Peavy Trade Talks Begin

lets go cubs put in all the chips to get this guy.

cubs get: jake peavy

padres get: ryan theriot, felix pie, jason marquis, rich hill, tyler colvin.

theriot had 178 hits, and thats what they need infront of adrian. felix pie in my eyes is the next alfonso soriano, and rich hill had 189 K's 2 years ago.

what do yall think??

Felix Pie the next Soriano???? The same guy who has had like 5 chances, and can't stay in the big leagues?? Don't be ridiculous

If the Yanks really do have a shot, this is the time.

The Yankees should be prepared to give a Hughes-based package.

The rotation MIGHT then look like

Peavy (RHP)
Sabathia (LHP)
Wang (RHP)
Pettitte (LHP)
Chamberlain (RHP)

Opposing lineups would have to make a daily adjustment.

theriot batted .309 with 22 stolen bases and had the most multihitting performances in the NL besides jose reyes. felix pie has been up and down b/c we have 3 center fielders, he can potentially steal over 50-75 bases a year, hes 23 years old and has the best arm and glove in the minors for a OF. marquiz can eat up innings next year for the padres as the rebuild so they dont kill there young arms

I don't know if the Reds have enough in the farm to get Peavy, but I would start with Homer Bailey, Micah Owings, Chris Valaika, and Drew Stubbs. This would give the Pads two young fringe starters, a young SS, and a young speedy OF who are all almost ready if not there already. Would that be enough?

A rotation of Peavy, Harang, Volquez, Cueto, and Arroyo will win a bunch of games.

I'd personally love to see Peavy pitching in Boston. However, I don't know if Boston is willing to part with what it would take to get him. Tito is still pretty high on Clay Buchholtz so I doubt he's going anywhere.

Then again, Theo's surprised us before (see Nomar trade).

Theriot, Pie, Ceda, Veal, Vitters may get it done. I dont think we really need Peavy though.

You guys forget the one team poised to make this trade more then anyone would be the Braves. They are loaded in the farm system and are in desperate need for an ACE. I personally hope they dont unload the farm system for him but there is no doubt they will be in it until the end.

J. Peavy to yanks 09

z

Peavey in the trade market would net what the A's got when they traded Haren to the Diamondbacks.

For the Cubs they would have to give up Vitters, Hill, Pie, Theriot, and Marshall.

I wonder if the Brewers would be willing to trade away Cain, Jeffress, and Hardy for Peavey.

I don't believe the Brewers will trade away Jeffress though.

Peavy is under control for 5 more years at the not so bargain basement prices of:

2009: $8 million club option w/$500,000 buyout
2010: $15 million
2011: $16 million
2012: $17 million
2013: $22 million club option w/$4 million buyout

Because he is owed a lot of money, he’d be more likely to go to a big market team like the Yanks, Red Sox or Cubs, though a team with a deep system and money to burn could snag him in a close to Haren type deal.

I don't think the Cubs have enough in their system to get Peavy, but any deal would probably start with Josh Vitters and a few guys closer to or in the majors.

The Yanks have the juice if they're willing to work on a deal that starts with Hughes and includes another top prospect like Jackson or Montero plus some filler. That could very well get the job done.

If he only wants to go to an NL team, and eliminating each team in the NL West, I'd guess that the Cubs, Mets, Brewers and maybe the Cardinals, Reds and Houston would be the most interested and able to get a deal done.

As a Padre fan, the Braves are the team I'm hoping pony up some prospects for Jake.

It'd also be ideal if the Padres could find a trade partner willing to take on Khalil's contract as well.

With the Padres clearly cash-strapped, they might be willing to sacrifice a little in talent to rid themselves of the $7MM Khalil's owed next year.

Jake Peavy & Khalil Greene
for
Jordan Schafer, Yunel Escobar, Cole Rohrbough & Gorkys Hernandez

That's 3 top prospects and one major league ready talent. Giving up Schafer AND Hernandez would hurt, but the Braves would still have Heyward & Jones, not to mention an ace for the next five years in Jake Peavy.

