Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants

I have a feeling that this is going to be another great feature.

I could see the Giants landing J.J. Hardy for Sanchez.

I wonder if Kelly Johnson and a stud pitching prospect could land Cain. If not, KJ for Sanchez seems fair.

KJ for Sanchez is laughable.

Cain probably isn't going anywhere, at least until he gets more expensive and/or Alderson or Bumgarner pans out.

And while the NL West is pathetic, competing is for a playoff spot is still competition. Giants seem to be a couple bats away from that.

LOLZ @ KJ for Cain...this is the Braves we're talking about...the same team that traded Joey Devine AND another minor leaguer for someone that's no longer on their team (Kotsay)

Nice concept here; glad to see it.

I think the Giants have plenty of needs, but won't do much shopping in the off-season, other than for relief help (certainly) and a 3B (more questionably). Their starting pitching is set, and they've got enough in-house contenders for the open infield positions. Guys like Ishikawa, Sandoval and Frandsen need the opportunity to prove they can or cannot do the job on an everyday basis, and the first two of these guys could end the season with more homers than anyone on the team this season, thereby eliminating the need for power. If you brought in a retread like Crede or Blake at 3b or even Giambi at 1st, I'd be upset that the guys from in-house didn't get the at-bats they needs.

My dream for the off-season. Sanchez or Lowry is moved for a SS.

I like Emmanuel Burris, but he needs to show he can become a gap hitter before he's anything more than a back-up.

Also, please let's unload that Dave Roberts contract.

Sandoval should start like he has this year: a little 1b, 3b and C; and then after a full-season, we'll see where he belongs and where we need him.

I wrote up some Giants-Rangers trade thoughts earlier today:

http://tinyurl.com/5nmv58

Jamey Newberg

Tim, Note that ERA is no good for an individual pitcher but its just fine to summarize the performance of a team's pitching and defense.

He will be arbitration elible after the '09 season, and has stated that he wants to go year to year not sign a long term extension.

@ start wearing purple:

Question - how is that the Giants have a very nice pitching staff? Below are their rankings in the NL (out of 16 teams):

ERA: 9th // Opposing OPS: 8th // WHIP: 12th // K/BB: 10th // K/9: 3rd

Lincecum is lights out. Cain is a solid #2 starter. Beyond that ...

Sanchez enjoys a solid K/9 rate but his WHIP stands at a very Randy Wolfesque 1.41. After Sanchez it really starts to get ugly. I do agree that when you think of the Giants the assumption is that they have a nice pitching staff. Unfortunately, the numbers just don't bear that out.

A bat WOULD help. Just not sure who that bat will be. Crede would offer a marginal upgrade (assuming he stays healthy). His 17 HR's mask the fact that he is still a sub 800 OPS hitter with extremely questionable health.

The fact is the Giants are looking at a projected run differential of -140 runs. That's just to break even. Considering you need, at least, + 50 runs to have a decent shot at the post season the Giants need to somehow come up with almost +200 runs over this years performance. That isn't going to happen with signings like Byrd and Crede.

Which brings me to the conclusion. The Giants should NOT spend any money on veteran FA's. They need to suppress payroll and build up the minor league system. The worst thing they can do is believe that the team could be competitive by adding more over-priced vets to the team. Just my opinion though.

wcw: You forgot Matt Morris. Although Rowand was a good signing.

I'm not a Giants fan, so I might be missing a few things, but here it goes. The Giants shouldn't think of contending in '09 and should not trade any prospects: work on rebuilding the minor league system and increasing reliance on home grown talent.

1. Trade Randy Winn. He has value, someone will be looking for a rental OF, and this could be a spinoff of the Kotsay/Devine trade. Eating a little bit of his contract might be a good idea, especially if it nets decent position prospects.

2. Give Schierholtz the starting job for now. It is his to lose. Much rather him work out his lumps in a year when the Giants aren't going to be contending.

