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« Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Bradley, Peavy, Young | Main | Hendry Extension Close »
Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Cubs. Their likely 2009 commitments:
C - Geovany Soto - $401K
C - Henry Blanco - $3MM (club option)
1B - Derrek Lee - $13MM
2B - Mark DeRosa - $5.5MM
SS - Ryan Theriot - $428K
3B - Aramis Ramirez - $15.65MM
IF - Ronny Cedeno - $407K+
IF - Mike Fontenot - $405K
LF - Alfonso Soriano - $16MM
CF - Reed Johnson - $1.3MM+
RF - Kosuke Fukudome - $11.5MM
OF - Felix Pie - $402K
OF - Micah Hoffpauir - $400K
SP - Carlos Zambrano - $17.75MM
SP - Rich Harden - $7MM
SP - Ted Lilly - $12MM
SP - Sean Marshall - $400K
SP - Jason Marquis - $9.875MM
RP - Carlos Marmol - $430K
RP - Chad Gaudin - $1.775MM+
RP - Jeff Samardzija - $1.8MM
RP - Neal Cotts - $800K+
RP - Michael Wuertz - $860K+
RP - Angel Guzman - $401K
RP - Kevin Hart - $400K
That's about $122MM committed, plus arbitration raises to Cedeno, Johnson, Gaudin, Cotts, and Wuertz. They will still be under $130MM after that. A bump in payroll is expected - $140MM? $150MM?
If the Cubs are able to retain GM Jim Hendry, his first order of business will probably be to re-sign Ryan Dempster and Kerry Wood before they hit the open market. Dempster could cost $14MM a year for four years, while Wood could require a salary in the $10MM range. Not sure about the term.
Even if Dempster's deal is backloaded, signing both could put the Cubs at $150MM. It figures that they will still look to add a left-handed hitting outfielder to play right or center field. That'd be easier to fit in if some of Marquis' $9.875MM can be moved. The Cubs can probably spare him despite Harden's fragility, since Gaudin and Samardzija are also starting candidates.
The free agent market offers Jim Edmonds, Mark Kotsay, Eric Hinske, Ken Griffey Jr., and Bobby Abreu. Players such as Adam Dunn, Milton Bradley, and Raul Ibanez could enter the picture if the Cubs convince themselves they can handle right field full-time. Brian Giles would be an ideal fit, if he will waive his no-trade rights. Jody Gerut, Jeremy Hermida, Coco Crisp, and Randy Winn could also be trade targets.
The Cubs could also look to add that lefty bat to the infield, pushing DeRosa to right. Maybe Fontenot is that bat. External options include Rafael Furcal, Brian Roberts, and Orlando Hudson.
I expect the Cubs to re-sign Dempster and Wood and then bring in one lefthanded hitter from the group mentioned above. This team had it all in 2008: offense, defense, pitching. The playoff performance was disappointing, but it makes sense to tweak the roster and just try to get back there.
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actually it does "jibe"..samardzija isn't going to do any worse than marquis and i would say that he would be better...and he would be the 5th starter doesn't affect the win now mentality either because you don't use five starters in the playoffs
and i agree i don't think wood is a sure thing as many think i believe dempster is more so because of his role in the clubhouse more so than his performance this year...but i am sayin you have to add something to the pen whether its people from the minors ready to go or whatever if you take wood and samardzija out of the pen
Posted by: gocubs | October 20, 2008 at 07:55 PM
why not trade Lee and Cedeno and maybe Pie to the padres for Peavy and mid-level prospect. Go after texeira for first base long term and maybe try and work fukodome out of chicago northside for a prospect....or for that matter give him away and go find a mid-level centerfielder that fits the mold. maybe Griffey for a year and a club option for the following year at maybe 4-6 million, you actually save three million a year moving cedeno and pie. If you cannot land Texeira, maybe go after Dunn to play first and watch him hit 70 in that bandbox of a ballpark. you might see targets on top of the buildings out on sheffield if that happens
Posted by: millerman8774 | October 20, 2008 at 09:58 PM
I also would not spend the money on Dempster, but would rather see them sign someone like derek lowe. Call the yankees on fukodome. They always could use an overpriced outfielder
Posted by: millerman8774 | October 20, 2008 at 10:00 PM
Or maybe trade soriano for crisp and a minor leaguer, sign dunn to play left, move derosa to right give fontenot the second base job. I would not give up lee, to good of a bat. Soriano has to go, can't stand him. Maybe try and trade some up the middle infielders from the minors and maybe hoffpauir to san diego for peavy. he would be cheaper than resigning dempster.
