Cubs-Orioles Roberts Talks Getting Serious

I agree with playwright. Best Oriole insider information comes from Kubatko and Zrebiec in the Baltimore Sun. Go to their Oriole/baseball webpage @ http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/

Roch Kubatko maintains an Orioles blog on the website too.

Dark's deal is close if you subtract Colvin and Payton. But, if you do that, I think you have something close to crunchy's deal...

The other reporters who have a lot to say about the Orioles are Heyman and Rosenthal. Heyman seems very weak to me. I don't know his sources, of course, but he usually gets things wrong, and he loves to bash Angelos. I think he just repeats information, and Angelos is an easy target. None of the Sun's reporters seem to be blaming Angelos these days. That may be partly politic, but I think it's mostly a wait-and-see--all right-so-far attitude.

Among his telling errors--he calls Camden Yards "a bandbox." This is always my test of whether or not somebody's actually investigating before they speak. Camden Yards may offer a slight advantage to right habded power hitters, but nothing obscene, and is generally--as stats prove--an average ballpark. For years, unthinking reporters have repeated the myth that Camden Yards is a bandbox. If you see somebody saying this, you know immediately that he's simply repeating wrong information. I then question everything he says.

Ken Rosenthal is very intriguing relative to Baltimore. He was born and grew up in Baltimore. He lives in a suburb of Baltimore. He was the Orioles reporter for a time. So, his Baltimore sources are likely very, very good. He did constant battle with Angelos when he was the Sun's reporter, and he obviously has an Angelos vendetta. In general, I like him. But you always need to discount severely what he says about Angelos.

“Dark, rating by assigning stars has always seemed an arbitrary process to me - regardless of who writes it, that professional writers did it doesn’t it give it more credence in my eyes.”

...Yet it is neither my being bias or amateurish, as you stated. A star ranking is no different than calling players a “B-Type” or “second-tier” or whatever; it is designed to give everyone an easier way to value guys.

And I’m sorry, but whether you personally want Payton or not, his name is in the topic and the topic is what I posted to.

“Payton is pretty much a salary dump, isn't he?”

…Its my understanding he is A) a player that fits the Cubs desires (Vet back-up CFer with starter capability if needed) and B) a player Balt doesn’t need (the OF depth is Jones/Markakis/Scott/Gibbons/Redman/Robertson/Terrero) If anything, the O’s need to get rid of 1 or 2 ML OFers (unless they are bringing in projectable upside guys like Pie). Taking on Murton in place of Payton leaves them with the same problem they already have where Colvin is atleast 2-3 years away from needing real playing time.

Attempting to just dump salary has never been a Baltimore concern from my understanding though, otherwise I would think guys like Mora, Hernandez, Millar, etc wouldn’t be around. The team is much more worried about getting real future talent for tradeable players than they are about dumping cost…

Dark, you’re own analysis of the players involved is biased and contradicts what I’ve read in sources such as Baseball America. Using the word “horrible” is a very subjective way of describing things. So maybe the stars portion isn’t your particular bias – it’s still arbitrary to me. The analysis portion, however, is yours and it reads very much like a persuasive paper or a sales proposal.
And having other team's pay their salaries has never been an issue for the Cubs. In fact, I don’t remember the last time it’s happened. That the Cubs would trade for Colvin for a low-cost, partially paid for Payton is just not plausible. Don’t take it personally. I just don’t buy it at all. A Payton for Murton deal makes more sense. It doesn’t matter if the O’s can afford to pay Payton. The question is why would they when they don’t have to? A financially successful man like Angelos, or any financially successful person, doesn’t just throw money away if they don’t have to. If Angelos can get the same quality of player for a lower price, you would think he would take it. The Cubs will pay the extra money for the simple reason that Payton can play CF, not because he’s a better player – and like I said, the O’s don’t even need a backup CF’er, they have cheaper, in-house options. Why throw money away on Payton?

Getting Murton for Payton gives them a young guy with upside to man the outfield spots, where Payton makes zero sense because he is old, has no upside, won't get better, and makes a good amount of money. It would make sense to dump him if they can...getting something in return or not.

By the way, if you are going to BP to get how many stars these guys are, why wouldn't you just copy thier blurbs about them?

7. Tyler Colvin, OF
DOB: 9/5/85
Height/Weight: 6-3/190
Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted: 1st round, 2006, Clemson
2007 Stats: .301/.336/.514 at High-A (63 G); .291/.313/.462 at Double-A (62 G)

Year In Review: The surprise 2006 first-round pick reached Double-A in his full-season debut while displaying both impressive athleticism and massive holes in his game.
The Good: On a pure tools level, Colvin is no worse than average across the board. He's a solid hitter who consistently rifles balls into the gap, and projects to hit 15-25 home runs annually once he gets a better feel for his power. He has a good arm in the outfield and his speed ranks as a tick above average.
The Bad: Colvin is a below-average center fielder range-wise, and many feel he'll need to move to a corner in short order. That leaves him as a bit of a tweener--his swing-at-anything approach led to just five walks in 62 Double-A games, which is not enough of an offensive force to play in a corner everyday. Lefties give him significant troubles, and he adjusts by shortening his swing, which costs him any chance at power against them.
Fun Fact: In the five Double-A games that Colvin actually drew a walk in, he was also 10-for-16 when he swung the bat.
Perfect World Projection: If he can stay in center field, his projection is far better than it is as a corner man.
Timetable: Colvin could return to Double-A in order to work on his approach, with the goal of being ready for a 2009 big-league look.

