Free Agent Stock Watch: Ryan Dempster

I agree. I think that Dempster could work out to be a number 2 starter in the rotation. Let's see how the next few months go before we start throwing numbers out there. If he continues to be as successful all season as he has the first 7 weeks, then 30 mil for three years may not be too bad. That's Ted Lilly money and is a fair value considering his age.

if i remember correctly, elias considered dempster a type B before this year. If he acheives type A free agent status I would rather see dempster walk and try to get a few draft picks.

"if i remember correctly, elias considered dempster a type B before this year. If he acheives type A free agent status I would rather see dempster walk and try to get a few draft picks."

You beat me to it! The Cubs should let him go if he obtains type A status. Nearly all of their good prospects are no longer prospects, meaning they really need some lower level talent. They are going to have a pretty good amount of early picks this year (Kendall was a type B!), and we know that Howry will almost certainly be a type A, so their number of picks are looking good right now. They need to rebuild the bottom of their farm, and this seems like the way to do it.

I do agree though, they need Gallagher or Hill to come through in order to feel comfortable about letting Dempster go.

Dempster is not going to be a #2 for us. He will be a #3-#5 guy for us and I think he will stay in Chicago. Dempster is 30 years old now, but since he was only a relief pitcher for the last 5 years, his arm has actually been saved some. So I believe (which doesnt mean much) that he still has many good years left on his arm and maybe another all-star year.

Letting him walk for a 1st round (not supplemental pick) is risky. No guarantee that a top 15 team would pick him up. In fact, if he was priced moderately ($8-10m/season) he becomes even more attractive to the bottom tier teams.

bjsguess has a good point. Dempster will likely be priced at a point where almost any team can afford him, and he would be attractive to a Minnesota or Kansas City.

Guzman had tommy john last fall. He started working out at extended spring training facilities in Mesa, and is expected to start a rehab stint sometime after the all star break. Unfortunately the specifics have been kind if vague. It seems more and more like the recovery times from tj surgery have gotten longer. They used to tell players 2 years, if ever, then whittled it down to a year, but it seems like even when they come back after a year, it really takes another year before they get back into it. IMO.

"Wrigley Field is 2 different parks depending on time of year. Let's wait until the warm summer months, when the wind is blowing out regularly, to judge Dempster's worth." - But if he continues to get 55% GB, then he'll definitely prove his worth. 12 million isn't out of the question, look at the deal Carlos Silva has. Also, who else is going to be on the market. Those are things you have to consider.

And great points about the Cubs rebuilding their farm system. They really have the ability to this year, and get some quality young players.

Point to the Silva deal all you want, and I'll point to the Lohse deal.

skkrman7482...the latest CBA reads as follows. Type C free agents no longer exist. Type A is relegated to the top 20% of players at their respective position. Teams earn a 1st and supplemental round pick(between 1st and 2nd round) as long as the free agent is not signed by a top 15 drafting team. If a Type A is signed by a team in the top 15 of the drafting order then the team receives a supplemental pick and a 2nd round pick.
The next 20% at their respective position are considered Type B free agents. This free agent type nets the team a supplemental round pick, no matter who that player is signed by.

We're looking at a potential $25 mil coming off of the payroll at the end of this season with Dempster, Eyre, Howry, Wood, Johnson, Edmonds, Lieber, Blanco, and Cotts (I believe, but not certain of) all being free agents.

Hendry could use that extra cash to do a couple of things. He could go after someone like Sabathia, Oliver Perez, or Burnett as a topnotch #2 guy. He could also go for someone like K-Rod, Fuentes, Juan Rincon, Rafael Soriano, or Brandon Lyon to beef up the pen. Hell, he might be able to pick up both Rincon and Perez with the savings from the guys listed above... and have enough left over to give the kids currently in place slight raises.

integr96:

my only issue with what you said is going after burnett... his stuff is good, but we have been burned by injury prone pitchers with good stuff before (Mark Prior). And I dont think Burnett would be much cheaper than Sabathia anyway, since I believe Boras is burnett's agent.

integr96,

Thats good stuff. I agree with about everything you wrote. I think Burnett is a good choice for lack of better options. There is always Hardin, but thats the same problem times about 10. Other than that, there really don't seem to be many true #2 starters out there.

Funny thing about Dempster, baseball prospectus ripped Hendry for signing him, not because of the money, which was reasonable, but because they couldn't believe Hendry actually believed Dempster would stay healthy...

integr96,

I understand that raises are going to quite a few players due to 1st and 2nd years of their current contracts being deferred. However, that's already budgeted out. I would be highly surprised that the Cubs won't push the envelope a good $10-20 million beyond what's already planned for next year.

I see Eyre going, mainly because Piniella lost faith in him last year... and he started off this season hurt. He isn't getting any younger. I also see Howry leaving, due to his struggles early on both this season and last season. Wood is a fan favorite to many... and a dud to others. IF, and that's a major if, he can make it through the season without hitting the DL and his usual wildness doesn't step up and burn him once the weather wars up in Wrigley, I think he might get an extension. However, other issues will exist in the pen. We'd still need a solid #2 pitcher.

I think there's a chance that Sabathia can be signed. Burnett I think is even more plausible considering Sabathia will be the top dog on the market... and the Yanks and Mets will both be players jacking the price up. However, either may cost us possible strength in the bullpen. While we have a number of young arms that could step up... do you really want a bullpen of 1-3 vets and 4-5 rookies (or near rookies)?

Sabathia is going to cost at least $17-18 mil per. Burnett, if he remains healthy all year, will probably be in the $15-16 mil per range. Perez, I don't think he goes much more than $12 mil per, and he only gets that if he repeats last season this year. I think Hendry could get both Perez and Rincon for around $18 mil per. The problem here, there's a good chance of having 3 lefties in the rotation... and I'm not so certain that's a good idea.

Rotation: Zambo, Perez, Lilly, Gallagher, Hill/Marquis.

Pen: Wood (maybe), Marmol, Rincon, Wuertz, Marshall, Veal (preperation for him taking Lilly's spot in the rotation), Hart/Asciano/Guzman (if healthy)/Petrick.

Also, if Hendry could move Marquis... maybe eating half of his salary... there's ab it more savings that might be able to afford Sabathia or Burnett over Perez.