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« Mets Not Interested In Bonds | Main | Odds and Ends: Bedard, Teixeira, Longoria, Durham »
The Angels haven't had substantial trade talks in recent weeks, and GM Tony Reagins likes his club. The Angels are first in the AL West, six games ahead of the A's.
The Angels rank 12th in OBP and 10th in SLG. This puts them 11th in the AL with 4.29 runs per game. Garret Anderson, Gary Matthews Jr., and Erick Aybar have not contributed offensively. You can let Aybar off the hook, but an upgrade at DH/LF would be nice. Fortunately Anderson and Matthews have shown flashes of competence, as their hefty contracts probably mean the Angels are stuck with them.
The Angels' rotation looks great, and the bullpen is respectable.
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The Angels should have no problem running away with the AL West, but can they match up with the big guns in the playoffs with this lineup? Unless the bats get hot in the home stretch and the underachieving guys step up, I think they are destined to be bridesmaids again.
Posted by: KilzBookyz | July 08, 2008 at 11:46 AM
KilzBookyz-
i think you're absolutely right. the Halos don't have the fire power that it takes to match up with the likes of Boston in the postseason. I don't think they'll get past the ALCS with the current roster, if they even make it that far.
Posted by: bseballcrzy17 | July 08, 2008 at 11:57 AM
Come on Angels just go Willits for Dunn. Heck I bet the Reds would throw in cash...anything to get Dunn off our hands and a CF/leadoff hitter into our lineup
Posted by: redhawk61 | July 08, 2008 at 11:59 AM
Sounds like Aubrey Huff would be a perfect fit. He's havin' a career year but I doubt the O's would mind getting rid of him. Wonder if the Angels have soured on Wood enough to deal him for such a pedestrian upgrade (though, in Huff's defense, he's fairly versatile and is on pace for 30 HRs and a .280+BA.) It sounds laughable, but...I don't know anymore. Seems like the Halos just can't find a spot for the kid and might just be willing to give up. What do you all think?
Posted by: milehigh78 | July 08, 2008 at 12:19 PM
Anderson's more recent numbers:
Last 7 days: .444 .524 .833
Last 14 days: .333 .395 .545
Last 28 days: .290 .338 .464
And his clutch stats:
RISP: .301 .349 .411
RISP, 2 out: .342 .375 .395
Late & Close: .356 .420 .511
And that doesn't even include his defensive numbers:
FP 1.000 lgFP .985 RF 2.02 lgRF 1.70
4 assists in just 49 games in the field.
Anderson was the victim of a lot of hard luck ABs earlier in the season, much like Maicer Izturis was. He is still incredibly valuable to the team, both on his own and as left handed protection for Vlad.
As for Matthews, he hasn't been great, but his clutch stats have been much better than his non-clutch ones and that has meant a lot of RBI for such a low average.
Posted by: AA | July 08, 2008 at 12:26 PM
I think Halos fans that are clammoring for a new bat would be hoping the Braves hit a losing skid and warm up to moving Teixeira.
Posted by: KilzBookyz | July 08, 2008 at 12:30 PM
"I think Halos fans that are clammoring for a new bat would be hoping the Braves hit a losing skid and warm up to moving Teixeira."
What for? Kotchman is on pace for less than 40 Ks this year while Tex will go down at least 100 times. Kotchman hits for a higher average and plays better defense. He is also 3 years younger, significantly cheaper and the son of a top scout in the organization. Kotchman is also the much better clutch hitter.
What the Angels need is what they have gotten recently, their support outfielders to heat up.
Posted by: AA | July 08, 2008 at 12:54 PM
AA- I agree Kotchman is a great 1B with a high ceiling. I also agree on your assessment of the real need being the OF's heating up. I'm merely pontificating what the restless fans that always clammor for a "big bat" will be hoping for. I'm sure those guys will be rabble rousing about the potential for a Tex acquisition pretty soon. My personal belief is that the Angels can and will find production within the organization to meet the needs. Perhaps increased AB's from Juan Rivera until Matthews shows signs of consistency would be an option. There is also still plenty of time for a guy like Brandon Wood to get hot and return to LA. Any number of scenarios could play out here in the last half of the season.
