Braves Near Peavy Deal?

I think most ALL of you are overestimating Peavy. If I pitched 16 games in PetCo my ERA would be under 4.00. Peavy has talent, but if he went to the Cubs his ERA would be around 4.00. This past season, his road ERA was around 3.80. Now factor in the following:
The NL West had 4 of the worst offenses in baseball last year: the Padres, Giants, Rockies, and Dodgers (until Manny showed up for the last 2 months). Up until Manny showed up, Peavy had a number of his starts against 3 of the worst offenses in the sport and that helped him out a lot.

If he were to come to the North Side, first of all he'd probably get injured every other month, second, he'd have to pitch in Wrigley, Citizens Bank, and Minute Maid, 3 of the most home run/hitter friendly parks in baseball.

If he's smart, he will wake up tomorrow, take that phone call from his agent, and say, "Yes, ill waive my ntc to go pitch for Bobby Cox and the Braves". Smart man.

"I think most ALL of you are overestimating Peavy."

Actually more years than not Peavy has been equally as good at home as well as on the road. Odds are once he gets established in a new field he'll still be an ace.

ramonskee, first of all they are not gunna sign dunn and abreu, they should sign abreu though, 2nd u have abreu listed as a switch hitter when he is not, 3rd its gunna b impossible to unload sori's contract (especially for a guy who became a world series/playoff hero), and lastly moving fuku is very unlikely as well, plus hes only had one year, it can take awhile to adjust to living and playing in a foreign country, u cant give up on him just yet

Should have added: if the Cubs keep the prospects and pass on Peavy, maybe this year they could get the Brian Roberts deal finally done, too?

Include Mark DeRosa with X players, and figure out what X needs to be to get McSweatervest to pull the trigger on a deal. I think Roberts would be a much bigger marginal improvement to the Cubs as a team than would trading for Peavy.

What's so special about Esco? His line from last year .288 BA, 10 hr, and 60 rbi. Good defense but he was a dropoff from what we had in Renteria before. Not that I want Renteria back but I think we are getting too caught up in "potential". Anybody remember Scott Thorman? #1 draft pick with potential, Macay McBride? #1 draft pick with potential. Both players terrible. Hell how many years was Wilson Betemit, Andy Marte, and Bruce Chen our #1 prospects? Esco has barely played over a full season and he is being called a future all-star? Jimmy Rollins was the MVP last year, Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes are both way better than Esco, hel Christian Guzman was better than him this year so we are trading the worst ss in the NL east for one of the best pitchers in all baseball and we don't want to do it. Gimme a break.

This is great,because blaine boyer has always been terrible. I think he ended up with like a 6.00 somthing era. No escobar isn't one of the braves franchise players either so why not get rid of him for "Jake Peavy". And I don't care if they get rid of prospects, as long as its not Jordan Schaffer

"If he were to come to the North Side, first of all he'd probably get injured every other month, second, he'd have to pitch in Wrigley, Citizens Bank, and Minute Maid, 3 of the most home run/hitter friendly parks in baseball. "

ACTUALLY, Wrigley Field is only "hitter-friendly" when the wind is blowing out. The first thing every player does when he gets to Wrigley is check the wind direction due to the vast impact it can have on the park. When the wind is blowing in, it can be extremely pitcher-friendly. It blew in more than out in 2008 -- I don't have the exact number but those of us that actually watch Cubs games will remember this and the players said it many times.

"haha, everyone is arguing "whether the peavy would get the braves to 85 wins, only division where 85 wins would put you in the playoffs is the pitiful nl west, a division in which even the padres after this trade still have a chance to win."
just a ridiculous statement when the world series champs came from this division. plus, it probabaly says something for the equality of the teams inside the division considering over 30% of the games played in a year are "inside" the division.

btw, blaine boyer was good until he was bobby'ed to death. his era was good and he was very effective until july when bobby literally used him every day. bobby tends to do this to at least one player per year (tyler yates the previous year). blaine boyer will be a good reliever for whoever he calls home.

Honestly I never thought Jake Peavy would be such a cry-baby about what team he wants to play for. I can understand that he wants to play for a good team if he is going to move. However, he needs to understand that the Braves have all the tools to acquire the right pieces this off-season. And what Jake needs to understand that if he agrees to his waive his NTC the Braves could easily put together one of the better rotations in the NL.

I think a lot of people seriously undervalue Escobar. Yeah, he was "only" an above average SS this season, but he just turned 26 this month and seems likely to rebound/progress. Obviously Escobar is not the type of guy who is ever going to win an MVP. He is a young SS who is a pretty good bet to develop into an ideal #2 hitter that OBPs between .380 and .390 with an OPS in the 800-830 range in his prime. If you buy Dewan's +/- numbers, he also has elite range at SS. A great fielding SS that can post those offensive numbers is incredibly valuable and Escobar's completely locked up through his prime (26-30).

I still think the Cubs are better off signing Dempster/Wood. Trading for Roberts. Signing Furcal. That is easily doable and possible. I dont know about signing Dunn and his 160 strike outs per year. But is he really a guy you want up at the plate down by 3 with the bases loaded in the 9th inning?

