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Draft Reactions: Nationals

The dust has settled on the 2008 amateur draft.  The Nationals, Pirates, and Royals had storylines worthy of a closer look. 

The Nationals failed to sign their first round pick, college righty Aaron Crow.  Crow might've completely skipped the minors had he signed.  ESPN's Keith Law considers the Crow situation a major blunder for the organization.  The Washington Post learned the details via a lengthy Q&A with GM Jim Bowden.  Here are some highlights:

  • Crow is represented by Randy and Alan Hendricks, and much of the discussion occurred over email.  Last Tuesday the Nats were told it'd take a $9MM big league deal.  Bowden wanted the Hendricks brothers to explain the rationale behind that figure, but the Hendricks brothers did not provide it. 
  • Law blames the Nationals for not properly gauging Crow's signability before the draft.  That point comes up in the Q&A but Bowden does not provide a clear answer on how he gauges signability.  He mentions that they knew they couldn't afford Rick Porcello last year, but doesn't explain why they thought they could afford Crow.
  • The Nats were offering $2.25MM on a minor league deal until Brian Matusz signed Friday, six hours before the deadline.  Matusz got a $3.5MM Major League deal.  Bowden called and said he'd do a deal within that framework, but the Hendricks were not interested. 
  • At one point Bowden gave in and offered a Major League deal, but this offer was by the boards at 6:30pm on deadline day.  That's because the Nats would not have had enough time to give Crow a physical, and a big league contract can't be voided.  Both sides seemed to understand this.
  • 15 minutes before the deadline, Crow's agents dropped their demand to $4.4MM on a minor league deal.  In the last few minutes the Nats offered $3.3MM, and then went to $3.5MM over the phone at the buzzer.  Needless to say the offer was not accepted, and the Nats lost Crow over $900K.
  • I agree with Bowden's implication that the Hendricks brothers didn't do a great job here - their client now has to play for the Fort Worth Cats for a year when he could've been in the Major Leagues.  This looks ugly for both sides, and neither agents nor teams seem happy with the idea of a midnight deadline. 
  • It's fair to consider Bowden on thin ice.  The FBI investigation, public mention of his plan to non-tender Chad Cordero, and many of his contract extensions form a poor resume coupled with the Crow situation.


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And these are the same guys Hamilton switched to because his previous agent, one of the best in baseball, was Jewish. Looks like they cost Matsuz and the Nats big time

Awsome recap.
Very interesting stuff.
Looks like Nationals missed out, but also looks like these agents are idiots, trying to be like Boras but dropped the ball.

You can look at it both ways. The Nats lost him over 900K but this college kid turned down $3.5 million dollars to play Major League Baseball. Now he runs the risk of injuring himself playing for peanuts in the Indy leagues. On top of that, if he doesn't show well there, he won't get the kind of money he was offered here.

Stupid all the way around. But I think the agents screwed this kid over. 9 million starting point?? Are you kidding? That'll put a team on their heels right quick.

Did anybody else notice the 7:00am post time for this, I'm just making sure I'm not losing it.

I wouldn't give the rookie $9 million either, but considering the state of the Nationals I would've given in to the $4.4 mil minor league contract.

Both sides did very poor. Bowden is an idiot.

Sounds to me like he didn't want to play in Washington...

I'm sorry, but I put some of the blame on Crow and his family. I know the agents are there to do the work, but if he turned down $3.5M he's an idiot. The risk/reward in playing Independent ball is simply not worth the 900K he lost out on. If this kid get's hurt he's going to regret this decision for the rest of his life. If he stays healthy, how much higher is he going to be able to sign for?

I think these kids (and their agents) really need to rethink their negotiating tactics going forward. Because Crow's team started off with a ridiculous demand, they ended up losing valuable time and the chance to get him into the Nats' system this summer.

Now this kid is going to play for peanuts, risk injury or getting exposed as another Matt Harrington, and miss out on having $3.5 to 4 million in the bank and working for him. These things are all about the ego of the agents and their ability to brag to their next client "Hey, look at what I got this player".

