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Draft Roundup

By Tim Dierkes [June 3, 2008 at 9:42am CST]

Today's draft links.

Rany Jazayerli looks at possibilities for the Royals at #3. He hopes they don't take Eric Hosmer.
MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo has new projections for the top 30. He's switched the Orioles from Brian Matusz to Aaron Crow at #4, among other changes.
Keith Law has tons of good stuff...the Giants are eyeing Gordon Beckham, the Reds are considering Brett Lawrie, Jason Castro could go to the White Sox, the Dodgers like Zach Collier, and much more.
Ken Davidoff is hearing that the Padres are in on Brett Wallace and the Twins like Christian Friedrich.
Pedro Alvarez would be honored to be picked by the Pirates. Dejan Kovacevic continues to say they're leaning that way.
I am considering live-blogging Thursday's draft, posting each pick here as soon as it's announced (you would not have to refresh). Would that be helpful?

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Comments

I think it would be helpful if you gave a quick background and a grade on the pick since most people won't know who these kids are.

At least in football and college we get to see some of these guys play.

Posted by: hrb2112 | June 03, 2008 at 09:53 AM

I don't really have the knowledge to grade the picks, but I can probably dig up links to profiles and such.

Posted by: Tim Dierkes | June 03, 2008 at 09:59 AM

If you have the endurance to do it, I say go for it, Tim. It will be a nice way for me to distract myself from work, and you'll likely get several new readers that way as well.

Posted by: FineHamAbounds | June 03, 2008 at 10:07 AM

If you can add in some links to content on some of the players as well as give a couple sentence rundown of the players, that would be nice especially for those that will be trying to sneak a peak at work here and there.

Posted by: cwilli | June 03, 2008 at 10:33 AM

Don't waste your time, the mlb.com draftcast does a great job with their draftcast feature. They will give a brief scouting report and video clips for most prospects.

Posted by: txrangers22 | June 03, 2008 at 10:40 AM

Yeah that's the thing...it seems like I may not offer anything mlb.com doesn't.

Posted by: Tim Dierkes | June 03, 2008 at 10:46 AM

You offer white text on black background...take that MLB.com!!!

Posted by: thehoagster07 | June 03, 2008 at 11:52 AM

Anything you'd be willing to provide would be great.

Why MLB doesn't run the draft the first weekend of June is beyond me. I know that these kids won't have the immediate impact that NFL or NBA picks do but I still enjoy watching it.

Posted by: schellis | June 03, 2008 at 12:04 PM

No way Castro goes at 8, Wallae wont make it to the Pads

I like the blog idea, MLB.com and ESPN2 will probably provide speculation. I could probably give some insight if you want.

Posted by: gogopalehose | June 03, 2008 at 12:08 PM

I agree with most posters here.. I think it would be great to get a small writeup on each draft pick.

Now if you could do all 50 rounds.. You've got something on MLB.com!!! Ok, that might be a bit overboard...

Posted by: AngryTick | June 03, 2008 at 12:40 PM

Mayo at MLB.com is crazy if he thinks the Reds will take Yonder Alonso at #7. Even if he's there when the Reds pick, they have no need for a 1B. Anyone ever heard of this Joey Votto guy who hit 3 homers in a game a month ago? The Reds like him enough to get rid of Scott Hatteberg who could still be serviceable with the opportunity to play every day. I really don't see the Reds having any need at first base, and even if they were to draft a 1B in the high rounds, why draft a college player who will be ready to play in the show in just a few years? If 1B is really a need, go with a young high school kid who has the potential and then give him time to develop while Votto is playing now.

Posted by: smsdcnc | June 03, 2008 at 12:45 PM

Question some of you may be able to answer, does Martin's (going 21st to the Tigers in Mayo's mock) possible involvement in the beaning of an ump (his pitcher brother did the deed, but both are being investigated) effect his 1st round status?
Here is a link to the article which has a link to the video (gotta see it to believe it)

http://www.ajc.com/highschool/content/sports/highschool/stories/2008/06/02/wildpitch_0602.html?cxntlid=homepage_tab_newstab

Posted by: grimace455 | June 03, 2008 at 12:46 PM

First of all, yes Tim, I think a running draftcast would be nice; you could explain each pick in terms of its impact on the team as a whole and, in particular, how it may affect future trade rumors.