Furcal
Roberts
Lee
Ramirez
Soriano
DeRosa
Soto
Fukudome/Johnson

I would love that lineup and this team.

"Should have added: if the Cubs keep the prospects and pass on Peavy, maybe this year they could get the Brian Roberts deal finally done, too?"

Highly doubtful and I base this on what the O's were asking the Cleveland Indians for Roberts; Fausto Carmona and Asdrubal Cabrera. The cubs dont have anywhere near the value of those two on their roster or the farm system. Yes the cubs will be interested but I think that ship has sailed.

"Honestly I never thought Jake Peavy would be such a cry-baby about what team he wants to play for. I can understand that he wants to play for a good team if he is going to move. However, he needs to understand that the Braves have all the tools to acquire the right pieces this off-season. And what Jake needs to understand that if he agrees to his waive his NTC the Braves could easily put together one of the better rotations in the NL."

As much as you, much like many other Braves fans, want to believe this, there is no guarantee it's actually going to happen. The fact is that the Braves are currently a 4th place team, and even though they may be in a position to improve, they're also in a division featuring the latest WS champion.

You can also say the same thing about many teams, including other Peavy suitors. I mean, NY also "has all the tools to acquire the right pieces this off-season." This isn't as obvious for non-Braves fans as it is for you guys.

If I'm Peavy and I'm assessing the chances of playoffs, I have to believe that the Cubs or Yankees are probably in a better place to get there than the Braves. Atlanta lost 90 games in 08. The Yankees won 89 in a divison featuring the WS runner-ups and the Red Sox. The Cubs won 97 in the NL division which sent 2 teams to the playoffs. You can't tell me that the Braves are a better 'win now" situation than NY or Chicago.

"I think a lot of people seriously undervalue Escobar. Yeah, he was "only" an above average SS this season, but he just turned 26 this month and seems likely to rebound/progress"

Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez are both only 25 and they have been good for a couple of years. What happens when he is 30 and still not good? How long do we have to wait? You either got it or you don't, and I don't think he is a scrub but I certainly don't think he will ever go to an all-star game. There is something about him, just watching him last year he's kinda sneaky or maybe a little dirty. I think he has a bit of an attitude problem also just comes across that way to me.

"Honestly I never thought Jake Peavy would be such a cry-baby about what team he wants to play for."

Isn't that what a NTC is for?

"Yeah, he was "only" an above average SS this season, but he just turned 26 this month and seems likely to rebound/progress. "

He went from a 119 OPS+ in 2007 to a 103 OPS+ in 2008. If he is going to get back to his 2007 status, which I'm not saying he can't do, he needs to make adjustments. Defense is good though, you have to like that. Still...I think the Braves are getting a steal here.

By the way...I never bought into it before...but with this package, I'm wondering:

Is it actually possible that Hendry was letting Towers talk all he wanted about the Cubs being in this so that the Braves would give them the best possible package? I thought it was interesting how as soon as talks seemed to have stalled, the Cubs were all the sudden talking about a package centered around Vitters, which had never been said before...

Just a thought...I don't know.

I think McFail will still be asking for too much, and unless the Cubs are going to be willing to give up Vitters and Ceda, which is probably comparable to the value of what they were asking from the tribe, than its not happening.

Think about that...Vitters and Ceda for 1 year of Brian Roberts??? Thats just my guess of course...

tomfromSD,

Of course Peavy is currently better at his position that Escobar is at his. The Braves wouldn't be taking on ~60 million in salary and dealing multiple other pieces along with Escobar if he was better than Peavy. The guys you mention who are stars by 26 (David Wright, Evan Longoria, Hanley Ramirez) would never be available via trade for anyone really.

I can't imagine why you wouldn't think Escobar will be a top 5 SS in the league. He was already one of the top 8-10 this season despite his numbers dropping from last season. Among young SS, only Ramirez and Reyes are clearly ahead of him, and Escobar fits into the next tier with Hardy and Drew. Those guys have 2 years and 4 years of team control left respectively, while Escobar has 5.

As for Gorkys being an Ok CF prospect, well he was just ranked as a 4 star prospect. As a 2nd piece in a deal, he's a pretty good get. He might not project as an all star, but that's due as much to him being a great speed/defense prospect as opposed to a great offensive prospect.

Seriously man, compare this deal to what the Cubs were allegedly offering (Marshall, Pie, Cedeno, others). Marshall is a mid rotation starter with 3 years of team control, Pie is a similar prospect to Gorkys except for the year of service time and the lack of options, and Cedeno is probably not good enough to be a full time starter. No one is offering what you think is a "fair" return for Peavy...maybe your idea of fair is different than the markets.

I love Cub trades, give up junk to get all stars.

"Seriously man, compare this deal to what the Cubs were allegedly offering (Marshall, Pie, Cedeno, others)."

No one knows what the Cubs have offered. There was news that they were discussing a deal centered around Josh Vitters. If Ceda was involved, and Pie has been mentioned, I think the Cubs deal is better.

Vitters/Ceda/Pie/Marshall/Cedeno

IMHO is better than

Yunel/Hernandez/Morton/Boyner

Just my opinion, and you are welcome to have yours.

Nevermind

"I think that is clearly better than any Cubs offer that doesn't include Vitters."

Agreed.