Brian Roberts Rumors

I'm done speculating here, we know it's going to be Gallagher and Cedeno. The Baltimore Sun said Veal is another guy. That leaves one more prospect. I'm sure McPhail has a list of prospects to choose from that both teams agreed upon.
As far as what Roberts brings, I think the differences in their bat and glove are marginal. That alone wouldn't be worth a deal. The value for the Cubs mainly lies in 2 areas: 1) it allows the Cubs to get a speedy leadoff man and 2) more importantly, move Soriano down in the order to produce more runs. 3) the depth improves immensely and makes the Cubs much more injury proof. We've all seen what's happening to the Mets where guys are going down...and their bench and farm is so thin that they may not have enough to get a quality spare part from another team. For all the hype about Santana, the Mets did little to prepare for a long season with aging players. The Cubs are trying to avoid that mistake by not just acquiring a leadoff man, but by "acquiring" one of the better super utility guys in the game in DeRosa. They do have to be careful not to trade all their major league ready pitchers (Gallagher, Marshall, Marquis, etc.) because there's no guarantee Lieber or Dempster last the season either. If the Cubs can make a deal while keeping some of their pitching depth, then I think they should do it.

Ooops, I meant 3 areas.

Yeah, Roberts adds more than five wins if you take into account the ripple effect. Soriano moves down in the order and starts hitting homeruns with guys on base, Ramirez and Lee become less of an injury risk because DeRosa will be able to give them plenty of days off when Lou sees fit and you get one of the best lead-off hitting table setters in baseball. All those things add up to much more than three or even five wins. Look at the big picture here.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but why do Cubs fans talk about winning the division as the main goal? What about getting to the World Series and maybe even winning one. If you guys are such a self proclaimed shoe-in for the division, why don't you see you'd be even better than that with Roberts+ the ripples. It's almost a reflection of the losing over there in Cubs land. You guys are built to win right now and Roberts cuts your weaknesses significantly. Think World Series, not the division. The division means S if you get swept in the first round.

We don't know if Soriano will even hit in another spot...he never has before...at least not a lot. Counting on him in the 5 (or another) spot is a little questionable...I don't get it, but he loves that leadoff spot. There is no guarantee at all that Roberts adds five wins, or even more to this team. So you basically feel like we could have added Santana, and it wouldn't have been better?

Well, Roberts is a pure lead-off hitter and I can't see Lou acquiring him in a trade so he can hit him somewhere other than there. Soriano could be better utilized hitting third or fifth. Hell, second would be better than lead-off. I understand Soriano loves hitting there, but his power is being wasted on solo homeruns. If he can get over having to say goodbye to second base and hello to left field, he can adjust to hitting third or fifth. Can you really say Soriano is a better lead-off option than Roberts just because he's comfortable there?

One summer when I was at band camp there was this guy we called D-Rosie, who played all kinds of instruments. The Band Leaders said his BABiP is higher making his VORPs surprisingly similar to this other guy Roberto was at another band camp, but who can only play one instrument. But he was supposed pretty well but you factor in their EqA's- never mind what ZiPS says about Roberto PW/BFW it didn’t seem that they were all that different when they both played the same instrument. Then someone else said that when we focus on WOBA and IsoPower extrapolated over a fixed period we were home free...right after you calculate the DRA, Range, FRAA, and Zone ratings. And that Roberto had great OPS and WARP. So we were like wow, if we can get him to come to play with us then D-Rosie can play a bunch of other instruments and make our band sound better.

Then I heard about Roberto’s other problem, and that he had to get some cream to put on it to get it all cleared up. And this guy Mitchell was going to tell everyone about it. And all I could think of was I hope he doesn't touch my instrument.

But after he joined our band sounded even better than we did the year before, but we had to give up a few upcoming young musicians in the process.

Soriano has said he will move from the leadoff spot if the Cubs acquire and "established" leadoff hitter.

Soon we'll be reading out of phonebooks...

I am starting to think we should have gone after Santana. What could we have given up for him?

Gallagher, Ceda, Veal, Colvin, Patterson, Murton, Dempster

Dempster would give them a closer for Nathan (they could now trade him).

