« Fielder Not Happy With Renewal |
Main
| White Sox Interested In Mark Ellis »
By Matthew Birt [March 2, 2008 at 4:45pm CST]
Some interesting tidbits this afternoon before I check out:
- Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that one of Brian Sabean's top advisors, Ted Uhlaender, was present to witness Joe Crede's homer off of Arizona's Max Scherzer on Saturday. Seems more and more likely, as Crede proves his back is fine, that he will be moved to the Giants. Will the White Sox get Kevin Correia in exchange for Crede? The White Sox need a back-of-the-rotation guy, and Kenny Williams and company think they can win this year. So prospects probably won't get it done. While the Giants could conceivably use Rich Aurilia or Kevin Frandsen at third, Sabean will most likely be unable to resist Crede's 2006.
- Juan Rodriguez of the Sun-Sentinel digs up this little tidbit: The Florida Marlins haven't signed a player to a multi-year contract since December 2005, when they signed Carlos Delgado to a four-year, $55MM contract, and Paul Lo Duca to a three-year, $18MM deal. One would hope that this trend will end soon enough, and that owner Jeff Loria will open the purse strings for Hanley Ramirez when the time is right.
- Tyler Kepner of The New York Times explores the relative surprise that Robinson Canó has been considering his draft position and reputation as a prospect, and details how frequently the Yankees almost dealt him before he made the big club. Canó was nearly dealt for Alex Rodriguez, Carlos Beltrán, and Randy Johnson in different instances.
- AP Sports Writer Bob Baum explains that Bud Selig isn't trying to keep Barry Bonds from being signed. Selig stressed that each club is free to deal with whomever they please.
Posted by Matt Birt
In re: Crede, waiting for Sabean's no-doubt-idiotic trade is like watching a traffic accident happening. Nothing against Crede, who (healthy) brings above-average defense than balances out a below-average bat. On a contender, I'd pay him a few mil a year. Sabean, the idiot, is going to trade something useful for his overpriced contract, then extend him despite the injury risk. Crikey, Sabean is dumb about free agent signings and trades.
In re: the Marlins, why would they? They're *the most profitable team in MLB*. Top of the list. The magic of rev-sharing. I'd do it, if I could.
As for Bonds, the idea that no team in the AL has a worse DH is risible. Kinda puts paid to the 'superior league' taunts.
Posted by: wcw | March 02, 2008 at 04:56 PM
Crede is just not that good. His OPS+ places him at the bottom of the list of third basemen in his own division. His historical OBP is truly bad.
He's coming off a back injury, and there are two similar third basemen who a team could go get (Mora and Inge).
Sabean makes little sense to me. Makes him a perfect candidate for the Reds.
Posted by: Matt Birt | March 02, 2008 at 05:00 PM
Why would anyone assume Loria would do anything for the good of his team or the sport. He is Selig's hatchet man, executing teams for relocation or publicly financed stadium deals.
Posted by: gutterbumber | March 02, 2008 at 06:05 PM
Comparing Mora and Inge to Crede isn't wise.
in Crede's last 4 healthy seasons, he hit 32, 34, 25, and 28 hr's. He's not an obp machine, nobody is claiming he is. But he's an established power hitter that the worst offensive team in baseball badly needs.
Defensively, Crede has never committed more than 14 errors in one season, and if you've ever watched him play defense closely, he's a borderline gold glove caliber defensive player.
He's not ARod, but he's far better than last years' Giants 3b Pedro Feliz, and a huge improvement over the line of clown's they are planning on trotting out there this season.
Will Crede be completely healthy? Nobody knows, not even him, but at only $5 million for this season, and not requiring a top prospect to acquire, it's a no brainer for any team in need of a 3b to go after him.
Without Crede the Giants will be lucky to win more than 65 games with that offense. They might have a hard time winning 60.
Posted by: hemingways | March 02, 2008 at 06:59 PM
Just a head up to the writer of the post....Cano was not drafted he was signed out of the dominican
Posted by: MattS6000 | March 02, 2008 at 07:00 PM
"in Crede's last 4 healthy seasons, he hit 32, 34, 25, and 28 hr's."
Did you just make that up or something?
Posted by: nrmax88 | March 02, 2008 at 07:12 PM
Those are actually his walk totals. I would have used the strikeout numbers. Then, Crede has hit 75,81,66 and 58 homeruns in his last four healthy seasons. That's much more impressive. :)
Just messin', everyone makes mistakes.
Posted by: Sesshomaru | March 02, 2008 at 07:28 PM
“Comparing Mora and Inge to Crede isn't wise.”