With Khalil, they're paying the extra salary for a top defensive SS who needs to get out of Petco to show off his offense. And if they don't re-sign him after next year, they get some draft picks to help refill the farm system.

Without Khalil, a lower level prospect is needed, in my opinion.

Let's get this straight, people.

Peavy will cost at least two TOP prospects. One will probably be erring on the side of elite.

Think Haren deal. That's what Peavy will net the Padres.

I don't understand why you think your extraneous garbage will net you one of the premier pitchers in the game. I'm looking at Yankees and Cubs fans in particular. Don't think you'll be getting a discount because you picked up some idea that he won't be able to pitch as well in x division. If this actually happens, Kevin Towers will be sure to make this an absolute blockbuster deal. Melky Cabrera won't do it. Robinson Cano won't do it. Ian Kennedy probably won't do it. Jason Marquis? Ryan Theriot? You've got to be kidding. Quantity doesn't equate to quality.

"theriot batted .309 with 22 stolen bases and had the most multihitting performances in the NL besides jose reyes. felix pie has been up and down b/c we have 3 center fielders, he can potentially steal over 50-75 bases a year, hes 23 years old and has the best arm and glove in the minors for a OF. marquiz can eat up innings next year for the padres as the rebuild so they dont kill there young arms"

Theriot does not have that much trade value. Comparing him to Jose Reyes is insane. Felix Pie is NOT the best defensive OF in the minors...there are players such as Colby Rasmus, Jordan Schafer, Andrew McCutchen, and Cameron Maybin who would beg to differ. And Marquis is not an upgrade for any team. He is an over paid #5 starter.

Easy people...some Cubs fans are bad...but not all of em'.

cubs get: jake peavy

padres get: josh vitters (top 10 prospect), righ hill (can strike a hell of a lot of batters and expesially in that ball park,tyler colvin, felix pie, and your chioce between sean marshall / rran theriot / andrew cashner.

cubs get: jake peavy

padres get: josh vitters (top 10 prospect), righ hill (can strike a hell of a lot of batters and expesially in that ball park,tyler colvin, felix pie, and your chioce between sean marshall / rran theriot / andrew cashner.

No! The Padres dont want Rich Hill, Felix Pie, Theriot, Sean Marshall, or Marquis. Stay away from Peavy and get a lefty bat! (good call studio). Would have been nice to have 1 or 2 against all those Dodger righties huh?

Rich Hill lost a lot of value this season after being demoted all the way down to the AZL because he couldn't find the plate. It's doubtful the Padres would take him for Peavy as anything more than a throw-in or ancillary part of a deal.

You think the Padres would do Lugo, Crisp, Varitek, and Timlin for Peavy? Seriously people.

Aduncaroo

Don't see the Padres having much interest in Anderson; not a bad player at all, but they've got quite a few flawed catching prospects already. They seem to have changed their minds a bit on catchers who can hit some but struggle to throw runners out.

Rasmus, definitely. I expect they'd target Rasmus and Perez as the main parts of a deal.

The Brewers have the prospects, but I think if they called and didn't start the conversation with the words 'Gamel' or 'Escobar', there would be a dial tone pretty quickly.

braves get peavy, meredith

padres get schafer, hanson, and prado

"The Brewers have the prospects, but I think if they called and didn't start the conversation with the words 'Gamel' or 'Escobar', there would be a dial tone pretty quickly."

Depends what the Padres are looking for really. If Hardy is involved the Padres are getting a top 10 offensive SS in MLB.

In the deal I proposed they are getting a top 10 MLB offensive SS, the Brewers best catching prospect (Salome isn't a good defensive catcher), a LHP starter who is ready to go 200 IP and is young, and a low A OF prospect. That is getting close to a deal that brought Haren to the Diamonbacks.

Jeffress could be switched with Parra but I don't believe the Brewers are interested in trading away Jeffress who is really their only pitching prospect in their organization.

