MLBTR Chat Transcript

Tim was wrong at the beginning of this chat in regards to the Mariners and dealing Washburn.

First, the Mariners are in a great position to trade Washburn to the Yankees or any other team in the AL, but the Yankees would be my first pick as the Rockies would be harder to get to on waivers.

The team with the worst record, within the same league (AL or NL) has the first chance to claim anyone placed on waivers in that respective league.

This means that anybody the Yankees place out there would automatically go to Seattle if they released the player.

For example Washburn would probably make it to New York, as I don't see any of the AL Central or AL West teams biting on his deal, then you throw in the Jays with an awesome staff and the cost conscious Orioles are the only teams standing in NY's way, it seems reasonable.

On the backside, the Mariners could technically get Mariano Rivera, Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, or Ian Kennedy through waivers as they have the worst record in the AL. No these guys wouldn't be coming to Seattle, but my point is that EVERYBODY would want to put a claim in on these guys, so it means not just certain people can slide through.

It really wasn't that hard to make that connection, especially with the way you've been bashing Seattle on here since they haven't won65 games by now. I also love how nobody has meantioned that Seattle has dealt with more injuries than any other team to their core of players, but either way, you (or your staff) have taken shots at the Mariners being horrible all year and it should be expected that you know they have the worst record in the AL and could get anything past to them that the other teams want to give up.

My pick is Washburn for Brett Gardner. If Jarrod throws well in his next start, this deal is done within 48 hours, if he pitches okay, they'll wait for another start, if he pitches badly, it's over, no deal.

You make some good points. But the "you've been bashing Seattle on here" comment seems to be directed at...me? No one? Who are you talking to with that?

Additionally, I could see the Rangers or Tigers considering a claim on Washburn.

1) Your writers on here, not you because I can tell by the writing style, tend to take a very cynical view of the Mariners and if this was almost any other team, they would be bringing up the injuries which have been ridiculous.

* Felix, 3 weeks because of Carlos Beltran
* Bedard, 6 weeks will total 10 weeks before he pitches again
* Beltre, torn tendon in his thumb for 12 weeks
* Ichiro, pulled hamstring for 4 weeks
* Putz, 6-8 weeks, been hiding injuries when on the mound, costing games
* Batista, back spasms for most of the season
* Morrow, 3 weeks arm fatigue and a week for back spasms
* Rhodes, 3 weeks arm fatigue
* Lowe, major surgery, 3 mos. almost no back-to-back days w/ lower velocity

There has been a lot of talk about Seattle's collapse as a team from where they were expected to be at, yet nobody takes time to meantion not only the number of injuries, but the length of them, to guys that NEVER get injured (i.e. Ichiro, Putz, Beltre, Felix).

Bottom line is that it's clear from reading this site that Seattle is in the basement, considering we are talking about players really and not teams, it shouldn't be THAT obvious what the standings are by reading about a trade or acquisition.

Yeah the Rangers and Tigers could, depends on whether Detroit feels they can compete. As for Texas, I think Seattle would get one of their prospects if possible, but would probably dump his contract on them, just to be a jerk, especially with the way Seattle pounds lefties this season!

If you're talking injuries, at least you've gotten 100+ games out of 5 starters. The Nationals have only gotten 100+ games out of 2 starters, 1 of whom was cut last week (Felipe Lopez). Neither team would sniff competition with everyone healthy. Remember, even when everyone's healthy, Jose Vidro is still your DH. Why wouldn't people be cynical toward that?

First off, I'm a Mariiners fan. We have had a lot of injuries to key players this year, which has definitely hurt the team. But the line of reasoning that most people take is flawed. They look at our 88 wins last year, and we add Erik Bedard and Carlos Silva, so why shouldn't we be a playoff contender? The facts are that our win total outperformed what simple metrics such as runs scored against runs allowed would say. We were actually an 80 win team last year. So we never should have been considered a playoff contender for this year, but we can see from our awful record that injuried have had a big role.