Would the Rays give up

Crawford for

Pie/Veal/Ceda/Gallagher/Murton

Pie would replace Crawford and Murton would give them that other corner outfield spot they were talking about and then they get 3 top pitchers.

JRfukudome

yes that is what I was thinking...

But it's all screwed up because the looming contract actually decreased his value. Maybe this is Hanley costs!

I don't think so. Assuming we have anyone left to trade, I think we're going to have to go after someone who has worn out his welome? Burnett? Someone said that and it sounds about right. Plus the Jays are more likely to be out of contention.

Sabathia, wasn't he offered a contract and turned it down?

jr??? what was that?

uww1,

I was saying that Burnett would make a more likely mid-season target. Jays not likely in contention, he's worn out his welcome a bit, etc.

Jrfukudome

Ya I agree with Burnett and he would be cheaper too and we might be able to add him and Roberts.

Anything about Sherrill? hahaha

Excellent update, crunchy! If we get Payton, what do we do with Murton? Spin him for a prospect?

Definitely, JR. I think if the Cubs get Payton, they can definitely afford to use Murton to recoup a prospect. Maybe the Padres or the Mets. Though I'm not sure what the Mets have left in terms of prospects. They're selling out for this year.

I believe this is a situation where we could let Murton choose if he wants to stay if Chicago, he knows his role. If he can stay a team player he can help us win a WS.

I personally would rather have Murton over Payton. Could Patterson back up at CF? And I dont see why the O's would not choose Patterson over Cedeno right now? And what about Cintron? Payton is a waste in my eyes, we can send him down to Peoria.

Dude. I still don't think we need Murton (with or without Payton). Roberts is not going to be rested much, and Ward should sub for Lee and Sori. That means DeRosa has to get the starts at RF and 3B (plus a few in LF, 2B, and SS).

DeRosa, Ward, Payton, Patterson, Blanco?

I think thats about right Jr, as long as Patterson doesn't go to the O's. I think they would be dumb not to get him though...he has pretty good upside.

Cintron has looked surprisingly decent in ST so far...so I don't know. Lou likes Fontenot too...he is going to be tough to beat out for a guy like Patterson, even though I think he is clearly the better player. Fontenot is baseball savvy though, which is what lou loves...so we'll see! I can't wait for this season though, either way. Do you have any idea how much we are going to hear it if the Cubs don't win this division??

Patterson is a lefty, so backing up in CF might not be what the Cubs really want. I think they prefer a righty, thus *gulp* a Payton fit in the rumor. I'd much rather have Murton over Payton, too. But Murton can't play CF. I don't know if Cintron has played CF. I think Fontenot is sent down if this trade happens.

I must be a glutton for punishment...or love to argue; why else would I re-join this thread.
Once again, the Cubs' stupor fans come out en mass and start talking nonsense or straight up slandering those with reasonable opinions, backed up with thoughtful explanation (yeah, I'm talking about you Ibleedblue). Disagree all you want, but you lose ALL credibility when you try to front like your ideas have any more veracity. Worse, the whole Cubs blitz seems to infect some of the Cubs posters who, up to this point, have managed to sound rational. Oh well. Hopefully all this s$^* will be over soon (although part of me wants B'more to keep Roberts now, since...y'know...you don't need him and all. After all, your careful calculations 'prove' that he's worth just 3 or 4 wins. Personally, I think Roberts is worth at least 5 hours, while DeRosa's value comes to 12 smiles.

Milehigh, seriously, give us the raw truth about Payton's defense and baserunning skills. He's not completely run down, is he?

“I was mainly focusing on the real difference between their EqA. Work it out, figure out the rEqA sans league adjusting. The difference is all stolen bases and adjustment.”

