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The Giants have the fifth overall pick in this June's draft, and Peter Magowan said yesterday that the team hopes to take a position player.
Baseball America recently predicted the Giants would take first baseman Justin Smoak, while Jonathan Mayo went with shortstop Tim Beckham. Beckham might be the superior choice, but he could be snagged by the Rays, Pirates, Royals, or Orioles. It's been rumored that the Orioles are leaning toward a college player, so perhaps they'll pass on Beckham if he's there at #4.
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Most likely will be Smoak. Giants need a corner power bat more than they need speedy SS. With Burriss and Velez developing at SS and 2B...At 1B or 3B would be good.
Posted by: zito4cyyoung | May 19, 2008 at 09:04 AM
I would think something like this was pretty obvious. The Giants have some arms for the future, but the last time I checked they had ZERO offense. I don't care how much upside a kid like Crow may have, you better take a close to major league ready bat, because Aaron Rowand needs help.
Posted by: bucs_lose_again | May 19, 2008 at 09:41 AM
I'd be okay with Smoak, but they have, according to Keith Law, the top 1b prospect in the entire game in Villalona already. Burriss and Velez could develop into good players, but if they could get a SS (Tim or G. Beckham) of elite quality (who also have above-average power for that position) than that would be great. Although, I agree with you about corner infield when it comes to 3b...that's probably their worst position in the majors and minors.
Posted by: cobweb25 | May 19, 2008 at 09:44 AM
zito-
I agree with that assessment. Don't rule out Hosmer either, though both are seen as 1B only, which is a little odd, due to the Giants' heavy investment in Angel Villalona, their best position prospect and a helluva bat who- despite some struggles this year- looks like a fair bet to be a very good pro.
San Fran is interesting; a fairly high revenue club in the doldrums, with a bunch of quality young arms and a couple questionable position prospects from last year's draft class. Even before Magowan's latest, it seemed clear that they'd go position player, but the strength of this year's class doesn't seem to fit their needs. I guess they could try to move Villalona to left field or try Smoak or Hosmer out there, but if either of the Beckhams are there, I wonder if one might be the better fit. Ditto with Posey. In fact, if Posey falls that far, I think that would be an excellent pick for the Giants.
1. TB- Beckham
2. PIT- Alvarez
3. KC- Crow
4. BAL- Matusz
5. SF- Posey
I could see that happening. PIT/KC are the big wild cards this year. Posey to SF would seem to hinge on KC and, of course, TB. If the Rays go Beckham and KC takes the local kid, Posey'll be there. Question is: do the Giants like him enough to take him there?
Posted by: milehigh78 | May 19, 2008 at 09:54 AM
I agree that the Giants should be looking for a position player. Is Sabean actually doing something right, or does their scouting director handle the draft?
I'm not a huge Posey fan this early in the draft (not that I'm a Giants fan). His defense is suppose to be very strong, given his athletisim. And while he is showing good ability to hit for average, he doesn't seem to have much power projection. He's a good safe pick, but for a team needing offense, he doesn't seem like the best fit. Gold glove catchers who hit .300 are great, but its just not quite what the Giants need.
I also question taking Smoak or Alonso quite this early. Mainly because of the presence of Villalona, but also because you have to be 100% sure of the bat when a guy is that limited defensively.
Alvarez would be a great pick if he falls, but I can't imagine him getting past the Orioles, even if Pittsburgh and KC passed on him.
Given all that, I think Gordon Beckham would be the best fit. He absolutely crushed the ball in the Cape last summer, showing he has legit wood bat power. He has continued crushing the ball this season, showing he wasn't a summer fluke. Some teams question his ability to stay at SS, though some seem to think he can stick there and be average defensively. Regardless, I think its smarter to take the power bat who can project at SS, 2B, 3B, or OF rather than the guy who is limited to 1B (the position also played by your top hitting prospect). Fits the team's need and gives them plenty of flexibility to move G. Beckham to different defensive positions based on trades, the emergence of other players, and free agent signings.