Did you factor in trading Bedard for Weaver in the rotation? That's good for 10 wins right there. The improved play of a 24 year old 2B, the call up of the brightest catching prospect in baseball, the improvement of Silva over Ramirez which should net you about 3 wins, the added development of Morrow as a setup man, the lack of injury to Sexson for half a season, the injury for 1/4 of a season to Lackey, which should've gained an extra game for Seattle if not two, then include the fact that Santana and Saunders will NEVER have years like this again and are pitching way above their level of ability so far?! Okay maybe not above their ability, but nobody picked them to shave 1+ runs off their career ERA or even last years total. How about Hamilton playing like a HOF?! These things have all contributed to the losses. Then factor in that Seattle has faced Duscherer, Grienke, Lee, etc. when they were all unhittable, now they are very hittable and have seen their ERAs go north by a large margin since playing Seattle. There were many things that led to this season, all things being equal, they should've been in line for 90 wins this year atleast and in the AL West, it should've won them the division.

Sorry accidently typed over, the joys of using a laptop, I meant Duchscherer, he's still got a 2.33 ERA but since Seattle faced him, he's seen his ERA go up .50 in 4 starts. I'm sure for as well as he pitched to start the season, he'll be equally as average or worse the rest of the way and see his ERA finish off in the mid 3.00 range, which is terribly considering where he was near the end of July... But these are the things that Seattle has struggled with!

How was Kerry Wood not mentioned in the Comeback POY talks???

"Guru" you just sound like a bitter Seattle homer at this point. These diatribes wipe out the good posts you make from time to time.

Saunders and Santana never pitching this well again? Saunders was a 1st round pick who spent the last 2 years blocked and still managed an excellent W/L record in the majors when called upon. Further, last year's ERA was bloated by just 3 poor performances in all his starts. Meanwhile, Santana has been projected as a future ace for quite some time, and has all the stuff in the world to do it. Last year was the outlier year, not this year.

Meanwhile, the house of cards Bavasi built in the off season was bound to fail at the beginning of the year. Bedard is injury-prone and just not as good as advertised, while the Silva contract was just plain ill-advised. Meanwhile, the only true offensive threats the M's have are Ichiro and Ibanez.

Ervin Santana's peripherals support his performance this year. Joe Saunder's do not -- he's the same guy as last year.

The Mariners did not have 88 win talent last year; they were an 81 win team. Swapping Weaver for Bedard is not worth 10 wins -- more like 6. Silva wastes some of that. The drop from Jose Guillen to the right field hole really hurt. Vidro and Sexson and Yuniesky played even worse than last year. They lost George Sherrill. They used Morrow in relief instead of starting. Even if Putz wasn't injured he would have regressed somewhat.

Injuries hurt the Mariners this year. But what hurt way more was lack of intelligence by Bill Bavasi and expectations that were too high based on 2007.

This line of argument could be used by any team that's failed to meet expectations. "All of our key players were hurt", "some of our young players didn't develop like we thought they would", "our division rivals are playing better than we thought they were", etc.

The reason the Mariners are featured so prominently in trade discussions is precisely because of these factors. If they're not going to win this year, it's time to look next year, and with the Mariners' current roster it looks like they might have some catching up to do with Oakland and LA, maybe even Texas. Why not better position the team to do just that by getting rid of guys like Washburn who are easily replaced?

Anyways, it's always the small market and underperforming teams that sell off their higher-priced talent, particularly around this time of year. No one's bagging the M's; they just happen to have a number of players that are perhaps better off elsewhere.

True enough JRog, but it seems to be that because a couple of the guys have been horrible, it's been a mostly Seattle sucks mindset.

As for AA, you coming at me to defend your team doesn't make you look like a "homer" whatever the hell that is, besides the stupidest damn insult you could use. The only homer that comes to mind is only one of the greatest philosophers of all-time (meaning lots of years), so thanks for that as I'll choose to use that as what you were comparing me to!

As far as Santana, project in one hand sh*t in the other, tell me which one fills up quicker! Santana was projected as an ace when he hung out last year at AAA because of being erratic, he was projected the year before when he was posting a 5.00 ERA. So to tell me this was expected, well yeah, tell me you expect Ian Kennedy to waltz into the rotation and tear it up at the big league level for the last two months of the season based on what he's done at this level, not AAA.

The Mariners have had a lot of bad luck as to when they ran into certain pitchers. I'm not saying there wasn't holes left, but to tell me that the difference in Balentien and Guillen was going to be enough to overcome replacing two horrible starters with an ace and a #3 or #4?! No way.

