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Cubs Rumors: Marquis, Furcal, Peavy

The Cubs re-signed Ryan Dempster yesterday; what's next?  They've got one of the game's most expensive rotations, yet could add another starter.  They're also projecting to exceed a $130MM payroll, so GM Jim Hendry will need to be creative.


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Marquis won't get traded. Nobody wants him.

I could see Sean Marshall moved to bring in that bat, or pieces to bring in that bat. The Cubs really don't have the prospects beyond Vitters and Samardijija.

I could see something involving a 3rd team and Peavy with the Braves, but I just don't see it with the Cubs. They don't have the big pieces to trade off to other teams to exchange for prospects. Derrick Lee won't net nearly enough.

$9.875 mil for a guy coming off a season where he started 28 games threw 167 innings and had a 4.53 ERA. YIKES!

1 year at 4-5 mil (Cubs eat half of his contract) is a very attractive option for teams looking to fill out their rotation. Marquis is definitely trade-able in this market. The $'s are misleading due to his contract being backloaded. Compare Marquis with other "inning eaters" like Jeff Suppan and Carlos Silva.

Marquis is a very valid trade piece at 5M per year. He's pretty much going to gaurantee you 180-200 innings of 4-5 ERA baseball.

Is he a great pitcher? No, but he is a very good #5, and could work in the #4 spot for the right team.

Kenny Rogers and Paul Byrd were signed to one year deals last offseason for 8 and 7.5 mil respectively to essentially be a Jason Marquis type.

Jon Garland will likely get a multi-year deal to be Jason Marquis.

It's about time the Cubs started talking to Furcal.

Am I the only one that thinks it would be a good idea to bring him in, move Theriot to second and DeRosa to right? Or is DeRosa too big of a liability in right on a day-to-day basis?

Derosa is an adequate RF. Actually, he's Roberto Clemente compared to the carousel of DH free agent outfielders on the market. Certainly better defensively than Abreu, Dunn, Ibanez, Burrell and possibly Bradley.

I like the idea of Furcal because he would be a huge upgrade defensively and move Theriot to his natural position; however, this myth of moving Soriano down in the lineup is overblown. The Cubs were 2nd in the league in scoring runs and Soriano batting leadoff wasn't the reason they got embarassed in the playoffs.

"The Cubs were 2nd in the league in scoring runs and Soriano batting leadoff wasn't the reason they got embarassed in the playoffs."

I agree with you for the most part, but Soriano flailing at breaking balls low and away over and over had a lot to do with it the last two years...and batting leadoff gets him more at bats than anyone.

So, while its not the only reason, it certainly added to it. If he hit even like he did in the regular season, I would be fine with it. But teams bear down on him and give him little to nothing to hit in the playoffs, and just throw breaking stuff out of the zone. Soriano swings anyway...its ugly. Something has to change with him...just MHO.

Soriano is a roller coaster. Extreme highs and lows. He could just as easily hit the hot streak come the 2009 playoffs. Pitchers don't pitch him any differently in the playoffs. The scouting report is there. It's a matter of him laying off the crap, which he does when he's in the previously mentioned hot streaks.

As a fan, all I can ask for is they make the playoffs consistently every year. One of those years it'll click. So far, they still look to be 10 games better than anybody else in the NL Central. Can't complain.

"Jon Garland will likely get a multi-year deal to be Jason Marquis."

I was thinking this exact thing. Garland is basically the same quality pitcher than Marquis is, and I promise you that someone will sign him for like 3/30 and think it's a good deal, when they could've traded for Marquis and his 1/5 (Assuming the Cubs eat money) contract without giving up more than a fringe solid prospect.

To scribblestone:

Marquis can be a solid pitcher, just that his problem is that he always does awful when he has one bad inning...Other than that hes a legit pitcher who can hit!

I actually think they do pitch Sori a little differently in the playoffs. I think he sees more strikes in the regular season...

i think they do too. i don't think he saw one first pitch fastball in the playoffs, whereas people do that all the time in the regular season.

i'm not sold on derosa in right every day, i'd rather he stay at second, have furcal play short and have theriot on the bench. sounds like they're going to fill right field on the cheap, which i'm fine with. not that i'm crazy about teahan (i'd prefer hermida or luke scott) but just like some of us are saying pie needs a change of scenery, maybe teahan's the same way. i also think fukudome will rebound somewhat.

melonis, you're wrong about nobody wanting Marquis. Wait until the big names are gone from the free agent market and some teams are left without a starter that they need. The Cubs will certainly have to eat some salary but he wasn't bad in '08 and wasn't terrible in '07. I can envision plenty of teams who think they'll be contenders willing to spend $5-7 million on him, especially since they won't have to give much back in the way of prospects.

"Marquis is a very valid trade piece at 5M per year. He's pretty much going to gaurantee you 180-200 innings of 4-5 ERA baseball.

