Looking Beyond Varitek

Jeff Mathis and/or Mike Napoli are not being shopped. With the type of output Napoli put last year, he isn't going anywhere.

Let me add the disclaimer: unless a deal knocks the Angels socks off

So basically what Silverman is saying is that just about everyone is making their catchers available to the Red Sox. All they have to do is trade one of their 3 best prospects. For the likes of nearly all of those guys, I'll pass if that's the price.

V-Mart can NOT be available. He is the leader of our team beyond question. Not only our best hitter, he is the glue in the clubhouse. Any Tribe fan will tell you, Vic is gold, he wont go. I would love to see them keep Shopp, also. Its such a good position to have a capable backup to keep Vic fresh--so valuable.

Varitek's contributions to the Red Sox have always been his pitcher management and defense. His offense was never that great, but it's true it's hard to ignore what he did(n't) do last season.

However, if the Sox go after a new C, expect the team ERA to move northward a few ticks. I'd say C and the left side of the infield contribute more to team ERA than most people realize, and a move chasing an improvement in OPS at one position can hurt the team more than one realizes.

That said, I don't know what the Sox should do to replace Tek. Anyone know any FA Cs that have a rep for great game calling (other than Tek)?

I'm guessing Silverman basically went to MLB team pages and found interesting names from a bunch of teams.

Here is my opinion:
Jeff Mathis- pass
Mike Napoli- price too high
Brian Schneider- no thanks Miguel Montero- pass
John Buck- pass
Ramon Hernandez-could probably not have to give up a pitching prospect-O's want to bring up Wieters
Bengie Molina-very good but price will be too high
Carlos Santana- should focus on music career
Kelly Shoppach- a reuion, possibly
Victor Martinez-would love to have his offense, not defense. who would the Indians rather trade? Both of them did well with C. Lee last year, C.C. and Carmona 2 years ago
Jesus Flores- price too high Kenji Johjima- if we could get him without Masterson, Buckholz, or Anderson, sure. Would work well with Dice-K, but not good with Seattle's staff last 2 years.
Jeff Clement- price too high Yorvit Torrealba- not a bad move. wouldnt want to give up a starter for him though...

It would be helpful for the Sox if they could resign Tek as a backup/mentor for whatever replacement catcher they bring in. However, he wants to start.

A question, would the Red Sox have any interest in the Pirates switch-hitting catcher Ryan Doumit?

His line in 2008 was .318/.357/.501 in 431 ABs. He was also a Mr. Clutch for us; his line with RISP was .407/.430/.602.

I wouldnt give up Masterson or Anderson for anyone on that list aside from MAYBE Martinez but even then, I would only give up Anderson IF there was Martinez and a prospect coming back the other way AND I would only give up Anderson if I signed Teixeira to a long term deal.

Hows this for a trade, IF the red sox sign Tex.

Lars Anderson
Mike Lowell
Jed Lowrie

to Cleveland for

Victor Martinez
Johnny Peralta
+ pitching prospect

Heh,,, :)

As a Mets fan, I would love to pry away Lowrie or Masterson. I don't have any dilusions that we could possibly do so for just Schneider though. Perhaps they could work on a larger deal.

cubby fan.. it looks like this nonsense will never end.

it's just a diff person in a diff thread.

oy. my brain.

CSL - the org is not sold on kottaras. when acquired he was top 5 prospects now he's 31st.

i also think they are concerned about his k rate... 25%+- in AAA. i doubt that would translate well to mlb.

also CSL - there are 2 guys in the org ranked higher than kottaras... exposito and wagner.

exposito is 21 and only in lancaster

wagner is 24 and in AA.. mlb comparision to brad ausmus

"My argument is (mostly) about pitcher management. The Sox pitchers all rave about Tek's prep before the game - he knows the tendencies of all the opposing bats as well as those on the bench. Like a QB, he's a great game caller."

And yet his pitchers do no better with him out there than with Doug M., Kevin Cash, etc.

"As far as throwing people out, that's not the only indicator of a C's ability on D. Fielding bunts, plays at the plate, etc. are all equally if not more important. Stolen bases can equally be a comment about the pitching staff as the cather - Dice-K's delivery in particular is easy to run on."

Fair enough.

"In fact, the complaint about I-Rod during his glory years was that he was so focused on throwing runners out, he never focused on the batter in the box or the pitcher and his game calling suffered as a result."

Once again for comparison, Pudge's CERA and then team ERA.

1992: 3.81, 4.09
1993: 4.16, 4.28
1994: 5.22, 5.45
1995: 4.76, 4.66
1996: 4.73, 4.66
1997: 4.77, 4.68
1998: 4.92, 5.00
1999: 4.94, 5.07
2000: 5.35, 5.52
2001: 5.71, 5.71

I think that goes far enough to illustrate that Pudge was pretty good at letting up less runs per game (by about 0.10 ERA). Since he was such a "bad game caller," what else can you attribute that to besides defense? I still have yet to see anything to measure a good game caller other than someone telling me he is one (which is completely arbitrary) and everything I've seen points to catchers not having any effect on pitcher production by how good they are at calling a game.

