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The Starting Pitcher Market

By Tim Dierkes [June 4, 2008 at 10:47am CST]

Almost every team needs starting pitching. Let's take a look at who's out there.

Bronson Arroyo, Reds. If Walt Jocketty starts selling off his veterans, he'll have to listen on Arroyo. The innings-eating 31 year-old is signed through 2010.
Derek Lowe, Dodgers. Lowe seems to have righted the ship after a five-start stumble. He'll be a free agent after the season, but I can't see Ned Colletti moving Lowe unless the Dodgers fall out of contention.
Joe Blanton, A's. Like Arroyo, a hittable innings eater. Also like Arroyo, he's under team control through 2010.
Livan Hernandez, Twins. The Twins may want to keep Livan, since they are in the thick of the AL Central race. You may recall they did not elect to trade Carlos Silva last year.
A.J. Burnett, Blue Jays. His name comes up in trade rumors because of an opt out clause. If he thinks he can top a two-year, $24MM deal, Burnett will probably elect free agency after the season. The Jays are currently a contender, so he shouldn't be available. Plus, he has a limited no-trade clause.
Boof Bonser, Twins. Recently demoted to the bullpen, Bonser may be expendable (and more desirable than Livan).
Brad Penny, Dodgers. The Dodgers hold an $8.75MM option for '09 with a $2MM buyout. Penny has a limited no-trade clause. He's pitched terribly lately.
C.C. Sabathia, Indians. Teams would be falling all over themselves to add a true ace, even for two months. And maybe the acquiring team would try to lock him up. The Indians are still contending, however.
Daniel Cabrera, Orioles. Has he turned the corner, or should the O's sell high? Cabrera is under team control through 2010.
Gil Meche, Royals. Meche is signed through 2011. I think the Royals should at least shop him around.
Greg Maddux, Padres. Mad Dog has no-trade protection, so it'll be his call as to whether he wants a trade.
Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson, Kenny Rogers, Tigers. Some have suggested the Tigers will look to move a starter. They're not out of the AL Central race, in my opinion.
Miguel Batista, Jarrod Washburn, Mariners. Both vets are signed through '09. Both have been lousy.
Odalis Perez, Nationals. Allows too many baserunners, but may be attractive as an innings eater. Should definitely be available.
Randy Wolf, Padres. If Wolf puts in another strong, healthy month he should be one of Kevin Towers' more valuable trade chips.
Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, Sidney Ponson, Rangers. The Rangers are only six games out, so don't start the fire sale yet. Padilla is signed through '09, Millwood through '10.
Ben Sheets, Brewers. The Brewers are only 3.5 games out of the wild card, so trading Sheets (an impending free agent) should not be considered for now.
Paul Byrd, Jeremy Sowers, Indians. Shopping these two made sense before the Jake Westbrook injury. Pitching surpluses don't exist!
Zack Greinke, Royals. To trade him, the Royals would probably need a very good, cheap, young MLB-ready hitter.
Rich Harden, A's. I expect interested teams to see how Harden fares over the next month before getting serious.

Full Story | Comments (40) | Categories: Trade Market

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Comments

Reds have a few expendable veterans, but what would Jocketty seek in return for Arroyo? I mean Melky Cabrera seems like a nice option to me...

Posted by: GmblngPtchr20 | June 04, 2008 at 11:02 AM

Harden will forever and always be an Athletic. Two reasons: a) He gets injured too much to accumulate enough trade value b) Billy's asking price would be ridiculous because Harden's the most amazing pitcher ever, when healthy. End of story.

Posted by: MarkEllisforMVP | June 04, 2008 at 11:14 AM

Couldn't see the Yanks going after Arroyo.

Posted by: Tim Dierkes | June 04, 2008 at 11:22 AM

What would Minnesota be looking for if they traded Boof Bonser? My guess would be a ML ready hitter? I think the Braves should look into that for sure... Maybe Lillibridge and Brandon Jones? I know Minnesota needs a true young shortstop, then B Jones thrown in to seal the deal?

Or Greinke would be even better, although I think KC would be stupid to deal him. The Braves would probably have to give up something along the lines of Lillibridge, Schafer AND Hanson...

Posted by: DonCoburleone | June 04, 2008 at 11:26 AM

I think it would take more than just a a very good, cheap, young MLB-ready hitter for the Royals to trade Greinke. Even with last nights stinker, I really think they would have to get a decent bounty in return, at least the very good, cheap, young MLB-ready hitter and a young pitcher or two. He's still under team control for a few more years, 2010 I believe. Meche on the other hand, I wouldn't be too upset to see go. I still think he's turned out better than anybody thought, even with the struggles this year, his last 4 starts have been decent. That contract will help too, $11 mil for an innings eater, especially with the way the price keeps going up and up and up for pitching, it was smart to sign him when Moore did.

