.47, 4-10
2004: 2.98, 12-10
2005: 5.85, 7-5
2006: 6.55, 3-13
2007: 3.56, 15-10

[corbin]

Rookie ERA of 3.50 is bad now? Hmm...

[FineHamAbounds]

Eh, you are right about that. His rookie year wasn't too bad, really, but he's still only had 2 really good seasons, and he's pretty inconsistent.

[themetros]

Perez will still be worth tons of cash if he puts up a 4.25 ERA. Pitchers are obviously expensive and Perez is still young, which is a big plus.

Basically, a four year $48 million would be extremely fair. He can pitch in the AL and succeed based on his ability to dominate with his stuff so he will draw widespread interest.

Get this one done.

[themetros]

That would be a four year deal ontop of whatever they hammer out for this year. I do not want him to get $12mm this season. Figure $7mm for this season bringing the total to five years and $55 million ideally.

[BigScooter]

$55mm over five for Perez? So you think he is essentially worth less than Silva? I think we'll learn the answer this year. If he puts up a 5+ ERA you're probably right, but if he puts up something under 4.00 again, that's gonna probably get him to the $90mm for 6 that start_wearing_purple was talking about.

[themetros]

I think Silva is overpaid.

I think given the unpredictability of Oliver, you cannot hand him over $15mm a year right now.

Oliver takes less in exchange for certainty and tons of cash now. You cannot have it both ways.

If the passes and goes to arb, the Mets will be in on him in the off-season, but the bidding could get crazy with another 3.60 or so ERA.

[Santana/Beckett FTW]

Silva is a bad comparison. Silva happens to be DRAMATICALLY overpaid. I say let perez go. I do think he is a strong asset to the rotation but if anything I'd sign him to an incentive laden deal. Say maybe a base of 4 years 36 million, with 1 million dollar incentives for each year he performs say under a 4 ERA. Paying anything over 40 million for perez is outrageous. I don't expect him to repeat his '07 season next year. If they offer him anything better they are gettin played as hard as the yankees on that arod contract.

[Santana/Beckett FTW]

If these deals keep getting so crazy for mediocre pitchers I think we may see owners trying to sell their portions of the teams or ticket prices double because the profit margins are literally going to disappear.

[themetros]

If you let Perez walk, who replaces him?

Smoltz is not going anywhere.

Give me Ollie over Burnett or Sheets, who have huge injury questions.

CC is going to be too expensive.

Yikes. After that, it gets hairy. The Mets pretty much have no choice!

I do think Pedro will be back, but they still need one more starter and I'd prefer Perez over any of the other options. It is also worth noting I probably like him more than most...

[bsox21]

It's funny how Kazmir and Oliver have almost identical stats, yet Kazmir is described as a "young ace" while oliver "lost his control month to month".

Wang isn't an ace with 2 consecutive seasons wth ERA and WHIP amongst the league leaders with far more innings and finishing second in cy young voting, yet Scott KAzmir is a "young ace".

All of you are a joke.

[John Peterson]

I would easily give Perez about 4 years, $64 million right now.

[coolpapabell]

But what happens if he implodes this year? $16 per year, hmm. I think that is where the market is going to leave him at any way. If he has another year like he had last year, he winds up being better than Silva's $11M to $12M range, but he should not be at Zambrano's $18M. If Prior pitches decently, you could probably get him at a good price. Pelfrey's development might make O.P. expendable. I have a problem soaking up so much salary on the rotation. Pedro, Johan, Maine, Pelf, then fill in the blank. Pay Tex or an elit LF and be done with it. I could live with O.P. at $14, but no more.

bsox1, where would you place O.P.'s contract. What would be your cut off in years and yearly salary?

John, I thought you have balked at commiting so such in salary to an already expensive rotation.

[HoratioAlgae]

This is a guy that has the potential to "go wild" at any point. A repeat of Mitch Williams or Rick Ankiel (as a pitcher) is not out of the question. Committing your organization to an expensive long-term contract with Perez is ludicrous.

Which makes the Mets as the perfect candidate for such folly.

[themfightnwords]

Bsox, WHY WONT YOU SHUT UP! you say the stupidest things. Kazmir is 24 years old, has 570 major league innings, 617 strikeouts, and an era of 3.64

Perez is 26 years old, has had only 2 good seasons, and has a career era of 4.43 despite pitching in a much easier divison than Kazmir.

Yea it's really close between them.