Quiet On The Roberts Front?

In fact, Bleacher Buddha, that would rule out every Cubs prospect in the top 30 except for:
Soto (who isn't going anywhere)
Gallagher
Ceda (acquired in a deal by Hendry)
Veal
Petrick
Patterson
Fuld (who the O's don't want)
Fox (again, likely unwanted)
Hart (who the O's traded away)
Wellington Castillo (but the O's have Wieters)
Ascanio
Lahey

The O's would probably be most interested in Gallagher (of course), Ceda, Veal, Patterson and maybe Petrick. If Ceda really is off the table, then it would seem the Cubs are offering something along the lines of Gallagher, Veal, and Patterson...and Petrick hasn't been able to throw because of some soreness. Maybe Billy Petrick is what's holding things up! Okay, a side note: Petrick did pitch the day the O's scouts came to watch but had to leave after retiring one batter, now they want to stay and scout longer and "see pitchers 2 or 3 times before making a deal". Are they making sure he's healthy and regains his velocity?

I'm not saying, I'm just saying...

Dark. Two problems: (1) You have a serious sample size problem; and (2) Didn't Finley play a mean CF, while Green played a corner?

Does everyone agree at least that Payton is absolutely worthless and that the Cubs would be doing the O's a favor by taking him? He has no value whatsoever in this trade...unless its negative anyway.

Steve Finley was a great defensive CF...and was so until he was in his late 30's. Green had a few years that skewed his carreer numbers a bunch...

either way, comparing him to them in thier prime is a much bigger compliment from a scout than it is to say "he could be Ryan Church". They mean that he could be an all star player who can play CF, play a great defensive corner outfield spot, is a great athlete, and hit for average and power. Thats what they are getting at...so OPS+ is kind of irrelevant here.

Either way, I'm sticking to my statement that McFailure would jump at Gallagher, Ceda, and Patterson.

By the way Dark, where do you see the O's asking for BOTH Gallagher and Pie? It might have said they were interested in both of them, but I don't think they ever asked for both in a package as far as I can remember. Cedeno and Gallagher are the two most mentioned names, the Pie stuff seems to have died completely, and now they are talking about Patterson and some others. Is there anything published saying they have any interest in Colvin?

Adun, I think the Cubs would have absolutely no problem walking away from Payton. That they could get a top prospect by including him in the deal is absolutely laughable. You're version of the deal is starting to make sense to me...I'm beginning to think I may have been wrong here. I 'm starting to doubt that Colvin is involved. I'm not sure why the O's would want him when Reimold is probably a 1/2 year closer to the bigs than Colvin -- and he's a top 100 prospect himself. In the end, it's probably going to to go back to McPhail stockpiling arms. Old habits die hard.

Adun. We don't need Payton. There are plenty of options left out there. Crisp, Byrd, Reed Johnson, Reggie Willits, Kenny Lofton. The market for defensive and/or sparkplug CF is even a little better than I thought it would be at this point. (Although I don't think of Cedeno being a real backup. He can, but that's it.)

Anyway, our hands are tied, we have to resolve the Roberts thing first.
Then again, maybe we look too dependent on McPhail. Getting a Lofton or Crisp, while more insurance for us, may put some pressure on McPhail and make him blink. We'll be like: "Hey, dude, we can grab some other guys and keep Gallagher for our rotation!" McPhail gets worried and the scales tip in our favor a little...

If the Roberts trade officially falls through, the Cubs sign Kenny Lofton the next day, don't they? Kenny's gotta love the opportunity in Chicago; I'm sure he will not accept any mediocre offers before seeing what goes down with the Cubs leadoff spot.

(I don't mind a Pie/Lofton platoon. That's not stunting Pie; it's teaching him.)

I think McFailure would know better Jr...because everyone and thier grandmothers know that we have no room in our rotation for Gallagher this year. Its been widely publicized that its between the three veterans, and Marshall has an outside shot (which he doesn't because he is left handed for one thing...but they want to make him feel better before his trip to the pen/minors)

I really think that a Marshall+Murton package should have some pretty decent value to a team out there...why don't they ask for Byrd + B prospect for those two...its not like they can use Marshall anyway.