'braves get peavy, meredith

padres get schafer, hanson, and prado'

Are you insane!? You must be a Braves fan. I will say it again people- Jake Peavy will take your teams best 2/3 prospects- a pitcher and hitter plus more. If you dont have that, you probably wont get him. To throw Meredith in there is crazy. Hughes and some other prospect wont work either. People think just because they like some prospects they are worth Cy Young award winners.

I know I have posed on this subject already, but I figure I will take another crack at it.

Notjoemorgan, you are insane. Melky and Kennedy doesn't net Peavy...at all. That isn't even a good starting point for negotiations.

As a Braves fan, I have already mentioned that Peavy's elbow may explode before his contract ends, so I am not a fan of making a trade.

That said, I am pretty sure the Braves are one of the teams that has inquired as to Peavy's status, and I am sure that the Pads will ask for something along the lines of the Haren deal, as they should.

WestCoastbiased, there is no way that the Braves trade Shafer and G. Hernandez. One or the other I can see. By the way, there is no way in hell the Braves are taking on Greene's contract without a downgrade on the asking price of Peavy. Furthermore, Yunel will not be traded. I can pretty much guarantee that.

All said, I can see a package of Kelly Johnson, Morten, Rohrbough, and Schafer/Hernandez. Maybe a little more, but not much.

I would also like to assert that I would not at all be in favor of such a trade.

J.J. Hardy, Parra/Jeffers, a another good prospect, and a level a prospect is a not bad deal but would you really do that?

I would like the Rangers as a fit but I cant see San Diego not asking for a very good pitcher in return. Teagarden, Davis, and a pitcher would probably do it, but do the Rangers have any young good pitching?

braves get peavy

padres get schaffer, hanson, jojo, prado

"but do the Rangers have any young good pitching?"

Most of them are at least a season off, but they have a nice stock pile.

I would think any deal with the Braves would/should probably include Jurjens.

no chance

FYI: Peavy's injury history:
5/20/2008 Strained right elbow 15 day DL (5/15/2008 - 6/12/2008)
10/4/2005 Broken left rib day-to-day
5/27/2004 Strained tendon, right forearm 15 day DL (5/20/2004 - 7/2/2004)

That's two injuries to his pitching arm that are somewhat alarming.

Another note:

Peavy's Home/Road ERA splits this year are 1.75/4.28. Just food for thought...

What about?
Peavy to the Rays for Reid Brignac(can replace Greene @ SS), Wade Davis(Rays 2nd best pitching prospect behind Price), and the re-establish (value will never be higher than it is right now) Edwin Jackson. 2 "Elite" prospects and 1 young major league proven starter in exchange for 3 years of a prime ace. I know it's less quantity-wise than the Haren deal, but it's better in quality.

Hypno,
Jurrjens isn't a prospect...he is a proven starter who could be a future ace. I understand that the Pads will likely ask, but they won't get anywhere in the asking.

It's not 3 years of an ace. It's 5 years. Peavy's signed through 2013.

Agree with HypnoToad. If it doesn't hurt to acquire Peavy, you're not giving up enough. Maybe the Braves don't trade Jurrjens or Hanson, but the Padres don't have to move Peavy. They especially don't have to move him this year, before his contract really escalates. Unless the owner's divorce changes everything, of course.

Peavy won the frickin' triple crown for pitching in 2007 (leader in wins, K's, ERA). And before I get the "but he pitches in Petco" comments, he was actually better on the road that season. And he'll be just 28 years old next season and under contract at a good price for the next few years. Any trade including Peavy would have to bring back some big-time talent.

I'll take a stab at what it would take to get this done with a team like Atlanta, who would make sense because it's close to Peavy's hometown and because they do have some interesting prospects.

