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Baseball Blogs Weigh In: 2008 Amateur Draft
With last year's top pick, David Price, making his pro debut yesterday, we are now two weeks from the 2008 "Rule 4 Draft" and the top of the draft is not as clear this time around. There are five candidates that could go in the top slot: Buster Posey, the FSU catcher; Vanderbilt's third baseman Pedro Alvarez; San Diego lefty Brian Matusz; Southern California high school catcher Kyle Skipworth, and Georgia high school shortstop Tim Beckham. Earlier this week we heard that the Rays were leaning towards Posey or Alvarez, while the Pirates were said to be torn between Alvarez and Beckham with the second pick. Recent mock drafts from Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo, have Beckham going to the Rays with the top pick.
Let's take a look at what is being said about the upcoming draft in the Blogosphere...
- Minor League Ball ranks the top 30 prospects, with Posey and Beckham at the top of the board, while Alvarez' injury knocks him down to #8.
- Baseball Mastermind would like to see a push for a little more hype in the baseball draft and feels that baseball fans would benefit from more debate on the merits of the available talent. They also can't see the Rays taking Alvarez with the top pick now that they have Evan Longoria locked up to a long-term deal.
- DRays Bay wonders if recent reports of the Rays drafting Beckham or Posey were just smoke-screens to lower the price on Alvarez, who is a Scott Boras client.
- Rays of Light note that Alvarez would be the ideal choice, but believe signability may be too big of a factor to ignore, making Posey more attractive.
- Bucs Dugout feels a team should select the best available player with the second pick, but suggests that a team like the Pirates, that is still several years away from contending, may be better off drafting high school talent. The idea is that an Alvarez will not help a Bucs club in '09 or '10 while a Beckham will remain under the team's control for more years.
- Camden Depot doesn't sound very excited about the prospect of the Orioles drafting Matusz.
- McCovey Chronicles is hoping that Alvarez falls to the Giants at #5.
Cork Gaines writes for Rays Index and can be reached here.
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Would Longoria really block Alvarez if the Rays drafted him? It seems that players often end up playing different positions as professionals anyway. I'd be interested to know if Alvarez could play RF. How much of his value is tied up in being able to play 3B? How much is his bat?
Posted by: wihargo | May 23, 2008 at 01:10 PM
There is zero chance that Pedro Alvarez drops past the Orioles at #4.
I see the Orioles taking one of the following 4:
1) Pedro Alvarez
2) Tim Beckham
3) Gordon Beckham
4) Justin Smoak
And the above is pretty much my guess of the order of how much the Orioles want the player.
I'd be shocked if the Orioles draft a pitcher. Couple the Orioles depth of pitching in the minors with the reports of Matusz having a violent delivery . . .the O's will draft a position player.
While Tampa, Pittsburgh, or even KC may or may not take Alvarez, if Pedro is available, there is 100% chance the Orioles take him.
Giants fans are dreaming about him being available. There is no reality it happens.
Posted by: delaware_bird | May 23, 2008 at 01:54 PM
delaware bird-
I agree entirely that Alvarez won't slip past the O's at 4 in ANY situation. However, as a fellow O's fan, I have begun to accept the fact that Pedro ain't slippin' to us either. Sadly, he'll almost certainly go 1,2, or 3 (probably 2).
I really want another Wieters miracle, but the Pirates new management needs a high profile, home run pick- if only for public perception. They'll spend the money if they must.
I DO think the Bucs might take Beckham (I said MIGHT) if TB goes with Posey at 1, because their rebuilding timeline is long-term and Beckham is the kind of cornerstone star they can develop in the minors while building through trades and the draft over the next few years. Unlike Alvarez, they won't have to worry about service time issues while desperately attempting to surround him with talent before arbitration and, later, free agency, draws near.
Even IF that happens, however, I'm fairly certain the Royals WILL NOT let him get past them. They seem to want a bat and Alvarez's is the best in the draft. Furthermore, they would actually be better off with a fast-mover, to join Gordon, Butler, Greinke, Bannister, Hochevar, and, later, Cortes and Moustakas, in KC. Sure, they went H.S. last year, but Moustakas was a special case...and I bet if they had a chance to do it again, they'd take Wieters.
I think we're going to have to accept that we're likely to get either of the Beckham boys. Frankly, if Tim drops, it could be a coup in the long run.
Posted by: milehigh78 | May 23, 2008 at 02:38 PM
1. TB- B. Posey
2. PIT- T. Beckham
3. KC- P. Alvarez
4. BAL- G. Beckham
5. SF- J. Smoak
6. FLA- K. Skipworth
7. CIN- B. Matusz
8. CHI- A. Crow
9. WAS- Y. Alonso
10.HOU- S. Hunt
Just missed! Damn.
Posted by: milehigh78 | May 23, 2008 at 02:44 PM
Oh yeah, Wihargo-
Alvarez could maybe play left, but right? Doubt it. Not saying its impossible, but...
Posted by: milehigh78 | May 23, 2008 at 02:45 PM
The Rays will need a 1B at the end of 2009 or the beginning of 2010. I am sure Alvarez could play first.
Pena is signed through 2009. Gotta figure he is trade bait at some point.
Posted by: Sean Gibson | May 23, 2008 at 03:02 PM
delaware, there is not a Giants fan on this planet that believes Alvarez will fall to 5. Of course we'd love to have him...
Most likely going to be Smoak.
Posted by: zito4cyyoung | May 23, 2008 at 03:25 PM