$3.5 Salary
$1.4 Taxes

$2.1 net income
$0.5 living expenses

$1.6 in savings

$1.6 in a 5% CD (no risk) would net him $80,000 a year in interest. So basically sigining his first contract would have allowed that kid to never work the rest of his life. Greed works wonders.

That is a good point...Crow and his dad were made aware they were turning down $3.5MM and a chance to join the Nationals, and they left it in the hands of the agents.

Yeah, there seems tobe plenty of blame to go around but the Hendricks brothers did not appear to do this kid any favors.

That being said I could see Crow following in the foot steps of Adam Miller and Homer Bailey and not being as special as their draft hype or radar gun readings would lead you to believe they would be. I realize Miller has had injuries but I don't think he or Bailey will ever live up to the hype that has sorrounded them early in their careers. Crow's secondary stuff was not consistently good (I think his slider is the only other pitch that ever shows as a plus pitch). Between his smaller frame, some scouts concerns about his mechanics, and not great secondary stuff I'm not sure Crow will be all that amazing or won't end being a power reliever.

Crow clearly did not want to pitch in DC. The Nats made a solid offer, and either the agents screwed Crew over, or the kid was greedy. Either way, you've got to think that the Nats dodged a bullet by not signing a guy with that kind of attitude.

Take the #10 pick next year, along with what will hopefully be the #1 overall pick, and go from there.

I'm not a fan of Bowden, and I hope Rizzo is running the show by next year, but the fault for this debacle lies squarely at the Hendricks' and Crow's feet.

What guy wouldn't give his left nut to play professional baseball? Who cares what team it is for.
He had an opportunity never to work a "real" job in his life and he choose roll the dice in hopes of getting a larger contract next year.

You guys make some great points. The Hamilton/Jewish agent thing is alarming; a silent subplot that seems to have been glossed over in the media's rush to deify this former addict as baseball's Prodigal Son returned. While I agree that his is a terrific story of odds defied and demons (hopefully) defeated, Hamilton's anti-Semitism- if, indeed, this was the impetus for his change of representation (it's often difficult to know what's truth and what's fabricated in these days of blog journalism- present case excluded, Tim) is appalling and (again, if true) appallingly underreported. I'm not sure what dismays me more- the subtle hate of Hamilton's intolerance- built for modernity upon ancient lies and evil and packaged for palatability with ribbons of rationalization- or the media's quiet complicity; taking an airbrush to the ugly wart on the 'best story in baseball's golden visage. Surprising? No. Still, it saddens me. If Hamilton were truly seeking redemption, he LOST the forest for the trees; all that religious dogma veiling the simple message that it is love that saves. Somehow Hamilton seems to have missed the point in his spiritual awakening and compounded the issue by making a leap in logic as old as the evil it veils... He assumed that nothing that could do such good as to give a man his life back, could also do harm. Someone should give him a history lesson.

He switched agents not because of anti-semitism, but because he wanted christian agents. He became a christian during his battle with drugs and switched his agent because he wanted to be represented by christian agents. That may not always be the smartest thing, because no matter what my religion is, I want Boras representing me, but I am confident he didn't do it for anti-jewish sentiment.

Milehigh,

You bring the hammer down on Hamilton because of one comment (AA) on a baseball blog. AA didn't give any fact or quotes, only that Hamilton's old agent was jewish. Hamilton has stated in the media he switched agents because he wanted more of a christian influence. That is his decision to make. His motives had nothing to do with hate or intolerance.

Sorry to get all preachy, but that really bothered me and I needed to vent.

As for the Crow situation, like I said...you all have made great points.