Packaging Khalil Greene, as suggested in an earlier post, doesn't seem too farfetched. It would allow the Braves to trade Yunel Escobar to SD (Pads love high OBP guys who don't stike out often so I'm sure he'd be a prime target) and if Greene left as a FA after '09, Lillibridge would be ready to step in for the Braves in '10.

With that said, I would trade a package of Peavy, Greene, and maybe a 2nd-tier prospect for Yunel Escobar, Jordan Schafer, Tommy Hanson, a major-league ready mid-rotation starter (Chuck James?), and one or two lower level prospects with high ceilings.

Maybe it seems like too much for some people but I'm guessing that is the kind of package Kevin Towers would be looking for if he does pull the trigger.

SD,
Peavy's Career ERA on the road is a 3.80, about 1pt higher than at Petco. Not that a 3.80 is bad, but it isn't the 2.70 total era he seems to post every year. And he has a history of elbow problems. And his mechanics are on the violent end which often leads to elbow problems.

He is a great pitcher, never said otherwise. But if you think the Braves are going to trade a great shortstop and their #1 pitching prospect, plus Schafer, and another pitcher for Peavy and an albatross contract, you are mistaken. Should they ask, sure, but I am saying that realistically I don't see that happening.

I don't know if they can stack up with other teams' offers without overpaying, but the Cardinals should be in the thick of this. What kind of package could they put together?
- Obviously Rasmus is the starting point.
- Adunc brought up Perez but I remember reading that Mo said his most sought after prospect at the deadline.
- Their next best offensive prospect is Bryan Anderson, who has more upside at catcher than Nick Hundley, but is it enough of an upgrade to warrant significant interest?
- Jess Todd, Clayton Mortensen, and Mitch Boggs are not top-level pitchers, but as 4th and 5th pieces they could compare in value to the likes of Greg Smith/Dana Eveland types. Let's say Todd and Boggs complete the package.

OF Colby Rasmus
RHRP Jason Motte
C Bryan Anderson
RHP Jess Todd
RHP Mitch Boggs
OF Joe Mather for good measure.

Umm... I don't know where the whole "I only want to play in the NL" thing came from. If the Yanks are on Peavy's list, it's probably not going to happen anyway because Cashman wouldn't want to part with the talent it would take to get him. He's probably gonna end up with the Cubs or Braves. Mostly because Cashman would rather get Sabathia with only money and draft picks than trade a lot of minor leaguers.

I think that ink-stained-scribe and I are on the same page.

And by the way, we didn't rank the Braves prospects highly, places like BP, etc. did.

I don't see the Rays getting involved in this, as I see them needing a bat more than a starter. I think Adam Dunn would fit the Rays if they were willing to pay that much which I highly doubt, and also because their lineup is already too left-handed oriented. Perhaps Pat Burrell, again depending on their willingness (or seeming lackthereof) to spend money.

Also, I don't see Brignac as an "elite" prospect. He has a chance to be a good ML SS, and that does not constitute elite when you are already at the AAA level.

I think the Rays ending up staying the course with their current plan of continuing to infuse youth.

i think he will take as much or more than what the orioles got for bedard or what the diamondbacks gave up for haren

Jurrjens is probably out of the equation completely. He is under control for at least the next 4 years (anyone know exactly?) and makes next to nothing. And yes I realize his salary will go up due to arbitration but it will be nothing approaching what Peavy makes. There would be no reason for the Braves to trade their best starter in that type of contract situation for Peavy.

Are the Padres fans aware that Schafer was the Braves #1 B.A. prospect this year and Hanson will likely be a top 25 prospect for 2009? I'm hearing trades that include both of these players + MLB proven talent like KJ or Escobar. Seems like expectations for a Peavy exchange are somewhat out of line and unrealistic...

Let me make this clear to all that doesn't realize that two of Hernandez/Schafer/Hanson is a bit too steep if you ask me. Peavy is certainly a top of the rotation starter, however in my mind, he also brings that injury risk much like Harden did coming to Chicago. So with that in mind, I think a top prospect along with two second-tier prospects and one major league ready player would get the deal done.

