Jarrod Washburn Rumors

Howie Kendrick looks good, but right now, he's not better... Brian Roberts causes as many outs as he does prevents... He does a lot of things good in the stat column, but he's one of the few guys who is actually too aggressive with his base stealing and trying to take extra bases... When we played Baltimore, the first thing I noticed was that he ran his team out of a lot of big innings... Those things are big and he's been deteriorating a lot, to the point that we NEVER hear him brought up in trade discussions... Polanco has been overhyped for years, and while he's a good 2B, he's not the All-Star that everyone acts like he is!

ZBham, good points, my thoughts exactly.

Teams don't just take on 14 million in salary and give away a top prospect for a year and two months of a league average pitcher, especially when they aren't exactly pressed for starting pitching. The Mariners can either pick up a portion of Washburn's salary and trade him to someone other than the Yanks (as they'd rather have the prospect than the money anyway) for a good prospect, or they can take a decent prospect and get rid of the salary. As for everyone saying the Mariners don't need to dump salary, I think everyone gets that they have the money to pay Washburn, but I think the point you are missing is that they could find far better uses for that money than Washburn. And no ZBham, they don't have to waste the money of free agents. They could just as easily take guys who drop in the draft because of asking price and pay them above slot money. They could also spend the excess money on international signings to bolster their farm system. Their are plenty of ways to spend the money, but I think we can all agree there are far better uses than Jarrod Washburn.

I love how BaseballGuru claims the guy with the .364 OBP causes too many outs, while the guy with the .320 OBP is one of the best 2B in the game. Even if you factor in the other outs that Roberts has made, he has still made fewer outs per plate appearance than Lopez.

Actually not that bad analysis on the 2B. I'd still say Roberts is better at this point in time (he's been CS 10 times but he's got 27 SB and beats Lopez in a lot of other categories) but otherwise agree.

As for the Yankees trade, would the Mariners really do that? The Yankees would be taking on even more salary, and I don't think the Mariners seem high on losing Joh. I know Clement is the future and all, but Joh got that huge contract and it's not like he couldn't move to DH/1B (or Clement could for that matter).

Thanks Guru. I suppose if I wanted to make myself sound smart, I wouldn't have called myself Know ID yuh. Another thing I like about Mariner fans, how pretentious they are. It is clear you follow the game closely, so cheers to you. It is also clear that you are not very bright.

And keep hoping for a good return on Washburn. It is not like teams are looking to unload prospects for a pitcher making three times what his value is. Even if the Mariners don't have to unload salary, who in their right mind would want to unload prospects to pay Washburn a ton? If the Mariners get a prospect for Washburn, consider yourself lucky.

Pettitte in 2007 finished June with an ERA of 3.24 ended the season with an ERA of 4.05, that's futility at it's best. That's 11 starts with giving up 3 ER or more and 5 starts where he got shelled out of 18. A total of a a 4.84 ERA for the last three months.

In 2006 he had 10 QS out of 18 games, 16 of which were starts. That's far from #1 or #2 starts. I'll take a guy that gets hammered in three starts and pitches great the rest of the time over a guy that barely misses a one good, one bad, Jekyl and Hyde type performance.

To bring up 2005 which was 1.44 runs per 9 IP below his career average is questionable at best and shows true cherry picking of stats... I said recently, that was meant to be post HGH usage...

In 15 years Maddux has never walked more than 45 batters and averages around 30 per season-ish. Not going to compute it, but mostly he's in the 30s with a few 20s to balance out the high years from 1994 to present. his strikout total pre-40 years old was never less than 136 except for 118 and 124, the rest of the years he had many more strikeouts and far less walks than Wang... There's a reason Wang is a feast or famine type pitcher, he doesn't know which version of himself is going out on any given day and that can be said of most of the Yankees starters, which is why I'm not big on them, anti-Yankee bias aside.

Kenji Johjima as a 1B/DH. Haha, isn't he hitting .208 with three HRs? I guess the Mariners might consider it because Vidro at DH might almost be as bad. Maybe that is why Vidro has a job.

Keep going Mariner fans, I'm loving it.

ZBham,

You need to find someone other than the Yanks to deal with if you'd rather pick up some salary and get a better prospect though. I'm sure they'd rather pay the extra money and hold onto their guys. You also seem to be missing the point I'm trying to make about giving up Washburn. I'm not saying that they couldn't sign international guys with Washburn's salary still on the books. What I'm saying is that the Mariners have a budget for how much they can spend in a year and if they pay 14 million to Washburn, that's 14 million they can no longer use on draft picks, international free agents, and major league salaries. They can obviously spend a lot more in those areas if they move Washburn.

