Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Orioles

How high are the O's still on Radhames Liz? He was terrible this year in the bigs, but his MiLB numbers are astounding and he throws tremendously hard

Their payroll will be closer to $75MM if they don't make any moves.

They still owe $6.2MM to Jay Gibbons, and they owe an additional $1.6MM in deferred bonus to Baez.

Guthrie and Scott will probably be super-two eligible, so they will enter arbitration along with Markakis, Cabrera, Sherrill, and Ray. All told, that group should see their salary jump by $13-18MM.

They have a lot of money coming off the books after 2009, so they will be aggressive in signing premier free agents like Tex even though they are unlikely to compete next year.

Other priorities will be:

-Trade Ramon Hernandez to open up a spot for Wieters
-Trade Aubrey Huff if there is interest
-Make a decision on Roberts (either trade or extend)
-Sign Markakis to a long term contract that buys out a few free agent years

My prediction:

They will go after Tex hard but will be outbid by a more deep-pocketed team. Huff will stay put and play 1B. Ramon will get traded in a salary dump, and Roberts and Markakis will get extensions. They will sign a mid-range veteran pitcher to eat innings while they wait for Tillman/Matusz/et al.

So basically I'm predicting a relatively quiet and somewhat disappointing offseason.

MacPhail and Markakis (or his agent) have already had preliminary discussions about an extension, but it was postponed to the end of the season. I wouldn't be surprised to see him signed by the end of October.

So Wieters... midseason call up or challenging for s spot during ST?

I am leery of projecting a Hall of Fame career so I am not suggesting that folly with Teixeira. He could be; he could not. Who knows? But one should note that Murray falls under the category of a Hall of Famer who was ONLY a "very good player" for a over a VERY long time. Right now Teixeira's comps thru age 27 are a lot of "very good players", one of which is Willie McCovey. Not suggesting that he turns into McCovey or Eddie, but I want to point out that his combination of glove, power, switch-hitting talent make him instantly a very rare player.

Your analysis seems dead-on to me, Tim.

I don't think you'll find the Orioles trading Cabrera for similarly aged 2Bs with lower cielings. Cabrera is troubled with command issues but his cieling is still high. By infielders, I think Tim was specifically referring to SS. The only way the Os trade for a 2B is if Roberts also gets dealt (which is possible).

Sherril to Angels for Aybar? You can add in a prospect along with Aybar but I dont think it's necessary!

Yah they could start Wood at SS, but I would like the Angels to pry Hardy from Brewers, move Wood to 3RD and Figgins to left... Most likely not gonna happen because that's a lot of moving around but I would like to see!

1. This is a two year project...'09 to see who wants to be in the majors and '10 to win.

2. MacPhail is going have difficulty finding a GM to trade with him. But if he can trade Roberts, Huff, Sherrill or R. Hernandez and fill holes, he should. Mora and Walker have no value.

3. The O's have nothing, and I mean nothing, in the minors at 2B, SS and 3B.

4. 2009 will look like this:
C R. Hernandez (gone after '09) and about June Wieters.
1B Teixeira
2B Roberts
3B Mora (gone after '09)
SS the best they can come up with
LF Scott, Montanez (also CF & RF)
CF Jones
RF Markakis
DH Huff (gone after '09)

SP out of these 10 the 5 who want to pitch in the bigs: Guthrie, Cabrera, Olson, Albers, Patton, Liz, Bergesen, Waters, D. Hernandez and Tillman.

RP out of these 10 the 7 who want to pitch in the bigs: Sherrill, Johnson, Walker (gone after '09), Ray, Sarfate, Baez (gone after '09), Mickalio, Hoey, Bierd and Deza.

2010:
C Wieters
1B Teixeira
2B Roberts
3B the best they can come up with
SS see '09
LF Reimold, Scott
CF Jones, Montanez
RF Markakis
DH Brandon Snyder

SP see '09 plus Matusz, Arrieta and Erbe

RP see '09

Not bad in 2010.

"What do you guys think it will take for the Yanks to make a deal for Aubrey Huff."

Not cheap considering he's been smashing the ball this year. At least two top prospects and another piece, maybe more Horne or Marquez and Montero and a young reliever with an upside? Trust me when I say they won't take Kennedy as a top prospect.

"Cabrera is troubled with command issues but his cieling is still high."