Excellent post, milehigh. It’s funny I was just going to post that another Oriole fan (maybe it was you) mentioned that an Oriole scout would be at the game today. Well, Tyler Colvin is starting in LF…a potential future opening with the Orioles though Reimold would certainly have something to say about that. Also, Eric Patterson is playing 2b again and Cedeno isn’t in the lineup at all. Maybe Gallagher, Colvin, Huseby, Patterson?

I understand dark, but I do think it would help to at least post part of the blurbs about them. Calling Tyler Colvin's plate discipline "horrible" is a stretch, not because it wasn't, but because its a very small sample size for a guy that just came out of the draft. I think when evaluating prospects, it really helps the foundation of your post to back it up with thoughts of the experts.

Anyway, it was fine the way you did it, but just leaves opinions of the prospects to be debated, where posting that might give you more leverage.

By the way...I think they should give up Payton, but he has MUCH less value than a guy like Colvin does. I was throwing Murton in there because he is at least closer to value as far as the cubs are concerned. Really, I would think a low level prospect, no matter what position they play would be better. Huesby is too good for Payton in my opinion, I would give them a A or AA position player or something. That way they get rid of an outfield log jam, get rid of salary and an old player, and solve the roster issue as well.

The Orioles do have Tike Redman to play centerfield, if needed. Obviously, he's no star, but they like his hustle, and as a caddy for Jones, he makes sense.

I think the Orioles want to trade Payton, if they get something worthwhile, but not just to dump.

Calling Tyler Colvin's plate discipline "horrible" is a stretch, not because it wasn't, but because its a very small sample size for a guy that just came out of the draft.”

…BP calls it “dismal” and “swing at anything”. “Horrible” would be a completely expectable replacement for “dismal”, so it is not a stretch. So far in 3 minor league stops he has provided BA/OBP lines of .268/.313 (2006 Low-A), .306/.336 (2007 High-A) and .291/.313 (2007 AA); and it wasn’t any better at Clemson (53 BB with 663 AB). Its not a small sample size, it’s the type of hitter he is… There is no need to reference this stuff though, because the statement was 100% correct, wasn’t subjective and should have never been questioned…

“Anyway, it was fine the way you did it, but just leaves opinions of the prospects to be debated, where posting that might give you more leverage.”

Exactly, it was fine the way I did it. It only leaves itself open to those people doing anything they can think of to try and nitpick. More leverage isnt needed when the original statement is not really questionable, and if a person does want to question it then that person needs to come up with something stating otherwise instead of blindly calling it bias and amateurish. That is neither trying to debate, nor is it even correct. There was never a reason to question it, and there was definitely never a reason for a conversation over it ~ it was a completely accurate statement given in an extremely minor and perfectly proper situation which has solid evidence behind it and multiple sources available to provide an agreement.

It is absolutely fascinating to read all the nonsense you Cub fans are spouting in regards to this trade. First of all, you should prepare yourselves and accept the fact that Roberts is going to be expensive...probably more expensive than you want. You want and need him far more than the Orioles need to trade him. He is a potential final piece to your century long puzzle. That doesn't come cheap! Also, you all seem to ignore the fact that this particular all-star is under contractual control for two full seasons at a very reasonable price which further increases his value. You can stop worrying about Pie and Soto. We don't need them and won't go after them. Our outfield is a strength, as is our catching, both now and in the future. Gallagher is a given and other arms will be included as well, but you are going to part with at least one, if not two blue chip prospects. Cedeno or Patterson will possibly be in the mix because we'll need a new 2B, but they're gravy in this deal...not the meat. I'm surprised Vitters name hasn't been mentioned anywhere. Just stop suggesting all of your garbage players. The Orioles may be rebuilding, but they aren't stupid. Take a look at the 10 for 2 we just picked up for Tejada (one day before he got busted) and Bedard. Two starting major league outfielders (Scott and Jones), a closer (Sherrill) and a set-up reliever (Sarfate), at least two major league ready starters (Patton, Albers), one top of the rotation prospect in Tillman and a few others on top of that. You are not getting Roberts for a bunch of AAAA players and you all better accept that now before the deal is announced.

Yeah, the Tejada trade looks great. Patton is ready...for a season on the DL after a torn labrum. It's doubtful he'll regain his velocity anytime soon, if at all. And it's not like he threw all that hard anyway. Albers was awful last year. Any team that would start him has serious rotation problems. Look up his numbers in the NL Central -- do you think they'll improve in the AL East? He's competing for the O's fifth spot with Jon Leicester (among others). Leicester couldn't crack the Cubs roster. Sarfate ranks as the 20th prospect in an average farm system. Scott's a 4th OF'er on most teams, even the lowly Astros had him as their 4th guy. Where's the elite player there? Only Patton was highly regarded - at the same level as Gallagher - and he's always had shoulder issues - this is not out of nowhere.