So, you’re saying that if DeRosa didn’t play in a hitter friendly park, and had +speed, and hit at the top of an order that he would maybe be about equal to Roberts. That you figure you can prove this with EqA – SB & ParkFactors? Well that’s easy enough, EqA is a simple concept really and just takes a min with a calculator…

EqA without SB:
Roberts w/o SB ~ .819
DeRosa w/o SB ~ .803

Non-Adjusted EqR ( spread over 600PA)
Roberts 87
DeRosa 80

…Roberts ends up +7R (or about 0.7 Wins) better than DeRosa still, even if he is never allowed to steal a base (for whatever reason, seems a weird concept but its what you asked for) and with no other factors worked into it… Since the VORP difference was about 28, then I guess we just figured out that his speed is something like 66% of his value over DeRosa, and the other 33% would be his hitting…

But since SB are actually allowed in the game, and the entire concept of VORP is set up to let you know who is the actual better player and what to expect if they replaced eachother; well… Excuse me? So VORP (or similar calculations) is the common practice comparison tool, but you think its foolish it was used here?

And fielding? The PMR difference is 99.92 (Roberts) to 95.08 (DeRosa) with a DER of .120 (Roberts) to .108 (DeRosa). Oh and Roberts had an OOZ of 47 in 1329 Inn (that’s 1 per 28.3 Inn) to DeRosa at 15 in 708 Inn (1 in 47.2 Inn). Spread out over an even 1329, that’s 47 to 28… And he had as many errors at 2B as Roberts despite seing 220-ish fewer balls hit into his zone. The difference is a tad more than you are attempting to imply, and one years worth of fair glovework does not make a good DeRosa. But if it makes Cubs fans feel better to think that Roberts isnt an upgrade, then think whatever ya like…

Pie must be some kind of tough. Wait til he gets his nut untwisted. How fast will he be then.

Roberts would be a nice improvement. Another part of his value to the Cubs is having 2 freshman (Pie and Soto) and a Sophomore (Theriot) in the lineup. If we had more experince in 2 of these positions (or a proven history of what we expect out of 2 of these 3) I believe Roberts value to the Cubs would go down.

I also believe it has softened a little because of the play of EPat and some others.

fuku- I dunno about completely run down, but he sucks. I'm not going to defend Jay Payton. He has value because the market says so, but he's pretty much a cancer. Frankly, I feel that he fits a Cubs' team need and that there's a good shot he's in the deal but if you're asking my opinion of him as a player...you don't want him. Keep Pie as far away from him as possible.

By the way, who are all of these O's fans uww1 and others are talking about? The ones who think that it's sure to be a 5 for 1 and that it will include Colvin, Ceda, Gallagher, Veal, AND a fifth. Maybe they are out there, but I don't think that's the majority voice and I know you didn't hear that from me. I'm not saying it's waaaay off, but even I think that would be high. Cut Ceda out and maybe you're there.
Also, did someone here really call Matt Murton 'Nick Swisher with a better average and a little less power,' or something like that? What?! And whether or not the package mentioned would've been enough for Santana is irrelevant. You didn't get him. He's on the Mets. At least with the Roberts deal, we're talking about something that could actually happen!

Curiously, I find myself most in agreement with Cub4Life (clearly not an O's fan), who actually seems to understand the value-realities of trading. Who the f*#$ cares about VORP or WARP or...whatever. It's all about who is holding the cards. Adun and crunchy and the rest of the Cubs lynch mob don't seem to get that. 'Give McPhail the finger'? You might have to. I'm cool with that. You have every right to tell him to stick it if you feel he's asking too much (or, I should say, Hendry has every right). But you sit here and repeat the same dubious offers that we've heard time and again, without any explanation as to WHY you think as much.
Adun- why do you think a deal of Gallagher, Cedeno, and Veal gets it done? Perhaps if you explained that, I could be swayed...or at least respond in kind. Instead you seem (it’s the only inference I can make) to be basing this upon what you, as a fan, think your team should do. OK, there's a place for that and I can dig that you don't want to give up the farm for Roberts, but explain your points. Oh...by the way, I'm just using Aduncaroo as an example. I'm not trying to pick on you dude; you were just the first name I saw when scrolling up to look at the posts.

Stark says a week. Here's hoping. 'Night all.

I am home sick from teaching today, so I might as well post something, before I go back to bed.

I agree with Milehigh. most of your posts are pretty good and rational over the rest of the O's fans. Not saying all O's fans are bad or all Cubs fans are not always great either.

