Jake Peavy Rumors

meh.. keep Hughes. Jackson, zmac and betances for that matter too...

i am curious to see how peavy would do in a full season in the AL EAST, though. Yanks hit him hard this year i remember

Melky/Hughes/Kennedy? Are you effing crazy? No way that deal goes down.

I'm thinking more along the lines of AJax/Joba/an SP prospect

IN TLR WE TRUST- The Padres will easily be able to get 2 SP prospects.

Hahaha silly yankees fans and your lop-sided trades...

you really must have no idea how much peavy is worth..

yes hes been in a pitchers park in the NL, but i place his value amongst the top three best starters when hes having a good year

Yeah but he finished the season ranked 16th, so who cares.

True. I agree that he is probably the top 3-5 in baseball though.

Lets say the Yankees are willing to offer Hughes and Jackson. who would be the second starter? would it be Kennedy? could it be?

"when was the last time a national league pitcher came to the american league and had success? pedro?"

Beckett is the first that comes to mind...

"I think any Yankees package for Peavy has to be around Jackson and Hughes, and probably a couple "filler" pieces."

but who would the fillers be? they want 2 starters and the yankees best behind Hughes is Kennedy, but everyones under the impression hes not a good pitcher.

the yankees need to build farm system up. trading their prospects, even for a pitcher like peavy, would be a mistake.

"glad you mentioned beckett.
i couldn't/can't until i see how he pitches tomorrow"

really? i def think somethings physically wrong but it wouldnt surprise me if he comes back and shuts the Rays down.

"the yankees need to build farm system up. trading their prospects, even for a pitcher like peavy, would be a mistake."

says a red sox. just imagine a 4 game weekend series CC vs. Beckett. Peavy vs. Matsuzaka. Chaberlain vs. Lester. Pettite vs. Wakefield. How much fun would that be?

AJax won't be traded, one because the Yanks won't and because he is not ready. People here think Kennedy is not worth anything. Please remember that young pitchers like Garza and Danks struggled as well in their first few years. And Also I think the Padres would prefer an AL team this way they won't have to face him. And its not about which team can put the best package together, its about if they are willing to trade them, that being said, I don't see a team like SL. Louis trading Ramus. Why would the Yanks trade Joba, they already know he can pitch in the AL east and he is way cheaper.

the yankees system is 3-4 years away from being even close to those of the sox rays and even jays. i think sacrificing a few guys now to get a front line guy for the next 5 years is worth it. itll save draft picks that would be spent signing someone.

BTW - my post DID NOT take Melonis' proposal. Typo on my part. In several threads dealing with Peavy people have offered Hughes/Joba/Cabrera. I didn't mean to attribute that to Melonis.

WHERE IS THAT TYPEPAD UPGRADE???

remember the yankees are trying to WIN NOW and rebuild. if they go out and get a Peavy and sign CC then the Front end of the rotation is set for YEARS. with Joba as the 3 theyd just have to find 4 & 5.
This trade could lead to signing Tex which fills a positions whole. and there isnt many of those.

Beckett by no stretch of the imagination had success going from the NL to the AL initially.

He went from a 3.38 ERA to 5.01 ERA and gave up almost 3 times as many homeruns once he hit the AL. He eventually settled and had a good following season but really he made his name in the post-season and his regular season numbers have never been at the level of a Santana or Peavy or Halladay.

I would not be shocked to see the Yankees give up the farm so to speak after keeping Hughes and Kennedy last year and seeing how that all turned out. Hank is going to have an itchy trigger finger and I doubt Cashman can counter-balance him now.

And now that I think about it, I don't know that the AL East is the same big masher league it was the last few years. With Manny exiting the Sox, the Orioles trying a youth movement with a focus on defense and pitching, the Yankees in a state of flux with Giami & Abreu as pitch count killers likely moving out, the Rays (this series excluded) winning with pitching and defense the AL East may be becoming more palatable for NL pitchers.

