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« Offseason Outlook: Seattle Mariners | Main | Elias Rankings Updated »
Free Agent OBP Leaders
Many teams will be looking to add OBP-oriented players this winter. The below chart ranks free agents by on-base percentage (.340 and above is considered solid). I also included BB%, the percentage of plate appearances in which the hitter drew a walk. This helps identify those whose OBPs may be deceiving because of reliance on batting average (Hairston's .338/.388/.475 line is an example).
| Player | OBP | BB% |
| Milton Bradley | 0.445 | 16.6% |
| Manny Ramirez | 0.424 | 12.7% |
| Mark Teixeira | 0.409 | 14.3% |
| Brian Giles | 0.393 | 13.0% |
| Adam Dunn | 0.390 | 19.0% |
| Jerry Hairston Jr. | 0.388 | 6.9% |
| Jason Giambi | 0.376 | 13.9% |
| Ray Durham | 0.375 | 12.2% |
| Pat Burrell | 0.375 | 16.1% |
| Bobby Abreu | 0.374 | 10.2% |
| Ramon Vazquez | 0.372 | 10.9% |
| Raul Ibanez | 0.370 | 9.5% |
| Orlando Hudson | 0.367 | 8.8% |
| Doug Mientkiewicz | 0.367 | 12.5% |
| Fernando Tatis | 0.363 | 8.9% |
| Jamey Carroll | 0.356 | 9.5% |
| Cliff Floyd | 0.356 | 11.1% |
| Casey Blake | 0.355 | 8.2% |
| David Eckstein | 0.355 | 7.8% |
| Ken Griffey Jr. | 0.354 | 13.9% |
| Frank Thomas | 0.349 | 13.5% |
| Mark Grudzielanek | 0.345 | 5.3% |
| Nick Punto | 0.343 | 7.7% |
| Mark Kotsay | 0.343 | 7.4% |
Giambi and Bradley may hold strong appeal as players who can help a team's OBP but may not require long-term commitments. Vazquez and Tatis are a couple of interesting sleepers. Are they one-year wonders?
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Laugh if you must, but I can really see the Sox adding Dunn to their lineup. They most certainly will be moving Crisp this off season. Dunn can share time in the outfield and at first base allowing for the Sox to play any 6 or Lowell, Youkilis, Ortiz, Bay, Ellsbury, Drew & Dunn at one time.
Posted by: PeteOverBondsHOF | September 02, 2008 at 12:29 PM
Why is a batting average heavy OBP deceiving? I guess it could be if you've got a career .280 hitter batting .330, but that kinda stuff can swing both ways. If you care about walk rate, then just look at walk rate.
A walk is nice, but I'd take a single over a walk any day. Sure, a walk vs a single gives the player equal odds of scoring, but the team is better off with a single. It's pretty damn hard for someone to go first to third or score from second on a walk. A runner on third will almost always score on a single, but a walk only drives in the run if the bases are loaded.
Posted by: yanksfan | September 02, 2008 at 01:02 PM
the comparison here is not a single to a walk when there are runners on base. the point i see him making here is the ability of the player to give them a chance to produce runs. a walk does not equal a single when a player is on base, but if a player is producing a higher obp because of walks...than he is assisting in the ability of the team to manufacture a run.
Posted by: cycub | September 02, 2008 at 01:29 PM
Walk rate is more repeatable and less luck-based.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | September 02, 2008 at 01:34 PM
Tim, I am curious about Jim Thome now that we are bringing this up. I know that he has an incentive based option (plate appearances, I believe). How close is he (if not already) to that option being exercised. And if it's not, why isn't he on the list.
Posted by: ChiSox33 | September 02, 2008 at 01:53 PM
Thome needs just 64 plate appearances this month. 16-17 games should do it...
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | September 02, 2008 at 03:05 PM
Hey Tim how come Alex Rodrdiguez isnt on the list? Does he not have enough AB's to qualify?
Posted by: YankeeFan4life | September 02, 2008 at 03:31 PM
YankeeFan:
Thome needs 64 plate appearances to have his option exercised. If Thome doesn't get 64, he would become a free agent after the season. That's why he might be on the list. A-Rod just signed a huge deal and won't be a free agent or have the option to be a free agent for another 9 years.