Say the Orioles pick Justin Smoak at #4. Does that mean that Kevin Millar will not be coming back? Maybe he's a Type B FA and could give the club a supplemental pick in the '09 draft. What of Bill Rowell, who many think will require a move across the diamond as well... You see? You're a site dedicated to trade rumors...the events of Thursday would seem to have MAJOR implications toward that end, no?

Posted by: milehigh78 | June 03, 2008 at 02:24 PM

"Mayo at MLB.com is crazy if he thinks the Reds will take Yonder Alonso at #7. Even if he's there when the Reds pick, they have no need for a 1B. Anyone ever heard of this Joey Votto guy who hit 3 homers in a game a month ago?"

You're crazy if you think the the ML Roster has (or should have) any influence on who you take in the first round. 3 words for you. Best, available, talent.

Posted by: nrmax88 | June 03, 2008 at 02:50 PM

YES! to the draft coverage.

At least until #5 :)

Posted by: zito4cyyoung | June 03, 2008 at 02:52 PM

Grimace thats a good question and an interesting read. Who knows, the ump could have deserved it. I played baberuth/ highschool ball for probably 6 or 7 years and I was primarily a catcher. Let me tell you, there were some games where an umpire was so damn bad that I wanted to pretend to get crossed up and let the ball go right back and drill blue in his face. Sometimes they deserve it. Its like that football movie (I think it was the longest yard, the newer one), where the QB hits the umpire right in his nuts for not calling a fair game. They will never be able to prove that those kids did it on purpose, no matter how many tapes they watch. How can you prove that they weren't just crossed up?

Posted by: nrmax88 | June 03, 2008 at 02:55 PM

Also, I have to agree with some of my fellow posters...these rumors are pretty weak. Lawrie to the Reds? Castro to the Sox? No. I'm also disappointed by Mayo; his picks don't have much authority or even logic behind them. Because of this- and public demand- I give you MY brilliant (revised) mock draft (LOL)... I'll break it up into five-pick segments so that it doesn't read like a book.

1. TB- BUSTER POSEY
Forget the Beckham talk; when it comes time, the Rays are taking the guy at the premium position who can help them in a hurry...not four or five years from now. Alvarez is more likely than Beckham, though the Rays won't feel the need to spend THAT much.

2. PIT- TIM BECKHAM
Five tool cornerstone player at a premium position the Bucs can build around over the long term (rather than rush to surround with talent like Alvarez).

That's what they'll tell the fans; actually it'll be Beckham because of Alvarez's asking price, but the Bucs painted themselves into a corner with all their big talk and now they need to save face without having the pick held hostage by Scott Boras...who will absolutely bleed Pittsburgh if they grab his client.

3. KC- ERIC HOSMER
I'm hedging my bet a bit here since the Royals could take Alvarez if he's on the board here. Still, they almost balked at Moustakas last year and that was a MUCH smaller bonus demand than Alvarez and Alvarez isn't a great fit...PLUS, if the Pirates DO take Alvarez, I think the Royals DEFINITELY go with Hosmer, who has more upside in his bat than even Alvarez and whose arm, athleticism, and versatility make him more appealing both at 1B- where he's already a good defender (as opposed to Alvarez, who would have to convert)- or somewhere else (like the OF).

4. BAL- PEDRO ALVAREZ
The drop ends here, with the biggest market/revenue club yet to pick- just like Wieters last year. WON'T get past this point, but obviously, could go before. If Alvarez IS gone, expect the O's to go with Justin Smoak, Wieters' H.S. teammate with a polished, powerful bat that some believe compares favorably with Alvarez's.

5. SF- GORDON BECKHAM
Smoak's the other possibility and he's still on the board, but considering that the team already has Villalona in the system and that Beckham has that rare middle infield package of tools to go with usable power, I just can't see the Giants passing.

Posted by: milehigh78 | June 03, 2008 at 02:57 PM

nrmax88- since we're calling people crazy, YOU are crazy if you think that a club's current roster/prospects has/have nothing to do with how they pick in Rd 1. You can debate whether it SHOULD or HOW MUCH it influences decisions, but it IS ONE of many factors, first and foremost being best available talent, but also including (positional) need, MLB readiness, bonus/contract demands and adherence to slot, and makeup/maturity.

Now, onto my next five picks

6. FLA- KYLE SKIPWORTH
The Marlins have loved his advanced bat for months and that's not changing...nor is the fact that he's likely to sign for slot, which makes him that much more appealing for the cost-conscious fish.