And by the way, I brought up Payton a long time ago myself...I just hadn't researched the guy and haven't know what he has been doing for years...now that I know, I want nothing to do with him. At least Byrd has SOME upside and hits lefties well, which is the whole point in bringing a guy like this over...

jr, I agree, there's plenty of CF'ers out there so I don't see how the O's have the Cubs over a barrel on Payton. I'd just as soon get Willits for Marshall...or even Brian Anderson is having a great spring. Reed Johnson can be had on the cheap, he doesn't play a lot of CF but all we'd ask him to do is spell Pie against some lefties. The Rangers may come down on Byrd...I'm not sure about Lofton though, which one plays against lefties? Him or Pie?

I think Hanley might be heading to CF himself. I hate the position switching.

Lofton costs us nothing. Nothing.

Ramirez signed for $439K. Dempster/Gallagher/Cedeno or Pie. He isn't really a defensive star, is he? Could he be signed for salary of Dempster (5.3MM)+Gallagher (?)+Cedeno (400K). We'd lose Pie (probably) or Cedeno and Gallagher of our future for 1 year of experienced Ramirez. Would need to sign him.

Good God! I go away for a few hours and everything goes to hell! Crunchy! Dark! Chill the F*@k out! I don't know where to start with all the comments I just read to catch up. Did someone seriously say that Patterson 'projects' to put up Roberts-type numbers? Says who? On second thought, don't tell me. I know enough idiots; I don't need to hear from another. And I've never heard anything about Tim Wilken picks somehow being ineligible for trades. I'm not saying it's impossible, but it sure sounds wrong...and nonsensical. I'm not taking sides, but Crunchy is right about one thing- numbers really don't tell the whole story. Darkstar, your points are well stated and you back them up nicely, but Ryan Church is NOT the kind of player Finley or Green were. That being said, while BA noted that Colvin reminded them of Finley/Green, he's a looooong way from reaching that point. The Ryan Church thing was tangential to the actual conversation, which was Colvin and his upside. Darkstar correctly pointed out that somewhere down the line (2, 3, even 4 years down the line...if things break right and if he ever figures out how to lay off a pitch) Colvin MIGHT turn into something half decent. Ryan Church is good compromise comparison- somewhere between utter crap and Sean Green at his best. Based on the Cubs' track record with player development, however, even that is a pretty big 'if.' Wilken has shown a nice eye for talent, but that's a little misleadng. First, while TB's system IS rated the best in baseball, they have yet to actually produce a legit stud major leaguer. Kazmir is the best player they've got and he was a Mets farmhand. Second, a considerable portion of TB's talent was the direct result of years of futility and top 5 picks- an area that's as close to can't miss as there is in the draft. Third- and here I need some help- I don't know if Wilken brought along his whole scouting staff or not, but he's just one guy. As any intelligent fan knows, a great organization is built on the backs of many. Did Wilken bring his crosscheckers? His area scouts? I don't know. I'm actually asking a question, so maybe this point isn't valid, but the changes that need to be made are institutional and can't be fixed by Wilken alone.

Finally,
Adun- I can tell you what I heard, which is that the O's have asked about Gallagher (duh), Pie/Colvin, and Ceda, (and maybe Marshall; I forget). Reports were that they initially asked for Pie, Gallagher, Ceda, and Patterson/Cedeno. I also heard that they wanted Rich Hill, but I don't think anyone actually thought that was going to happen. Patterson/Cedeno was only part of the deal so that the O's had SOMEONE to play in the middle infield this year (though Luis Hernandez is a clear future HOFer, don't you think?!) As far as all that goes, darkstar is correct- at least as far as I heard. Stands to reason that they wouldn't drop their demands TOO far below that or change them TOO dramatically (Reimold or not, OF is where the Cubs' top prospects not named Vitters seem to be and the O's are so bad that they need to stockpile talent regardless of position). Either way, my point here is that Pie and Gallagher together (with an additional piece or two, depending who you ask) was a package that the O's broached with Hendry. And, as I've said again and again, it's not going to be a question of the Cubs passing on Payton (or not). I think Payton gets involved on YOUR end- i.e. McPhail wants Colvin, Gallagher, Cedeno, and possibly a fourth and Hendry says 'if we're going to give you all that, you gotta throw in Payton.' At least that way, you fill another need. Whether or not the O's wind up paying Payton's contract or picking up Marquis'- that's anyone's guess. OK, I'm done. Ha!