Would you do this?
Colvin/Gallagher/Veal/Cedeno/MArquis
FOR
Roberts/Sherrill/Payton

We will take payton off your hands and you take Marquis, which gives you your Lohse type pitcher you are rumored to be interested in (if its cash you are worried about to make up the difference between the 2 we would give you some cash with it)
The Sherrill part I have found out is pretty much my idea, which most people dont agree with. No problem there I could be reaching anyway, but I just have this feeling. MacPhail and Hendry were talking long before Bedard got traded. I feel this was set up way before to include Sherrill in the deal. They just has to agree upon the rest and do some scouting before the deal will get finalized. Pinella has been in record that they will have another lefty in the pen, and it sounds like it will be by trade. Who would it be then? The other reason is that why would the O's ask for Sherrill when they could have gotten another prospect in the deal. Sherrill had a lot of value for a competing team. I am sure they would have been more reluctate to give up another mid-level prospect before Sherrill. But maybe Chicago came in and said take Sherrill and we will sweeten our offer. Ok good I got that off my chest.

“"Roberts is better than DeRosa but only in stolen bases." Does this say he's never allowed to steal a base? Does this assume stolen bases are worthless?”
…again, excuses me?

“Roberts is better than DeRosa but only in stolen Bases” is not even specifically what I was replying to, this is:
“Did you happen to look at what the upgrade actually is, dark? Or just siding with ambiguous wins? Roberts WARP advantage is purely league/park adjustment and stolen bases.”

Now,
A) the VORP/W difference is being used by people here (mainly Cubs fans who call it a negative), who may or may not have gotten it from my statements some months ago. I posted nothing more than telling MileHigh where it might have come from.
B) Your statement is still incorrect anyway, he’s like giving DeRosa a 10% increase over 600PA (as we figured out) ~ which is without any form of ParkAdj as well (which I question since ParkFactor is such an established difference maker, but whatever)
C) Your statement would be similar to someone saying something like “J. Crede is more productive than D.Lee, he just doesn’t take walks.”. Which, thats actually true if we wanted to “separate the components” like that… If we gave 71BB (instead of 28) to Crede’s 2006 line (making the appropriate AB adjustment as well), then we see a line of .307/.392/.548. Compare that to D.Lee with .317/.400/.513 last year.
D) Your statement doesn’t provide a real point since Roberts does actually possess that speed. We don’t explain Lee’s production saying “he’s only better because he talks walks”, so why would we explain Roberts by saying “he’s only better because he steals bases”? Sure, you can compare their other skills by saying such a thing, but it doesn’t make a real substantial point.

So, where I can post all day saying “Kevin Youkilis is just as good as Prince Fielder, Kevin just doesn’t hit as many HRs” (another true statement, their BA/OBP are rather identical and the real difference in their bat value boils down to HR). But if I went around saying such a thing, people would call me nuts because (even though true) it ignores a huge part of the actual game just in an attempt to stretch something to its max as if it might be a point. I didn’t even call you nuts, I went along with your perceived point and provided the data. I found out that its still a rather significant increase to value even if Roberts didn’t have any SB…

And no, I’m not just now looking into the fielding stats you mention, its all been gone over months ago as well. Neither do I see something as cherry-picking when I use the stats you chose to point out. I took the ones which are more thorough and best express the difference between the two, esp with regards to the range at the position. If you want to act like there is no difference, so be it, and I hope that makes you feel better.

BTW, not an O’s fan in any way shape or form. Infact, if I have a real bias ~ its against the AL-E teams (which I’m not going to explain completely, but it spreads to all 5 of them). I just think of things on both sides of the coin. And if only one side is represented somewhere, then I might state the other…

Dark...don't lie to the man. Tell him why you are on this thread in the first place! You have an obvious, even to him, anti-cubs bias...the least you can do is be honest about it.

Statistics can be used to prove anything. 27% of people know that.

- Homer Simpson

Jr.fuku-
Best...quote...EVER. Threw out my back like Josh Beckett laughing. That was great!

Thank you for demonstrating my point, Doc. Your post was well thought out and explained your position nicely. I'm sure dark's response will be equally eloquent. ...And I will tear my hair out. BTW, do you know baseball very very well or do you know statistics very very well? Not making a statement; just a question to consider.