"Felix has great stuff, but watch his next start and see how he works the batters, it's not just his stuff, there are guys out there with insane "stuff" who still get hammered, i.e. AJ Burnett in 2008, Mike Mussina in 2007, Daniel Cabrera career"

Mike Mussina in 2007 has insane stuff that is a joke. Mussina is entering the last few years of his career and his "stuff" isn't what it used to be.

Dang, I forgot... Lopez also has twice the SF, strikes out a 1/3 as much, drives in 150% of the runs Roberts does, is only 24 and his power is developing, I wouldn't be surprised if he ends with 15 HR, probably will be more like 12, but 15 is well within his reach. He's getting better and I think he's already caught Roberts as far as production goes. As for the base stealing, Billy Beane syays that anything less than 80% success at stealing is a detriment to the teams success, hense Roberts with only 2 seasons of better than 80% and I believe the number is 86.7, but I'm going off memory from seeing it in an article once a few weeks ago...

The point is that with a "96 mph fastball and a good sinker" he should be making more bats miss that's alarming to me on the surface... Even if he's not a strikeout guy, if your stuff is that good, you'll get the outs, plus Maddux never was wild enough to get the good strikeout totals, if you are always around the plate the batters know it and they change their approach accordingly, look at David Wells, one of the best pitchers in terms of locating pitches and eliminating walks, he got hammered a lot because of how often he was in the strike zone, to his own admission, his best performances was when his command faltered. When you walk guys and stay out of the strike zone the way Wang does with his questionable command, you should have players in a more passive state, not feeling forced to swing, so you should get called 3rd strikes and guys chasing out of the zone, he doesn't, this means he's not the dominant pitcher everyone has him written down for and finally as far as Washburn vs. Wang, let's also not forget than Wang has had the benefit of starting against Seattle that Washburn hasn't... If Washburn had two starts against our craptastic offense, his ERA would be 4.00

Oh and I just went through the play-by-plays for the Baltimore Seattle four game set and Roberts got thrown out 3 times all series. The only reason you think its so much more is all 3 happened in 1 game. One was a caught stealing and 2 times he got thrown out at home. I'm actually willing to bet that this one game is the only reason you believe he makes 50 outs on the bases each season. That's just insane man.

Well what's 5 or 6 out 16 plate appearances 31.25% to 37.5%, so yeah, I guess he just brought his A game against us...

hayeclan, thanks for taking the time to say that... I try and stay impartial, it's to appear that when you know more about "your team", but I stay up on all things baseball, have been sick with baseball fever for 20 years and suck up stats left and right... It's one of the few things I truly get on cerebral level...

Ah, Nixa. We were researching the same thing at the same time.

You should target a high ceiling OF like Adam Jones.

(Sorry. I actually feel bad for fans of teams with awful/hotseat GMs. If Cashman had buckled this offseason and traded Hughes, I may have barfed.)

It would be great if we could get a team to give up a major OF prospect. The M's don't have any big OF in their system, so it would be a big stretch to try and fill two of our OF spots with our own guys. We will be lucky if we can get one of our guys to become a decent major leaguer.

Its not what Beane says, its a statistical calculation. Its based on how many times the gain in run expectancy offsets the losses which, I think for this season, still requires right around 72% success. That's what Beane/Depo used, but its not 72% for ever and ever, its based on hitting environment for a given season. Could drop to 67%, could jump to 77%.

(And I beg you not to make arguments based on runs. If Roberts isn't scoring, its not because he's doing something wrong, its because guys aren't hitting him in. The 44 point OBP difference does not (and cannot) lie; Roberts can't be an "unclutch" scorer after a single.

Obviously SB are a different story, but I'm refering to the main offensive categories XBH, AVG, OBP (maybe), SLG, etc.

As for the Mariners moving Beltre for salary relief is silly, he's a Type A player which gets us two top picks, if we hold onto him he makes us better, he helps support our young pitchers defensively, and honestly who cares what the team saves, we don't get a ticket discount, so we only need to worry about trades that make us better...

On any other team Melky Cabrera would be Fred Lewis, let's not get it twisted. Gardner is Juan Pierre. We aren't talking about Adam Jones (who I think is terribly overrated and average at best) or LaPorta for two months of Sabathia.

Considering the Mariners by all accounts has the worst lineup and Vidro has been the guy batting after Lopez I can more than make that assessment with a clear mind. Also it was Beane who created the moneyball theory/perfected it and it's his evaluation that led to the SB% being considered more closely... Also for reference Greg Maddux states that he doesn't care about SB as he says they rarely lead to runs, in his estimations a SB leads to a run less than 17% of the time... And yes, that's a quote!