Posted by: KilzBookyz | July 08, 2008 at 01:07 PM
The Angels have a good option on the bench- Juan Rivera but hes is getting zero playing time.
Yes his stats stink with no playing time, but he's shown in the past that he can hit when he is in the lineup on a regular basis.
They should play him or trade him.
Posted by: raddude | July 08, 2008 at 01:09 PM
"Come on Angels just go Willits for Dunn. Heck I bet the Reds would throw in cash..."
...Wow, talk about your stupid proposals. How about they just trade Dunn & his salary to Colorado for Pods or Taveres ~ I imagine the Rockies would be thrilled to do it, there would be no point not to... Then the Rockies could turn around and trade Dunn for a package of real prospects from someone else ~ nothing lost for a probable good return of young players...
Posted by: darkstar1661 | July 08, 2008 at 01:15 PM
Raddude-I agree. Rivera should get some more AB's. I don't see him being traded as a rental for another club though, its more likely a play him before he walks at the end of the year scenario.
Posted by: KilzBookyz | July 08, 2008 at 01:19 PM
"Kotchman is on pace for less than 40 Ks this year while Tex will go down at least 100 times. Kotchman hits for a higher average and plays better defense. He is also 3 years younger, significantly cheaper and the son of a top scout in the organization. Kotchman is also the much better clutch hitter."
Since when were BA and SOs offensive metrics? I guess Jose Lopez and his .298/.318/.410 line are better than Vlad Guerrero since he has less SOs and a higher BA.
Also, clutch doesn't exist. It's small sample size and flukes. The large majority of players have career clutch stats very close to their typical career numbers. Tex has been more "clutch" in his career anyway. Kotch just has the slight edge in this half season.
Younger, cheaper, will play longer, better D, yeah I agree but if you're trying to imply he's better offensively because of his BA, SOs, and clutch then that's a complete joke.
Then Angels problem is that their record is a fluky and their outfield is full of old, crappy, overpaid guys. Vlad gets a pass but Matthews, Hunter, and Anderson... Ugh.
Posted by: Victor | July 08, 2008 at 01:36 PM
"I'm merely pontificating what the restless fans that always clammor for a "big bat" will be hoping for."
The Angels have a big bat. He plays right field. The problem with a move to get Tex is that he becomes more expensive next year and you end up giving up a better option in Kotchman. While Kotchman will probably never get close to 40 HR, he provides plenty of other qualities that make him nearly as or just as valuable to have as Tex.
"The Angels have a good option on the bench- Juan Rivera but hes is getting zero playing time."
Problem with that is Rivera has no real trade value right now as he hasn't seen regular time since 2006 (when he mashed the ball and played good defense at all 3 OF positions). The funny thing is, he was doing what GMJ has done this year, playing a mix of the OF positions and DH. Actually, it is probably Rivera's injury that brought GMJ to the team, as Rivera could have probably been the everyday CF last year if he hadn't broken his leg. Hindsight, however, is 20/20 and Rivera did break his leg and the Angels signed GMJ off a career year.
"There is also still plenty of time for a guy like Brandon Wood to get hot and return to LA."
Two problems there. First, there is no way he displaces Figgins at 3B. Figgins is superior defensively, both at 3B and with his versatility, and has more to offer on the offensive side, particularly since Wood has never proved that he can hit MLB pitching, despite a long look this year when Figgins, Aybar and Kendrick were hurt. The Angels are much better off going with Figgins at 3B and the Aybar/Izturis tandem at SS.
Posted by: AA | July 08, 2008 at 01:44 PM
"Since when were BA and SOs offensive metrics?"
Um, since they started measuring them perhaps.