The past 5 years OPS+ of the 3 players…
Mora ~ 98, 91, 117, 155, 143 (average 121)
Inge ~ 80, 98, 100, 109, 64 (average 90)
Crede ~ 49, 107, 96, 83, 92 (average 85)
…Why isnt it that wise to compare the three? All have comparable OPS+ really (well, Mora is much better but he’s older so…). All three have comparable Def ability. All three make comparable money (although Inge is signed to a long contract, but you don’t have to try to re-up with a Boras client either…). I think the three are about as comparable as you will find, and I think Feliz is a perfect player in this mold as well…
Feliz ~ 81, 79, 85, 100, 102 (average 89)
“Without Crede the Giants will be lucky to win more than 65 games with that offense. They might have a hard time winning 60”
Its hare to imagine Crede is going to have too much of an impact on the club though. And Feliz could have been signed to do the same thing anyway so… Not saying they wont trade for him, I actually think they are foolish enough to do just that, just saying its not going to make a difference and their 3B production is pretty much going to match the 3B production they have gotten the last 5 years…
Posted by: darkstar1661 | March 02, 2008 at 07:43 PM
"Those are actually his walk totals. I would have used the strikeout numbers. Then, Crede has hit 75,81,66 and 58 homeruns in his last four healthy seasons. That's much more impressive. :)"
BTW, that was hilarious!
Posted by: darkstar1661 | March 02, 2008 at 07:49 PM
I just want this to be over with so stupid White Sox fans can stop overrating him and everyone else can stop underrating him.
Posted by: gogopalehose | March 02, 2008 at 08:40 PM
@MattS6000
Fixed that. I confused his reputation as a prospect (specifically, his ranking outside BA's top 100) with draft position (which he did not have; a fact of which I wasn't aware).
Thanks for pointing out my mistake. My goal is to always be 100% accurate (except for my editorializing and speculation, which is wild and crazy ;) ).
Posted by: Matt Birt | March 02, 2008 at 10:05 PM
ggph, I don't think describing "above-average defense" and "a below-average bat" underrates Crede. He's a useful player. Nothing special, but not worthless. Pedro Feliz, a couple years younger, white, and with a bad back. Woo freaking hoo.
Underrating Pedro Feliz is pretty freaking hard. Adding a bad back makes it almost impossible. But -- woah, boy! -- Crede's a white man! The best third baseman of our generation! A-Rod, stand aside!
Cough. White Sox fans. Save me.
Overrating Crede, on the other hand, is easy. "[H]e's an established power hitter?" Yeah, a major-league slugging percentage of .440 just *screams* 'established power hitter.' You know -- just like Pedro Feliz's MLB SLG of..
..wait for it..
.430.
Feliz plays better defense, too. Crede's defense is good, but Feliz has been the best in the game for about three years now.
And I *hate* Pedro Feliz, since his bat is so very putrid.
Ugh, Crede and Feliz. Who the hell ever gave Brian Sabean a job?
Posted by: wcw | March 02, 2008 at 10:55 PM
Joe Crede's doesn't walk a lot, big deal, he hits for a decent average and good power, plays great defense and has a cheap contract, send over a couple decent prospects and throw Crede in the 5 hole and the Giants will be ok.
I just want Josh Fields to get 150 games worth of AB's, that kid's got scary power.
Posted by: Jimmywins1 | March 02, 2008 at 11:08 PM
How exactly is paying $5m for a year of 90 OPS+ 'cheap'?
For a couple decent prospects, I'd want Fields. But then, I don't run the Giants. Brian "$130m to Barry Zito!" Sabean does.
Idiot.
Posted by: wcw | March 02, 2008 at 11:44 PM
I think the media has been stirring the pot on the Crede rumor. Sabean has been rather restrained this season in pursuing free agents. If he was really interested in Crede, then why wouldn't they pursue Morgan Ensberg more, poorer defense, but way better bat, no health issues, and won't cost them a prospect.
And they apparently checked in with Dallas McPherson and mutually agreed to part, which suggests to me that they are really looking more for a backup player in case Frandsen don't do well in spring training and are keeping 3B open in case both Durham and Frandsen do well, and start them respectively at 2B and 3B. That's the only reason I could figure out why McPherson backed off SF so quickly and ended up with Florida for a cheap contract (I thought at first money was why the Giants backed off, else seems like ideal situation for McPherson).
Crede then only happens if Durham totally is incapable of playing AND Velez don't make a good enough impression (but he's playing well right now so that might not pan out either), because if Durham is out of the picture as a starter, they could go with Velez at 2B and Frandsen at 3B.
Of course, right now all that's out the window with Vizquel out and Frandsen starting at SS. But Vizquel is expected back in the back half of April, so the above scenarios still hold, along with the caveat that Crede has to show that his back is OK as well. Plus there's always Aurilia and he could do well in spring as well.
Personally, I don't think the Giants will trade for Crede. They might be eyeing him if he can come cheap enough as backup or if too many guys flop this spring.
However, I think Durham will do enough to convince the Giants that he's OK enough to start at 2B and that Frandsen will hit well enough that the Giants will give him 3B at some point once Vizquel returns. Even if Durham has continued problems with his shoulder, shutting him down for spring, Velez has been doing well thus far and if he continues to do well, would get the start at 2B.