Tillman projects as a middle of the rotation starter - not top. His value is mostly projection right now. Sherrill's only a closer because your team has no other option. He's never pitched more than 45 innings and he had a career year last season that lowered his career ERA to 3.65. He's a lefty relief specialist who usually goes in for a batter or two, the Orioles are making him their closer to try and increase his trade value.

And not one person thinks Patterson or Cedeno is the center of deal. No one mentions Vitters because he isn't going anywhere. No team will give a prospect that highly rated for Roberts. Even most O's fans are aware of that.

There's a lot of good posts from Oriole and Cub fans on this site. I wouldn't count yours as one of them.

Dark...do you feel the need to be so touchy about this? I was being totally cool and I wasn't the one that said anything bad about you here. I just said if you were there anyway, you might as well reference the experts opinions, which were on the very same page. You need to chill out a bit.

There are plenty of good players that aren't great at taking walks. That being said, he is one year out of the draft, so he could easily get much better. I think he will get a little better, but not a ton. As long as he realizes his power and can keep hitting for a good average, he will be very good. I'm not too worried about Colvin, I think you have to trust Wilken because his track record is terriffic. If he saw enough to make Colvin his first pick for his new organization, than I think Colvin will be pretty good.

Here is my idea and I think its fair for everyone. I know what everyone is going to say this is my theory and we went through this last night. HA

O's Get Gallagher/Ceda/Veal/Patterson

Cubs Get Roberts/Sherrill

Also, ac99, as a fellow O's fan, your ignorance and belligerence are embarrassing. Grow up. Everyone has an opinion. Sure, they're like certain, uh...holes, but you don't have to act like one if you get my drift. I agree that some of the Cubs fans are proposing underwhelming deals. Still, you've only shown yourself to be their equal- no...worse- both in your childish post and your way-off assessment of the Tejada/Bedard deals. Crunchy just schooled you, son.
As for jrfukudome's question: If Colvin is half as good as Frenchie, I pray the O's get him. I'll take the K's! Francouer is a monster.
Finally, while I continue to like uww1's take on a Sherrill inclusion, I think both he and cr hartley01 are vastly undervaluing what it will take to get Roberts. While I won't go all ac99 on you, you're probably going to have to do better. Crunchy and I have taken over for Hendry and McPhail respectively (LOL) and we're close to a Colvin, Gallagher, Cedeno, and a 4th (probably a pitcher) for Roberts and Payton deal. The O's may have to eat Marquis' contract as well, but it's along these lines. If uww1 wants Sherrill, it'll take a little more. Yes, I'm kidding...sort of.

“Dark...do you feel the need to be so touchy about this?”

…Being touchy in having to reply to things that should have never been said in the first place? I don’t feel I need to chill out because I’m completely fine with it, but if someone chooses to call me out as bias and amateurish because I said the truth in the most minor of ways then I think its completely understandable to set the record straight; as people do all the time. You chose to respond saying that I might be stretching the truth and that I should have just given full scouting reports to ensure no one could nitpick me ~ so I told you the truth and said the reports aren’t needed, people just shouldn’t nitpick. Don’t say anything and its over a long time ago, but jump in and... Just like every other thread though, the unwarranted nitpicking and runarounds for nothing end up in long conversations about nothing and the chance of producing a problem…

“There are plenty of good players that aren't great at taking walks. That being said, he is one year out of the draft, so he could easily get much better. As long as he realizes his power and can keep hitting for a good average, he will be very good. I'm not too worried about Colvin”

…And to that I might feel you might have been being a bit touchy about what I said. I said “horrible plate discipline” while calling it the “normal slugger risks”. No one was ever trash talking the guy, its normal for many projectable sluggers to have miserable plate discipline. Some snap out of it, some don’t ~ it’s the risk you take with them. Is it concerning that he wasn’t able to hit in the locations where young sluggers generally tear the hide off the ball? Yeah, which is why I think he cant be held to extreme value when we are talking trades.

Lucid and measured. Bravo!

milehigh,

This isn't a war of words. I just felt like he went off on me for something someone else said...while I was trying to be nice...but whatever.

Anyway, while it is likely that 2 of 3 of Veal/Colvin/Huesby don't become very good players, that is bc they are prospects, and thats likely of just about any three prospects.

Jr makes a great point about Francouer...he has a lot of those qualities...I just hope he doesn't swing that hard. I swear his back is going to snap in half on some of those swings! Anyone seen that high school highlight of him swinging and yelling at the same time, and hits a ball about 500 ft.?

Also, I'm with Milehigh in the fact that I think the O's would LOVE to get Payton off thier roster\payroll. Why wouldn't they? He might mean one more win...and they are better off giving those at bats to one of their kids.

While the O's would be smart to ask for Colvin, I don't think that they are going to get him.