Sky, you do realize your "Silva offsets what Bedard would give you" comment is about a guy that is still pitching 1.30+ runs per 9 IP lower than Ramirez's 7.20 that was posted last year, right?! That's not to say Silva's been great, but on the other hand he's been better than Ramirez, which still has to figure to be a +1 or +2 minimum. Weaver finished just shy of 7.00 for an ERA, which means that Bedard gave up less than half the runs, so yeah, I'll stick with my 10 win notion. We aren't talking your normal upgrade, we are talking about replacing the TWO WORST pitchers in baseball last year with the 3rd lowest ERA pitcher in the AL and a guy that was a #3 going into the offseason, Silva's pitched like crap, but to access where we were at last year, Silva is still an upgrade over either!

So we digress, I think that the bottom line about Washburn is that the Yankees will get him in all likelihood because as much as NYY fans will bitch about the swap... Are you really going to let a AAA and maybe only a AAAA outfielder like Brett Gardner stand in the way of the deal?! Not if your name is Steinbrenner or Cashman. I mean maybe Washburn doesn't make a difference, but I don't think they have a lot of time to figure that out with their position in the playoffs slowly evaporating!

Again, I started at 80 wins and threw on 10, you are saying 81, so I need 90 for my statement to be accurate?! Okay, fine you win. Either way, Silva, Bedard, a healthy Sexson, an improved Morrow and Lopez, should have all cancelled out the loss of Guillen, especially if Wilkerson just played close to his career average. Either way, figuring last year they were a 81 win team, they did enough and developed enough to be a 90+ win team and the Angels are four or five games above what their win/loss total should be...

Mariners

Record 43-69
Expected Record 49-63

Angels

Record 70-42
Expected Record 61-51

Who's the house of cards looking to get knocked over now?! Sounds like Anaheim's play a little over their head and I'd be surprised if they don't win more than 15-18 games the rest of the way and crawl in on their bellies to the playoffs.

90 = 9 for it to be accurate.

You do realize that only the Angels rival the Mariners for the number of bad contracts currently on payroll in the majors?! Just thought I would throw that out there.

Garrett Anderson (13MM a year talent?! Not no more)

Torii Hunter (definitely not producing 18MM a year statistically)

Kelvim Escobar (11MM to not pitch?! Hmmm.)

Gary Matthews Jr. (11MM a year to hit .240s?! Yikes, hello Sexson, plus three years)

Vlad Guerrero is your only big dollar player that's even earning his money this year.

Don't bring up Teixeira, he's been an Angel for a week and came from the two best hitting ball parks in the country (ATL and TEX), slanted numbers don't even begin to describe his career. Good player yes, good contract, let's see now that he plays in a pitchers park during home games for once.

Two best hitter's parks in the country? Ok, I'll give you Texas, but there's no way in hell that Turner Field is a better "hitter's park" than Cincy or Philly. The M's had a shot to be decent, but they were put together by a terrible GM and they fell apart. I can understand why my team is doing bad right now, why can't you?

Understand why they are losing and saying that they are horrible and need to rebuild is TWO TOTALLY DIFFERENT THINGS!! Seattle is still only a couple pieces away from contending, especially with Sexson and Vidro gone, that alone is addition by subtraction!

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

Arlington #3, Atlanta #4, any more questions?!

Philly is #14 and Cincy is #21, perception means jack compared to hard numbers, check the site, it's ESPN, not some mom and pop morons who post whatever stat line they like. ESPN if nothing else has their image to protect, so I'm goign to take it at face value... Please research before you chime in and start telling me how "there's no way in hell that Turner Field is a better hitters park than..." just flat out makes you look ignorant. I can tell you aren't stupid, but I'm having a hard time not throwing around the label of lazy.

ESPN's park factors are pretty bad...I switched over to the Bill James Handbook several years ago when doing fantasy projections.

As for MLBTR writers with an anti-Seattle bias, you will have to give me examples on that. But I will say that injuries to Bedard, Lowe, and Rhodes were to be expected coming into the season. And other teams have experienced worse injuries and come out OK. The Mariners haven't had a surprise TJ or torn ACL. Just normal course of business stuff.

Ichiro has NEVER been injured for him to not steal a base for a month because of his hamstring, definitely hurts the productivity of the team. Putz has NEVER been injured, to lose your closer for almost two months of the season?! Seriously?! Come on, I'll give you Bedard, Lowe, and Rhodes, but the rest of the team was not forseen. Also I can't think of one team that has had to endure injuries to that extent, then add into it the 5 players (Sexson, Vidro, Johjima, Wilkerson, and Ichiro) all hitting below their career average by 50-100 points, I'm sorry, but you put it all together and it's a team that should've won 90 games that is having the Bad News Bears type season. They are good enough that they might be able to be the 1st(??) to go from MLB basement to MLB WS winner in one year depending on who the sign in the offseason. If they add Tex and Sheets, this team is pretty much a playoff team from the get(-go) regardless of injuries.

