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By Tim Dierkes [July 25, 2008 at 8:53am CST]
Fresh column from Ken Rosenthal.
- The Rockies, six games out in the NL West, could certainly become buyers. They offered Clint Barmes for Jeremy Guthrie and were turned down, and continue to monitor Bronson Arroyo and Tim Redding. Closer Brian Fuentes still seems likely to be traded though (the demand: top of the line prospect and a secondary player).
- Rosenthal cautions us against judging the Pirates' new regime too quickly. The deadline will be a good test for them.
- The Yankees definitely have interest in Rangers catcher Gerald Laird, but haven't asked the Royals about Miguel Olivo.
- The Astros are unlikely to flip Randy Wolf before the deadline, partially due to lack of interest.
Barmes? Seriously? I think they need to rethink that offer...
Posted by: XD23 | July 25, 2008 at 09:07 AM
I dont think the Rockies will trade Fuentes, and I think they will end up getting Arroyo or Guthrie.
If the Astros were thinking about dealing Wolf, why deal for him in the 1st place? I dont think they have a clue what there doing.
The Yankees, IMO, stick with Moeller and Molina. I dont see them making a move, except I can see them check in on Bay and Nady a few more times, and if the Pirates price is too high, they'll hang up the phone and try to do a Teixeira deal. I think they can do Melky, Miranda, Horne and maybe a Marquez type player for Teixeira.
Posted by: yanks26ngoin | July 25, 2008 at 09:11 AM
Clint Barmes?!!!! HAhahahahahahahahahahaaha!
Good God, the Rox may have the most moronic front office out there. Lemme get this straight...they think Brian Fuentes- a reliever- is worth Clay Buchholz, Wade Davis, Chris Volstad...basically any team's best starting pitching prospect (I'm sure that if the O's asked about him, they'd be asking for Chris Tillman). But when they inquire about a starting pitcher under team control for the next four or five years, in the midst of a second straight impressive season- a fairly legit No. 2 or at least 3 (though he's the Orioles' de facto No. 1)- they offer...Clint friggin' Barmes?!!!! Retardsayswhat?
Posted by: milehigh78 | July 25, 2008 at 09:24 AM
Let's just get this straight. Guthrie is 29, is under team control until 2013, isn't even available for ARBITRATION until 2010, has a solid 3.58 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, an OK 92 Ks in 140 IP- among the league's leaders, demonstrating durability- and, as a former first round draft pick, the stuff to back up the frontline numbers. What in the name of Vishnu (I dunno, just felt like saying Vishnu) are the Rockies thinking?! At first I was upset that the O's weren't at least considering using Guthrie as trade bait. But after that offer, I can't blame 'em.
He's not only has better numbers than any other pitcher currently on the market...he's just a better pitcher. Arroyo, Burnett, Blanton (I know he's not on the market any more, but...)...you name 'em. Of the names discussed this deadline-period, only Sabathia is clearly superior. I'd also include Harden, but there's obviously a monster caveat with him (though, at his best, he's admittedly, head and shoulders over Guthrie- no knock on Guthrie, he's just that good).
Frankly, that offer is insulting. If the Rox really wanted Guthrie, they're going to have to make a REAL offer- Chacin, Gomez, AND Reynolds; Morales AND Stewart. Too much? More than Sabathia? Tell me, then, how much is a starter who can give you 200+ innings and a sub-4.00 ERA on the cheap for the next four and a half years worth? I wonder what the Rockies would ask for Aaron Cook under the same circumstances? Something tells me the 'winning' bid would have to include half the farm and the GMs first-born.
Posted by: milehigh78 | July 25, 2008 at 09:39 AM
yanks- No chance on that Tex deal. No chance. I know he's a rental and all, but consider what they gave up for him. Now consider that they'll get back 2 high draft picks if they offer arbitration and he walks. Hmmmm. 2 draft picks or a fourth OF'er and three fairly crappy prospects? I know where I lean.
The likelihood is that Big Tex will run the Yankees one of Hughes or Kennedy as well as Ajax and some filler. Maybe something along the lines of Kennedy, Tabata, Heredia. No one- not even Billy Beane- gets by on the Braves (and for the record, I'm not even remotely a Braves fan).
Posted by: milehigh78 | July 25, 2008 at 09:48 AM
Aaron Cook is making big money. Guthrie is not up to that stage of his career. He is worth a ton and I doubt unless the O's get themselves a Longoria, Braun or any players such as that I can't see him moving.
Posted by: XD23 | July 25, 2008 at 10:09 AM
XD23- I'm as big an O's fan as you'll find, and while I agree it'll take a legit TOP top prospect to wrest Guthrie from Baltimore, you may be overstating things a bit with the Longoria/Braun talk. Those guys are established young MLB (rising) stars. No way the Rays would make that deal and it's HIGHLY unlikely the Brewers take it either (though Braun's suspect D makes him more likely than Longoria).