I think Crow's biggest mistake was in giving the Hendricks Bros. complete authority to not only negotiate but essentially make a decision that was HIS to make. Frankly, it's NEVER a good idea to fully entrust another with a decision that YOU, yourself, must live with. Council is one thing, but THEY don't share the consequences. The Hendricks' are gambling with a young man's future; sitting down at the poker table with someone else's money- their life savings- and pushing 'all in' with every hand. At a certain point, Crow and his family- if they really wanted to ensure that a deal got done- should have stepped in and said, 'Take the deal.' Jared78 said it best above...there is plenty of blame to go around.

Now Crow faces an uncertain future; one that could still have a happy ending, of course, but one made all the more challenging by the missteps made over the course of this mockery of a negotiation. I think the funniest part of Tim's recap was the final mention that, 'neither agents nor teams seem happy with the idea of a midnight deadline.' HA! So, the organizations and the agents play staring games until the last minute, then complain when they can't work out a deal?! What a crock! They could change it to noon the next day; it wouldn't make a lick of difference. As long as greed defines the course of said discussions- which I think we can agree is not changing anytime soon- they'll follow the same petty path.

Both sides got what they deserved.

This seems to be a case of error on both sides for sure, and you guys have addressed the errors on Crow's end very well already. The thing that gets to me about this is not exactly that Crow didn't sign - there are so many variables with these young pitchers that my eventual wailing and gnashing of teeth over this non-signing is less than 50/50.

What gets to me about this is that the Nationals are no longer a brand new franchise. This is a team that posted its best record in its first season. As soon as the 'rebuilding' began, it's been straight down hill. Jimbo has had three and a half years to get this team pointed in the right direction, and so far it's just not working.

I don't mean to blame it all on Bodes, but he has become a figurehead of what is wrong with our franchise. Certainly the expectations were never to have a winning team in four years, but Bowden has given into the hysteria to win, and arguably has exposed prospects to the bigs before they're ready (Collin Balester comes to mind,) and extending older, effectively worthless players to deals that don't make any sense (Dmitri Young, Ronnie Belliard, Paul Lo Duca.)

His dogged commitment to former Reds, especially Austin Kearns and until recently, Felipe Lopez is also unproductive. Ryan Wagner, too, continues to have a spot on the Nats' Major League Roster, despite being healthy enough to pitch seemingly once every blue moon.

Again, I'm not saying that it's all Jimbo's fault, but this is a team that's going to lose 100 games in its fourth year of 'rebuilding.' The manager change last year was clearly not enough of a catalyst, it's time for something else to give, and arguments for that thing being anyone other than ol' Bodes are getting weaker and weaker.

So that's the end of my polemic. Hooray!

AA,

To an extent, you are right. I did bring the hammer down and I did so as a result of an unsubstantiated blog comment. That is why I, twice, added the caveat: 'if this is true.' (along those lines if not verbatim).

Nevertheless, it did smack of truth, simply because I am aware of Hamilton's faith and its influence upon his life; in particular, his decision to sober up. Perhaps there were multiple reasons for his change in representation, but IF the motivating factor was the faith of the agent- as even you allow- I don't see how you can deny the intolerant subtext...however subtle.

Read between the lines. Again, IF Hamilton switched representation because of the agents' respective faiths, it was a willful act disassociating himself from a familiar, longstanding relationship solely because of a wish to be amongst 'his own.' I'm not saying Hamilton did so with hate in his heart, but I DO think that, however benign it may look, such an act is rooted in the ideology of difference inherent to religious dogma; of separatism and divine superiority. To base a decision of this nature on misappropriated religious fervor would seem, to me, to define intolerance. Is it up there with Nazis and the Holocaust? Of course not, but it is representative of an insidious, modern zeal that I believe has been taken far too lightly and threatens the fundamental virtues of love, brotherhood, and community.

Let's say I'm the IT guy for a company run by an African American family. They treat me real well. Still, I'm all depressed and want to kill myself. So I go to my white doctor and he treats me with Prozac or whatever and I start feeling happy and life's great and all that jazz. Am I going to quit my job and go to a company run by white people just because the guy who saved my life was white?

Granted, that isn't the best metaphor, but I think it appropriately gets to the heart of the issue which is the definition of difference and the actions taken in 'choosing a side.'