3. Trade Jonathan Sanchez. Who knows how he will perform next year. You have Alderson and Bumgarner(sp) waiting in the wings for 2010 and beyond, and the Giants aren't contending in '09. Swapping Sanchez for an impact bat and letting Lowry/Correia deal with the 4 spot is a good idea.

4. Do NOT trade Matt Cain. He is a #2 at well below market value and will be that way for a while.

5.Hold off on FA signings. A second tier FA might be a good idea, but no blockbuster deals. Without knowing what Ishikawa/Sandoval/Frandsen can do over the course of a season, one shouldn't block one of them with an FA.

"how is that the Giants have a very nice pitching staff? Below are their rankings in the NL"

Yeah, I'm overstating it. But I think Sanchez will learn control over the next couple of years. Zito, despite being paid as an ace is a #5 pitcher. Get Lowry, a solid number 4 pitching again and they have a potential of a good starting staff. So I'll rephrase... They could be a good rotation.

"Kevin Youkilis for Pablo Sandoval & Madison Bumgarner."

Let me phrase this politely... are you nuts! While Sandoval and Bumgarner could be great, they are 2 years away. Youk is having an offensively breakout year and anchoring the middle of the Sox batting order with by the way no one waiting in the wings (Anderson is a potential midseason call up). Besides that, Boston players need to be dirtdogs... hardcore players who put out 150% per day. Youk, Pedroia, Ellsbury, Papelbon, Lester are the face of the Red Sox. Young tough dirtdogs.

That could be a possibility, but I think San Fran wants young studs who can be the future rather than a 30 year old streaky 3RD baseman.

There's noway the BoSox would entertain the idea of trading youk... Gold glove fielder... Whether it's 1b or 3b... and a very good hitter... and he's young and cheap... for now.

Very cool new feature. I hope you do it for all 30 teams

Another name to consider for the Giants is Marlins 3B Dallas McPherson. McPherson definitely proved he was healthy this year after 3 injury filled years with the Angels. He could be had for a 1-2 year incentive based contract. Even though he is a lefty, Barry Bonds was able to make a successful career at AT&T park for 8 years, so there is no reason to think that McPherson can't as well.

He had a great year at AAA as well:

.275 42HR 98RBI

How about Cain to Angels deal? Angels need starter after Garland leaves, plus question marks about both Adenhart and Escobar... Angels have prospects that Giants would be interested in.

So I love this idea, btw...

I think that for the GIants to have the best (realistic) offseason as possible (without projecting trades for other teams prospects) they should look at the following deals.

OF Randy Winn + Cash
traded to the Yankees for
RP Damaso Marte
-these salaries would be a wash, the Giants get a better arm in the bullpen and they free up an everyday role for Nate Schierholtz. The Yankees fill the Outfield role that they need and Winn fits their bill. He can play all three positions and can play solid defense and can hit .300.

C Bengie Molina + cash and P Kevin COrriea
traded to Brewers for
SS J.J. Hardy
-J.J. hardy can fill the SS hole that the Giants have, especially since Burriss has been playing 2B very well. Hardy could be a great fill at SS until some of their younger players are ready to step up. The Brewers finally get a Catcher that can give them some production and another arm for pitching depth. The biggest thing is that the Brewers open up a spot for Alcides Escobar, one of their top prospects.

SP Jonathan Sanchez
traded to Angels for
3B Brandon Wood

**suprise everyone and offer a 5 year deal worth 21 million / per to Sabathia (rumors are he wants to be in the Bay Area)

2009: (*new players)
LF Lewis
SS Hardy*
1B Ishikawa
C Sandoval
CF Rowand
RF Schierholtz
3B Wood*
2B Burriss

C Holm
IN Frandsen
IN/OF Bowker
IN/OF Velez
OF Roberts

SP Lincecum
SP Sabathia*
SP Cain
SP Zito
SP Lowry

CL Wilson
SU Marte
RP Hinshaw
RP Valdez
RP Sadler
RP Romo
RP Hennessey

This team would be very very competitive in the NL West, which is pretty open every year. That pitching rotation could be DOMINANT.

