Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres

gotta love the padres, for the exception of this year, they find a way to win even by paying players next to nothing. ive never seen a team payroll with so many "k's" instead of "Mil's" on the end

Tom, what would it take to get Peavy in Milwaukee?

what would it take to get Peavy in Milwaukee?
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A plane and two armed gunmen. Outside of that....

CarpeDiem: Ryan Braun?

Matt Gamel + JJ Hardy + even more perhaps.

I wouldn't do it.

Analyzing the Padres is always my favorite thing to do on MLBTR.

If the brass at Petco had the desire for a full-fledged fire sale, the Hot Stove season would burn up this fall.

Jake Peavy, Adrian Gonzalez, Chris Young and Heath Bell would put San Diego front and center in the trade market. This is all far-fetched, of course, but these kind of trades could still keep them a contender in '09; ala the '06 Marlins.

The Yankees could go after Peavy, using Robinson Cano & Phil Hughes.

The Rangers (ironically) could go after Adrian Gonzalez, using Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

The Braves could go after Chris Young, using Jordan Schaefer.

Heath Bell is a wild card, because who knows how much some pitching starved team would overpay.

Khalil Greene & Kevin Kouzmanoff could be dangled to the Marlins, as Kevin Towers targets Brandon Wood as a SS replacement, along with top pitching prospects and/or Reggie Willits.

With Josh Bard in play during a potential fire sale as well, things could get crazy,

Of course, the Padres will most likely keep them all, and sign Carl Pavano for their '09 push...

And by Marlins, I mean Angels.

Peavy has an escalator claws in his contract which is based upon Cy Young votes and since Peavy won the Cy Young last year he will make $11 mil in 09.

you know im not sure if the clause still exists. was the latest contract he signed an extension to the old one, or did the rip up the deal and rewrite the contract from '08 on?

"When they traded LaPorta for cc, they depleted their system. Now both Sheets and CC will leave after free agency. The Brewers no that they will not compete after this year. They will focus on rebuilding this winter. Getting Peavy would take Escobar, Gamel, Parra, Jeffress, and an MLB ready outfielder."

How the hell do you know this? You simply rattled off the Brewers' top prospects, and shoved your opinion in between.

Obviously Peavy would fetch a nice haul, you however have zero clue exactly what it'd take. Probably smarter to not rule out trades you know nothing about.

Escalator claws? That sounds deadly.

But seriously "If not devastated with injuries the Padres might have been competitve"

Really? The only major injury I can think of is Chris Young, and unless he had Cliff Lee's record, he wouldnt make much of a difference. It seems like they have had less major injuries than the average team.

I have always felt that this is an over rated franchise. The Twins have created the best low-mid revenue team, far exceeding the A's or the Padres.

I like Kouz as an Angel, but I'm not convinced on Khalil... We already have enough high strike out/low batting average guys... I still want to see what Aybar can do at SS for a full season.

Take Parra/Escobar out.

UCSDPadsFan ...

That's more to what I was alluding to. The injuries were tough, but not insurmountable for a good club. The problem is that the Padres had so little room for error that even the tinniest of injuries had a dramatic impact on their overall effectiveness.

I do think they would have been competing with the rest of the class in the NL West if Young wasn't injured. His injury set-off a chain reaction of events that helped put the Padres in the position they are in today.

Yes you proved my point exactly. Matthews strikes out a lot, so does both Napoli and Mathis, neither one is a great hitter, Napoli has power and Mathis just does nothing. Oh and neither one is a great defensive catcher either. Napoli has 3 errors (which is actually pretty good for 58 games played) while Mathis has 12 errors in 84 games played (which is actually really bad because if you were to average that out for 162 games it would be about 24 errors). The only good things about Mathis is that his catchers earned run average (CERA) is at 3.68 this year while Napoli's CERA is about 40 points higher at 4.03 and that he has thrown out 27% of baserunners while Napoli has thrown out just 17% of baserunners. The problem is that when Mathis is in there for his defense he is pretty much an automatic offensive out except for his rare home run pop.