Posted by: mymrbig | May 19, 2008 at 10:29 AM
cobweb and mymrbig:
I understood that Smoak was already rated average or above average at 1B, so defensive concerns should be moot. Ideally, Alvarez would fall to them, but I doubt it happens. And I wouldn't put all my eggs in the Villalona-at-1B basket; there would be nothing wrong with having Villalona and Smoak as the corner infielders on the 2010 Giants. As for SS and either Beckham, I think Vizquel will be shipped to Boston within weeks, and the Giants will hand the SS job to Burriss by the deadline. Sure, a Beckham would be great to have down the road at SS, but having Burriss there now and Smoak/Villalona at the corners by 2010 would be better.
Posted by: Steve Soto | May 19, 2008 at 11:36 AM
How do you see Smoak and Villalona playing at the corners? They're both limited to 1B from everything I've read. You're doubling up on your odds of having that stud 1B of the future, but since there's no DH in the NL, there's nowhere to put the other guy. Like I said before, I guess one of 'em could be given a shot in left, but I don't know how real an option that is. Smoak seems to be the better defender, hands down, so the question is: can Villalona handle left. Probably, but I'm pretty certain third is out of the question for either.
I like the Beckham idea. Burris is all fine and well, but he's league-avg. at best to my mind and Gordon's gonna be a star. If there's any question as to who is the best player available, the club should go with the option that best fits a need (obviously, top player on board comes first). Thus, Posey and Beckham seem like the best bets (and bats) to help considerably and to do so relatively soon. A future infield featuring Villalona, Nick Noonan, and Beckham would be pretty badass.
Posted by: milehigh78 | May 19, 2008 at 12:37 PM
The more I think about it, the more I hope the O's go with
A)Alvarez (if available)
Best bat in draft combining polish and upside; .300+ with massive power and a chance to stick at third. Would give us another future super star and likely keep our streak of solid picks going (Wieters, Arrieta, Rowell)
B)G. Beckham
The more I see, the more I like. He's going to put up terrific numbers, including unusual power, somewhere in the middle of the infield. Would be awesme if he sticks at short and there's a legit shot, but I'd take him at 2B too. Really squares ball and launches it. Probably good to hit around .300, with 25+ power. O's have NO mid-infield prospects (unless you count Tyler Henson at Low A, but he'll likely move to third)
C) Eric Hosmer-
He'll take more time than the two before him, but Hosmer's bat is special; could develop into the top offensive force from this draft. I'm a believer and, though I know the club wants someone who can move a little faster; to keep pace with Wieters, Tillman, Arrieta, Reimold, Rowell, and the like, but Hosmer is worth some patience...and I wouldn't rule out his ability to climb the ladder quickly either.
D)Brian Matusz
Guess Matusz comes in fourth. Arguably the best pitcher in this class (what can I say, I like Shooter Hunt); lefty with solid control of three pitches doesn't seem like an ace replacement for Bedard, but could pair with, say, Tillman atop our future rotation as a very nice 1-2, righty-lefty, punch (stick Arrieta at the 3, Olson at the 4, and maybe Liz at the 5 until he can find some control).
E)Justin Smoak-
Think he'll hit for power, but question his all around hitting. Otherwise, he looks like an excellent pick who could move quickly and re-team with H.S. teammate Weiters as the foundation for future success.
I also like Crow, Hunt, Alonso, and, though it's too early for them, Kelly, Hicks, and Martin all look like future stars, and Zach Collier and Anthony Hewitt are more intriguing by the day. Should be some good pickin's in the second round and maybe even enough depth to service a third round without much drop off. What this draft is lacking in 'star power, it makes up for in depth.