I'll get you examples, going to work shortly, probably be this weekend, but I'll post in this thread so look for maybe Sundayish if you want to follow up, I've made my point though, so I'll just give you the information to run with.

Washburn stays in Seattle for another start. He didn't "wow" anybody with his 6 inning qualty start, but he pitched very solid today! I'd say if Washburn has another 3 ERs in 6+ IP or better performance in his next start, he'll be a Yankee within 7-8 days from now! Wash has already shown today that he can bounce back still from a bad game.

Perhaps others have already tuned out on this "debate", thinking there's no point. But Guru, you accuse other posters of being "lazy" when you're even more guilty of making these wild claims when the evidence suggests otherwise. And besides, the tenor of your argument is sounding more and more like the grating of fingernails on a chalkboard.

Essentially, now you're saying that IF your team can add two marquee players this offseason, you could potentially win it all? No kidding -- most of the baseball world is only a cleanup hitter and an ace starter away from winning a World Series title!

Anyways, let's look at the production the M's have gotten from some of the players you identify and see if your expectations were in sync with reality.

First up, Richie Sexson. In 2005, he homered every 14.31 ABs. 2006, 17.38. 2007, 20.67. (Oh look, no trend here!) 2008, 22.91. Notice his power dropped off more dramatically from 2006-07 than from last yr to this year. No way anyone would've seen a bad year coming!

But that's not all. Let's look at his OPS+. Here they are, 2005-2008(M's only): 144, 117, 84, 89. By this measure, he's actually improved a little bit from last year!

Finally, runs created/game, 2005-2008. 7.0, 5.7, 3.8, 4.0. Again, looks like 2008 wasn't quite bottoming out after all.

So looks like Sexson's poor performance year a) should have been anticipated, and/or b) actually isn't as bad as last year!

Next up, Ichiro and the stolen base issue. Yes, his hamstrings were tender for a month. But are his steals down?

Here are his plate appearances per stolen base, 2005-2008: 22.39, 16.71, 19.89, 14.89. He is actually stealing bases at his quickest rate since his rookie year in 2001! (If you prefer ABs per SB, same thing: 20.58, 15.44, 18.32, 13.40).

Next up, Brad Wilkerson. According to Guru, we should've expected Brad to be a big contributor this year. OPS+ shows (2005-2008, M's only) 103, 86, 104, 80. Keep in mind that the 80 reflects *56* ABs before he was shipped out of Seattle. But it appears as if, at best, Wilkerson could be counted on to perform close to the league average. We don't know how he might've performed over the long haul had he remained with the M's, but suffice to say that Wilkerson is *not* the reason the Mariners' season has tanked.

Let's look at the starting pitching staff now. Before today, the Mariners played 113 games, and Hernandez, Washburn, Bedard, Batista and Silva accounted for 99 of the starts. Baek pitched poorly in his lone start back on 4/13. Rowland-Smith gave up 3 ER in 3.2 IP on 7/1, and much better on 7/6 (5 IP, 1 ER).

Dickey is responsible for the 11 remaining starts, and compiled the following stats:

IP K ERA WHIP
Dickey 56.7 27 5.56 1.73
Silva 130.7 56 5.92 1.50
Batista 94 59 6.80 1.95

Dickey is no worse than these other two guys who are stinkin' up the joint and combined have started 42 of the Mariners' games.

(Two years ago, Silva's ERA and WHIP were 5.94 and 1.54, respectively. In the nine years in which Batista has pitched 100+ innings, his WHIP has been under 1.5 only three times, most recently in 2003.)

I obviously have way too much free time on my hands, but Guru, you've got to admit that freak injuries and slumps aren't responsible for the Mariners' disappointing performance this year.

It looks as though Bavasi and co. overlooked the bad and put their faith in Silva et al. coming through with their best performances this year. It hasn't happened, and it's not because Duke is pitching his brains out or Saunders is getting lucky. Crappy personnel decisions give you crappy players, and crappy players give you crappy performances (usually).

You should be upset at how your team's done this year, but there are countless examples of teams that HAVE done well in spite of injuries and ill-timed off-years. But your anger is misplaced, and I'd suggest you take a closer look at the evidence before you go spouting off claims that can't be substantiated.