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Free Agent Stock Watch: Jon Garland

One thing Jon Garland has going for him is his age.  He'll spend the 2009 season as a 29 year-old.  Only a few other free agent starters will be under 30 that year: Oliver Perez (27), Mark Prior (27), and C.C. Sabathia (28).  A team that can't afford Sabathia but misses out on Perez might turn to Garland.

Garland is an innings eater, having topped 210 in each of the last three seasons.  His low strikeout rate leads to plenty of hits, but he balances that with good control.  His groundball rate had been on the decline from 2005-07, but he's at an elite 55% this year.  On the other hand, he's whiffed just four in 30.3 innings (easily the worst K/9 in baseball). 

If the oddities balance out and he has a typical Garland season, Carlos Silva's four-year, $48MM deal might be the comparable.


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the Angels have been after Garland for, what, 3 years? i dont think there's much of a chance that he walks away, if he has a respectable year.
on the other hand, if the Halos do resign him, he may be blocking Nick Adenhart... i'm sure they'd find a way to make it work

Houston pursued him last off-season, so I could see them making an offer if he reaches free agency.

Then again, that was under Purpura, but they still need pitching, so it's feasible, at the least.

I am split on whether the Angels will resign Garland or not. Assuming they let Garret Anderson go or he takes a pay cut to stay, that clears up a chunk of change to pay a free agent, whether in house or outside. Most of the Angels' money is tied up in the outfield and Garland at this point, as the infield is a combination of non-arb eligibles and Chone Figgins who is tied up on the cheap. If Weaver works out of his little funk and Saunders and Santana keep pitching they way they have been, I see Garland becoming expendable given that Adenhart will be absolutely MLB ready next year. Even depth shouldn't be an issue as Nick Green looks to be good fifth starter material.

Getting rid of Anderson isn't about the money - it's about clearing up an outfield spot and DHing Vlad, who is clearly feeling those years of playing of turf. The Angel's have finally developed some young OF talent, and it should be ready by next year.

Although the young core of the staff is good, we haven't heard to final word on Escobar. He could still need surgery, or a trip to the bullpen might be in order. Also, we've yet to see post-injury Lackey. I think if Garland has a solid year, they extend him, depending on what kind of years he's looking at.

Garland resigning will depend on:

-- Escobar's recovery
-- Lackey's durability
-- Santana's performance

If 2 out of the 3 work out in the Angels favor then Garland is expendable and hopefully nets them a 1st round pick. If only 1 of the 3 work out then I can see him being resigned.

Gutterbumber:

Just about the easiest way to get Vlad to not resign after next year is to tell him that he is going to DH. He still loves playing defense and can still throw with the best of them. They are going to continue with him in right most of the time for the foreseeable future, with the rotating DH thing likely to stick around until Matthews' contract is over or Vlad retires.

Bjsguess:

I really don't think Lackey is too much to worry about. There are plenty of pitchers who have had a relatively minor injury force them out of action, only to come back as strong or stronger. Just look at Brad Penny. Lackey's first rehab start went just fine, so he isn't a worry. Santana looks like the pitcher he was projected to be and Saunders is finally getting some respect. I just don't see a need to pay Garland the 12 million or so he is going to command when you have Adenhart and Green behind an excellent top 4, even assuming Escobar doesn't come back.

The reality is, the Angels are pretty set as it is right now. Who cares if Figgins doesn't fit the 3B prototype of a lumbering slugger. He has turned into an elite hitter for average and has top flight speed to go along with quick feet, soft hands and a rocket arm. Plus, you get power out of all 3 outfielders, the DH, both catchers and 1B(Kotchman's numbers compare favorably with Morneau's). Kendrick is going to win batting titles and probably turn into a 20HR/50 Double guy and Aybar has nearly limitless potential at short. No need to mess around with that.

“Just about the easiest way to get Vlad to not resign after next year is to tell him that he is going to DH. He still loves playing defense and can still throw with the best of them.”

…Yeah, too bad no one knows where the throws will end up though… I cringe every time he gets the ball with a runner on second, almost expecting the ball to land about three rows into the stands…


“Who cares if Figgins doesn't fit the 3B prototype of a lumbering slugger. He has turned into an elite hitter for average and has top flight speed to go along with quick feet, soft hands and a rocket arm.”

…Figgy really has to be kept. Its amazing how under-appreciated this guy is with most baseball fans; but the fact that he has ended up in the top-25 in MVP voting in 3 of the last 4 years shows atleast the people who count know how much he means to the team. Play him at 3B, play him in CF, play him in left; shoot, play him at 2B if you can put up with the lesser D ~ the guy needs to be around though. Out of all the positional players, he is the one that would be the hardest to replace.


And Garland is just not needed in Anaheim since he is going to cost so much cash. Anaheim had pitching depth and can make good pitchers out of slightly lesser guys because of the park they play in ~ why waste the money? Artie is a business man first, who is a complete tight-wad with his wallet (I mean, we have major Rat problems because you don’t want to pay the cleaning crew the overtime to clean up the isles after the game like all the other owners do? Give me a break you F*ing cheapskate!!!). Well, resigning Garland will end up meaning other talent walks or is not brought in ~ that would be a huge mistake…

Moreno, for all his personal flaws and the vermin issue (which has always been an issue at The Big A), has shown a willingness to open his deep pockets for talent, simply because essentially stole the Angels from Disney given the price paid. I really don't see him giving a damn what Garland costs if he is worth it. The issue is, Garland is suddenly the 5th best starter when Lackey comes back and is the 6th best next year with Adenhart.

As for Vlad, we all know he can be a bit wild with the throws at times, but he seems to have toned it down this year, with 3 assists already and no errors. I think the whole rotating outfield thing shook him up a bit and he has refocused on defense. Further, he has hit 40 points lower for his career as a DH.

On Figgy, nice to see you agree there. The Angels were right to ask Aramis Ramirez and more when the Cubs came calling. Figgins has turned into the premier lead off man in baseball and can play anywhere on the field. What the Angels should do now is sign him to a hometown discount extension and trade Wood for something worthwhile before people start noticing the holes in his swing.

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