It's a minor quibble, but still... Now, if you're talking about a minor league stud with the POTENTIAL to put up monster numbers, I'll agree. I DO think it would take something like a Colby Rasmus or Fernando Martinez headlining a package to get the job done. Again, like I mentioned above, if Colorado wanted Guthrie we're talking about STARTING with a Jhoulys Chacin or Dexter Fowler and moving on from there.
Posted by: milehigh78 | July 25, 2008 at 11:07 AM
Come on now.
First the Rockies want Guthrie and are willing to give up Barmes. Idiotic trade proposal. The Rockies are just crazy these days.
Then we have an O's fan who thinks that Guthrie is worth a Longoria or Braun type return. That's even more absurd.
Guthrie is a nice 2/3 pitcher. He would compliment most rotations in baseball. But, he is not an impact pitcher. The guy will give you slightly better than LA production. You don't trade Braun for something like that.
Posted by: bjsguess | July 25, 2008 at 11:54 AM
Bjsguess is absolutely right.
As an O's fan, I've loved the fact that we turned Guthrie from a waiver wire signing right before spring training (somewhere around then) and he has produced at a high level. But realistically Guthrie is a 2/3 on a team with pitching. He was only the OD starter this year and our ace by default after Bedard was traded away.
Posted by: cdavis627 | July 25, 2008 at 12:39 PM
Bjsguess is absolutely right.
As an O's fan, I've loved the fact that we turned Guthrie from a waiver wire signing right before spring training last season(somewhere around then) and he has produced at a high level. But realistically Guthrie is a 2/3 on a team with pitching. He was only our OD starter this year and our ace by default after Bedard was traded away.
Posted by: cdavis627 | July 25, 2008 at 12:41 PM
Didn't I- an admitted O's fan- just say that? Only thing I disagree with is the assessment that Guthrie is 'not an impact pitcher.'
Perhaps I don't understand what that means, but to my thinking a Number 2 (or even a good 3, which- were he cast in that lot- would certainly apply) IS an impact pitcher. Is he a star? No. I'd use the old baseball card terminology of semi-star at best (wow, that was geeky; honestly, I don't collect baseball cards, I just remember like an elephant).
Still, any pitcher who can toss 200 innings and manage to consistently hold the opposition to 3 runs or fewer- something Guthrie has done without fail since early May- and keep his team in every game he pitches, is having a mighty impact and would be a pretty important addition to any team making a playoff run.
Again, maybe I'm just not understanding your meaning.
Furthermore, I think you'll find that considerably better than a league average pitcher; though, again, that's a bit subjective.
All that said, don't let one excitable O's fan get you thinking that we all think he'd pull a Longoria. Clearly that isn't the case. Most of us will gladly admit that he's a No. 2 (at best).
Then again, when you consider the market post-CC, post-Harden...that looks awfully good (particularly when taking his contract into consideration).
Posted by: milehigh78 | July 25, 2008 at 02:10 PM
I wouldn't trade Guthrie, period.
The Orioles don't have the arms right now to field a reasonable team without him.
It's probably a reasonable trade, but I wouldn't do Ian Stewart for Guthrie.
Like a starving man needs a loaf of bread, the Orioles need Gurthrie.
Posted by: delaware_bird | July 25, 2008 at 03:07 PM
milehigh said:
"No one- not even Billy Beane- gets by on the Braves (and for the record, I'm not even remotely a Braves fan)."
Hmmmmm, seems like the Rangers bent the Braves over pretty good about this time last year. And all this new Teixeira talk only provides more evidence that Jon Daniels absolutely fleeced the Braves. And instead of Tex, the Rangers now have one of the top 5 pitching prospects, one of the top 5 SS prospects, a solid back of the rotation lefty, a LH reliever who has been lights out this year, and Salty....who if nothing else is one hell of a trade chip. So yea, people do occasionally take the Braves to the cleaners.
Posted by: SteveBuechele | July 25, 2008 at 04:30 PM
SteveBuechele,
Not so fast. We don't know what the Braves will get for Tex, either before the deadline or in draft picks.
And besides, Salty was blocked, Andrus was blocked and won't be ready for the ML for another couple of years and even then may not pan out.
The jury is still out on this deal. After all, if you look at the Andy Marte trade today, the Braves wound up getting Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez for Marte --with two years of Renteria to boot.
These deals may take years to play out.
Posted by: ink-stained scribe | July 25, 2008 at 05:47 PM
Ink-stained scribe,
Two words: Neftali Feliz!
The jury has come back with its verdict and it was unanimous. The Braves got destroyed in that deal...any way you slice it. As of today, 3 of those guys are in AA and 2 are on the major league roster. If Jon Daniels called the Braves and offered to reverse that deal....they would have Tex on a plane to Arlington before the conversation was over.
Posted by: SteveBuechele | July 25, 2008 at 07:04 PM