7. CIN- BRIAN MATUSZ
If the draft's top pitcher- a southpaw no less- falls to #7, the lefty-less Reds will be beside themselves with joy. Crow's another possibility and they could go with a bat, but considering the board, I think you'll see a pitcher one way or another.

8. CHW- JUSTIN SMOAK
Incredibly, still on the board; fits both in terms of talent and need. Could swap with SF (Beckham), while Brett Wallace is a darkhorse who's gotten a lot of hype here. Still, the way the board is falling, Williams will be pumped to get Smoak or Beckham.

9. WAS- AARON CROW
Tricky pick to predict- lot of Collier buzz- but if Crow's still on the board, I can't see Bowden passing. Brett Lawrie could be a surprise here as could Yonder Alonso.

10. HOU- SHOOTER HUNT
Signability is big for Houston after last year's debacle and Hunt, who's been dropping in the estimation of a lot of teams, would almost certainly sign for slot while bolstering a weak crop of arms on the farm. Andrew Cashner, Tim Melville, Christian Friedrich, and Josh Fields are other possibilities.

Posted by: milehigh78 | June 03, 2008 at 03:25 PM

Ken Davidoff is hearing that the Padres are in on Brett Wallace

----
lol that's great. Since the very highest he'll go is to the Jays, that's a pretty pointless piece right there.

Posted by: juiced | June 03, 2008 at 03:31 PM

I find it odd that people are so quick to call journalists' draft info ridiculous, when they are all far more well-connected to this than we are.

Posted by: Tim Dierkes | June 03, 2008 at 03:33 PM

as a reds fan i would be very happy if matusz is still there if not i think it comes down to smoke and crow if they are both still on the board i prefer crow personally but would be happy with smoke ... him or votto could always move to the outfield

Posted by: redsfan | June 03, 2008 at 03:58 PM

You're right Tim, but at the same time, we're calling the info ridiculous because of OTHER info from OTHER journalists; it's not like we think we have the inside track! If EVERY report from EVERY reputable source we read (often here) says Wallace is going to go somewhere between #8 and #18, how much weight are you going to give the random voice claiming the club picking #23 is interested. Sure they're interested, but that doesn't mean jack come Thursday when the Pads' pick comes around and Wallace is already celebrating with his family.

Posted by: milehigh78 | June 03, 2008 at 04:36 PM

Screw it; I'll just list 'em...

11. TEX- GERIT COLE (never shied away from a Boras client and kid's got a monster arm)
12. OAK- BRETT WALLACE (A Billy Beane kind of player with some defensive versatility)
13. STL- AARON HICKS (good workout rumor + STL's recent history w/ polished H.S. kids and big upside; Tim Melville another possibility)
14. MIN- CHRISTIAN FRIEDRICH ('Sota likes Zito-with-a-FB type)
15. LAD- ETHAN MARTIN (superior two way talent fits high-ceiling mold of Dodgers)
16. MIL- BRETT LAWRIE (with first pick, MIL ignores pitching need and takes fast-rising Canadian prep talent)
17. TOR- YONDER ALONSO
(Absolutely thrilled that he's still on the board, college-comfy Jays gladly pay over slot)
18. NYM- IKE DAVIS
(Would love to get Alonso, but with the Jays taking him, conservative Mets take ASU slugger)
19. CHI- ZACH COLLIER
(Smoother than Kelly and still on the board, could be a steal)
20. SEA- RYAN PERRY (high ceiling college hurler a perfect fit here)
21. DET- ANDREW CASHNER (after being rumored as high as #6, Cashner lands with club he can help immediately; with no studs dropping, Cashner not sexy, but just what Tigs need)
22. NYM- JASON CASTRO (good polished bat, premium position; sure slot-sign who could help in a hurry- fits Mets M.O.)
23. SD- JOSH FIELDS (heir to Hoffman's throne should sign for slot)
24. PHI- ANTHONY HEWITT
(keep hearing his name with this pick)
25. COL- JAKE ODORIZZI
(pretty clear they're going with an arm and Odorizzi's getting a lot of buzz here)
26. ARI- JEMILE WEEKS (could go 100 different directions with the pick from college reliever to prep pitcher; Weeks is here on talent, polish, and possible need if Hudson leaves via FA)
27. MIN- CONOR GILLASPIE (Twins always surprise and Gillaspie is underrated).
28. NYY- DAN SCHLERETH (shocking in its normalcy but gives NY replacement for Joba in 'pen)
29. CLE- DAVID COOPER
(Big bat to eventually replace Garko. Allan Dykstra, Reese Havens, and James Darnell fit here too)
30. BOS- REESE HAVENS (Boston loves him, by all accounts)

Posted by: milehigh78 | June 03, 2008 at 04:36 PM

I'm with Mile here, his draft looks pretty right on the nose here. And since G.Beckham continues to tear the ball, it doesn't appear that the A's will be getting him :( Oh well, that's fine with me if we get Wallace. Great player and he grew up right up the road (Napa) from Oakland and me! (Marin County). I sould see him making his big league debut in September 2010.

