Offseason Outlook: Seattle Mariners

Wow the Orioles did the ultimate sell high on Bedard. If I was Seattle I would try to trade Beltre, Washburn, Bedard, and Silva too probably. I know they won't net much but they really need to cut thier losses and get ready for '09 where they will be huge players in the Free Agent market and i could see them just "rebuilding" with cash if you couple this with good drafts and prospects they already have they could be ready to go in '10 and I know it hurts to hear the "We are excited about the direction our team is headed." after a sub .500 season speach but the Mariners have a lot of young talent already I think they are set up nicely to be back to thier winning ways in a year or two.

On a seperate note I know that Ms fans will all disagree with me on this and I actually like the Mariners a lot but they might need to consider trading Ichiro. He could bring an amazing return.

What exactly are you expecting for Ichiro?

Overpaid, aging RFers fetch what?

Is there any way on future Offseason Outpost post you can put how many years the club has each player under control? You have to look at more than just next year when talking about potential offseason moves.

The Mariners do need a fire sale of their veteran talent (cough cough). I wouldn't count on any A-list prospects in return for anyone, including Ichiro. Not to mention that they will not be able to just dump salary and must plan to take on some of the responsibility for their irresponsible contracts.

baseballismylyf4: Question. How much and how many years would you give King Felix maximum? I ask because Felix will be 25 when hitting FA, and if he can stay healthy and perform well, he could easily get a record contract.

Not sure on locking up Bedard for too long. I would give him 3 years, that's all. But you're right, he needs to either be locked up this offseason or not at all.

I could see ichiro in a sox jersey...I'd say move clay, bailey(I'd like to see him stick around or moved for something good atleast) coco or another prospect or 2 for ichiro...then eat some of the drew contract and trade him for middle relief help, another young gun, for a catching prospect. How about to texas where they have plenty of catchers? Or to sf for one of their many great arms...manny options in general and prob diff opinions too but whatever.
dh papi
c vtek
1b youk/bailey
2b petey/cora
3b lowell/lowrie
ss lowrie/cora....maybe acquiring another young'n to help out
lf bay
cf jacobey/ichiro/crisp?
rf ichiro/bailey

I think the youthful revival w/ clay, bailey/crisp and whomever else they could nab could/would help

And another thing. The bulk of Seattle's talent is in the low minors. The next wave of prospects isn't going to come until 2010+ since they are all 18-21 (Triunfel, Aumont, Halman, Pineda, Martinez, Ramirez, etc).

The Mariners should scrap 2009 and prepare for the years beyond when they will actually have the talent to compete. Locking up Felix Hernandez for a 5 year deal should be priority number one.

Tim,

I have to question how you decide what team to write about... I mean the Giants and Seattle! How about teams who actually have a chance to go to the playoffs and win in the playoffs next year. I love the Offseason Outlook idea though!

Silva and Batista will require money going to the teams acquiring them. As we saw with Washburn and the waiver wire - he was claimed. Teams were willing to take on his salary. The argument was over the caliber of player(s) coming back. Don't know why the off-season would be any different.

Kenji is interesting. He has been downright awful this year. However, in the previous 2 years his performance is relatively close to his pay. I would think that if he started out playing well in 09 you could flip him for salary relief.

This question was asked earlier, but I haven't been at a computer. It had to do with Felix, and how long I'd lock him up for. I think if we lock him up long term, we could save 50% on what it would take to lock him up long term once he makes a splash in the free agent market. His talent, potential, and ceiling are out of this world. I honestly don't know how long I would lock him up for, but I'd do it now, and I wouldn't say 5 years at max, I'd go higher...

Thoughts?

I would give Felix a 5 year deal with options for a few more years. Thing is.. I really think he wants to go year to year. I think if he was willing to do a long term deal, it would have been done by now.

I just find it nuts that these young pitchers are willing to go year to year (Lincecum, Hamels, etc). When they have most likely a $30-$50 million dollar deal staring them in the face, they can turn it down for that potential $100 million dollar deal 4-6 years down the road. Thing is, a ton of things can happen in that time period. Get hurt a few times and those 8 figure deals are long gone.

I really think Felix wants to be a free agent at 25. I think the guy is awesome but he likes the big stage. He isn't getting that with Seattle so far. I see Felix being our next version of ARod that bolts when his time comes.

I think the M's need to punt in 2009. The goal should be acquiring talent, and the main questions involve maximizing the value of the various veterans the M's should be looking to move.

I would look to trade Ichiro, Putz, Beltre, Washburn, and Betancourt immediately. Ichiro in particular would net the M's some quality young players. With Putz, it would depend on how other clubs value him. I would view him as an elite closer, irregardless of his 2008 struggles. If other teams don't value him similarly, the M's can always hold off and move him mid-season. He is signed through the next two years for a very reasonable price, so they can afford to wait until his value goes up.

The lack of quailty players at SS and 3B could make Beltre and Betancourt very enticing for other clubs. I would move Betancourt immediately, as his percieved value seems to outweigh his actual value right now. With Beltre, I would ask for a lot, and hold on to him if they don't get it. I think he is a candidate to have a huge season next year, and the M's could always deal him at the deadline or collect some draft picks when he leaves.

Guys like Batista and Johjima both have very little value right now, but both are far better than their 2008 numbers would suggest. If Batista has a decent first half, he could be a good trade chip at the deadline. Teams are always looking for servicable arms, and his contract isn't stupid. Johjima's contract is more of an issue, but I still think his 2006 and 2007 numbers are more indicative of his talent than 2008. He has gotten really unlucky. I would have Clement and Johjima split C and DH for the start of the season, then look to move Johjima when he re-establishes a bit of value. They have little to lose in this case.

Finally, the M's need to be patient with Bedard. Trading him in the offseason is a terrible idea. There are lots of good pitchers hitting free agency, and his value is as low as it can get right now. The M's should just sit tight and hope for a strong performance in his walk year. When he is healthy, he is a great pitcher. He could easily be the best starter available at the trade deadline next year. The M's need to let him re-establish his value before moving him.

Other comments above mentioned how many bad contracts. But a lot of those contracts are coming off the books in the next few years. Richie Sexson, Jose Vidro, and Raul Ibanez come off the books this year. Miguel Batista, Jarrod Washburn, Adrian Beltre, and Eric Bedard are free agents after next year. After 2009, the only bad contracts the M's will be left with are Carlos Silva and Kenji Johjima. Both are better players than their 2008 numbers would suggest. With the M's financial resources, those two bad contracts won't kill them. They just need to punt in 2009, trade guys who can get them some young talent back, dump salaries when they can, and invest in cheap, short-term contracts for players with a bit of upside. If they play their cards right, they could build a strong club for 2010.

"I would look to trade Ichiro, Putz, Beltre, Washburn, and Betancourt immediately. Ichiro in particular would net the M's some quality young players."

Trading Ichiro would be an economic nightmare for that team, and isn't going to happen with Japanese ownership. The only way he goes is if he tells them to trade him. Further, it is nearly impossible to replicate his skill set.

Also, I don't think Felix will agree to more than 5 years. He'll be 27 when the deal ends, and he still has the shot at the record FA contract. 7-8 years and he's jeopardizing FA possibilities, especially if he gets hurt and because of the amount of "miles" that arm would have logged by then.