Obviously Hamilton is free to choose to be around whomever he chooses, I just wonder if- in all fawning stories and happily-ever-after talk- we're giving fundamentalism a free pass.

This is a huge gamble the kid is making. And the agents messed this thing up royally by starting out with such a highball offer. Granted that an agent would want to start with a high price and negotiate his way down, but that was ludicrous. The record deal is in the 6M range. And those guys are usually Top 5 draft picks. They started out with a number that would have demolished the old record.

Think about it. The Nats will go into 2009 with maybe 2 Top 10 picks. That's not that bad considering what it would have been in year's past. If this kid gets an injury, loses velocity, has ineffectiveness, or whatever, he will never see that amount he was offered. The most the Nats lose is a year on a draft pick.

One thing to think about... baseball prospects are always simply projection at this point. Every pick from the first round or for that matter every pick from the first 10 picks is pretty much a statistical impossibility. So it comes down to this, this could be the only windfall for some of these guys.

Which brings me to my final point that is mostly unconnected... Bowden has been a joke for a few years now. Spend the freaking money already. When he was rumored to be Theo's replacement in Boston, I wasn't the only Red Sox fan who was prepared to run him out of town before he arrived.

"He switched agents not because of anti-semitism, but because he wanted christian agents. He became a christian during his battle with drugs and switched his agent because he wanted to be represented by christian agents."

It is very easy to say that "wanting Christian agents" translates to "fired Matt Sosnick because he is Jewish".

Sosnick is the guy who stood by Hamilton through all his years of addiction and is known as one of the best agents in baseball in the way he thinks about his players and is open and honest about things to everyone. Meanwhile, the guys Hamilton hired pull garbage moves like this.

AA,

I don't pretend to know the inner workings of Josh Hamilton's thoughts or intents. I can only state what I have heard and read in print, which is he wanted agents with a christian influence. How you interpret that as firing Sosnick because he is Jewish is basically setting up a strawman argument. So if Sosnick was a muslim, your rationale would be Hamilton fired him because he was muslim. He didn't fire Sosnick for what he was, he fired him because of what he wasn't. I don't know anything about either agency, but as I said before it wouldn't matter to me what religious affiliation someone is as long as they get me the best deal. However, I recognize there are people who want to be aligned with people who believe the same thing as the person they are representing. That is all Hamilton did. I have seen nothing else to prove is was for any other reason than that.

Oops, my previous statement was supposed to be directed to YankeeSkipper not AA; nevertheless, the content of my argument remains unchanged.

As for YankeeSkipper's assessment that Hamilton switched agents not because of what his former representative was (Jewish) but because of what he wasn't (Christian)...I concede that point (I thought I made that clear)! That doesn't change the deeper subtext of the decision which is that Hamilton wanted to be among 'his own.' Its the same rationale used by separatist racists and bigots of all kinds. Whether or not Hamilton was being outwardly intolerant is beside the point (or at least, beside MY point). Once again, he has further cultivated the already fertile notion of definition-by-difference; an ideology that is INHERENTLY divisive and intolerant. If he WERE tolerant of his former agent's faith, he wouldn't have left a familiar relationship for silver-tongued strangers. The bonds of brotherhood were broken simply- although it seems paradoxical to use that word when discussing matters of faith- because his longtime agent no longer fit Hamilton's newfound moral constructs- based on religious exclusivity. To his mind, the seemingly unrelated spheres of business and faith were no longer unrelated and there was no place for spiritual interlopers at the point of intersect. You make a valid point as to the understandable desire to have one's representative- indeed one's proxy in certain situations- share one's values and it would be both presumptuous and cynical of me to assume that the values shared by Hamilton and the Hendricks Bros. be as tenuous as a common belief in Jesus Christ. Furthermore, values change, just as people do, and Hamilton had every right to change representation in keeping with his shifting ideology. Nevertheless, there's a fine line between one's values and one's spiritual beliefs. In 'aligning with people who believe the same thing' (as he), Hamilton- to my mind- crossed that line. He allowed the divisiveness of religious dogma to DICTATE his values and made his decision thereupon. This is the danger of fundamentalism as a whole: the association of a moral valuation with a choice of faith; backward logic that history tells us again-and-again, is entirely erroneous. Hamilton again, demonstrates it's alive and well and, while it's much tidier to focus on the incredible comeback at the heart of his story, this religious zealotry should not be overlooked or glossed over. From all indications, he chose to make a change based on shared values/morality and equated common values and morality with a common faith. To borrow from your argument- what Hamilton did, tells us NOT what his values ARE...but what they are NOT. Loyalty, tolerance, brotherhood. Count 'em out.