Posted by: Koby | June 04, 2008 at 11:28 AM

Odalis Perez left after 3 innings last night, complaining of shoulder tendinitis. It looks like he'll sit out his next start, so his tradability is on hold for now.

Posted by: thehoagster07 | June 04, 2008 at 11:49 AM

I don't think shopping Meche is even on the radar. With Greinke beginning to mature it would take a monster deal to move him from the Royals.

Moore has said over and over that the model is to build pitching. He's doing that. Both of these pitchers are cornerstones in the rotation. What would it be if they traded them?

Bannister, Hochever, Davies, Tomko, and ?.

Seriously, people who think that Meche and Greinke are commodities for trade really haven't followed the team closely and listened. Of course no one is untouchable, but imo trading either of these pitchers puts the Royals two years back...and I highly doubt anyone in the Royals system is interested in that.

Posted by: Otis26 | June 04, 2008 at 12:05 PM

Meche has an FIP of 4.6 and doesn't come cheap. I think the team would listen to a good offer for him. Greinke the team would want to keep, though he's arb-eligible soon, if memory serves. Still, for the right offer, nearly everyone on every team is probably available. I just wouldn't expect the Royals to dump Greinke for spare parts, any more than I believe the usual "we'll just trade C-level prospects for Josh Hamilton and Clay Buchholz!" fanboy slavering.

Posted by: wcw | June 04, 2008 at 12:35 PM

Hey tim, I have seen several postings on the Reds message boards about people liking the idea of Bronson Arroyo for Shane Victorino.

Posted by: knuckleballer | June 04, 2008 at 12:36 PM

No Jason Marquis?!?!?!?! FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, SOMEONE TAKE JASON MARQUIS!

Posted by: B Fu | June 04, 2008 at 12:48 PM

Cubs should definitely look into a lot of these pitchers.

Posted by: CUBBIES2008 | June 04, 2008 at 01:02 PM

@Otis26

I agree with you in the main, and I don't think they'd ever trade both Meche and Greinke. But Soria would be the replacement, so it's not as crazy as you might think. Then again, I'd prefer:

Meche, Greinke, Soria, Hochevar, Bannister

Posted by: jrfukudome | June 04, 2008 at 01:36 PM

Why on earth doesn't anyone seem to want Sean Marshall? Why is he wilting away at AAA with what he did last year? Is Jim Hendry hoarding pitchers, or aren't there any takers?

Posted by: messerbh | June 04, 2008 at 01:48 PM

The problem with Arroyo is that in the next two years of his contract he'll be making pretty big money. Number 2 money but he isn't even close to being worth that anymore.

Posted by: Bank Street Grounds | June 04, 2008 at 01:51 PM

If the Braves trade Lilibridge and Jones for Boof Bonser then they might as well just hand the division over to the Marlins/Phillies...you don't trade two of your biggger chips for a guy who can't hold a rotation spot and doesn't even have a strong track record.

Posted by: jwrocks | June 04, 2008 at 01:59 PM

Marquis and Anthony Reyes are definitely two who belong on the list.

Posted by: Tim Dierkes | June 04, 2008 at 02:12 PM

“Why on earth doesn't anyone seem to want Sean Marshall?”

…Because he doesn’t pitch that well over extended amounts of time. He’s best suited for a BP role…

“Meche, Greinke, Soria, Hochevar, Bannister”

…as an AL-C fan ~ that’s frightening…

“I think it would take more than just a a very good, cheap, young MLB-ready hitter for the Royals to trade Greinke”

…Yeah, I hear “a very good, cheap, young MLB-ready hitter” and think of someone like Ethier ~ how fast you think I see the door with that one…

"Marquis and Anthony Reyes are definitely two who belong on the list."

...I want to ask why the list doesnt include Zito :)

Posted by: darkstar1661 | June 04, 2008 at 02:36 PM

I think the Nats would be smart to trade Tim Redding now...he stacks up awfully well with a lot of the junky guys on this list in terms of performance the past two years, but at the same time is probably not worth a 3 year extension. They could actually get a legit prospect for him IMO

Posted by: wayne gomes | June 04, 2008 at 03:32 PM

How about Grienke to the Dodgers for Loney & Elbert?

Posted by: ballerwhiteboy | June 04, 2008 at 03:43 PM

Actually I think that the Royals should do wahtever it takes to lock up Greinke, i.e go up to 7 years.

Posted by: ballerwhiteboy | June 04, 2008 at 03:44 PM

"Why on earth doesn't anyone seem to want Sean Marshall? Why is he wilting away at AAA with what he did last year? Is Jim Hendry hoarding pitchers, or aren't there any takers?"