Posted by: ChiSox33 | September 02, 2008 at 04:09 PM
"but if a player is producing a higher obp because of walks...than he is assisting in the ability of the team to manufacture a run."
Except, of course, if the guy who takes the walks is less likely to come around to score because of his ability to run.
"Walk rate is more repeatable and less luck-based."
Huge argument about that. Walk rate is not just based on the eye of the player, it is based on the judgment of the umpire. That is far more "luck" based than a player's ability to get a bloop to drop. Also, it takes far more ability to consistently hit a ball for average year after year (read Albert Pujols and Tony Gwynn) than it is to simply look at bad pitches.
Posted by: AA | September 02, 2008 at 05:44 PM
i agree to a point AA. with the case we're discussing, adam dunn has proven year after year that he will get on base (and i am speaking to the umpire as an adjustment in luck). You know with Dunn you are getting a guy who will get on base about 5-6 more times per 100 plate appearance than the rest of the league. Maybe i'm a minority, but i think he's a heck of a valuable player.
Posted by: cycub | September 02, 2008 at 08:49 PM
I'm too lazy to do the research, but I think if you'd tabulated the year-to-year fluctuations for individual players, batting average would vary much more than walk rate. That is all I am trying to say, I am not making subjective assessments of difficulty.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | September 02, 2008 at 09:45 PM
No need to do the research Tim, BP has already done it. From a good article found at http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2579 :
"With that being said, of these metrics, batting average has the least consistency, and thus the least predictive ability."
Posted by: Slayer | September 02, 2008 at 11:02 PM
""Walk rate is more repeatable and less luck-based."
Huge argument about that. Walk rate is not just based on the eye of the player, it is based on the judgment of the umpire. That is far more "luck" based than a player's ability to get a bloop to drop. Also, it takes far more ability to consistently hit a ball for average year after year (read Albert Pujols and Tony Gwynn) than it is to simply look at bad pitches. "
AA, I'm sorry but you're simply wrong.
You've accounted for an umpire's natural bias in one direction but not in the other. While Umpire A might be more apt to stretch the zone, thus allowing a higher walk rate, Umpire B is apt to squeeze the zone, thus accounting for a lower walk rate, higher strikeout rate and decreased batting average. When using umpire judgment, it's important to realize that these are all variables that tend to regress to their mean.
The fluctuation in walk rate seldom is affected significantly enough by umpire judgment to be considered statistically irrelevant.
To further elaborate on a true statistical dichotomy, you'd need to look at the natural bias as it affects not only the umpire behind the plate, but the pitcher on the mound. Simply put, in addition to umpires having different strike zones, umpires often have different strike zones for different pitchers.
The umpire bias will regress to the mean, as stated above. Using that as an excuse is impossible because in any statistical equation, there will be confounding variables and a natural bias.
A walk rate is significantly more translatable than say a batting average.
Posted by: usctrojans31 | September 03, 2008 at 12:29 AM
"with the case we're discussing, adam dunn has proven year after year that he will get on base (and i am speaking to the umpire as an adjustment in luck). You know with Dunn you are getting a guy who will get on base about 5-6 more times per 100 plate appearance than the rest of the league. Maybe i'm a minority, but i think he's a heck of a valuable player."
He also doesn't drive in nearly the number of runs that a player with a higher BA would have.
"You've accounted for an umpire's natural bias in one direction but not in the other. While Umpire A might be more apt to stretch the zone, thus allowing a higher walk rate, Umpire B is apt to squeeze the zone, thus accounting for a lower walk rate, higher strikeout rate and decreased batting average."
You seem to have ignored something there as well. With that umpire with the larger strike zone, a player who hits for a high average is more likely to get on base than one who looks at a lot of balls and strikes.
"A walk rate is significantly more translatable than say a batting average."
So, effectively, you are saying that the numbers of Albert Pujols, Tony Gwynn, Mike Piazza and Ichiro Suzuki are more luck than skill? That is ridiculous, even for someone from USC.
Posted by: AA | September 03, 2008 at 01:42 AM
Chisox33- O yea i forgot it was free agents.
Posted by: YankeeFan4life | September 03, 2008 at 10:13 AM