#1 Angels Fan, on the Fanboy steroids, I see.

You seem to think Wood doesn't have some serious questions himself. And you'd be just about the only one who thinks that way, except for his mother.

"You seem to think Wood doesn't have some serious questions himself. And you'd be just about the only one who thinks that way, except for his mother."

I know Wood hasn't proved himself over a full season in the big leagues. I'm not being biased... If the Angels were to trade a talent like Wood who is a future superstar it would be in a package for Lincecum or Cain (like I previously stated) not for some future #2 or 3 starter who has been inconsistent in the majors for 3 years now. Granted the first 2 years he only started a total of 8 GM but in his major league career he has started a total of 32 GM which averages out to about a full season while posting a 4.92 ERA in the NL which means that if he were in the AL that ERA would be in the 5.00+ range. I may be wrong about Sanchez because I don't know too much about him, but when comparing a pitcher with 32 GM started and a career 4.92 ERA to a hitter with 46 GM and only 111 AB, you tell me the bigger question mark. It's not Wood because he hasn't played enough games to show anything.

I wonder if the Marlins would entertain the idea of:

Sanchez and Bengie Molina for Hanley

The Giants have a lot of options this winter. I can't see them signing Sabathia though because of all the money they have committed to Zito. But I could see Jonathan Sanchez being moved for JJ Hardy or a package of Sanchez and Molina for Uggla and Jacobs. They really need to add some pop to their lineup, and both of those deals will help them do that. Another good potential trading partner is the Rangers; they have alot of sluggers and no pitching. Cain, Hinshaw, and a few B level prospects for Chris Davis, Salty, and Elvis Andrus maybe could work. It should be an interesting winter for the Giants, look for them to make alot of changes this winter.

BJsGuess: Thanks for pointing out the run differential. Personally I think it helps keep the discussion grounded. If you don’t follow this team it can be easy to over look how large it is.

#1angels fan: You can’t really be trying to tell me a third baseman who has taken the MLB field for a max of 174 innings in a given year is more proven then a 25 year old lefty with top of the rotation type stuff that has managed 140+ innings in season in the Majors?

Look I like Woods potentional a lot but at this point he far more potentional ( and thus risk) then developed when compared to Sanchez. I am not saying Sanchez is polished yet not am I saying he is lock to be what he could. I am saying , at this point, Sanchez more proven.

For some reason, the Giants passed on McPherson when he was a free agent this off-season, it was announced that it was a mutual decision. I don't see how that has changed since then, plus Florida controls him now and probably will want something good for him.

I think 3B will be shared between Frandsen and Sandoval, and 2B between Velez and Frandsen and perhaps others. Burriss looks more and more like 2009's starting SS, Ochoa blew his chance, unfortunately for him, he's probably going to have to share SS with Bocock in 2009 at AAA, so opportunity is fleeting for him now.

I think Ishikawa will have to show more to get 1B all to himself, but he should be out of options next season, so he might get a chance anyway. But I can see him sharing 1B with Bowker, particularly if Winn isn't traded away. And against LHP, I could see Sandoval at 1B and Frandsen at 3B, with somebody else (Velez lead candidate) playing 2B.

Also, thinking more about it, there has to be another MI backup, possibly Ochoa, as Velez cannot backup SS and he probably is not passable as 3B because the Giants gave up on that experiment almost as soon as it began. If Bowker has another option, I can see him playing in AAA in 2009 and waiting for another chance.

"True, Sanchez has poor career numbers, but a great season in 2008."

A great '08 season?:

A 4.50 ERA... You consider that a great MLB season? If he was doing that in the AL then OK I'd consider it good... but not great! Wow no wonder the Giants keep losing, if their fans think a 4.50 ERA is great.

"Given Wood's high strikeouts and slow progress after high hopes in his 20 year old season, there are huge question marks on whether he can ever do what he does in the majors."