Although not a bad pitcher, he will fade as the season goes on. His first two years have almost been a mirror of each other;starts off strong and then wears down, unable to finish the season.

Posted by: forlife61 | June 04, 2008 at 03:56 PM

After Lou's blow up on the mound yesterday I think that he is finally fed up with Marquis.

Also Hendry is an idiot if he doesn't at least offer up something for C.C. He is everything that the Cubs need.. a lefty, an ace who may be willing to go in the two spot of the rotation, not because Z is better but so that the rotation is RHP,LHP,RHP,LHP,RHP like Lou wants.

This would give you a rotation of

Big Z
C.C.
Dempster
Lilly
Gallagher

Posted by: bleedcubbieblue | June 04, 2008 at 04:00 PM

I'm thinking about the Hamilton-Volquez deal...Greinke would command a pretty legit young bat, Kemp plus something from the Dodgers, Cano plus something from Yankees, etc.

Posted by: wayne gomes | June 04, 2008 at 04:01 PM

I think that Murton, Hoffpauir, and McGehee are all MLB ready hitters. Obviously Murton has proven more but Hoffpauir and McGehee both had very strong springs and may be able to spark some interest. Not to mention I think Cedeno and Fontenot are expendable.

Posted by: bleedcubbieblue | June 04, 2008 at 04:04 PM

Wayne Gomes, Hamilton was traded as an unsure thing, along with Volquez. I doubt the Royals would get that much.

Posted by: GmblngPtchr20 | June 04, 2008 at 04:29 PM

Cardinals look to have a surplus of guys leading up to the All Star break.

With Piniero and Clement making rehab starts and Carpenter not that far behind, I'd suspect Looper or Lohse (both free agents) could be had as well as Clement. And of course, Anthony Reyes is gathering dust in the bargain bin too.

Posted by: Devlsh | June 04, 2008 at 05:00 PM

What's the latest with Barry Zito? The Giants have to be looking to cut their losses. He had a decent May. The guy is healthy, and once upon a time, knew how to pitch. A fresh start couldn't hurt. If the Giants were willing to eat a HUGE chunk of his salary I see teams being interested.

Posted by: nate | June 04, 2008 at 05:02 PM

I definitely could see the Yankees looking into Arroyo. I think he would be one of the first guys they would look too. Affordable, innings eater, durable horse, strikes guys out, knows the division. He makes a ton of sense for the Yankees to me.

Posted by: nrmax88 | June 04, 2008 at 05:13 PM

I say the Cubs trade Felix Pie and Ronny Cedeno for Rich Harden. With the great lineup and bullpen they have, and a 1-2 punch of Zambrano and Harden, the Cubs would be VERY tough to beat in the playoffs. I now we would probably be overpaying, but I want the Cubs to finally win the World Series this year. No more next year, this year.

Posted by: Joe | June 04, 2008 at 06:15 PM

"If the Braves make that trade, hand the division to the Marlins/Phillies"

You include the Marlins instead of the Mets?? That's preposterous

-------------------------------

The A's wouldn't accept Pie and Cedeno for Harden, neither is a top prospect (Pie isn't anymore, and Cedeno never was), A's would want more

Posted by: metzfan22 | June 04, 2008 at 06:21 PM

I have to agree with Metzfan, Joe. I am a Cub fan, too. I was high on Pie and still am...he's only 23. However, Beane will want more than Pie and Cedeno for Harden. I do agree we need to go after a good starter before July 31st.

Posted by: studio179 | June 04, 2008 at 07:12 PM

I think that would be more than enough. Harden is healthy right now and pitching great right now, but he almost definatly will get hurt again. At first I didn't like the idea because it was like giving up 2 good players for another Mark Prior. If that's not enough, what do you think will be a fair trade for Harden?

Posted by: Joe | June 04, 2008 at 07:37 PM

“I definitely could see the Yankees looking into Arroyo.”

…It will be interesting to see what teams do if the Yankees come calling. I can almost see other GMs attempting to take advantage of the situation JuniorStein more than likely will be creating. Will be interesting to see what they are asked to give up if it comes down to them asking…

“I think that would be more than enough” (Pie/Cedeno for Harden)

…Its most certainly not going to be enough. Not only is Pie’s value extremely low right now, the A’s also have quite a bit of depth in the OF. He would be of little value at all to them from my understanding. Cedeno on the other hand holds very little value; he performed really well one week this year, otherwise he has pretty much been the same no-hit, questionable-instinct guy he has previously shown… Then couple those things with the fact that Beane always wants top dollar. It just doesn’t seem that would ever work…

Posted by: darkstar1661 | June 04, 2008 at 08:34 PM

metzfan,

Nothing against your team, but I was thinking as of right now for the standings, not as in later down the road....my fault on that. Seriously though, Boof Bonser is not the answer to anyone's rotation problems.

