No Recent Brian Roberts Talks

I like where Bleacher Buddha was going with the trade but I think including any more than a third team is unrealistic.

Let's stick with what we know for sure. The cubs other main trade partner (besides Baltimore) in recent history is Kevin Towers and the Padres. As their already decrepit outfield deteriorates further, their need for Murton grows daily.

We know that if Hendry would move Murton in the Roberts trade if the O's needed/wanted him but they do not. So why not give Towers a right-handed OF in Murton for their blocked 10th ranked prospect 1st baseman Kyle Blanks and a mid level pitching prospect. With a 25yo Adrian Gonzalez, Blanks will age like open wine not fine cheese.

This should be enough talent to swing back to the Orioles for their 4th and fifth player demands. If the Padres were really interested in Payton they could increase the level of their pitching prospect seeing that six of their top ten prospects are pitchers.

Then the trade would look like this;

O's recieve, Cedeno, Gallagher, Veal, Blanks and wild card pitching prospect.

Padres get Matt Murton.
Payton if they are willing to give up more pitching.

Most importantly the Cubs get the coveted switch hitting Roberts by only giving up the standard three and Murton.

This seems like a very fair deal for all involved and still realistic. These teams work well together.

If Towers isn't game or this doesn't look appetizing for the Orioles the Cubs could have them check the loaded Rays system for prospects and move Murton to fill their corner-outfielder need.

Most importantly everyone comes out with what they need and are happy.

Crunchy,

BP arms are the most unpredictable thing in the world. All the guys you listed for the Cubs could be off the team or of no importance at all 2-3 years down the road when Ceda will be coming up. 2-3 years down the road though, the O’s will be thinking about who they want in their pen for the first time really ~ they aren’t deciding the 2010 back-end guys today. Colvin, being mainly a corner guy, is blocked for years in Chicago and will have his growth stunted with the team even if he does progress rapidly. What good would he be if he is ML ready but sitting on the bench? And the O’s will have 5 spots to decide where a few guys fit in, its not difficult to see that not all will pan out while having 5-7 or so guys to choose from for said 5 spots is the best idea.

And multiple respected scouting reports have said that Colvin is a projected corner guy because he’s below average in CF. That’s “borderline CF” in my mind, I don’t know what to tell ya…

As far as the other stuff and inevitable attempted slander you always end up resorting to… Pie as a late inning guy instead of sitting on the bench all the time last year is understandable, otherwise he completely rots. He is also less likely to be a rookie-mistake guy in short duty late like that because he is a plus fielder to start, but after 7-8 innings out there then we get into that probability range where it happens. What do you want, for me to say common sense doesn’t make sense? It doesn’t seem hard here…

There's a lot to say here but I'm not going to bother. If you say using Payton as a late inning replacement for Pie is "common sense" than I have nothing more to say. Discussions with you are a dead end. Like I said, what I value is an honest exchange of ideas and I prefer to discuss things with people of the same mindset.

Studio, I agree it's a dilemna and there's no easy answer. It's not a black and white, right or wrong kind of situation. The key is whether Colvin remains blocked. And that has to do partly with his ability to play CF. This is BA's assessment:
"He's a slightly above-average runner whose speed plays up on the basepaths and in center field. He has average arm strength and good accuracy on his throws."
But then the question is -- what if Pie flourishes? Then Colvin is blocked in CF as well. My opinion with Colvin is that his value hasn't peaked. If he shows power and better plate discipline, his stock shoots through the roof. You could then either be forced to find a spot for him -- or you can get a bigger return on a deal next year - instead of being a throw in player. And if he doesn't hit it big, what have you lost? The ability to throw him into a deal?...That wasn't much value to begin with. So I think this: wait it out and see with Colvin. The Cubs would be selling pretty low if they trade him in this proposed deal. It can't get much lower than one player out of 4 in exchange for just an upgrade at second base. If Colvin improves, we'll be able to get a good player in return all by himself. Ceda, on the other hand, has all sorts of buzz going on about him and his value is so high that Hendry called him untouchable. If he has an off year - like Veal did - his value will plummet. And even if Ceda does hit it big, you've still got good arms in that bullpen. I love the way Smardzija, Lahey and Hart are throwing this spring. It's a tough call, but I'd feel better about losing Ceda than Colvin.