Yeah theres no question that Cabrera will not be in any deal. He and Cano are the reasons its much better to have grinders then happy-go-lucky player.

If Peavy went to the Yankees, he would definitely need a year to adjust to the AL. He would be good in his first go-around of the league, then struggle the second time, and even out after that. It's what Beckett did, it's just the way it seems to go.

That being said, I don't think the Yankees will trade for Peavy. Could they? That's debatable. The fact is it would start with Hughes and Jackson. Melky is not a good ML player, offensively or defensively. I don't think the Yankees have anymore pieces that fit the mold of what the Padres are looking for. Kennedy projects as a bottom of the rotation starter, albeit a decent one. I don't see this deal happening. I see the Braves as the front runners, if they want to. Otherwise, the Cardinals if they will package people around Rasmus.

I'm not down with Hughes for Peavy. Obviously Peavy is better but hold onto Hughes and buy an arm or two. Huge upside young players are pretty much the only thing money can't buy you in baseball; Yankees need to (and I believe do) recognize that.

(And whoever put Kennedy in the same sentence as Garza and Danks: Despite the similar early struggles, the difference is stuff. Garza and Danks >>> Kennedy. I almost feel bad for him getting lumped in with Joba and Hughes. He isn't and can't become what they can.)

I think the Yankees could get a deal done for less than Hughes and Jackson. Hughes is still a great prospect and Jackson is one of the best young CF in the minors. From what I've seen that other teams plan on offering, I think Hughes and Jackson would be an unnecessaril high offer. They would be better of offering something like Jackson/Kennedy/Brackman or Hughes/Kennedy/Melky.

How 'bout a Schafer/Morton/Medlen/Flowers package from the Braves?

I'd say that's a pretty strong starting point, anyway.

alan-

Here are my thoughts. SD would laugh their ass off at that trade proposal.

Ankiel is a FA next you so he has no value to the SD and Garcia just had TJ surgery so again why would SD be interested. And kennedy? Seriously? I'm not even going to comment on that.

Any Cards trade for Peavy has to include Rasmus otherwise there is 0% chance of it happening. So please don't post these crap trade ideas because you are embarrassing yourself.

The Yankees won't get Peavy mark my words,they always have interest players,like Johan Santana,but in the end they won't get em...They'll just end up sign CC Sabathia.

I know that the brewers probably arent interested, but something like Jeremy Jeffress, Manny Parra, and Tony Gwynn Jr would have to be close... I think?

The only place Peavy can be traded to is New York, so he can go into the hall as a Padre.

I don't think Peavy makes any sense for the Yankees. They can get C.C. for nothing but cash, AND they have two great veterans who will probably play for them and nobody else. I'm not in any way a Yankees fan, but they'd be selling low on half the prospects the Padres would want. Also, seriously. He pitches in PETCO and the NL. Is there a bigger jump in difficulty for a pitcher than to go from that to the AL East, especially with no idea how the new ballpark will be for pitchers? It's stupid. This rotation costs nothing but cash and is playoff caliber:

Sabathia
Wang
Mussina
Pettite
Joba

Sign a reclamation project not named Pavano to a minor league contract, and you still have Hughes and Kennedy in the wings for depth. They're still good prospects.

Dealing for star players almost never makes sense. And people expect big market teams like the Yankees to do that even though it doesn't play to their strength - big market doesn't mean deep farm, and in the Yankees' case it clearly doesn't.

"I think its pretty clear that both Schafer and Rasmus are both a cut above Jackson"

Rasmus is clearly a cut above both, Schafer might edge out AJax if you're a Braves fan.

Just a thought ... why not trade an ace for an ace ... why is Wang untouchable?

There's no reason to go after Peavy anyway. Id rather sign CC and not weaken the farm.

Speaking on the ability of Hughes, Joba and Kennedy.

Kennedy is the only real question mark. Kennedy is the only starter of the three who spent legit healty time at the big league level and did not excel. While in AAA he was fantastic. He is not quite major league ready, but what he has shown at AAA gives the Yankees alot of hope.