Okay, and you must be the most unbiased poster as his 9 HR at AA project to 15 over a full season, with power development that numbe may double at best equaling 30 and with development he'll be a 20 HR guy in the majors, bet on it...

"Okay, and you must be the most unbiased poster as his 9 HR at AA project to 15 over a full season, with power development that numbe may double at best equaling 30 and with development he'll be a 20 HR guy in the majors, bet on it..."

LOL!!!!

He's 21 in AA. 21. In AA.

Of course, we're talking to Mr. Extrapolation = Projection.

I'm not wrong, it's not proven, you've just stated that the answer is unknown... I agree with that... Then you rebuffed my statement with a sample size and claimed that to be more precise... Until we breakdown a whole season we don't know, which is why I said, I WILL DO THAT WHEN I HAVE TIME AS TONIGHT I WORK... I didn't say I was absolutely right, I said that I'm not willing to agree I'm wrong until I DO THE RESEARCH and KNOW I'm wrong until then we are both offering up perceptions which is neither right or wrong. Want to prove me wrong, grab some paper and a pen and start going through 2007 and 2008 and see what his per AB/G average is!

"Okay, and you must be the most unbiased poster as his 9 HR at AA project to 15 over a full season, with power development that numbe may double at best equaling 30 and with development he'll be a 20 HR guy in the majors, bet on it..."

I hate to pile on here, but this is lazy use of numbers. Do a quick search on "minor league park factors" and you'll see that Trenton is massive HR deflation park.

I've read it a lot. More times than Brian Roberts got popped on the bases in early April. It sits in my bathroom and when I run out of books I end up going back to it. Your comment on SB% is a textbook (pun) example of someone misunderstanding the book. Its not about walks, its not about hating HS players and its not about pulling one stat out of there without understanding it.

So what?! Even if that deflates his stats by 50% that means he has 13 HR in 2/3 a season?! So what he'd be on course for 20 HR in a smaller than MLB park?! Typical dimensions for a minor league park appear to be 310-315, 365-370, 390... That's a far cry from 325-345, 375-385, 405-420 for most major league stadiums. All I'm saying is that there are hundreds of players a year that put up Jacksons stat line across minor league baseball and that because he was the chosen one on paper doesn't make him the second coming of the messiah.

Trenton 3 Yr HR Park Factor: 84
High Desert 3 Yr HR Park Factor: 1.26

(Peeks into Guru's corner, waiting for the towel to come in)

"As for AA 21, how about we project Greg Halman's 24 HR/25SB at 20 across high A/AA this year through 93 games?! You think Jackson's better than that?! Oh wait, it must be because you either A) have never heard of Halman B) he's not a Yankee minor leaguer
or C) all of the above"

I don't 'project' minor league stats.

I don't know his leagues; are they hitters leagues? Pitchers leagues? Does his home park suppress or help HRs? What are his CSes? (SBs (outside of 60 SB) guys in single-A are meaningless; catchers in A ball stink).

No, I don't know much about Halman.

However, here's a good read: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/6/18/553727/controversial-prospect-gre

"So what?! Even if that deflates his stats by 50% that means he has 13 HR in 2/3 a season?! So what he'd be on course for 20 HR in a smaller than MLB park?! Typical dimensions for a minor league park appear to be 310-315, 365-370, 390... That's a far cry from 325-345, 375-385, 405-420 for most major league stadiums. All I'm saying is that there are hundreds of players a year that put up Jacksons stat line across minor league baseball and that because he was the chosen one on paper doesn't make him the second coming of the messiah."

STAT LINES IN THE MINORS ARE NOT THE END ALL BE ALL!

There are SO many different leagues in the minors. You can NOT project minor league stats to the majors. Otherwise, Nelson Cruz = future HOFer, right?

The two most important things to take from a guy's minor league stats are A) pitch recognition (not swinging at balls, swinging at strikes), and B) squaring the ball on the bat when you swing (this leads to power).

Get a clue, man.

I know you're wrong on the Brian Roberts thing because I understand stats and I know that no one gets cut down on the bases 30% of the time they make it on base. That just bat$h!t crazy. You also have completely left aside the fact that Lopez also gets thrown out on the bases and Roberts aggressive baserunning can also help his team at times.
You are honestly one of the dumbest, most stubborn people I've ever debated with online. Sadly I had a longrunning argument with one guy who believed Pujols would hit 500 HRs by the end of his year 30 season so its going to take some more work for you to get to the top spot

Tell ya what, we'll give you Pavano for Halman and Clement, ROFL!

