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Oswalt Staying Put

Last night on Baseball Tonight, Peter Gammons suggested that Roy Oswalt might become available and that he was willing to waive his no-trade clause.

The Astros, however, are far from cashing in their chips.  They've won their last four and have no intention of trading Oswalt.  Oswalt is signed through 2011 with a full no-trade clause.  Oswalt repeated his stance from last year - he'd consider waiving it if the Astros approached him (and if the acquiring team is the Cardinals, Braves, or Red Sox).  I imagine most players feel this way.  It's a moot point right now; Ed Wade isn't considering trading him.

Oswalt seemed like the one true healthy ace who might be available come July.  I'll touch on the remaining options in the next MLB Roundup.


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I gotta admit... Oswalt would look dead sexy in a Braves uniform.

Jordan Schafer, Julio Teheran, Cole Rohrbrough, Brent LIllibridge and Tommy Hanson for Oswalt and Bourn..?

The Braves then get Bourn to plug into center with Heyward and Francoeur on the corners, and Oswalt goes into a great rotation with Hudson, Smoltz, Glavine and Jurrjens. Then maybe they could shop Matt Diaz for relief help and use Brandon Jones as the fourth outfielder.

But Bourn would play left short term until Heyward was ready to take over. Kotsay would stay in center, then either when Kotsay leaves or when Heyward is ready then Bourn would move back to center. Diaz could still man left if Heyward wasn't ready and Kotsay left.

Make it happen Wren.

that would be a hell of a haul for the astros. i would love to see Oswalt in a braves uni but selling the farm twice in under a year would be tough, but would make the braves a hell of a lot better though too

I think thats some of the teams he would go for, since they all content every year. But I know he said that he would love to play with Jake Peavy, so SD might have a shot, but than again who wants to play for a team that can't to save itself score any runs.

Scribble i think thats a start if you were getting Oswalt alone, asking for Bourn too might be over doing it. I only say that cause of the haul the O's got for Bedard.

I can't see that deal happening as suggested. Schafer is the only top 100 prospect and his status gets a huge downgrade because of HGH. Put Heyward or Jurrjens in there instead, then you're talking.

That's pretty much the whole farm system for Oswalt. If I were the 'Stros I'd take it in a second, too. I just don't think the Braves would give up that much in one deal.

I'll vote for an Oswalt trade to replace the finally-retired Schilling as the right handed power veteran pitcher.

No chance the Astros would take quantity over quality for a franchise pitcher like Oswalt. There would have to be a big-time top 100 prospect like Heyward or a promising big league ready young pitcher like Jurrjens.

The Astros have a pretty bad farm system, but the one thing they do have plenty of is outfielders (Iorg, Paraz, Einertson, Van Ostrand, and Flores). Not that these guys are Jason Heyward, but I would suppose the 'Stros would be looking for infield and top shelf starting talent. And something closer to the majors than a low A ball guy....

How about Jon Lester, Jed Lowrie, Coco Crisp or Brandon Moss, and Dustin Richardson for Oswalt?

Tall,

That's not a bad starting point for the Astros, who could use Lowrie at third or shorstop, depending on what they do with Wigginton, and Lester would be a solid pitcher, but wouldn't replace what they'd get with Oswalt. I think the Astros would insist on another prospect, not an outfielder, as they're set there for the next 5 years or so. They'd probably want another pitcher, meaning any deal would have to have Michael Bowden and another pitcher.

If the Astros were going to trade Oswalt, they should (would?) have done it last year, and the best team would have been the Red Sox. They probably could have asked for Buccholz and Lowrie, maybe even a little more, if they got Buccholz before he was bumped to the majors (don't get me wrong, Buccholz is a great talent, but the Red Sox have been interested in Oswalt in the past and he's an established great pitcher signed well below market price).