It's just silly to question Joba Chamberlin's durability at this stage of his career. He has been in and out of the starting rotation. While in the starting rotation though he gave the Yankees a quality start every time. Giving his team and bullpen a legit shot to win the game. At that age and that short period of time as a SP at the Major league level, it's ridiculous to question durability.

Phil Hughes has been a top prospect since he was signed. He was the ability and in 2007 showed it at the Major League level while healthy. He has since battled injuries and has not quite settled in.

Young guys need time. Take Jon Lester for example.

One cannot compare the fact that the Yankees wouldn't trade Hughes/Kennedy/Cabera last year for Santana with whether or not they should trade that package this year for Peavey. They are two completely seperate trades. One was acquireing one year of Santana and the right to negotiate with him. One is acquireing 4 years of peavey plus an option, all of which with the exception of the option are much less than what Santana, or CC will be making with their contracts. Last year the trade market for Santana was really 3 teams, Yankees, RedSox and Mets. This year for Peavey you have a lot more teams in the mix, b/c mid market teams could afford Peavey where they couldn't afford Santana. No body here is saying that that one year of Peavey is worth more than one year of Santana but what they are saying is 4+ years of Peavey at a cheaper price are worth more than Santana.

The other thing that people are forgetting is its not 2007 anymore. Last year Hughes, Kennedy, and Cabrera had more value than they do now. Hughes and Kennedy were ineffective and Hughes got injured for the second year in a row. Cabrera's stock fell as he prob won't be the yankees everyday CF anymore. Not to mention the fact that Cabrera and Hughes also ate up a another year of service time (hughes was on the ML disabled list and that counts as service time).

The other notion that Peavey's number are completely park and league inflated is a bit of a fallacy. Plenty of pitchers have made the transistion from the NL, pitchers like Pedro, Beckett, Burnett, Vasquez during the prime of their career. Petitte, Clemens and Schilling all showed that they could come back to the Al late in their career and be effective as well as a few others. Will Peavey's numbers go up with a league and park change of course, they will they would for any pitcher. Esp. considering that he likely won't have as good of a defense behind him as well. That being said he isn't going to suddently turn into a 4.00+ ERA pitcher. His numbers are so low that a .50 or .75 jump in his ERA is livable.

I think it would take Hughes/Kennedy/Jackson (not Melky) for this trade to work...and that is IF Jake will approve a trade to somewhere other than the teams he specified.

Its sounding more and more like he only wants to go to those 5 cities and be in the NL.

It is sounding like he wants to stick in the NL. However, if Towers agrees to something with the Yankees, I am pretty sure the Yankees will make a compensation offer to Peavy that is sure to entice him.

I think Yankees are more focused on working out a deal with Towers and will take care of Peavy when they reach that stage

Disagree, Chris. If they Yanks do go the Peavy route, the one thing in his favor is his cost certainty. Why would the Yankees up his contract and give up prospects rather than just sign an FA for the same money?

Oh and as for Rasmus, I don't see how the Cards could even be in the running without including him. Maybe they won't make him available, but if they do I'm pretty sure he holds more value than Jackson.

What are the Southern and Eastern leagues like, nixa? Without knowing that, minor league stats are somewhat irrelevant.

Based on the Padres' needs, this package from the Dodgers sounds like a technical fit, even if the Padres don't want to do a deal in division:

Peavy

for

CF - Xavier Paul - Speed, .843 OPS at AAA, .357 career OBP, Arm rated stronger than Matt Kemp

LHP - Scott Elbert

RHP - Jesus Castillo

C - Lucas May

Or Paul/Elbert/McDonald

Not Joe. They could start off by guaranting the 5th year option. Even with it a guaranteed 5th year at 22 mil, he is still cheap at around 16 mil a year.

Not Joe Morgan,

You're right that the league does make a difference, as does the home park a guy plays in. Unfortunately, I don't know of a place to quickly find those numbers. As far as I know, there isn't a huge difference between the two leagues, though I think I remember that the NY AA stadium does reduce power somewhat...I know at least one of their parks is known for that.