People have been talking about his high ceiling for years and besides a flash every now and then that convinces people he could be an ace, he just seems to get worse. Over the last couple of years he's had trouble keeping the ball in the yard which is alarming considering his groundball rate has actually risen. And while his control has gotten a little better over the last couple of years his k/9 rate has had an alarming drop. I think it's time to drop the high ceiling arguement on him. Granted if he gets traded out of the AL East it'll be interesting to see how he fares but until then, he's a failed prospect.

Well, the most current examples of similarly high cieling players who struggled through their early 20s would be Oliver Perez and A.J. Burnett. Considering Perez was pretty much waiver fodder held down by significant command issues, and A.J. Burnett was a high-cieling guy marred by health and moderate command issues, both have turned it around. It isn't out of the realm of possibility that Cabrera needs a change of place and can turn it around and have some solid years starting before he reaches 30.

You do not sign Tex just to compete in 2009. He's the big bat that we've needed for quite some time now and with Huff and Mora set to leave after 2009, we are going to need more offense in 2010 and beyond that is not in our system. And the bats on the market in 2010 and 2011 will not have any ties to Baltimore whatsoever and will be on the downside of their prime years. Tex has ties to Baltimore because he's from MD and he also is from the same school and mold as Matt Wieters. You won't find another FA his age with those ties so he's our best bet at landing a FA bat that is in their prime years for quite some time.

You sign him at age 29 and you compete with him from ages 30-36. A similar FA bat in 2010 or 2011 would likely sign a 5-6 year deal at age 32-33 and you'd compete with them for ages 32-38. I'd rather have Tex in his prime from ages 30-34 than another player's 32-33 to 34. You get 4 years of a player in his prime vs. one or two. And those two or three years can make quite a difference.

Don't forget about Albert Belle. Angelos thought the Yankees were after him so he signed him to prevent him from being a Yankee. Of couse it was all a ploy to get Williams to sign, and the rest is history. Still Angelos will not allow Tex to go to a division rival without a fight. Tex will have to turn down the most $ to go to the Yankees.

The Orioles have enough cash saved up to go after any single player and can go toe to toe with any team in baseball for said player if they choose. Tex won't get as much money as A-Rod so the Orioles will be in it to the end IMO.

Perez didn't just show signs of success, he actually had a record of success. He was an ace in 2004. He also reportedly had an easily correctable flaw, he was falling off the mound when he threw a pitch which the Mets corrected. As for Burnett, he didn't just have flashes. Besides an injury history he's been fairly consistent and his peripheral stats have always been pretty good. Again, it'd be interesting to see Cabrera away from the AL East, but until then I think he's just going to be continually slapped around.

At some point even those guys turned into hopeless guys you sort of give up on. I remember on those Marlins teams you had 3 pitchers who were considered nice young pitchers who were going to be a solid core (i.e. Ryan Dempster, A.J. Burnett, and Brad Penny). At those times Penny was considered the lowest ceiling. Funny how none of these pitchers play for the Marlins, and, the guy with the lowest cieling might be the most accomplished. My point here is that, Cabrera sucks today. No way around that right now. It has been recently revealed that he's been pitching through some discomfort and is now resting the arm. Things look bad but things change all the time in baseball very quickly.

Tim, I agree with just about everything you said especially about Tex. The only thing I disagree with is Burnett. He is one injury away from an early decline. Both years Burnett has reached 200 innings, he has spent significant time on the DL for at least the next two seasons and his mechanics are terrible. Signing Burnett would be a mistake sooner than later. I do think signing some FA pitchers is a good idea to stabilize the rotation a little. We can't learn how to win if we're trotting out four AAA pitchers and Guthrie all year. I think we need a halfway stable environment to bring these young pitchers into so there is less pressure on them to succeed when they are called up. To go a step further, we'd have the luxury to start some out in the bullpen first instead of thrusting them into the rotation right away. We have some time to work with here.

For SS, I'm personally hoping to get Ben Zobrist from Tampa Bay for Bradford and see what he can do with regular ABs and a starting job. I don't want anything to do with Khalil Greene. He's completely overrated. The guy has a career BA of .248 and is good for about 15 homers. His 27 HR year looks suspicious when you look at all his others as far as power goes. His K/BB is terrible and as a result, so is his OBP. You can't really blame that on the ballpark and there is no excuse for a .248 career BA. He hit .213 with a .260 OBP this year in 389 ABs. A good hitter will hit no matter where he plays. Besides, he isn't worth 6.5MM a year and I have a feeling the Padres will want too much in return for the fan favorite.