Here's an interesting possibility - the Rays trade for Oswalt so they get an established, talented, relatively cheap vet to lead their cadre of young pitchers. They could send Reignac, Niemann, and someone else in return (and then take Tim Beckham with their 1st overall pick).

But it will never happen. Drayton MacLane won't let the Astros re-build (why do you think they gutted an already week farm system this offseason? He wants to win now and win always). So Oswalt and Berkman are staying put. Look for the Astros to make a run at one of the bigger free agent starting pitchers this offseason (probably not Sabathia, maybe Sheets if he stays relatively healthy). Plus, with Oswalt, Berkman, Lee, Pence, Tejada, Towles, and Bourn, they have a decent nucleus for next year. But they need another starter.

Dustin Richardson is a pitcher. Highly ranked in the organization and playing well at 24 in AA. Brandon Moss has been playing first in AAA this year. If it comes down to Bowden or Richardson I guess I'm not too far off.

@ mymrbig, didn't you read the article, Oswalt doesn't want to go to the Rays. And Buchholz (one c, two h's) was not even going to be traded for Santana. Sorry.

Someone said earlier, that the Astros would want a Bedard type package, and I'd actually say the Astros would want more, due to him being signed to an affordable long term deal (though the affordability would probably change).

The O's got the M's #1 and #2 prospects (per Baseballprospectus), plus a solid reliever and two other decent prospects.

So start thinking #1 and #2 prospects plus another top 10 and a top 20.

Lester, Lowrie, Crisp/Moss and Richardson doesn't even come close to this....

Moss is organizational filler and Richardson isn't much better than the guys the Astros already have (Norris, Trinidad, or James). Lowrie's going to end up at 2nd (the Astros have Matt Cusik) and Lester's highly over-rated (mainly by BoSox fans).

***I forgot to add Collin DeLome to the list of Astros minor league outfielders....he could end up being the best one.

Sox have a glut of B level prospects stashed throughout A/AA. I'd imagine any Oswalt offer would start at Lester, a top 5 pitching prospect, another top 10 prospect and maybe another top 25 guy or perhaps we eat a bad contract.

Who knows how it'd work out.

If the deal is right, Ed Wade trades in a heartbeat. Oswalt's career has been on a decline, so this could be good for prospective teams trying to trade for him. As a Braves fan, I'd part ways with Kelly Johnson, Jordan Schaffer, and either Morton or Hanson to give them a pitching prospect in return.

I don't see why people keep thinking Oswalt is going anywhere.

The Astros did their equivalent of an "All in" last offseason when they acquired Tejeda, Valverde, Matsui, Bourn, etc. They committed to winning now, and they can't just reverse course; they're committed.

I agree with Devish, sort of. If somehow they tank, then and lose 20 in a row, then we should revisit this. But they've won 5 in a row, and are by no means dead in the water.

I'm not saying their NL Central favorites, but their offense is clicking and their starting pitching is holding up right now. All this can change, but until then.....Oswalt, Berkman, and Fat Lee is staying.

Darin, honestly you are going to bank on Matt Cusi(c)k who is actually playing 2nd base in A- ball? I think Lowrie would take over at 3rd for the Astros right now.

not that I think the Oswalt trade will happen anytime soon either... maybe at the deadline.

Lowrie might be able to take over at 3rd. Though I'm not even sure how many games he's even played there. Lowrie's a good/solid minor league bat and it might carry him at 3rd in the majors, but his glove might not. I don't know since he's never really played there, but that has nothing to do with Cusick, who's not going to play 3rd.

My comment was that the Astros have a guy at 2nd in the minors (who may end up getting a taste of AA this year if he keeps it up), and that they should look to 1.)either get the best prospect available regardless of position or 2.)get prospects that fill their needs....and 2nd base isn't a huge need and can EASILY be filled, rather cheaply through Free Agency most years.

If that package of Lester, Lowrie and insert filler/garbage, was really offered, to me, Lowrie would be the centerpeice, seeing that Lester is a poor man's Wandy Rodriguez.

