Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres

Your 2009 San Diego Padres:

C – Josh Bard – $2.2375MM+
C – Nick Hundley – $400K
1B – Adrian Gonzalez – $3MM
2B – Matt Antonelli – $400K
SS – Khalil Greene – $6.5MM
3B – Kevin Kouzmanoff – $410K
IF – Edgar Gonzalez – $400K
IF – Brian Myrow – $400K
LF – Chase Headley – $400K
CF – Jody Gerut – $700K+
RF – Brian Giles – $9MM or $3MM buyout
OF – Scott Hairston – $406K+
OF – Will Venable – $400K

SP – Jake Peavy – $11MM
SP – Chris Young – $4.5MM
SP – Cha Seung Baek – $400K
SP – Josh Banks – $400K
SP – Wade LeBlanc – $400K

RP – Heath Bell – $420K+
RP – Cla Meredith – $415K
RP – Clay Hensley – $410K+
RP – Justin Hampson – $403K
RP – Joe Thatcher – $400K
RP – Mike Adams – $400K
RP – Kevin Cameron – $400K

That’s $44.2MM committed, plus arbitration raises for Bard, Gerut, Hairston, and Hensley.  Maybe that’ll bring commitments to around $49MM.  This estimate includes them retaining Giles at $9MM.

ESPN’s Buster Olney says the Padres want to be in the $50MM payroll range for ’09, and Giles’ option will probably be declined.  The Padres could exercise his option and try to trade him, but Giles has 10-and-5 rights.

Olney also says the Padres will talk to Trevor Hoffman soon about a contract for ’09.  They might agree on $5MM or so, but then the Padres wouldn’t have room in the budget for Giles.

It’ll be a shame if the Padres slash payroll next year.  They were at $73.7MM in ’08; $20MM could buy a quality free agent or two for the rotation or infield.  2009 provides a nice window to field a competitive team in a weak division.  The salaries of Gonzalez, Kouzmanoff, Gerut, Peavy, Young, and Bell jump another $12MM or so in 2010.

If the Padres are so cost-conscious that they must discard an effective hitter like Giles, it may make sense to go all-in and sell off the young veterans too.  Gonzalez and Peavy are currently at peak value given their salaries, age, and performance.  Kouzmanoff and Young also have good trade value, though Greene is at a low point.

Note: two changes were made from the original post – information about Giles’ no-trade rights was added and Peavy’s ’09 salary was corrected.

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