Daniel Cabrera is most likely done as an Oriole. His future with the team at this point is uncertain and it's about time really. I've been fooled by him for the last time. He is not a mentally tough pitcher and he never will be. He has put up five terrible seasons (5+ ERA) to start his career and exactly zero pitchers have put up numbers similar to his and suddenly become good or great and please don't use examples of pitchers who were good that became very good or great. Cabrera is terrible, not good, not even average, but terrible and has not improved one bit. Instead, he's gotten worse and worse and worse. What's more, he is one of the least effective pitchers in baseball throwing the most pitches per inning of just about anyone. He will come down with some kind of injury at this rate and he has already been pitching with pain in his forearm this year before his recent suspension kicked in. DC is a lost cause. I am officially done with him, it's time to move on. The guy can't even show improvement. All he knows how to do is regress.

On a side note, Tim, why have next to none of the problems on this site been fixed except the look? Typekey still doesn't keep you logged in for more than a couple minutes and still says you're logged in when you're not, there are still semi-frequent page loading problems associated with cookies and we still can't edit our own posts. You even took the time to poll the users of the site for what improvements they wanted to see, which I thought was cool of you, but it seems none of those problems were addressed, except of course, the background and the look of the site. The functionality is still exactly the same as it was before it seems. I'm kind of disappointed in that.

start-wearing-purple
I think the O's would jump at the prospect of getting Ian Kennedy for Huff. I would jump on that in a second. I could see the O's doing that moving D-Cab for Barmes. Would any team have interest in Mora? I doubt it so one more year of Mora sucks but it is what it is. I would not go after Texiera I think there are better cheaper options. Trading Hernandez make sense and I think there would be a lot of interest in him.
I would move everything primarily that wasn't nailed down that includes Roberts,Huff,Hernandez,Cabrera,Sherill ,Walker and Mora.

I am curious about Ramon Hernandez and what the Orioles expect in return for him. I think he could be a good fit to be the Tigers starting catcher for just the 2009 season, but Detroit does not have alot of prospects to offer, especially in the case of pitchers. Are the Orioles trying to just dump his salary or are they going to be selective about their return for Hernandez?

My ideal offseason:
Okay just rambling but here we go. Players that need to be traded are Hernandez to make room for weiters, Roberts because he will not re-sign and his value is too much to not trade, Mora if he would allow it,sherrill,D-Cab, and Huff.

Hernandez to detroit for Zach Miner:
We get a guy that may be a good #4. We open a position for Weiters to start every day. Detroit gets a real catcher who will help to fix that staff. We may have to pickup some money but I'd pay some contract to get he future started.
Brian Roberts to Brewers for Rickie Weeks and Carlos Villanueva:
We get a 2b that I feel is very underrated and will fill a hole right away. We also get a starter who will fill in a #3,4,or 5. The Brewers get a top of the line 2b that takes over their leadoff spot,provides much better defense and adds some stability to that infield.
Melvin Mora to the White Sox for Josh Fields:
We get a 3b that is ready to roll right now. He lost some prestige with that organization and Mora would give them a big boost. Again I'd pick up significant contact that would make this happen.
Aubrey Huff to the Angels for Brandon Wood:
Gives us another player for ss or 3b with huge upside. Angels get a guy with huge numbers with a nice contract that allows them to not sign Tex and use that money for pitching a closer comes to mind.
D-Cab to Colorado for Clint Barmes:
We get a starting ss for the here and now and the Rockies get a starter to add to the mix with huge upside.
George Sherill to Chicago for Sean Marshall:
We get a lefty starter ready to pitch now and the cubs get a legit lefty for the back end of their pen.

Again this all for fun here is my 2009 O's

C Weiters/Quiroz
1b/Dh Scott/Salazar
2b Weeks
ss Barmes
3b Fields/Wood
Rf Markakis
Cf Jones
Lf Montanez/Reimold

Sp
Guthrie
Marshall
Miner
Villanueva
Patton
Penn
Olsen
Rp
closer- Ray
Johnson
Bass
Liz
Walker
Mickolio
Sarfate

This would tear it up next year. Payroll would drop and there would be so much room for growth here. Just my dream guys. Any other suggestions.

hey i herd you guys are trading jeremy guthrie cause his salary got too expensive for you.....750k is way too expensive for a team like yours......i heard your going to trade to the yakees for edwar ramirez and a box of tube sox