Posted by: AriGoldisaG | June 03, 2008 at 04:54 PM

you can bet your house on the fact that if Alvarez slips past TB and Pitt, he slips no further. KC will be on him like white on rice.

Posted by: bobhamelin | June 03, 2008 at 06:24 PM

Interesting about Collier. Projects to be a left handed power threat with 4.5 tools (arm is a little weak). I see him playing left if you keep the current RF and CF, and it seems to fit his skill set.

Posted by: AA | June 03, 2008 at 09:10 PM

If the Mets waste a 1st round pick on Jason Castro I will be pissed. Milehigh, since you say that teams should consider their ML roster while drafting, why do you have the Mets taking a C who can help quickly, when they dont need any quick help at C? If they are drafting in the first round for ML readyish guys, why draft at a position where you dont have an immediate need? With the holes the Mets have, if they stick to the slot and dont take the best available talent they dont deserve to win in the future.

Posted by: nrmax88 | June 04, 2008 at 12:23 AM

nrmax88- I hear you about the Mets, but all the rumor and conjecture flying around has them drafting fast-moving, sign-for-slot, low-ceiling college types. Castro's the third-best catcher in this draft and has been linked on numerous occasions to the Mets. They've got Schneider, sure, but even he's 31 (the youngest catcher on the roster) and can't stay behind the dish forever. I don't know of any other top catching prospects in the system; who's the heir apparent? It's not like Castro will be knocking on the door from Day 1; he's not Alvarez or Smoak. He'll still likely require two or more years in the minors- depending on how he adjusts, you're probably looking at a late 2010, early 2011 ETA. Seems like a good time to bring in young blood to take over for Schneider, no? Anyway, it's just a thought.

As for bobhamelin...really? You're sure? I've kind of resigned myself to the fact that my O's are not getting Alvarez and have even talked myself into believing he's overrated, but why would KC spend what sounds like it'll be a record bonus for another 3B. In either Hosmer or Smoak, you've got a ready-made 1B, not a convert and with Hosmer, you could perhaps have your future RF'er (his arm is incredible- mid to high 90s, I've read). Unless the Royals think Alvarez's bat is THAT much better, it wouldn't seem to make much sense for a small-market club to spend the scratch Alvarez will cost. Nevertheless, as an O's fan, I realize that could just be my way of rationalizing a scenario whereby my O's get the draft's top college bat for a second straight year (LOL)!

Like I said, I've changed my tune and am willing to accept the fact that Pittsburgh or KC is going to take Alvarez before the O's get to him. While I think people forget just how much a big bonus demand can affect draft position, the draft is tomorrow and we've heard nothing of the Bucs or Royals getting scared off by Alvarez's demands. I'll still say the Bucs go with Beckham, but now I've got the Royals snagging Alvarez and the O's taking Matusz (and making a play for Teixeira over the winter). Trust me, this is not my ideal scenario; just a hunch.

Posted by: milehigh78 | June 04, 2008 at 09:59 AM

My day before board (11AM)

1.TB- Buster Posey
2.PIT- Pedro Alvarez (changed again)
3.KC- Eric Hosmer
4.BAL- Tim Beckham
5.SF- Gordon Beckham
Everything else is the same I think...for now. I guess KC could grab Tim Beckham, but a HS SS for a second year in a row? I doubt it and haven't heard a lot about him going there. The Royals seem set on working with Boras again. If Hosmer doesn't go at 3 or 5, the drop could be a long one.

For my O's, I think it'll come down to availability in this order

1. Pedro Alvarez
2. Tim Beckham
3. Brian Matusz
4. Justin Smoak

Posted by: milehigh78 | June 04, 2008 at 10:05 AM

I'd prefer...

1. Pedro Alvarez
2. Eric Hosmer
3. Justin Smoak
4. Tim Beckham

I'm a big fan of Hosmer's bat.

Posted by: milehigh78 | June 04, 2008 at 10:06 AM

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