Posted by: jwrocks | June 04, 2008 at 09:44 PM

You might think Pie/Cedeno is enough for Harden but thank goodness Beane doesn't. Your talking about 2 non-prospects for a potential #1. Yes he can breakdown tomorrow or he can continue his #1 starter dominance. Its a risk that a team is going to have to take. Beane isn't handing out discounts sorry. Do you think the Cubs would be the only ones to bid for his services? I can imagine the Braves, Dodgers, and Brewers to be at the head of the line and with the prospects that the A's are looking for depending on how close and desperate their GMs are.

Posted by: AthleticsReign | June 04, 2008 at 10:59 PM

Redding is under team control for the Nats for I think 2 more years, so he doesn't need to be traded yet. That could help boost his value, though.

Posted by: thehoagster07 | June 04, 2008 at 11:44 PM

Greinke's not going anywhere. 'Nuff said. Meche on the other hand...you never know; Soria could be a nice replacement. By Thursday night the Royals will have Grienke, Gordon, Butler, Moustakas, Hochevar, Cortes, Soria, Bannister, and Eric Hosmer as building blocks. Looks pretty nice to me and I don't have any rooting interest in KC (O's fan).

CC to the Cubs? If Sabathia is on the market, there will be plenty of clubs with much better farm systems all over the big lefty.

Pie and Cedeno for Harden. When did Beane retire?

Since he's just 23 it's not really fair, but Pie has almost no value as a legit prospect at this point. He's Lastings Milledge if Lastings Milledge didn't play and was statistically WORSE. He now sits behind Jim Edmonds' corpse and the reanimated career of Reed Johnson! Pie as a centerpiece trade chip stopped being feasible a week into this season.

Ronnie Cedeno isn't much better, though his numbers are. Let's be fair...he still has just 90 ABs so it isn't as if Sweet Lou is completely sold and his 'D' is pretty terrible. The only people who think he's a legitimate MLB starting SS are Cubs fans and they don't want him to be THEIR starting SS.

I'm not saying that Harden is so great...hell, the guy gets hurt having a bowel movement...but Beane thinks that bowel movement is worth two former first round picks and a Double A All Star, so...

I agree with MarkEllisforMVP; Harden isn't going anywhere...I think. You never want to doubt Beane; the Haren and Swisher deals were friggin' genius. Still, it'll be difficult in this era of extreme caution, for the A's to match up with anyone on Harden due to the odd mix of star talent and inability to stay on the field.

Posted by: milehigh78 | June 04, 2008 at 11:47 PM

BTW- just wrote a great post about how Jeremy Guthrie should be included and comparing/contrasting his numbers with Blanton, Arroyo, and Burnett, for instance (obviously, he can't compete with CC, '08 numbers or no, and both Grienke and Sheet are potential aces, so they're above his level). Mother F$%@! TypeKey lost it! F@(!# it. Just look at the stats over the past two years; aside from K's, an argument can be made that Guthrie is as good or better than the others on the list above (except the legit aces). Guthrie's been particularly good over his past 10 (and especially his past 5) starts. For all the Billy Beane extracting top prospects for Blanton and Harden, talk, I wonder if the rapidly deteriorating O's might consider moving their de facto ace in a few weeks, if they're pushed further out. It might make sense; based on the numbers alone, they might expect to bring some stud prospects in return. Guthrie's a 3 or better on a contending team, with frontline stuff and performances that have begun to match (save for W-L record). I also mentioned how Guthrie is still just 29 (though a bit too old for the O's rebuilding effort) and under team control for a long time coming, without so much as arbitration coming his way for another couple years.

I also think Brian Burres should be floated as a possibility, since he too would be an economical, young, short AND long term solution toward the back of a rotation; a southpaw who, until recently, had been pitching very well in the AL East.

This gives some indication, though I'm still pissed about what I lost. It was better written and more complete. Oh well. Gutty and Burres go, DC stays and the O's return their focus to rebuilding. Huzzah.

Posted by: milehigh78 | June 05, 2008 at 01:07 AM

Harden may be the toughest pitcher to assign trade value to in the entire MLB. You'd have to think Beane would have to be bowled over to move him, the way he's been throwing and with the AL WC situation

Posted by: wayne gomes | June 05, 2008 at 10:58 AM

whats with another dumb cubs fan who thinks their prospects will buy them anything they want

Posted by: willie randolph sucks | June 24, 2008 at 10:10 PM

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