Is he a great pitcher? No, but he is a very good #5, and could work in the #4 spot for the right team."

Pretty big difference between that 4 or 5 era.

If he's your #4, you've got problems.

Statistically speaking that is, a number 4 starter with a 5 era isn't a good thing to say the least.


Soriano crushes bad pitchers, and looks embarrasing against good pitchers.

This is a very big reason why he struggles and will continue to struggle in the playoffs.

This follows for a lot of the Cubs hitters. They simply aren't good enough hitters to do well against other team's #1 and #2 starters.

"Pretty big difference between that 4 or 5 era.

If he's your #4, you've got problems.

Statistically speaking that is, a number 4 starter with a 5 era isn't a good thing to say the least."

Statistically speaking, his ERA+ indicates league average pitcher, which is what a #4 is.

"This follows for a lot of the Cubs hitters. They simply aren't good enough hitters to do well against other team's #1 and #2 starters."

The Cubs beat a lot of Aces and #2s during the regular season. I think this is the case with Soriano, but the Cubs weren't playing #3s, 4s, and 5s all year long.

"Statistically speaking, his ERA+ indicates league average pitcher, which is what a #4 is."

His ERA+ was slightly below league average. His peripherals were borderline terrible in some cases.

1.45 whip, < 50% gb rate, 91/70 k/bb

If you're penciling in Jason Marquis as you're #4, you're not making the post season.

Then again, this is all about whether or not he can be traded, which I agree he could be assuming some money changed hands.

I agree. He is a league average pitcher that will give you league average numbers, and eat 180 to 210 innings for you. Thats worth something if the Cubs will eat 3 to 4 mil.

"Soriano crushes bad pitchers, and looks embarrasing against good pitchers.

This is a very big reason why he struggles and will continue to struggle in the playoffs. "

Once again, wrong. Very unscientific, but here his statistics from some of the top ERA leaders in baseball last season against Soriano lifetime:

Sabathia: 1.248 OPS
Peavy: 1.600 OPS
Hamels: .799 OPS
Haren: 1.235 OPS

Again, very unscientific, but there is no evidence to suggest that Soriano is drastically different from other players. Like every player in baseball, he'll hit worse against great pitchers.

Soriano playing poorly in the playoffs is part playing tight, but mostly by chance. As for ONLY facing #1's and 2's in the playoffs. That's ridiculous considering only half of the pitchers the Cubs face in the last 2 playoff series' were considered #1-2 (Lowe, Billingsley, and Webb). According to your theory, Soriano should have still smashed Doug Davis, Livan Hernandez, and Hiroki Kuroda.

Agreed that Marquis is likely not a #4 on a playoff team, although he would have been a #4 on the Brewers last year. However, he doesn't need to be traded to a playoff team. This is the offseason, not the trading deadline.

In addition,
Marquis would have been a good #5 on a number of contending NL teams like the Phillies, Mets, Astros, Brewers, D'Backs. Sometimes the difference between a 80 ERA+ pitcher and a 99 ERA+ pitcher in 32 starts is the difference between making the postseason and sitting at home.

"This follows for a lot of the Cubs hitters. They simply aren't good enough hitters to do well against other team's #1 and #2 starters."

quite possibly the most misinformed thing I've read on this site regarding the cubs haha.

Teetz put it pretty well. The cubs absolutely CRUSHED the pitcher that was regarded as the best in the NL the second half (Sabathia). I really wish more people would go and look up stats before stating their misinformed opinions.

"Soriano playing poorly in the playoffs is part playing tight, but mostly by chance. As for ONLY facing #1's and 2's in the playoffs. That's ridiculous considering only half of the pitchers the Cubs face in the last 2 playoff series' were considered #1-2 (Lowe, Billingsley, and Webb). According to your theory, Soriano should have still smashed Doug Davis, Livan Hernandez, and Hiroki Kuroda."

I'm not sure how much credit I give Fox broadcasting, but during the playoffs they were talking about Soriano's inability to hit low and away. He chases bad pitches and couldn't hit the strikes. His poor performance was a combination of better pitching and extensive scouting/execution of game plan.

Teets and Aduncaroo,

You guys can throw stats at me all day long, but what I have seen with my eyes over the past two years certainly suggests otherwise.

Soriano is one of the least disciplined hitters in baseball. He may as well be Cerrano from Major League. Fastball and nothing else.

Why any pitcher in baseball throws him a fastball is beyond my comprehension.

Kenan and Kel,

Fine, maybe it's pitchers who are most able to execute a gameplan rather than #1-#2 pitchers. In any case, Soriano is disgusting to watch in the playoffs. Completely overmatched at all times.

tfsmagCubs,

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore;_ylt=AsmwojDKJ00Kj0WJ3G7FF6.FCLcF?gid=280928108

didn't crush sabathia here did they. please check stats before calling other people dumba$$es for not checking stats.

also, i wouldn't call this getting absolutetly crushed

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore;_ylt=An_HzUwU8UhYujLqqyEe6CiFCLcF?gid=280916116

nor would i call this absolutetly getting crushed either.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore;_ylt=AghYkOxhWXsNTf6nM35GlTiFCLcF?gid=280728108

mmontice,

the third game you posted CC gave up 9 hits and 4 runs over 6 and 2/3's

the second game you posted, gave up 9 hits and 4 runs in 7.