The other guys who strike out a ton are Wood and Rodriguez when there in there, although Wood has lowered his hands to cut down on about half of his strikeouts. Although the rest of the team does make consistent contact, adding a guy like Khalil would only add to the "high strikeout/low average" list.

With the Padres in forced payroll reduction, I wouldn't be at all surprised if they non-tendered Khalil Greene.

Take a long hard look at his numbers.

Even in his career year of '07, he still had sizable warts. His OBP was a miserable .291, and he K's too much. And that WAS his career year.

He's proven to be injury-prone, and his bat isn't all it's cracked up to be.

The Padres are going to cut salary, and Giles isn't the only target. Greene's trade value is next to nothing, and a full scale rebuilding project can certainly go on without Greene.

I would expect the Jays to be in on Gonzalez if he was considered Available. The Sticking point of coarse would be the Padres would want Travis Snider and the Jays would likely offer some sort of Cecil and Arencibia Package.

#1AngelsFan - Are you seriously going with this? Matthews is no longer a regular while Wood and Rodriguez are stop gaps. Meanwhile, the majority of Angel regulars are the exact opposite of what you said the Angels have a surplus of, in that they hit for a high average and strike out a comparatively small amount. The only K prone Angel hitters are the catchers, who are there for their defense, are far better than you claim and bring their own offensive gifts (Napoli has a good eye and knocks the tar out of the ballk when he makes contact, while Mathis pretty much exclusively gets hits with men on), Hunter who has a better than .820 OPS and is a defensive star and Teixiera, who hits for a high average, slugs and gets on base despite his relatively high K totals.

Meanwhile, the same guy you thought would be a good fit (Kouzmanoff) fits your idea of what the Angels don't need to a tee.

Oh, and why in the world do you keep trying to "improve" the best team in baseball?

In addition on the Peavy front, he has to approave the trade, has full no-trade clause through 2009, and limited the rest of the contract.
Any deal invovling him is going to be huge, you are getting him for 5 years if you want him, 2009-2013 (option year 2013). Meaning the returned will to be the Bedard deal then some.

by the way kouz away form petco: .304/.335/.473

Since Khalil has a contract in place for $6.5MM next year, I don't believe he can simply be non-tendered. Released, yes. But the salary would still be his.

Swapping him for Daniel Cabrera makes sense, but I'd rather see the Padres land hometown boy Hayden Penn.

Personally, I'd like to see Khalil's salary shed in an attempt to land Rafael Furcal.

Moving Peavy seems like the best move to me and would bring in a real nice haul. He is also a much more affordable #1 then sabathia. What the A's got for Haren may be what we are looking at maybe even a little more.
Peavy to yankees- Phil Hughes and Melky would be a nice start.
Red sox- Ellsbury, Masterson,Chris Carter. Would be a great start and might allow them to move Gonzales as well.
Ideally I would not trade Gonzales he's one of the only players that can hit there I'd move Peavy to the yankees for Hughes, Coke, Cabrera.Let go of Giles, Barrett and Hoffman.
2009 Padres
C Bard
1b Gonzales
2b Antonelli/Gonzales
ss Greene
3b Kouzmanoff
Rf Gerut
Cf Cabrera
Lf Headley/Hairston

Sp
Young
Hughes
Reinke
Baek
Leblanc
Banks
Rp
Meredith
Hensley
Hampson
Closer- Bell
Su- Adams
Thats almost 20 million offthe booksand the team will be just as good as this year with more room for improvement.

Why is Melky Cabrera included in a trade idea considered a "good start"? This guy is miserable and is showing that he doesn't really belong in the majors. If the Yankees are going to be giving up a young CF'er, it better be Austin Jackson.

Hughes/Cano/Jackson would be a better start.