And stop knocking long-winded discussions (LOL)! As anyone who's read MY posts knows, that's the way I roll! I know you weren't talking about me, but I must defend my loquacious brethren. Type my children! Type 'til your fingers bleed!

MileHigh,

2nd post (@2:21) = perfectly said.

1St post (@2:05) = cant agree with as much. If Stats weren’t important then no one would bother keeping them. If Sabermetrics weren’t important, then the teams would use them. (and even copyright the programs base on them that they come up with) Nor would the formulas probably provide such accurate results on such a high rate. But the most important part of sabermetrics is the fact that it’s a way to gauge everything more as a whole, meaning selectively taking things out (like SB, HR, BB, etc) doesn’t generally make sense. Without stats and being able to help explain players real, actual value as a whole though, well you end up with arguments like “Joe Crede is one of the best 3B in baseball”. Many ChiSox fans really believe this because he has looked great when they have seen him play, but when the actual stats are looked at and things like park-factors are taken into consideration... Well, lets just say that its hard to even prove he is the best 3B in a division with 7 full-timers for the position. That is of course unless such a argument consists solely of “he is one of the best fielding 3B in baseball and can hit 30 HR and is clutch and is only 30 so could get better” ~ that afterall is the only things that are ever really said. Ironically, the same things can be said about Feliz, where most of these same people will argue he isnt as good. In the end, you see how well things are explainable or expressible without stats being used.

I can of course go further into such a conversation, and provide tons of information if you would like. Some of it you may actually find extremely interesting (ie, EqA and EqR being consistent with 100+ years worth of the games tendencies ~ they have the science down better then you can imagine). But really, the bottom line is that 3-4W or even anywhere from 1-4 is dramatic and does properly explain the same things you are trying to do to those people who are willing to think about everything rationally. Sure, some people can try to explain it away if it doesn’t suit their argument or bias, but it doesn’t make it hold less weight to everyone else unless they want to try to use it in their obsessive attacks or out of context. Dr’s using it saying I skew things, why saying we should skew it and see what we get… :\ Lastly, if you don’t like the stat posts, just skim over them like you probably do with those that are obviously just random fandom rants ~ its only like 3-4 posts in a thread with plenty others afterall, and since there wasn’t really a point of it to begin with, well then ideally it wont continue…

Dr,

Roberts had a.290/.377/.432/.809 w/ 50 SB in Balt
DeRosa had a .293/.371/.420/.791 w/ 1 SB in Chi

…That’s your entire point, right? Ok man… Thanks for sharing! I’m sure everyone will be shocked by this revelation you have provided now that you have “demonstrated how similar they are besides SB” for us …

"Adun- don't necessarily agree with that. From what I've read of Dark's, he's been pretty balanced."

Milehigh...take a look at pretty much every cubs post from the last YEAR. Its really obvious if you want to read them. Notice that I have never said that you were anti cubs, even when we don't agree on Roberts. I think that you make a fairly objective opinion most of the time, and I respect that. But believe me, there is no one with a more anti cubs bias than dark. He doesn't even like the Cubs, or Orioles, and he has been all over every Roberts thread. Literally...every single one. You might say he is just interested...well then what is the obsession with every other Cubs post, I mean every one, for the last year? Seriously, if you don't believe me....just go look for yourself.

Adun-
I don't know anything about all that...I'm new to the site. I have no issue with anyone; I just like talking baseball. It's a pretty quiet night though. Guess everyone is all talked out about Roberts and just wants the deal to get done. I know I'll be glad to see it all come to an end...though I wonder what we O's fans will talk about once our last trade chip moves to Wrigley. How many games we're going to lose? The development of Luis Hernandez? Brandon Fahey's stellar plate discipline? (for you slower children...that's called sarcasm; please don't start telling me how bad Fahey sucks or whatever)

Not sure if you guys are still checking this page but…

Adun,

uhhh, why would I bother explaining the defense when what that guy said is untrue? If someone came in here and told you that the Cubs didn’t make the playoffs last year, would you be bending over to believe him? This guy is little more than a guy with a flashlight and smoke-machine trying to get people to believe there are UFOs, he hasn’t said anything really true, just tried to dismiss other truths as if they are false. If people take the time to learn about the different defensive measures, they will realize this. The only two areas where Roberts and DeRosa really end up being that similar are in Field Percentage and Zone Rating ~ but those two stats are pretty much the same thing (One ranks attempts vs Putouts ~ one ranks Balls in Zone vs Outs). That’s why I instead look at stats which calculate the ease of plays, range, agility, etc… (ie, is a guy only making the easy plays but cant really do anything other than those easy plays?)