Someone I see as more of a possibility for trade for the Giants is Ben Zobrist of the Rays. He's going to be the utility guy for the Rays, but for the Giants could be insurance in case Vizquel doesn't hit enough to justify starting him or if the injury gets worse for whatever reason. If Vizquel is OK, Zobrist would then be the utility MI for the Giants, plus be in line to start at 3B if Frandsen either can't hit or can't field 3B properly enough. Aurilia, I think, is backup in case Ortmeier don't do well enough at 1B, plus they are preparing Bowker to be an option there by mid-season, and as noted above, Aurilia could also end up at 3B depending on how things work out with Ortmeier at 1B and Aurilia is hitting.
Someone mentioned that the Giants would be lucky to win 60-65 games. Given that the team is expected to have an ERA near 4.00, the team would have to score under 3.5 runs per game to do that, using Pythagorean. Plugging in the projections for the expected lineup for the Giants given current personnel, the Lineup Calculator on Baseball Musing says the lineup will score around 4.0-4.2 runs per game.
So unless the hitters severely miss their projections or the pitchers regress or get injured a lot, the Giants will be closer to 80 wins than they will be to 60 wins.
Posted by: obsessivegiantscompulsive | March 02, 2008 at 11:55 PM
And my point on restraint on free agents (I know Crede is a trade option) is that they could have gotten someone on the free agent market like Ensberg if they really wanted someone to start at 3B for them right now.
Posted by: obsessivegiantscompulsive | March 02, 2008 at 11:56 PM
Here's why Sox fans "overrate" Crede: we've watched this guy go from prospect to underachieving starter. In the last couple of healthy years it looked as though he was putting it all together. He's a guy that's still improving. I would not be surprised at all if next year is his best year so far.
He's got the reputation of an "injury risk," which is true since he's coming off of major surgery. Outside of that, however, he's had a history of playing over 130 games a season. If the surgery was good, he's reliable.
There simply is no overrating of his defensive abilities. Unless a player is ending up on ESPN's top plays every other night, it's hard to gain the reputation of a great fielder. I haven't seen a third baseman this solid on the South Side since Robin Ventura and he was a gold glover.
Posted by: ChiSoxSLIM | March 03, 2008 at 12:05 AM
Hopefully the Giants can get Uribe and Crede since the Sox don't need them.. Still it's going to be near impossible to compete in the West unless Lincecum, and Cain enter their primes and Zito finally earns $1 of that bajillon dollar contract.
Posted by: Giant Deric | March 03, 2008 at 12:06 AM
CANO - MVP
BONDS - SEATTLE
NYY 27/08
Posted by: maximumpotential | March 03, 2008 at 02:07 AM
"CANO - MVP "
Not even on his own team.
"BONDS - SEATTLE "
It makes sense, so theres no chance.
"NYY 27/08 "
They'd have to make the playoffs first and that sure as hell isn't happening. Just start placing bets on the day Hank snaps and walks through the front office with an assault rifle.
Posted by: ArodSucksAtLife | March 03, 2008 at 10:07 AM
why can't the yankees make the playoffs..?
don't the red sox have the same team as last year..?
the red sox only beat the yankees out by 4 games.
both team have almost the same team as last year.
your very ignorant and stupid to say there is no chance.
your an a rod hater, the guy makes the most money in mlb, not only does he makes the most money but he is only 32 with over 500 homers, and one of the best hitters in mlb, plus he is not a bad third baseman.
i really hate when people try to put down a team or a player just because you dislike them, it just shows the kind of person you are.
i'm a yankees fan, if the yankees dont make the playoffs i become a red sox fan, why ..? because they have a great team, nd the management spends the big money to bring star players, just like the yankees, if the red sox dont make it, then im a cubs fan.
you guys need to keep your ignorance to yourself and your family, dont infect the internet
Posted by: BxSquad | March 03, 2008 at 05:25 PM
"Your ignorant," has to be one of the most funny statements ever. When accusing someone of being stupid, it's a good start to use proper grammar. Try "you're" next time. Oh yeah, and stop "infecting the internet" with your bad grammar. ;)
Posted by: ChiSoxSLIM | March 03, 2008 at 06:51 PM
I'm a Sox fan looking in to the Giants' fans point of view. I son't know what the majority of you have seen Crede do, but when the SOX won the World Series he was a mainstay. He's incredible on defense and consistant at the plate. Aaron Rowand will tell anyone who will listen this guy is the real deal. He's been slowed by injuries - but when healthy he's an All Star.
So that said - as long as we're speculating why not dive in with both feet.
The Sox should send you Crede; Konerko, McDougal and Uribe.
The Giants would get clutch hitters with power -a characterisic they lack -on BOTH corners and a sericeable insurance policy in case Vizquel or Durham can't go, and a reliever who has closed in the majors.
For that group the Sox would want Sanchez, Winn, Valdez and Matos.
The Giants can allow Veldez to continue to develop, move Ortmeier to RF and keep the rotation intact.
Crede, Konerko and Uribe will hit AT LEAST 20 HRs.
Why not dive in with both feet?
Posted by: navylifer3 | March 05, 2008 at 10:33 PM