First off, Wood has lowered his hands to give him a shorter swing and shorter path to the ball. Since the adjustment, he has cut down on half of his strike outs. And slow progress... what do you mean slow progress? He's never been given a consistent opportunity!

Next, the Angels never gave up on him, he was never given a chance to prove himself so I don't think he failed the high hopes, he just needs to be given a chance to play.

"#1angels fan: You can’t really be trying to tell me a third baseman who has taken the MLB field for a max of 174 innings in a given year is more proven then a 25 year old lefty with top of the rotation type stuff that has managed 140+ innings in season in the Majors?"

I never said he was more proven than Sanchez, I said that Wood had fewer question marks because Wood (23 years old) has never been given the chance to play consistently. Sanchez (25 years old/ 26 in 2 months) has been given 3 seasons to prove himself yet he's never posted an ERA under 4.50 in the NL (IN THE NL... THAT'S MY POINT. A LESSER HITTING LEAGUE IN WHICH THE PITCHER BATS, WHO IS 95% OF THE TIME AN AUTOMATIC OUT. IT'S NOT LIKE HE'S DOING IT IN THE AL!) So if he's already 25 (almost 26), then when is he gonna prove himself? When he's 28?

Here is what I would do...

*Sign* CC Sabathia to 4 yr. 95 Mil.
*Sign* Jorge Cantu to 3 yr. 15 Mil.
*Sign* Jason Giambi to a 1 yr 12 Mil.
*Sign* Dan Wheeler to 2 yr. 4 Mil.
*Sign* Mark Mulder to a 1 yr Minor 1mil. deal.

-Pickup Rich Aurilia's 09 option so he can retire a Giant. He has some life. Wouldn't hurt that much to keep him.

This is a good off season for the Giants. It also allows them to consider trading Cain for a power bat. But If there was a three game series with Sabathia, Lincecum, Cain, teams would be shitting their pants. This also adds some OBP in Giambi/with some pop. Cantu is the number one hitter the Giants should go after. I mean this guy was so high in the Rays eye's coming up, and now look at what he's doing in Florida. He is a stud that needs to be picked up by the Giants.

#1 Angels Fan: This is the first season Sanchez as had to prove himself as a starter. The previous years has been bull pen work. In his first season as a starter he is near the 150 IP MLB innings pitched. Again I like Woods potentional but he is far more unproven then Sanchez. And if you are not proven you have more question marks. It’s the way the world works.

As for you NL/ no D.H. based “argument” the inverse would be if a club with a DH can’t carry Woods while he is learning MLB hitting the perhaps he is a lot farther away then you are rating him.

I guess we just have to disagree.

Juice: I can’t see a good Cain trade going down with Sabean at the helm. The man just does not trade for Minor Leaguers as the core part return package. Sanchez I can see though because a team does not have to gut itself to get him and Sabean can probably get at least one 25 roster type man for him.

alright would any Giants fan consider Cain for Jimmy Rollins (2007 MVP, local hero etc) and a choice of Kyle Kendrick or JA Happ? Heck we'd throw in Carlos Ruiz (solid defensive catcher) as well. Remember Rollins is VERY inexpensive through 2011. Something like 8 million a year.

Sign Cantu ( if he is really a FA), and Sabathia, or Sheets if the price for CC gets too high. Then get one or two solid relievers. Then trade away Sanchez for Dan Uggla, and try to see what you can get for Randy Winn/ Dave Roberts (relief help?). The payroll should end up in normal SF Giants payroll territory (85-95 mil)

2009 Giants

C- Molina
1B- Cantu
2B- Uggla
SS- Burris
3B- Sandoval
LF- Lewis
CF- Rowand
RF- Shierholz

SP- Lincecum
SP- Sabathia/ Sheets
SP- Cain
SP- Zito
SP- Lowry

RP- Wilson, Hinshaw, Taschner, Valdez, etc.

Well above average pitching staff and respectable offense in the NL West can easily lead to a playoff appearance