I think "gocubbies" could be on to something with that 3 way trade. I was thinking of something like that the other day. Padres, Rays or Mets need a corner outfielder in Murton. We could get one to two mid level prospects. We could also get a mid level prospect for Marquis. Could we trade Marquis and Murton for 3 prospects and include those 3 prospects with Gallagher, Veal, Cedeno for Roberts? Even get Payton and send him out also? Would something like that work? I am not even going to speculate on who the prospects would be. This could be a good idea. Maybe the O's are scouting the Padres/Mets/Rays?

darkstar, thanks for the info on Hafner. The reason I asked about HR's is because I was debating whether or not to take Hafner in the home run contest I join yearly. I think I'll roll the dice with him because he has a huge upside.

Dark, u are as wrong as someone can possibly be about playing payton over pie in the late innings. Pie is a defensive stud, payton is a defensive liability. But late in a close game, you honestly believe putting the far worse player out there is how u hold a lead? What a joke. Shut up and eat your crow. That was a dumb statement from the second you typed it.

Adun, the only way I can see Payton late in the game in CF for Pie is if he pinch-hits for Pie against a lefty. Payton would then take CF by default. By the way, I watched the game today and Pie took the first pitch for a ball on every single AB -- I loved it! He got ahead and took at least two balls every time up. It looks like he's listening to his hitting coach and it paid off with a couple of RBI's today.

Studio, I actually wouldn't be surprised if they held on to both -- even if it costs them the chance to make the deal. The Cubs are good enough to win without Roberts and they know it. I'll be fine with it if they just walk away.

And don't worry, I know what you mean about the "bulk"! Colvin's a beanpole, but I've heard he's put on some muscle weight recently.

Hey guys, for what it's worth, here's what MiLB says aboyt Colvin.

"It was a bit of a surprise when the Cubs took Colvin in the first round of the 2006 draft. It's looking like a smart pick now as the center fielder reached Double-A in his first full season of pro ball. Colvin has power that is still developing and good base-running skills that allow him to make the most of his speed. He's not a burner, but he should swipe his share of bases and has shown excellent defensive skills in center."

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/news/top50/y2008/profile.jsp?t=p_top&pid=502125

I agree, if anything Pie might be pinch-hit for. Pie taken out for D just seems like a stretch.

Its more than a stretch...

Look at espn.com/mlb

Pie is on the front page

LOL adun, I was being kind. I 100% agree Pie would not be taken out for D and I'm sure that would never happen. Why? Because you don't spell Lou ....B A K E R.

Nice find, INOK. That's a pretty glowing report on Colvin. Especially about his defense.
I also liked seeing Pie grace the cover of the ESPN (Eastern Seaboard Programing Network)...then again, the east coast teams don't play in the Cactus league. I liked how they wrote that they have just got to let him play...forget these stinkin' backups that teams are trying to gouge us for. It's also great to see Pie working on the things that are considered to be his weaknesses. That alone makes him more likely to succeed than the hard-headed Corey Patterson. By the way, Piniella said today that Pie "has distanced" himself from the competition in CF. I think he'll be officially announced as the starter soon. Not that it's going to be a surprise.

Anybody watch Gallagher today, too? He was sharp. The Cubs should trade Marquis for a spare part and keep Gallagher in AAA in case Lieber or Dempster get injured. Then he can replace Lieber full time next year. Cubs should also consider trading Marshall and Murton for some pieces that might fit better...but I'm ready to forget the Roberts deal.

Can the Cubs keep Gallagher in a trade with Roberts?

Marshall/Veal/Ceda/Colvin/Cedeno

For

Roberts

If you have to trade Murton and Marquis for Prospects and give them all to the O's, THEN DO IT...

You know, Adun, for all this talk about how much Roberts would add to the team, I was surprised that in the end it only means too-tree wins. I think it's much more devastating to the Cubs chances if Lieber or Dempster get hurt (or are ineffective) and the Cubs have no one to fill in. That to me would cost a lot more than the couple of wins Roberts would apparently provide.

Let's get a backup CF that won't cut into Pie's playing time. Let's get a lefty bullpen arm. Let McPhail sit on Roberts.

Side note:
As far as a lefty goes though, I'm kinda rooting for spring "phenom" Carmen Pignatello to sneak his way in to that last spot. He's the sentimental pick in our house because my wife knows his family. He's having a good spring and he's always thrown strikes.

Reed Johnson. He'll never eclipse Pie, he has some leadoff experience, so he could bat in the two-hole. Acually has upside, and we can get him for peanuts. Keep the parts for a latter trade.

If Pie and Johnson both bomb, we can go back and talk about Crisp or Byrd.

but uww, I agree. If there's a way we can keep Gallagher without giving up the rest of the farm, we should do it. I just think the O's don't make the deal without Gallagher. But if the Cubs/O's don't make the deal, it's certainly a great option to have in AAA. This shouldn't be looked at as some desperate situation, as some are making it out to be, this is a win-win scenario for the Cubs. I just hope Hendry understands that.