So here's my offer:
Padres get: OF Gorkys Hernandez, OF Brandon Jones, P Charlie Morton and SS Brent Lillibridge
Braves get: SP Jake Peavy

That imo is enough to acquire Peavy, especially since the Padres would be getting a ton of salary relief. And again Peavy's value is not as high as could be since he had an injury riddle year during '08.

There's no way Jurrjens is traded for Peavy. Not after he's proven himself at the ML level. A year ago I could've seen them spinning him off to San Diego if Peavy had been on the block...but not now. Don't get me wrong, Peavy is by far the superior pitcher, but it's not happening.

The impression I've gotten is the Braves "untouchables" are as follows. Listed in order of how "untoouchable" they really are imho.

1. Jason Heyward
2. Julio Teheran
3. Tommy Hanson
4. Freddie Freeman
5a. Jordan Schafer
5b. Gorkys Hernandez

If the Braves want Peavy they're going to have to do 1 of 3 things:

A.Trade 2 of the above players plus 2-3 lowel level, but solid prospects. These players would depend on who the top prospects are.

B. Trade one of the above players, an inexpensive+productive ML player (Yunel/KJ come to mind) plus 2-3 lower level, but solid prospects. These players would depend on who the top prospect is.

C. Trade a bundle (between 7 & 9) of the organizations 2nd tier prospects. Lower level guys who rate in the "B" range but project to move higher. In other words, if the top guys are truly out of play, it's going to take close to half of Atlanta's remaining top 20 prospects. This would only work if Peavy holds them hostage with the no-trade or the Pads want to pull a Haren-type deal and spread the risk over a larger group of prospects.

^ But Gorkys right now holds more value than Schafer does, mostly due to his suspension at the beginning of the season. And really that is not a ton imo that we're giving up. But Peavy's value is down from a year ago and he still carries that injury risk.

Guys, Lillibridge has lost a lot of value over the past season. Brandon J hurt his value too, but he mashed the last couple of months so I think he would be deemed valuable by a lot of clubs. Lil'bro is only going to be considered as a throw-in for a deal for Peavy.

If the Padres demand A or B from what I listed, if I'm Frank Wren, I think I just fill my top spot through free agency then go after a arb-eligible guy for the 2 spot. Greinke if he's available, someone else if he's not.

I think the Brewers might emerge as a potential possibility regardless of what happens with the CC Sabathia situation.

It's widely known that the Padres have desperately wanted Tony Gwynn Jr. in their organization and it's becoming more and more evident that the Brewers have an unwillingness to make him an everyday player. Although I'm not how much I read into it, the Brewers are allegedly willing to make either Prince Fielder, JJ Hardy or possibly both available this offseason to bolster the starting rotation. With Adrian Gonzalez at 1B, the Padres would have little interest in Fielder but a deal such as JJ Hardy, Tony Gwynn Jr. and possibly another minor leaguer could be a possibility. Of course, the Padres have Kahalil Greene currently at SS but that's a situation they can't possibly be happy with at the moment.

If Peavy does indeed become available, I would look for the Brewers to be a player in this thing.

Peavy's contract is so ridiculously lopsided (in consideration to the Santana and inevitable Sabathia contracts) that potential suitors will likely be lined up around the block to "overpay" for his services.

Yes, the Braves have a large collection of high-end prospects. Not one of them has yet won a Cy Young award, though. None of them have a career ERA+ of 121 with a peak over 150. Peavy's not going to be traded for less than a lot of high-quality players. He's got a bit of an injury history, but he's thrown 800 innings the last 4 seasons. Rich Harden has thrown 612 innings in 6 years.

All this assumes that the Padres are still trying to make a baseball trade and aren't just interested in clearing salary.

Baleen, i.s.s., and a.b.f. all seem to have a good idea of what it would take. It's going to sting. At least one, possibly two, of the untouchables would need to be touched. And that still won't sting as much as the Padres losing Peavy.