"Then Angels problem is that their record is a fluky"
Fluky, huh? I guess that is why they have a winning record against their non-fluky rivals? 6 games ahead? I guess that is fluky too. 81 days in first place? A fluke. I bet you will still call them a fluke when their magic number is 0.
"if you're trying to imply he's better offensively because of his BA, SOs, and clutch then that's a complete joke."
No, I'm not trying to imply that. Tex is the better hitter for power, there is no question. Kotchman, however, makes much more sense for the Angels when you consider the overall picture.
Posted by: AA | July 08, 2008 at 01:52 PM
The Angels are playing right where they should be.
I think it's very fair to say that their pitching in the 2nd half will significantly regress while I expect their offense to significantly improve. Net, net, you are looking at a very good ball club.
Considering the injuries the team has endured and the prolonged slump of some of their offensive players Angel fans have to ecstatic with where the team is today.
Finally, as for hanging with the big boys, the Angels have done just fine. They sport a winning record against EVERY team in the AL except Tampa and NY (who they haven't played).
Posted by: bjsguess | July 08, 2008 at 03:24 PM
When theres a 7+ game difference between your pythag W-L and real life, then your record can certainly be called flukey or lucky.
Being an A's fan that has 2 or 3 key pieces of offense returning in under 2 weeks and a GM who isnt scared to make a move, hearing that the Angels are going to stick with their overachieving team is music to my ears.
Once Cust gets some protection by the name of Frank Thomas, watch the offense heat up again like it did in May, the A's could very easily catch the Angels.
Posted by: Athletic Domination | July 08, 2008 at 03:25 PM
One other note - the Angels don't have a lot of positions in which an upgrade would work. They are locked in at:
1B
2B
3B
CF
RF
C
They could do something at short but there aren't a lot of options that would improve on Aybar. LF is the next best spot but in order to trade for another OF they would need to send back an outfielder (or three). DH is the last option but between Vlad and GA I like having the DH spot empty for giving their inevitable ailing backs/knees, etc a break.
Posted by: bjsguess | July 08, 2008 at 03:27 PM
Come on Athletic Domination ... you think you can play at the same level for the rest of the year?
Rich Harden has to stay healthy. Good luck with that. How about Duchscherer. Counting on a sub 2 ERA to continue? Eveland and Smith are both pitching over their head. The only guy that will actually improve (most likely) is Blanton.
Pinning your hopes on Frank Thomas is a bad strategy. When he can't make it with the punchless Jays it's hard to imagine him being a real difference maker with the A's. Cust can hit the long ball but a 224BA is hard to blame on a lack of protection.
The A's are a 500 ball club. Nothing wrong with that considering this was supposed to be a rebuilding year. They will repeat the Mariners 2007 second half and come back down to earth.
Posted by: bjsguess | July 08, 2008 at 03:33 PM
RedHawk,
That Adam Dunn for Reggie Willits offer seems pretty fair. The Reds get a center field, leadoff guy, the Angels get a big masher to hit in the middle of their lineup. I seems to make sense and then the Angels would be able to go move Juan Rivera.
Posted by: Joe | July 08, 2008 at 03:53 PM
"That Adam Dunn for Reggie Willits offer seems pretty fair."
Just what the Angels don't need. Another low batting average/strikeout prone outfielder. Angels need to go for it like the Brewers did with CC and trade for Matt Holliday. Give up some pitching and position prospects and go for it all this year. Their pitching will never be better. If they don't pick up another big bat they'll never make it past the AL playoffs with GA and GMJ.
Posted by: Roxie | July 08, 2008 at 04:06 PM
"When theres a 7+ game difference between your pythag W-L and real life"
Do we live in real life or a giant Faux-Pythagorean Theoreum? The problem with relying on those numbers is you don't account for massively lopsided games and you discount situational hitting and a top notch bullpen.