Hello-ello-llo-lo-o. Where is everyone-one-ne-e? Is there an active thread going or has everyone just given up and stopped talking baseball for the last couple of days. I'd say it was a work thing, but that hasn't stopped anyone in the past (myself included; I'm starting to think I should probably concentrate on my job more- novel thought. LOL). Oh well, guess I'll try back later.

Milehigh...

Like you said, you are new, so you will find out. If you get bored again, go through the Cubs threads from the last year+ and read Dark's comments...they are all anti Cubs and they are all random posts except for the Roberts stuff. He brings up Garland?

Mile, this is a guy that still can't admit he was wrong and Ramirez would have been the better choice last year. We had an argument this time last year about who would be better in 07 offensively. I said Aramis, he said Rolen...and he still cannot admit he was wrong about it. Its not that I think he doesn't know his stuff some of the time, but he skews numbers and has a real obvious ego problem. What will amaze dark is that I don't and won't have a problem with you because you admit if you made a personal attack you shouldn't have, admit if you are wrong, and understand that there is more to baseball than a calculator. His ego will never let him just say, "you know what, I think you are right..I was wrong."

Hey dark, were you right or wrong about Rolen being the better offensive player last year?

Watch...he can't do it.

Hahaha, yep and Adun is still going…

There was a conversation well over a year ago in which different players were talked about ~ Ramirez being one of those. Me and a buddy of his were telling him that Ramirez has shown some declining qualities which are not exactly pointing to amazing things to come, but he was insisting that he would “have a break out season, easily”. Of course his buddy was a Cards fan, so Adun kept bringing up Rolen as a comparison, saying such things as “he will never play 100G again” or “He will never have 400 AB again” or some stuff like that. The statements we were making of Ramirez probably looking at injury soon, and more SLG declines after three straight years of it already turned to him asking over and over again with each post for a answer to his non-related “who would you rather have” question. I kept telling him I would be happy with either and eventually backed down to ‘fine, just give me Rolen then if it will stop you from changing the topic’. Skip forward a year+ and he still insists I should say I was completely wrong once a week because I was right about almost everything I said except for the thing I was never trying to talk about… It’s a beautiful little story of a obsession he likes to bring up when he cant make a point, saying that I cant even say things I’ve actually said many times before… His "he's bias" and "He cant say he's wrong" is his fallback when he cant think of anything to say against me, and he really will go on for ever trying to get me or whatever, so its just what I have to live with...

And Adun, most of the Cubs fans have openly stated they are still in school ~ how is it bias to say that’s probably where they are? Sure, I guess I made a minor mistake in saying the word “all” instead of “most”, but… Whatever dude, just keep insisting everything is some dark-seated bias against the Cubs or whatever. Yes, you really show that you want to have baseball conversations when logic is met with "you are just bias!"...

O.....K.(laughing nervously and slowly backing out of the room)

Hmmm...no answer yet. Lets all wait and check back and see if he can give us a simple yes or no answer.

Yes or No dark...yes or no. Were you right when you said that Rolen would have the better offensive year in 07'? Its not hard, were you right, or were you wrong...

I hear it's now Roberts, Payton, and a Cal Ripken rookie card for every Wilkens draft pick- Colvin, Vitters, Thomas, Donaldson, etc., Gallagher, Soto, Marshall, Veal, Cedeno, Patterson, Rich Hill, Carlos Zambrano, Alfonso Soriano, Fukudome, Marmol, Ceda, and every nostalgic Wrigley Field memory any Cubs fan has made over the last 50+ years. Angelos is holding out for Angel Guzman and one of Hendry's famous foot massages, which is why it hasn't been announced. Can't wait to remember Mr Oriole, Ernie Banks. Oh, and Ron Santo Day at Camden Yards. It just rolls off the tongue, doesn't it?