So basically the Astros would get a guy that'll probably be league average hitter and below average fielder at 3rd (ie, slightly better Ty Wigginton) and a back of the rotation lefty. So why do that deal, when there's probably either better prospects that fit the Astros needs either in that organization or in another teams (such as the Braves).

If I'm the Stros I'm going to the Braves looking for Yunel Escobar and Jurrens...even if that means packaging other players and putting money into it.

"@ mymrbig, didn't you read the article, Oswalt doesn't want to go to the Rays. And Buchholz (one c, two h's) was not even going to be traded for Santana. Sorry."

First of all, you accuse somebody of not even reading the post, and then you dont read the comment you are responding too. Funny.

He said this could have happened before Buchholz got the call to the majors, which is reasonable. And also, the fact that they wouldnt trade him for Santana isnt a legit arguement to me, because I can make an arguement that at the time Santana was traded, Oswalt was more valuable then Johan was.

"And also, the fact that they wouldnt trade him for Santana isnt a legit arguement to me, because I can make an arguement that at the time Santana was traded, Oswalt was more valuable then Johan was."

why would oswalt be more valuable? because of the contract? i wouldnt want my team trading for oswalt, nearly everyone of his stats has steadily declined each of the last 4 years. while santana is in his prime and is much more dominant.

How is Oswalt in a steady decline over the past 4 years?

ERA / IP / WHIP

2004: 3.49 / 237 / 1.24
2005: 2.94 / 241 / 1.20
2006: 2.98 / 220 / 1.17
2007: 3.18 / 212 / 1.33

That's about as consistent as a person can be. When you look at the key measurements from 2007 and compare it against his career averages he was within 10% (+ or -) of his norms. What drove his WHIP up last year was a higher than normal walk rate.

The guy is 29, a proven winner, and signed to a decent contract. He is worth significantly more than Bedard IMO and possibly more than Santana to a team with tight budget constraints.

The Astros have become the Orioles of the NL.

High payroll, management and fan base (primarily management though) living in a fantasy world, not much to get excited about down on the farm. This model will lead to perpetual mediocrity.

It took until this off-season for the O's to finally get it. Trading Bedard and Tejada were both brilliant moves. They need to move another 6 or 7 guys to complete the transformation. With a young team and CASH available to sign the right FA's the O's can transform themselves to jokers to players in a few years time.

"why would oswalt be more valuable? because of the contract? i wouldnt want my team trading for oswalt, nearly everyone of his stats has steadily declined each of the last 4 years. while santana is in his prime and is much more dominant."

aside from bjsguess's stats, which put together a good arguement, i have a question for you: how far has johan gone in the playoffs? oswalt has an nlcs trophy on his resume, and has pitched well enough to have a cy young on top of that. he's a proven big game pitcher, and was one of, if not the biggest reason the astros went to the world series. can't really say the same thing for johan

I read his post nrmax88. He was suggesting the Rays when the article said Oswalt was only interested in 3 teams- not the Rays.

When people speak of Oswalt's decline they are speaking of his strikeout rate mainly, which has decreased four years running. I still consider him pretty close to an ace though.

That's true Tim, but that doesn't take into consideration the fact that he doesn't care about strikeouts, he pitches to contact more and more, so of course his K rate is going to go down. He's becoming more efficient with his pitches, think a poor man's greg maddux with a 95mph fastball. He's an awesome big game pitcher, a great competitor, and an all around good clubhouse guy.
Also Drayton will never approve trading him...so this is a non-story.

To My fellow Braves fans who want to give up the entire farm for Oswalt...NO.

I think Wren will keep Gorkys Hernandez, Julio Teheran,Cole Rohrbrough, Tommy Hanson, and Jason Heyward untouchable if he goes for Oswalt at all. And he should. Those guys are the future of our organization. Chipper Jones won't be there to carry the organization forever, and Tex is likely gone next year.

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