Posted by: milehigh78 | May 19, 2008 at 12:58 PM
Yeah, from what I hear Villalona has no chance at 3b. So far this year he has only played 1b and dh. I've heard Bobby Evans (player dev. guy) say that he still takes grounders at third, but realistically he's a 1b. Maybe LF...but I'm thinking he might look like Carlos Lee in LF. Villalona is a big boy getting bigger.
The reason I like Posey going to the Giants (if he's available) is that a catcher with his abilities is rare. We're getting spoiled with Wieters and Posey back-to-back. This isn't the norm. No, he's not gonna be the cleanup type hitter they need, but he could begin to lay the foundation for their future, which is going to be built around pitching and defense. How invaluable could a catcher like Posey be? I'd say pretty invaluable.
That being said, I think in a perfect world they get Alvarez because there is NOTHING at 3b in their system. They at least have a potential catcher in Pablo Sandoval and a SS in either Burriss or Culberson. Maybe they don't work out, but they have the potential to. No one has potential for them at 3b. Plus, Alvarez is still arguably the best all-around bat in the draft.
Posted by: cobweb25 | May 19, 2008 at 02:25 PM
They do have Burriss and Velez who are good on defense but face it, they can't hit major league pitching well at all. If Tim Beckham or Pedro Alvarez fell to them it would be most ideal, unfortunately for them there's a good chance neither fall past 4 picks. If they do, that's awesome for the Giants. I think there is a better chance that Tim Beckham falls than Alvarez. Either way, I'm not sure whether Gordon Beckham is a reach at five. If that's what the Giants want, that's fine but I'm not sure if he;s as good a hitter as everyone thinks.
There are other options, of course. One is if Posey falls, that would be a good fit for the Giants. Not a cleanup hitter, but someone to work off of and get bats later at less premium positions. Another is taking a high upside high-school bat. They could take Hosmer or Smoak and hope that they don't embarrass themselves in the outfield. Maybe they could take a pitcher if Crow or Matusz fall and the Giants could trade some of their pitchers for hitters. There are a lot of scenarios here but the most ideal for the Giants is Alvarez or Tim Beckham.
Posted by: gogopalehose | May 19, 2008 at 02:36 PM
It is amazing that Villalona is younger than most of the high school players that will get drafted this year.
Smoak is supposed to be very good defensively at first, but what do you do with Villalona if neither can play somewhere else? I know you don't want to put all your eggs in one basket. At the same time, I think you have to go into the draft thinking about filling your organizational needs. You almost have to assume Villalona is going to work out and plan around it. Its one thing if you have a player rated much higher than anyone else available, but I just don't think that will be the case in this year's draft. For that reason, I can see teams looking to fill organizational needs a little more early in the first round.
I find it interesting that the Rays are so interested in Posey, even though Navarro is hitting very well this year. I know Posey probably isn't ready for a couple years, but they still have Navarro under team control for longer than that.
Posted by: mymrbig | May 19, 2008 at 02:37 PM
"They do have Burriss and Velez who are good on defense but face it, they can't hit major league pitching well at all. If Tim Beckham or Pedro Alvarez fell to them it would be most ideal, unfortunately for them there's a good chance neither fall past 4 picks. If they do, that's awesome for the Giants."
Velez? Good at defense??? That is what everyone considers his main weakness! Burris is decent defensivley, and decent at the plate. Major League avg. player. Everyone ofrgets about Kevin Frandsen he was dubbed the 2B of the future by Bruce Bochy in spring, then got injured.
I think the giants should take Posey if avalible and T. Beckham if avalible.
My top 5:
1) C Buster Posey
2) 3B Pedro Alvarez
3) RHP Aaron Crow
4) 1B Justin Smoak
5) SS Tim Beckham
That's my current top 5 (likely to change closer to draft day)
Posted by: AriGoldisaG | May 19, 2008 at 04:15 PM
I just assumed Velez was good defensively because he obviously can't hit. My bad.
Posted by: gogopalehose | May 19, 2008 at 04:33 PM