Not Joe Morgan: states what he feels

Guru: states what he's found in research and trusts the knowledge of paid professionals.

Do you want me to explain run expectancy to you? Because you can recite Beane all you want; I can explain to you the tool that Depodesta utilized to give Beane the information that allowed him to give the quote that you posted here.

"Not Joe Morgan: states what he feels

Guru: states what he's found in research and trusts the knowledge of paid professionals."

Guru = idiotic homer who thinks Mariners players/prospects are 10x better than any other team's. Yet is consistently surprised at how godawful his team/prospects end up. LOL!

Mariners have 5 guys who have or will hit 20+ HRs there and many others with a handful plus already... That my friend is a lot more than the 40 the Trenton AA team has hit as whole.

In a low HR environment. We can't say this anymore. Its consistent over several years (as players pass through) so I'm not even sure where the argument is. Its like ignoring that Duchscherer is benefiting from Oakland or that Holliday gets a big bump from Coors.

"Mariners have 5 guys who have or will hit 20+ HRs there and many others with a handful plus already... That my friend is a lot more than the 40 the Trenton AA team has hit as whole."

The Mariners are going to have the best offense in the majors in a couple years, OMG!!!!

(Not).

GURU do youm realize NO ONE ON THIS ENTIRE SITE LIKES YOU.

You are arrogant,annoying and just plain stupid.

Even Tim doesn't like you.

I wish Jackson were a lefty just so he could benefit from an HR friendly environment once he got to the majors while the Seattle hitters would go to one that favors pitchers. Then we'd all meet back here in 3 years and discuss.

"I wish Jackson were a lefty just so he could benefit from an HR friendly environment once he got to the majors while the Seattle hitters would go to one that favors pitchers. Then we'd all meet back here in 3 years and discuss."

I'm glad he's not - the Yankees need some RH power on their team going forward.

(When necessary, of course. I imagine Joe II won't stop him from hitting lefty against the right handers.)

You guys have all proven your short-sightedness. I, not Capper, was the one who used Jose Cruz Jr. about the farm-system idea. Prior to this year the Mariners farm system WAS INDEED something good. Cruz Jr, in particular, sparked the interest of many a'team when he left Seattle. You guys are pretty messed up to rake a guy over the coals for him almost dying on the baseball field and ending his career. Real smooth, wannabe scouts...

I still have yet to see a blogger (and not just the writers) on here be right about a single speculation they have made. Until I see someone actually get one of these speculations right, whether it be JoeMorgan or Baseball_guru, it doesn't matter whether the Brewers offer Jabba the Hutt for the Mets' Boba Fett we've all been pretty way off.

"You guys have all proven your short-sightedness. I, not Capper, was the one who used Jose Cruz Jr. about the farm-system idea. Prior to this year the Mariners farm system WAS INDEED something good. Cruz Jr, in particular, sparked the interest of many a'team when he left Seattle. You guys are pretty messed up to rake a guy over the coals for him almost dying on the baseball field and ending his career. Real smooth, wannabe scouts..."

Can anyone parse this thing for me? I'd really like to respond, but I honestly have no idea where to begin.

I would give up shelly maybe or chris britton maybe wassbourn is old Wang right know is better guru we aren't getting him of four years ago he should have a 4.4 era today if he. Started with yanks that's worth shelly he worth six mil a year he is a four starter maybe brunney he worth something not slot guru overhypes him and Morgan sells him short

I don't know how good there minor league system is currently, but I would certainly agree that they have done a good job producing prospects recently. They were able to put together a deal for Bedard and still have a few hyped prospects left, so at least recently they've done well.

ms minor has done well there is no question with that the yanks have good prosects to

There is no need to talk about the rumor about washburn anymore. He is not a good pitcher so mariners want to dump him and fans here want to dump him,too. They want to get something much more valuable than washburn. Mission Impossible. It is that simple.

God, this site is full of some of the stupidest people I've ever seen.......you want to link stats for a couple of young players who have 100 or so ABs and say they suck?

Honestly, for as good as some of the posting is here by the staff, this site draws some of the stupidest people I've ever seen.

"Do you want me to post what Hugues has done in the majors?"

Before, or after, his fractured ribs?

I don't get why I was lumped in as anti-Jose Cruz Jr. I actually like(d) the guy; nice plate discipline with some pop.

Guru got brutalized here. It was like that bar scene in Good Will Hunting with the blond ponytailed guy.

- Good Not Joe Morgan