Frankly I dont care why a guy changes agents. Usually it's to get more money (i.e. switch to Boras). Instead this guy switched because of his religious views and now he's being beaten down for that? It's like giving a Jewish kid a hard time if he felt more comfortable at Yeshiva University (5th highest Jewish enrollement) instead of Notre Dame. Ok, maybe thats a little stretch, but I think you know what I mean.

"And these are the same guys Hamilton switched to because his previous agent, one of the best in baseball, was Jewish."

This is an outright lie. The switch was because he had overcome his addictions through his Christian conversion and he wanted agents who shared his faith. It mattered not that the previous agent was Jewish.

Papelboner-

That IS a bit of a stretch, but I DO see your point. Perhaps we can soften the contrast levels to make the metaphor a bit more accurate. Let's say Yeshiva and your average state school (take your pick- we'll call it...State). I would make the same argument here as in the case of Hamilton. If faith and the desire to surround himself with ONLY those whose beliefs echo his own proved the decisive factor for the student's decision, he's demonstrated the same subtle intolerance (dare I say, bigotry?) we've seen on Hamilton's part. The problem with your example- from my point of view- is that it ignores a social dynamic that I imagine would arise from being a minority surrounded by those who might not tolerate YOU (as a Jewish kid amongst a largely Christian populace at State). However, if we ignore this and assume the student's decision was SOLELY a matter of faith, then yes...he's just as bad. It's not a matter of which faith is right or wrong...quite the contrary; my point is that this kind of thinking is at the root of the problem.

You can swap out religions however you like. If the end result is self-imposed separatism and exclusionary segregation motivated by judgment/value calls, themselves informed by faith, then I would argue there is an inherent- if subtle- sense of intolerance at the heart of the matter.

You call it being comfortable, but comfort is more a matter of the aforementioned social dynamic, which we've already ruled out. Hamilton would not have been in an uncomfortable position- this was a familiar he'd been with for some time and it is doubtful that he'd ever be in a position where the issue of faith would ever arise! If that were the case, I would have no problem with his decision. If Hamilton were being asked to parade around in a yarmulke in a commercial to target Jewish consumers, or forced to attend Temple in order to get a face-to-face with his agent... But that hardly seems realistic. This wasn't about comfort- not really. It was a decision that- IF this story is true- implies an insidious prejudice as subtle as it is powerful; one predicated upon a desire to NOT engage in business with an 'other' and to surround himself with ONLY those whose beliefs he shared.

That may be his prerogative, but that doesn't make it any less distasteful.

Iron Nat-

'This is an outright lie. The switch was because he had overcome his addictions through his Christian conversion and he wanted agents who shared his faith. It mattered not that the previous agent was Jewish.'

That's the point. I'll concede that I used the wrong word when I threw out anti-Semite. He's just a bigot.

See above for my rationale. I'll add this though... Life ain't black and white. Religious zealots have long used the rationale that, 'if it can lead to salvation, it must be entirely good.' Of course, that isn't true. Time and time again, history has shown that something wonderful and positive can be corrupted as wielded for evil. That Hamilton's Christianity led him out of the permanent midnight of addiction has no bearing on the intolerance it has, apparently, bred in him.

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