Posted by: millerman8774 | October 20, 2008 at 10:32 PM
Positive prospects for potential trades? I'd say that Marshall, Pie, Kroeger, Fox, Castillo, Hart, Wells, Colvin, Atkins, Ceda, Dumas Garcia, Canzler, Thomas, Papelbon, Chen, Jay Jackson, Bautista, Marquez Smith, Johnston, and Latham would all have appeal. In terms of making a big time trade for someone like Peavy, I'd say something centered around Ceda, Papelbon, Thomas, and either Colvin or Pie would be a good beginning. The problem is, there isn't a big-time, frontline prospect there. Smith and Bautista look like potential future studs, though.
By the way, it would be foolish to trade Vitters. For those that haven't been paying attention, ARam is signed through 2011 with an option for 2012. Come 2011, Vitters will be 22. In other words, about the time ARam may be headed out of Chicago... Vitters should be ready to replace him.
If Hendry can get one prime prospect for DLee, which I think can be done if you ship him off to whomever loses the Big Tex war, wheel that prospect with a few of our own in order to snag Peavy. Move Hoffpauir to 1B and provide that big LH bat for the middle of the lineup. Save $13 mil for other moves.
Trade Fuki and Marquis for whatever you can get. Eat all but $5 mil or so of their combined salaries if you need to. Move DeRosa to RF, start Fontenot at 2B.
Let Dempster and Wood walk. I doubt the Mets will take Wood, Adun. They are probably going to go after K-Rod or Fuentes. Of the two here, Wood is the guy I would prefer to keep. However, Peavy will be cheaper over the next two years than Dempster will most likely be. If you play your cards right, there will also be enough extra cash from making a couple of trades and from not spending what is already anticipated to go after Sabathia. If you miss out on Sabathia, you can still sign Burnett, Lowe, or Sheets and maybe keep a hold of Wood.
As far as CF goes, either give Pie a real shot at proving himself... or trade him and bring back Edmonds for one more season and give Colvin a chance at possibly getting it together in Iowa next year.
Posted by: Unlitedsoul | October 21, 2008 at 06:05 AM
the most likely move would be to sign Abreu. Doing that I would be ok with trading Lee to get a guy like Figgins. LA is going to lose Tex so they need a new 1st. Bat Figgins leadoff and playing 2nd base.
Figgins 2nd
Theriot SS
Abreu RF
Aram 3rd
Soriano LF
Soto C
DeRosa/Hoffpauir 1st
Fukudome/Johnson CF
Try to resign Dempster and Wood, but dont give them too much money. If they leave they leave.
Zambrano
Harden
Lilly
thats a solid top 3 there.
If you have to piece together the last 2 spots with guys like Marshall, Gaudin, Jeff S, Guzman, maybe even Hill you can be ok.
Most important is to get a LF bat to balance the lineup and a new leadoff guy.
Posted by: Sabinus | October 21, 2008 at 08:15 AM
Sabinus: I think you are very close.
This team has to be built in '09 to win the WS. Nothing else will be acceptable.
We can't win the WS counting on Soriano/Lee to play major roles. Both of these guys have won a WS and neither of them is motivated to do what it takes to win another.
To put us in the best position to win the WS Hendry HAS to do the following (assumes resigning Demp/Wood or equivalents):
1. We need a LH #3 hitter that can drive in runs and hit for power.
(D Lee had 1HR with runners in scoring position in '08) Trade both D Lee/Marquis as salary dumps and sign Blanco to a lesser deal. Anything for Lee would be a bonus. If we eat $3MM of Marquis salary - someone will take him for 1 year at $7MM. This frees up $20MM
Sign Tex to a 6 year $120MM deal. This guy is 28 and in his prime (a future HOFer).
2. We have to have a leadoff hitter that gets on base and sets the table. I think Theriot(or the old Fuku) can do this. Drop Soriano to 7th (can't hit in the clutch against good pitching)
These are the "have to dos"
The "like to do" would be to dump Soriano. Do you think someone would take him if we ate $5MM a year for 6 years? Then we could get a legit leadoff hitter in B Roberts or Furcal for the same money and put Derosa/Hoffpauir in left.