OK, not quite done. Milburn- what are you talking about. Are you asking about HANLEY Ramirez. If so...no. First off, with the Marlins getting their stadium deal, it looks like they're actually going to pay a star for once...and Hanley's that star. Also, you really don't have the players to get Ramirez. Maybe if some of the kids- Vitters, Smardzija, Thomas, Donaldson- develop, but even then...? And I'm not sure what you're asking about cost, but if Hanley hit the FA market, you're talking about a Miguel Cabrera-esque contract. Dempster, Gallagher, Cedeno, and Pie. Whether you're asking if their salaries combined would equal what Hanley would cost or if you're asking if that would be a package that might net you Hanley, the answer is an unequivocable NO! NOW I'm done. Sorry. I really do get long winded talking baseball.

Besides which, the O's are signing Ramirez! (LOL)

Seriously though, is Atlanta going to sign Teixeira? I though they'd have done it by now and it's starting to give me hope. I hate that! Watch. It'll get down to the last minute and Teixeira will start dropping hints in the press about how it'll be great to play in his home town and then BAM!...Atlanta will sign him to a monster deal and crush my spirit.

"Seriously though, is Atlanta going to sign Teixeira? I though they'd have done it by now and it's starting to give me hope. I hate that! Watch. It'll get down to the last minute and Teixeira will start dropping hints in the press about how it'll be great to play in his home town and then BAM!...Atlanta will sign him to a monster deal and crush my spirit."

You wont need him, will you? I think you will probably be better off if he did resign with Atl...

But, I actually kind of think that the O's will be the surprise team that does near anything to land CC if he goes to the FA market. They traded their ace, reluctantly, for the better of the club; but were willing to spend the money to keep him just the same. If you take that money and add CC to the top of the rotation, plus bring a couple of the kids along properly; well you could see an extremly strong rotation come 2009/2010. What young hitters you have should have shown if they are in the longterm future by then, and you will better know what holes need to be filled from the FA market for a playoff push. With the Yankees possibly in rebuild mode ATM, and Boston having some major turnover between now and then ~ well... It might be a timeline to try and strike, and a CC signing would help do just that.

Balt can A) spend rather freely (obviously) and B) has 1-2 years to figure things out/get development time in. I dont count it out, at all...

Sherill? Scott? All the high-minors pitchers they targeted? Jones? It just seems they are looking for more of a quick rebuild and push in near future than a long, drawn out one that focuses more on 2011-2012…

milehigh78, if that's what darkstar meant about Colvin/Church/Finley/Green than that's what he should say. But he didn't. Saying Colvin may ultimately end up like Church because of the Cubs poor history of developing players, isn't the same as saying "Colvin has the upside of Church" -- then trying to fix it by saying that "Church is somewhere in between Finley and Green". That being said, I can agree with your interpretation, it's Church as a compromise to Colvin's wide range of possibilities makes sense, but it's not his "upside". Had darkstar said what you said, milehigh, there wouldn't have been an argument. You cleaned up his mess quite nicely. I'm satisfied with your interpretation.

This has got to end soon. 24 days til Opening Day!

Also Dark, its not just about numbers when a scout says he could be Green or Finley in thier prime. Its the type of players that they are, meaning the things they were good at could be the things he is good at. Its not about numbers...its a lot more than that.

The Cubs, by the way, just made their first cuts of the spring. Among the cuts: Billy Petrick, Jose Ceda, and Tyler Colvin. Petrick was the biggest surprise so early in camp considering he was a roster player with experience. Ceda and Colvin are obviously not ready for the majors. If McPhail was scouting those guys this spring, he couldn’t have been too impressed.

They said they wanted Ceda to not worry about making the team and to work on improving his breaking pitch. They consider both he and Petrick "long term players" and would rather have them work on improving, rather than rushing them to the bigs. Makes sense to me. The Cubs have other options who are more ready to contribute early in the season.

