Free Agent Stock Watch: Derek Lowe

I could see Lowe fronting the Nats rotation.

You cant adovocate letting Perez walk because of inconsistency and then sign Ben Sheets, a guy from whom you are only going to get 23 or 24 starts maximum. Sabathia makes a little more sense, but retaining Perez makes the most sense. They arent going to throw huge dollars at Sabathia and have 2 monster contracts in their rotation. Perez would probably cost 14-15M a year, Sabathia will likely cost 20 or 21. Speaking of Derek Lowe, I think he makes much more sense then Sabathia or Sheets. As for Perez, he makes more sense then them all (for the Mets).

Ben Sheets is a pretty good comparable to ollie for the last 3 years. They have had roughly the same amount of starts and innings pitched. Sheets numbers have been much better though when he's on the mound. Perez is a nice pitcher, but he is going to get a much larger deal than he deserves. Last years 15-10 season is only his second winning season. The mets are much better off spending the extra 4 million a year or so for sheets and seeing much more consistancy from outing to outing. Besides, they'll probably make out by gaining a supplemental pick in the deal.

If the Mets let Perez walk and sign a guy like Sheets they will (in a best case scenario) come out even.

They will lose a pick for CC or Sheets. Then they have to hope that top 15 team signs Perez.

It's entirely likely that going after Sheets will cost you $3-5m/year more than Perez AND you lose your first round pick.

Lowe would be a good fit with the Nationals - he could serve as a Rogers-style mentor to their young pitching staff - but I don't think Washington would give him three years.

You say that Perez will be overpaid, and that the Mets would be better off paying an extra 4 million per for Sheets. That is a joke. Sheets really doesnt deserve much more then 10 million per year on his next contract. He hasnt started more then 24 games, or pitched more then 150 innings since 2004. He is a gigantic risk. Atleast Perez will give you starts every 5th day if nothing else.

And to compare their starts over the last 3 years is also incredibly narrow minded. How can you compare the starts when A) Perez is a project that was in and out of the minors for the better part of your sample size, and B) Sheets was hurt for half of your sample size, so that fact that they made a similar amount of starts is really nothing more then coincidence.

Perez will be only 27 when he signs his next contract. Sheets will be 30. So lets look things through, and see which guy logically could be the better choice for the Mets.

You have 2 incredibly talented pitchers here. Both with ace type stuff and potential but both with issues. Sheets has had more success at the ML level since he has come up, but has been plagued by injuries for the last 3 years pretty much non-stop.

Perez on the other hand had big time success as a 20 or 21 year old on an awful team, and then after having his motion and arsenal tweaked with a little bit started to sturggle big time and eventually lost his job and went to the minors. He re-emerged at the end of 2006 and was pretty solid, though also was shelled a few times in a small sample size of starts. Pitched 2 strong games against the Cards in the NLCS.

Came back in 2007 and had some bad moments, but overall he has a really solid year. Defintely showed that he still has top of the rotation ability and the stuff isnt gone.

So here is the scenario. Assuming that Perez puts up another solid season (190 IP, 3.50 era/ 1.30 whip and 185 K's),and to be fair, all of this is assuming that Perez posts another solid season like last year. If Perez gets hurt and misses significant time, then this is all moot. Lets say Sheets makes 26 starts and goes 160 IP 3.30/1.15.

So if I am trying to choose bwteen those 2, I am looking at these thing.

Sheets- Great stuff, definite ace when out there. Probably cost an extra 3-4 mil over Perez annualy. Very injury prone, hasnt thrown 200 innings in 4 years, and will be signed into his mid-late 30's.

Perez- Also great stuff, not as good at utilizing it as Sheets. Known to be wild. Will sign for a little bit less money then Sheets, and save you your draft pick. Will make more starts then Sheets will, and throw more innings. Has pitched in big games in NY and worked well with their pitching coach. " Can he handle NY?" Is not a question that you have to wonder with Perez. He is 27 and will be signed through his prime years and into his early 30's.

All in all, I wouldnt be happy at all if the Mets opted for Sheets over Perez. If they have a big time draft and feel like they have pitching help on the way in the next 2 to 3 years and would rather opt for the cheaper and safer solution of Lowe in a 2 or 3 year deal, I couldnt complain, but would still prefer them to just re-sign Perez. Sabathia is out of the question in my eyes.

Thoughts on Lowe:

1. Lowe has pitched well enough to win 17-20 games for each of the last 3 years, but has been abused by a lack of run support.

2. Lowe is a bit like Jake Peavy Light. He is a sinkerballer with control who gets lots of ground outs but also has enough velocity and movement to strike people out. That combination makes him good in any park.

3. I just don't see how the Dodgers can resign him, even if they want to. Penny is the ace, Billingsley will work out of his control issues, Kuroda is signed for 2 years beyond this year and Kershaw is going to have a spot next year no matter what. That leaves Lowe potentially in the 5th spot in the rotation. I don't see the Dodgers wanting to spend the kind of money Lowe deserves for that and I don't see Lowe taking the demotion. Unless Saito suddenly retires and Lowe moves back into the 'pen to set up Broxton, there just isn't a place for him.

4. Where Lowe fits in. The Angels could potentially slot Lowe into their rotation given Escobar's injury issues and in the even they can't resign Garland. The issue there is that Saunders is finally getting some respect and they want Santana to be a starter in the worst way. Unless they don't resign K-Rod and bite the bullet on sending Santana down to close (a bad thing, seeing that he is a rhythm pitcher), probably not. I actually see Lowe potentially going back to the Red Sox. Schilling is done, Wakefield is barely serviceable and you still have question marks other than Beckett. Lowe loved Boston and he would probably slot right back in.

hey, AA, please reconsider. the Dodgers have every need for Lowe in terms of pitching depth, which has been our Achilles Heel in the Colletti era, even more than run support. can you say Tomko and Henrickson as 2/5 of your rotation?
for '09, our rotation would be: penny, billz, lowe, kuroda and kershaw. OF COURSE HE FITS! who's the fifth starter? loaiza? kuo (who is great but has 3 surgeries on the same elbow)? the ever-reliable schmidt?

plus, with hu replacing kent, we go from a minus defender at 2nd to a gold glove-caliber shortstop. lowe is affected more than any other pitcher by the middle infielders behind him. check out the #s on him, and you will see his value will go up or at least not decline by much at all. with all our bad contracts (nomar, pierre, schmidt, jones -- for a whopping total of $54 million), this one would be about quality.