Only in the first game you posted did he look anything like a league leading ace against the cubs. Maybe CRUSHED was the wrong term, but compared to how the other teams he faced fared, I think crushed is a fair term.

I would consider moving Theriot to CF if Furcal can be signed to play SS.

They could keep Pie and Fukudome as backup outfielders thru June and trade Cedeno, Marshall and Hart (maybe Fontenot) for Roberts.

DeRosa plays mostly RF, 2B, 3B and 1B, Fukudome and Pie play right and center.

Theriot plays mostly CF, SS and 2B.

Furcal and Roberts at the top of the line-up would be fantastic!

also, i didn't call anyone a dumbass... all i can tell by your post is that you went and looked up a score and didn't look at how CC actually pitched in those last two games.

last post to mmontice - the "I really wish more people would go and look up stats" comment wasn't aimed at how the cubs specifically did against Sabathia anyway. It was geared at your false assumption that the cubs were impotent aginst #1 and #2 pitchers.

mmontice,

What stats did I throw at you that you don't believe? I said the same thing you did...that in the playoffs, Soriano looks horrendous and swings at every breaking ball low and away, and that batting him in the 1 hole, where he gets more at bats than anyone else, is a dumb thing to do.

I can definitely agree that both Soriano and Ramirez looked horrendous in the playoffs.

tfsmagCubs,

either personally or on tv, i watch at least parts to close to 100 cubs games per year. so when i speak about the Cubs i generally go by what i see rather than raw stats. other teams, sure i'll look up stats before i start writing my opinion.

also, sure there are times when they get to #1 and #2 pitchers. there are always outliers.

adding to that, maybe i shouldn't have made a blanket statement about the cubs, but i definitely do feel that soriano looks like crap against pitchers who actually know how to pitch. my inclusion of the rest of the team may just be due to the fact that my most recent memories of the Cubs was against the Dodgers pitching staff, where they got absolutetly smoked.

ultimately, over the past two years, when it has really mattered, they Cubs have looked really pathetic when it has mattered---the playoffs.

tfsmagCubs,

those are games he didn't all that great in. Crushed should be saved for outings far worse than the ones pasted above. like either of these two:

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore;_ylt=AulgfCz1uNQA2GPKBKtiQgOFCLcF?gid=280416105

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore;_ylt=AlX849CyP9zH8iQGIpnO_eSFCLcF?gid=280411105

can't disagree with you on your last post mmontice. I also watch 100+ games a year of the cubs, and they look like a different team during the regular season than when in the playoffs.

I remember watching games all summer long, and every time we played at wrigley I had alot of confidence that we'd win no matter who we were playing. On the road, still pretty confident, but not as much so. We definitely got to our fair share of #1 and #2 pitchers though.

If we can't pick up any better hitting options in this off season, we may end up seeing the 3rd installment of the cubs shitting the bed in October.

"I'm not sure how much credit I give Fox broadcasting, but during the playoffs they were talking about Soriano's inability to hit low and away. He chases bad pitches and couldn't hit the strikes. His poor performance was a combination of better pitching and extensive scouting/execution of game plan."

When Soriano is hot, he spits on those pitches low and out of the strike zone and eventually gets a good pitch to hit. His inability to hit low and outside pitches is a more myth than fact. He hit .251 on strikes low and away, .358 on strikes out and mid. By the way, hitting .251 on pitches low and away is pretty good for a RH hitter(Pujols hits .220 on low and away pitches...Manny hit .229).

The only pitch Soriano consistently has trouble hitting is the high fastball. .237/.241/.173 from inside to outside. The problem is, pitchers often make mistakes with the fastball and leave it too low. When hot, as all hot hitters do, Soriano sees the ball well enough to not swing at garbage. He'll still be very aggressive, but he'll be in good counts hitting strikes. The numbers everybody is basing their "Soriano can't hit good pitchers theories" on is 28 postseason at bats. There are much higher sample sizes out there.

*source: Inside Edge hitting zone

Simple answer to the question "Can Cubs hit good pitching"

2nd most runs in baseball. Good pitching was scattered somewhere in those 162 games. Of course they can hit good pitching.

I do think using 6 games in the postseason is not nearly using a proper or fair sample size.

Teetz, is your source there saying that he hits .251 on pitches that are on the low and away part of the STRIKE ZONE? If so...thats not what I'm even arguing. I'm saying that he swings at pitches low and away that are nowhere NEAR the strikezone.

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