I should post I did not expect guys like Ceda, Petrick (injury) Colvin, Smardzija (when he gets cut) to make it or to be rushed.

I'm wondering if something like Gallagher, Marshall, Veal, Patterson would get us Roberts and Payton. As I've stated and backed up, Payton is a burden on whichever team he is on, and the O's would be happy to give him away to the Cubs. but I agree crunch, with all of this I'm not totally sure that its as close as we were hoping. I also heard that we still have scouts in texas to watch byrd believe it or not.

I'll wait and see. It does look 'iffy'. I can see it going through or falling through without a real sense of a sure thing until something official is announced either way.

“Dark, I don't remember anything saying Gallagher and Pie...I just remember them saying they had interest in Pie, and probably Gallagher too, obviously, but I don't believe there is anything saying that they asked for both in a package.”

…Don’t know what to tell you, heard multiple times they were asking for something like Pie + Gallagher + Pitcher ~ and MileHigh confirmed he remembers the same…

“Also Dark, its not just about numbers when a scout says he could be Green or Finley in thier prime. Its the type of players that they are, meaning the things they were good at could be the things he is good at. Its not about numbers...its a lot more than that.”

…Uhh, that’s what I said ~ its about “ability”, not numbers as much. Ability is reflected in the percentage numbers, not the raw stats. But like I said, “could be Green or Finley” is about like saying “could be Bonds or Pierre” ~ its about as big of an ability range as you can find, the two had different skill sets across the board. It was just one of the absolutely asinine things to try to interject into this conversation, its contradictory to itself in as many ways as possible so its one of those things you read out of a BA writeup and really have to think “well that doesn’t make sense, that’s just reaching for something to say”… Again, ones good at 2B/3B, ones good at HR. Ones good with a high BB but also K rate, ones a contact hitter. Ones a ++Def in CF, ones a fair to sometimes plus corner guy. Its about as open as you can get.

And let us not forget, its your “updise” explanation of 20-25 HR power with CF capable compiled with the struggles with BB/K and vs Lefties that has pretty much left us with Church’s “ability”. Whether Church has played 162 games or not is beside the point as no one is anywhere trying to predict future playing time, but “ability” says about Church…

And Crunchy, man you say some stupid runaround and overall questionable shyt in your pitiful attempts to fulfill your obsession of trying to attack me… Its hard to take things you say seriously when so much of it is just showing nothing more than fantasy-driven homerism or an obsession with me…

I think Bleacher Buddha is on the job on the Wilken thing. It would change the dynamics of the trade but the O's can still come out of this with good players. Ceda, Veal, Petrick, Patterson, Castillo, and Burke would still be in play. So would Pie. Pie's a longshot but there's a rumor in Chicago that there is a split on the CF of the future. The old guard favors Pie, the new guard, of course, favors Colvin.
One thing that McPhail liked when he was here in Chicago was the long, lean, high ceiling projectable pitcher. He also acquired a couple of good ones in Tillman and Butler from Seattle. If the Wilken's agrreement is true, that would leave out Huseby but Veal is still a possibility. And he was drafted during the McPhail regime. With the season long loss of Patton, I would think he would insist on Veal to help replace that. Gallagher would replace Patton in the sense that they have a similar ceiling and are both ready to pitch in the MLB. That he would want Veal makes more sense to me than Ceda or Colvin. But I'm just guessing.

dark, let's just talk baseball. Truce? Anyway, I do agree with what you said about Colvin in your last post. He isn't ready. He was considered pretty raw for a college guy when he was drafted and he still has just one full year as a professional. He's got a lot to learn before he's a bona fide major leaguer. He needs to be in a learning environment where he can just concentrate on honing his skills. I actually said something similar regarding Ceda and Petrick. I'm glad they sent them all down early. And yeah, the Cubs having players sent down has no bearing on whether or not they can be scouted by the O's. But they all pretty much proved they won't be ready to help the O's anytime soon. It depends on what McPhail wants. With the exception of the three young pitchers he got from Seattle, everyone he's acquired has been a ML ready player - or at least pretty close to it. I don't know what they're saying in Baltimore but it looks to me like he's looking for a short term rebuilding project.