Keith Law's Top 50 Free Agents

I wonder how much of Dunn's new contract Law will be getting. As soon as Law gets over his Utley man crush he will be proclaiming Dunn the most valuable player on the planet. "Just look at that VORP!! Look at the VORP!!"

Law is the best baseball analyst out there right now, bar none. Also, this line deserves some love:

"Sheets' natural habitat is the disabled list."

Burnett is this year's Barry Zito, you heard it here first. He will bust. His wild swings back and forth smell like an $18M per year contract but a 14-12 record with a 4.4 ERA.

MVPujols,

Maybe you should actually check the stats you make fun of from now, so you don't look quite as ignorant. Dunn just barely cracked the top 100 in VORP, ranking 98th, right between Marlon Byrd and Ty Wiggington. The top 5 in VORP last season were Pujols, Hanley, Chipper, Berkman, and David Wright in that order...looks like it does a pretty good job to me.

Burnett's ERA+ last season was 105. He was barely over league average. At 31. Plus, he has a long injury history.
Lowe's ERA+ last season was 131. He's also never been on the DL in his career.
Yes, Lowe is 4 years older, but since Lowe is a sinker ball pitcher, he doesn't rely on pure velocity to pitch. Burnett does. If you sign either pitcher for a 4 year deal, Lowe is the better option.

Yeah, I thought 98th seemed a little too low. Thanks for pointing that out. Still, as you mentioned, Dunn couldn't crack the top 50. The big, bad VORP monster thinks he's a very good, but certainly not elite, offensive player, which is what most reasonable people seem to think.

DB -
I'm not arguing with you, simply stating what is a pretty obvious reason as to why Burnette could fetch more than Lowe. You think many of the FO executives would actually go so far as to do research before they made an offer? Please...

"Could you ask Law to take his rankings out to 150? For us Twins fans? Thanks -"

Sympathy laugh. Well played.

"maybe Mr Law doesn't get into the BBWA because he's such a condascending SOB. Same reason some players don't get into the HOF."

Bill Conlin says hi.

I think a lot of people hate the Phillies current prospects. Not that it matters all that much right now given the title.

I think Keith is one of the few credible guys that ESPN still pays.

"Burnett is this year's Barry Zito, you heard it here first. He will bust. His wild swings back and forth smell like an $18M per year contract but a 14-12 record with a 4.4 ERA."

I'm not saying you are wrong....but

1. His stuff is way, way better than Zito's is, especially after Zito lost his velocity on the fastball.

2. He just put up a 4 era in the AL east...just saying.

I still kind of like Lowe better too...and for that matter, I might rather take a chance on Sheets, who is better than both of them when healthy and will likely get a smaller contract. You just can't put more than one high upside but injury prone pitcher in your rotation...like the Cubs for instance. Harden and Sheets/Burnett don't mix well...but a Dempster/Lowe guy would be perfect.

Every team has a ton of names you can list but the Phillies still don't have a single high-upside, high probability player. There's not some massive conspiracy to keep the Phillies minor league rankings down, its just how the analysts (pretty much across the board) see it.

(Doesn't Berry sort of remind you of someone, atleast minor league profile wise. If he brings you guys back another stud reliever, that would be pretty nice.)

Carrasco could be very nice, but I don't remember any recent reports that have him pegged as a 1/2. If they're out there, maybe I missed them. Taylor, sure, maybe, but he's hardly a high probability bet at this point. What I'm saying is you can take the top prospect (or top few) in most systems and, with pretty high certainty, say you wouldn't trade them for any single Phillies prospect and so on down the list. Just go to BA right now and look at the AL East. Jackson for Carrasco (or whoever you'd call #1) maybe, the other 4 (Wieters, Anderson, Price, Snider), no chance.

(Re: Berry is 23 and just put up a .069 isoP. He has 6 HRs in over 1,000 minor league PAs. How could that possibly remind you of Victorino or Rollins? You don't see him as a Bourn again version of a certain other former Phillie?)

oh and victorino was never a big HR hitter until this year vs CC. That's why i didn't catch the comparison and also I have higher aspirations for Berry than Bourn.