Chris,

I think its pretty likely that Peavy will ask for any team, including those he likes, to pick up the 5th year option for him to waive his NTC. What could the Yanks offer him on top of that?

Nixa: I could only find ballpark, not league as a whole. Both are pitchers parks, Schafer's seemed to really supress HRs (so much that I imagine there are other factors in play).

Nixa - I would not put it past them to pickup the 5th year option and maybe replace it with a 6th year club option. (It sounds wild but I think that it would depend on how much they actually give up for him). Also Hank Steinbrenner has been out and about saying he wanted to get Santana last year and was talked out of it and he says its a huge regret. He looks like he might be itching to do something dumb.

Not Joe - it's true that Burnett is looking for a similar contract, but I don't think you can compare the two.

I think CC plays a huge role in this. If CC is signed before a Peavy deal happens than it will change the whole dynamic of the Peavy talks.

If the Yanks were to get CC Not Joe I think the Peavy thing pretty much dies.

I think Peavy and Burnett are more comparable than one might think:

K%: 24.1% to 23.4%, Burnett
BB%: 8.3% to 9.0%, Peavy
GB%: 49.7% to 43.2%, Burnett

Why is it that people always accuse Cashmana and the Yanks for "over rating" our minor league players when in fact it's scouts and "experts" like Baseball America, etc that are the ones rating them?

If you want to accuse the Yanks for overating international signees like Igawa or maybe Miranda than maybe so since we're mostly relying on scouts to interpret what they do in a different league other than the us minor league system.

Who knows wether or not Hughes or Kennedy will ever be stars but certainly if you look at where they were drafted and what they accomplished on the minor league level, which has been nothing less than dominant, then why are we trying to hang Cashman from a tree?

Isn't a bust a player who his drafted high and then fizzles in the minors and never makes it to the majors? Or a player who after 3 or 4 years in the majors fails to realize their potential?

I'm not at all saying that Hughes or Kennedy are enoguh to land Peavy but I'm so sick of Yankee fans and especially NY media jumping on Cash just because Hughes and Kennedy haven't blossemed yet, in only 17 starts last year? Is that enough to make a decision on them?

Hughes is only 22 yrs old

07 stats
5-3 4.46 in 13 starts 72 inngs with 64 hits, 29 w, 58 so.

08 stats
0-4 6.62 8 starts, 34 inn, 43 hits, 15 walks and 23 so

total minor league stats (since drafted in 05)
28-8, 2.35 era, 310 inngs, 207 hits, 77 walks and 348 so

Prospect Rankings*
2005 - 3rd ranked organizational prospect for New York Yankees
2006 - 39th ranked Major League prospect
2006 - 1st ranked organizational prospect for New York Yankees
2007 - 4th ranked Major League prospect
2007 - 1st ranked organizational prospect for New York Yankees

*According to Baseball America
_______

Kennedy is only 24

07 stats
1-0, 1.89 era, 3 starts, 19 inngs, 13 hits, 9 walks, 15 so

08 stats
0-4, 8.17, 9 starts, 39 inngs, 50 hits, 26 walks and 27 so.

total minor league stats (since drafted in 06)

18-6, 1.99, 39 starts, 226 inngs, 150 hits, 70 walks, 248 so

Prospect Rankings*
2007 - 5th ranked organizational prospect for New York Yankees
2008 - 45th ranked Major League prospect
2008 - 4th ranked organizational prospect for New York Yankees

*According to Baseball America

PLEASE PEOPLE let's not make the same mistake that we did with Drabek, Lowell, Buhner, etc where we expect these guys to be stars in their first years and then get dissapointed when they dont, then get traded for garbage and then get mad later because we gave up on them too soon. If you want to infuse young talent into the system then you're going to have some headaches as well, especially when these guys are worried about being traded or dumped if they have two consecutively bad starts!! How can anyone say these guys have flopped when collectively they haven't pitched 30 mlb starts? I could understand if they struggled in the minors because then you know their a bust. But they've been nothing short of dominant at every level of the minors and are highly regarded y other teams as well as "experts".