F%$k McPhail, I'm sick of it.

More on Reed Johnson. Drunken Jays Fan seems to like Reed for defense and against left-handers. They think he sucks against right-handers. Also, a jay fan on this site said he could play some CF; he's supposedly pretty good in left. Is he that worse than Byrd?

What does it take? Ascanio for Johnson? Marshall?

The way some are viewing it as if we don't make this trade, the Cubs will not go anywhere. I think we all are sick of it.

The O's lost 'Fast Freddie', huh.

Marshall did not look as sharp in his game today. Go get 'em next time. He's going to be sent down anyway.

...and Tyler Colvin

He and Gallagher will be sent down and are good options. It's only ST and it's early. But Marshall has to show more endurance this year. I hear he added some weight to his frame.

Why could we trade Colvin, Gallagher, Donaldson, Cedeno FOR Roberts

Covin and Donaldson seem to be blocked coming up through the majors. That gives the O's 2 top 100 prospects. Colvin has a very very high upside and a SS that could prove or disprove his worth.

Yeah F* it, you guys seem rather hopeless and more prone to try and nitpick unimportant shyt people with logic say than to grasp an overall concept around the reality of cost, value and interests… Might as well just rewind 2 weeks and go back to where everything was before I tried to give a realistic expectation another shot. Because, like the other non-Cubs fans who tried have said, its impossible to talk realistically with you guys. So instead of me trying to explain what we could see, what the targets probably are and what could be needed; we’ll go back to the wishful thinking and fantasizing days… Where Colvin is Shawn Green and Ceda is Lee Smith and Patterson is Brian Roberts and Cedeno is Miguel Tejada and Pie is Carlos Beltran and Soto is Victor Martinez and whatever else I’ve read about these Cubs players around here… Here, lets go back to Feb26th:
Adun ~ “I'm sorry, but I really think that Colvin, Marshall, Patterson just makes too much sense.”
Crunchy ~ (Mix of) “Cedeno, Gallagher, Patterson and Petrick.” and “In the end it will probably be Gallagher, Cedeno and another pitching prospect”

…Well there you all are, somewhere between Colvin/Marshall and Gallagher/Petrick(?) with Patterson or Cedeno apparently gets it done… And if it is more than one desirable guy involved ~ “well we don’t even need him, he barely makes us better…”

Like I said, something looking like: Gallagher + Veal + Cedeno + Colvin + Huesby = Roberts + Payton + Cash (with marquis possibly in there somewhere)
If you don’t want to hear its possible (& really, probably likely) well I don’t really care anymore… You all can now go back to the worlds where you come up with a way to give up basically nothing while suiting every possible best case scenario for the Cubs no matter how badly it ignores the other clubs best interest…

J.C. Monkey Balls! I don't know if this thread is dead at this point, but I don't care (in fact, it's probably for the best considering how long winded I get). Reading from top to bottom was like watching from the curb as a family's nice Sunday drive turned into a five car pile-up! Surely it wasn't all the fault of the Cubs fans, but jeez you guys really circle the wagons and seemingly throw reason out the window when the mob mentality sets in. One second it appeared that everyone was resigned to what I think you can reasonably extract from a post like this- that the deal will likely go down, but that it will come at a high cost (in terms of prospects)... Then- and I don't know if it was the darkstar effect or what- it's like someone hit a switch and it stopped being about what looks likely to happen and turned into what SHOULD happen...from the Cubs perspective. Now everyone's throwing around quotes from stat-crazy 'experts' who have determined that Roberts= 3 wins, like somehow you can measure something like that with any real objectivity or accuracy. Now everyone pounces: 'yeah, we don't need Roberts,' 'screw the deal,' 'anything more than Gallagher and Veal is too great a gamble.' (I realize none of these are direct quotes; I'm giving the 'gist,' of the talk) Anything said that was even remotely intelligent was drowned out in the din of idiocy and chaos. It's too bad, too, because I think we can intuit quite a bit from the trickle of information coming out (assuming there's any truth to it). I've mentioned on several occasions that I'm an O's fan and I freely admit a bias, but I think it's in check enough that I'm able to converse here without an absurd level of fan-slant and fact-manipulation. In the end, all of that stuff is pointless and serves only to create false expectations. It's going to go down how it's going to go down. Nothing said here will change the value ascribed to talent in the respective front offices of the Cubs and O's. I'm all for speculating, but I would urge posters to retain some sliver of objectivity...or at least a modicum of tolerance and respect. I wanted to share that more than any of my baseball opinions... though those of you who have been on threads with me before know that those are coming as well (LOL).