Do you think Hendry has the smarts and b@&&s to pull this off?
Posted by: HOF4Santo | October 21, 2008 at 10:32 AM
You can't trade Derek Lee unless he lifts his no-trade clause in his contract...so we're stuck with him. You can't dump Soriano because you'll be doing what the Nationals and Rangers were doing, which is pay off his most of his salary as he plays for another team. Also, I don't believe that anyone wants Marquis because of his contract unless we pay a big chunk of it as well.
Here's what I would do:
1.) Send Ronny Cedeno to the minors and have Pie take his place on the bench.
2.) Don't re-sign Ward, and have Hoffpauir take his place.
3.) Have Johnson and Fukudome platoon in Center.
4.) Go out and sign a left-handed power hitter to play right field.
5.) Tell Soriano to "suck it up" and earn his contract money by batting 3-5th in the lineup while having Theriot bat leadoff.
Posted by: Cubfan4life | October 21, 2008 at 11:28 PM
I think Carl Crawford, a left-handed hitting 27 year old would look good in Cubbie blue...
Posted by: Cubfan4life | October 21, 2008 at 11:34 PM
First of all, Cubfan, every year there are multiple players with full no-trade rights traded. Yes, it is more difficult to pull off, but it happens. As it is, one of the highest likely trade candidates in the MLB right now (Jake Peavy) has full no-trade rights! Typically, a player invokes no-trade rights in order to control where he will play. It does not normally mean he will not be open to a trade. As long as a player with full no-trade rights is being sent to a good team that is willing to take care of him, the player generally accepts the trade. This is exactly what I think should happen with Lee. Only teams that will be in the true bidding for Tex should be given the chance to make an offer for Lee. It is those teams that will be most open to giving up a topnotch prospect to fill a need for a solid 1B.
Secondly, can we get off of this Carl Crawford kick already? How many LF-only players do we need? We already have Sosiano. If Lee isn't traded, we'll also have Hoffpauir (who was less than impressive in RF this past September). Out of 925 career games, Crawford has played all of 54 in CF and 0 in RF,with no significant time in CF since 2004. Those 54 games he spent in CF were done so in a well below-average manner. This despite the fact that the Rays have had many times in the past 4 years where they needed someone to step up and play CF for Baldelli. Hell, the Rays moved a premium 2B prospect (BJ Upton) to CF last year because they knew Crawford couldn't play the position! So, how does Crawford fit into the Cubs' OF? There's ZERO chance of trading Sosiano. There's ZERO chance of either of them working out in CF or RF. Which speedy, no OBP generating, mega-millionaire gets benched? I think I'd go with the one capable of 30+ HR.
Besides, do we really need a guy who puts up average power numbers, good speed numbers, but carries a career OBP of .330 just because he's a LH batter? Why not just bring Jaque Jones back? Jones will at least hit a few HR and have a better shot at driving in runs. And no, this is not a call to bringing back Jones! Just pointing out that he would fit our needs better than Crawford would.
To be quite honest, if there was a chance that Sosiano could play RF, I'd sign Dunn... trade Pie with others in hopes of landing Peavy, try moving Fukudome to CF with the hope he can get his bat together, and keep Johnson around just in case Fuki does what all Japanese stars that busted big-time in their rookie years have in the MLB... gets worse.
Posted by: Unlitedsoul | October 22, 2008 at 09:46 AM
Oh, and sending Cedeno to the minors is just stupid, Cubfan! Who else on the bench would play SS? Cedeno filled the middle IF backup role near-perfectly this past season. Fontenot doesn't really have the range to play SS. DeRosa will be starting somewhere. No one else is left to fill that need.
Besides, if Edmonds isn't brought back... would you not think to fill that vacant spot on the roster with Pie? If he is, do you not think that he'll be playing CF against RHP?