I think the Braves should hold on to Rohrbough. He is a dominating lefty something in which we currently dont have on our MLB roster or close to him.

So i guess that makes the package

Hanson
Hernandez
Reyes/Morton/James
Lillibridge/B.Jones
Locke

I agree that we should hold on to Rohrbough if at all possible, but I seem him as a necessary piece in any Braves deal that doesn't include Hanson and Schafer. If we want the Padres to accept Hernandez as a substitute for Schafer, I think its going to require a prospect like Rohrbough (I don't think Locke would hold as much value to the Padres).

I know the Mets don`t have a real shot to get Peavy but if I was Omar, I`d jump in the bidding just to make life difficult for Atlanta.

I also hope if the Padres do decide to trade Peavy to ATL they go scorched earth on the Braves farm and leave nothing left.

As much as I would love to have Peavy the Padres are going to want, and SHOULD GET, the moon for him. The Yanks have tons of minor league pitching talent at the single/low A and double A levels but it's too early to tell whether or not there the real thing until they pitch at AA, AAA and majors. I think if we trade away Hughes, Kennedy, A. Jackson, and the 2 or 3 other prospects I think it would take for Peavy we would be setting ourselves back.

We should go hard after young FA's like CC, Oliver Perez and Texiera and try and infuse our young players little by little. Replace either Mussina or Pettite with Hughes this year and let him get his innings in no matter how roguh it gets. Look at how much G. Maddux, John Smoltz and Tom Glavine struggled their first 2 years in the majors.

Let Melky or Gardner work thru their problems in CF and then compete against Ajax next year or have Ajax replace Damon in LF next year. Melky was never thought to be an all-star caliber hitter but he's never been called a poor CF. If anything he's a great glove in CF. He hit .273 and drove in 73 runs as a # 8 or 9 hitter. He regressed last year but let's work with him rather than trying to dump him.

Why is it other teams work with their young players and help them develop at the major league level but the Yanks dont'/cant do it? is it because of our need to have an a;;-star name at every position or because the media demands that we win now because of who we are and what are pay roll is?

Look around the majors. How many guys took 2 or 3 years before they came into their own. Sh*t look at Bernie Williams and Roberto Kelly. How close were the Yanks in trading either one of them? Not saying that Melky has that much talent but the kid is only 24 yrs old. People forget he was only 21 when he was made the starter in '06. He was drafted at 18 and only had 3 years in the minors but posted a .296 minor league bavg. Look at his tools. Good defensively, fast with a strong arm, he may not walk much but he doesn't strike out much either (128 walks/185 strikeout in 3 years). He shows good pop and gap power. In another 2 or 3 years you might be looking at a guy who can hit .280 w/ 15 hrs and 75 rbis and give you gold glove play in the field. Keep in mind that in his first full year (07) he hit:

.273/.327/.391 with 24 dbls, 8 triples and 8 hrs. Driving in 73 rbis and 149 hits. He, like Cano, needs to draw more walks, but why can't we hire a hitting guru to work with this kid. And is really important to have a big bat vs a gold glove at CF?

"when was the last time a national league pitcher came to the american league and had success? pedro?"

I heard this Joe Nathan guy isn't too shabby.

Tim, you mean "approve" right? Not improve.

"Sh*t look at Bernie Williams and Roberto Kelly. How close were the Yanks in trading either one of them?"

Roberto Kelly was traded... for Paul O'Neil. Even though it was an unpopular move at the time it was possibly the single greatest lopsided trade in yankee history... not counting buying Babe Ruth. I think you meant Williams and Rivera. Stories from that era seem to indicate Steinbrenner was all for trading Rivera.

"I heard this Joe Nathan guy isn't too shabby."

Wasn't he an outfielder when he was traded? I though he didn't start pitching until he came to the Twins