"One other note - the Angels don't have a lot of positions in which an upgrade would work. They are locked in at:"
I wouldn't say they are "locked in" at Catcher, especially with Napoli hurt, but the combination of defense and the ability to put just enough of a scare in pitchers with the bat is there.
"I think it's very fair to say that their pitching in the 2nd half will significantly regress while I expect their offense to significantly improve."
Why should their pitching regress? Santana has been projected as a future ace for years and Lackey could have easily won the Cy Young last year. Saunders was a first round pick and Weaver has under-, not overachieved. The only one who seems to be pitching a bit over his head is Garland recently, though he has the perfect style for Angel Stadium and the Angels top notch defense.
Posted by: AA | July 08, 2008 at 04:47 PM
"That Adam Dunn for Reggie Willits offer seems pretty fair."
Yes, because trading a 27YO who is one of the better OPS guys in all of baseball for a 27YO without the power to even send a ball to the outfield is brilliant…
“Just what the Angels don't need. Another low batting average/strikeout prone outfielder.”
…Angels don’t need OBP and SLG? Shoot, could have fooled me… Infact, wasn’t that kind of what the thread is about ~ doesn’t it say “The Angels rank 12th in OBP and 10th in SLG.” In the thread? Ahh, whatever…
Anyway, if the Angels were able to actually pull in Dunn on the cheap they would just release Anderson and get the suffering over with…
Posted by: darkstar1661 | July 08, 2008 at 08:49 PM
"When theres a 7+ game difference between your pythag W-L and real life, then your record can certainly be called flukey or lucky."
Go figure it would be an A's fan that would pull out the Pythag to try to belittle what the Angels have accomplished.
So the Angels lost 10-2 last night. Basically, if they won 3 straight by 2 runs after this, they'd still have 2 more runs against than runs for...which would give them a 3-1 record, but a 1-3 pythag. Would you say that a team in such a case is merely "lucky" to be 3-1, or that they are, in fact, just good at winning baseball games with an occasional blowout? C'mon, dude. Think about this outside of the realm of statheads for a minute. The Angels have a lights-out rotation, a solid bullpen with one of the best closers in the game, and an underachieving offense. They also have been blown-out quite a few times this year.
So you're going to say they're merely "lucky" to have a roster that can create and hold close games on a consistent basis? That sounds more like good franchise building to me. It's certainly better than the A's method of operation...score 10 runs one day, and 0 the next, for an OVER-inflated pythag.
Posted by: skelley | July 12, 2008 at 12:09 PM
"When theres a 7+ game difference between your pythag W-L and real life, then your record can certainly be called flukey or lucky."
Go figure it would be an A's fan that would pull out the Pythag to try to belittle what the Angels have accomplished.
So the Angels lost 10-2 last night. Basically, if they won 3 straight by 2 runs after this, they'd still have 2 more runs against than runs for...which would give them a 3-1 record, but a 1-3 pythag. Would you say that a team in such a case is merely "lucky" to be 3-1, or that they are, in fact, just good at winning baseball games with an occasional blowout? C'mon, dude. Think about this outside of the realm of statheads for a minute. The Angels have a lights-out rotation, a solid bullpen with one of the best closers in the game, and an underachieving offense. They also have been blown-out quite a few times this year.
So you're going to say they're merely "lucky" to have a roster that can create and hold close games on a consistent basis? That sounds more like good franchise building to me. It's certainly better than the A's method of operation...score 10 runs one day, and 0 the next, for an OVER-inflated pythag.
Posted by: skelley | July 12, 2008 at 12:10 PM
Why release Anderson, DarkStar? He's a second-half type of player, who has just started to hit again in the last 3 weeks on a pretty consistent basis (.306/.375/.452 in those 3 weeks). He's not the hitter he once was, but he's stepping up again, and if he does even HALF of what he did in the second half of last season, then he'll be a welcome asset to the offense. Seeing as he's in the last year of his contract, releasing him serves essentially no purpose.
Posted by: skelley | July 12, 2008 at 12:55 PM