Posted by: Unlitedsoul | October 22, 2008 at 09:56 AM
The Giants remain interested in upgrading their corner infield offense; however, the recent success of Pablo Sandoval in his first MLB opportunity creates a potential conflict for dealing Derrek Lee to San Francisco. Sandoval's size makes him less viable at 3rd base (and the Giants have Buster Posey coming soon behind the dish along with 1 more year of Benjie Molina if he's not dealt this offseason). I wonder if the Cubs would consider moving Aramis Ramirez instead. Eliminating his massive contract frees up a lot more money than Lee. DeRosa could move to 3rd base opening up a spot for Brian Roberts (via trade) or giving Fontenot more AB's. The money saved could enable the Cubs to bring back both Wood and Dempster. And there's some additional money available to find a productive OF bat as well. How entrenched is ARam in Chicago? Giants would need to send one of their 2 top young arms (Alderson or Baumgarner) and perhaps Randy Winn, perhaps more. Thoughts?
Posted by: OsbornetoRun | October 22, 2008 at 11:07 AM
As I've watched the postseason results over the last half dozen years or so, I'm convinced more than ever that a top notch bullpen is a must-have rather than a luxury. Therefore, I'm of the opinion that the Cubs would be well served by keeping both Wood and Marmol to lock down the final 2 frames. While many argue that a closer is a poor place to invest large dollars, you have two dominant arms in the back half of the Cubs 'pen now. It'd be a step backwards to upset that applecart, IMO. This club must be built to win in October. The Cubs could likely make the playoffs without keeping Wood, but I believe they'll win a championship with the player. This postseason was more an aberration than a true reflection on the Cubs ability to win a title, IMO. Fixes must be made but the bullpen is not the problem.
Another way to save money is to wait until later in the Hot Stove season and target teams that have missed on signing free agents - in particular clubs that need a reliable number 3/4 starter. Then work to deal Marquis at that time expecting less in return but moving most if not all of his salary. It's a gamble, but there always seems to be a club or two that have available budget and need to fill rotation holes in late January.
Additionally, I think that Cedeno is a terrific asset. He would start for many clubs right now giving an interesting mix of power, speed, and defense. He's excellent insurance in case of injury and a nice tool off the bench for Lou. I'm less enamored with Ryan Theriot long-term and would trade Theriot if a solid return could be found enabling the Cubs to upgrade elsewhere. This would potentially open up a spot for Furcal to leadoff. Lots of "if's" but that's the great joy of the Hot Stove season!
Posted by: OsbornetoRun | October 22, 2008 at 11:28 AM
What about Robinson Cano. I heard the Yankees are willing to talk for pitching and if the Cubs resign Dempster, the Cubs will have a surplus of pitching. Cano will give you a left handed bat with a little pop and hit for a good average. He also will play solid defense at second. I know Cano had a down year this year, but look at his other years. He has hit .300 every year with 15-20 home runs, driving in 96 rbi in one year.
Posted by: futurescout119 | October 22, 2008 at 02:59 PM
Unlitedsoul, these are just suggestions. So you're telling me that it's not possible for the Cubs to sign an athelete to play right field in Crawford? The Cub's need a true-leadoff hitter. Soriano is a power hitter and needs to once again suck it up and bat lower in the order. Secondly, I'm just not a fan of Cedeno. He basically waste the 25th spot, I would love to package him in a deal and let one of the minor league players fight for a spot during spring training. Finally, the Cubs need a leader in the clubhouse, you can't tell any of them were one during the season, not one.
Posted by: Cubfan4life | October 22, 2008 at 07:56 PM
Here we go 2009! Cubs!
Trade D. Lee, Marquis,Fukudome for prospects!!!! decline blancos option(it already happend)saves about 27.5mil in salary space. Do not resign Dempster and Wood... instead offer Teixera and Sabathia contracts in the range of 7yrs/147mil each- that would put the payroll at 140 million. Sign Furcal to a incentive based contract.
ss furcal (switch hitter)
2b theriot (rh)
lf soriano (rh)
1b teixera (sh)
3b ramirez (rh)
c soto (rh)
rf derosa (rh)
cf pie/johnson (lh/rh)
Good Balance in hitters!!!
sabathia
zambrano
harden
lilly
marshall/samardzija/gaudin
This would be a team to beat in '09 with roughly 150 million payroll.
Posted by: cubs23 | November 02, 2008 at 11:17 AM
omg that guy up there siad carlos marmol for randy winn????? wow no way the cubs will give up marmol hes one of the reasons the cubs were so good this year
Posted by: CMichaels6 | November 02, 2008 at 04:59 PM