"It's no coincidence that he has the record for caught no-no's."

Yes it is.

It is absurd to say that Lars place on the Red Sox is foreited if they manage to sign Tex. Lars would just be transitioned over to replace Ortiz at DH. That is not to say they wouldn't use him as a valuable trade chip, but he has more use than just a 1st baseman.

if the Angels are stupid enough to trade away Mike Napoli, they DESERVE to have Mathis as their full-time catcher.

that being said, i doubt they're both being shopped. i could see Mathis being traded, but his value is low right now.

"It's no coincidence that he has the record for caught no-no's."

Yes it is.
----
Varitek holds the record of 4. He would have had 5 if Schilling didn't shake him off. Schilling says that himself.

Personally, I hope they sign Tek to 2 yrs, bring on Salty and have Tek teach him everything he knows.

CERA is possibly one of the worst and most useless "stats" i've seen.

my CERA would be pretty good if i was catching pedro, schilling, beckett, lester, dice-k and so on and so on.

however, the 'no hitter' argument is even worse.

Also...

"Since you bring up CERA, I'd point out Varitek has the fourth highest-ranked CERA of all catchers since 1990: http://bb_catchers.tripod.com/catchers/cera1.htm"

Is pointless because if I was out there catching the best pitchers in baseball, my CERA would be most likely better than a lot of very good catchers catching crappy pitchers even though I know absolutely nothing about how to call a game.

(I think that was the point you were making though)

I'm using CERA in comparison to the rest of his team, to show that CERA fluxtuates back and forth, game calling ability is not an ability that effects the pitching staff in any measurable way, and Jason Varitek has not (over the last decade) made his team any better in the least than when he isn't out there. I think that speaks volumes not about him but about that "ability."

In addition I was a journalism major and just spelled fluctuates incorrectly and am now horribly embarrassed.

:)

Kottaras only threw out 18.75% of BR's last year in AAA, not sure if that's the guy the Red Sox want behind the dish everyday (or even half of them), especially in the somewhat speedy AL East.

His numbers are a bit intriguing, but I'm not sure he's more than a Dave Ross type with much worse defense.

Cubby:

The argument is CERA is a meaningless statistic over the course of a season for a player but is a good indicator over a career for how good a player is (like W% for SP or BABIP for a batter (and yes, a select few batters maintain a high BABIP throughout their career)). Varitek's numbers on the link I listed are normalized to subtract the CERA of other catchers on the team and team ERA over the course of his career. I wouldn't say Damian Miller, Ramon Hernandez, or Mike Piazza had the most dominant pitching staff in their careers (though they were quite good), and they're the only ones ranking higher than Tek.

The argument is going to be circular however, because I can argue the pitcher's effectiveness is a measure of both his defense and his catcher and you can argue the catcher (or the defense or both) don't matter. It's a chicken and egg argument. I could argue most pitchers don't live up to their expectations when they join the Yankees not because of "the pressure" but because of a subpar defensive infield behind them (and I'm a huge Jeter fan). As a stat geek (science major, fantasy player) it would be easy to discount the effect of a catcher on defense on a pitcher, but I don't think stats tell the whole story. The Rays are excited about Brignac and hesitant to trade him not because of his bat, but because they expect the team ERA to drop half a point with him at short. More teams should craft their rosters that way.

EWS:

Yes, I'm arguing that Varitek's effect on his team includes him being the equivalent of a great pitching coach, telling the pitcher which pitch throw 100 times a game. The fact that the Sox have a pitching coach doesn't take away from that.

In addition, I don't understand what your argument is. Do you not think catchers have an effect on team ERA or pitchers' success? I agree CERA can be weak, but just because something can't be statistically proven does that mean it doesn't exist? Your only contribution to this conversation so far is "catching no hitters means nothing" which isn't really a contribution. Plus, I'd bet most pitchers and pitching coaches in the game would disagree with you.

For full disclosure, I am a die hard Yankees fan and Jason Varitek is the player I most despise on the Red Sox. But I'll still give him his propers. Would you rather I go to the CC page and make "the Yanks should trade Melky and Igawa" or "the Yanks are going to sign CC, Sheets, AJ, Tex, and Manny" arguments, while making fun of Sox fans? Does that fit your stereotype better?

I'm trying to debate baseball strategy and policy here. Go somewhere else.

cdg - i think my comments were taken a little too seriously so i apologize if i came off as aggressive.

we've been debating the varitek thing for a while and i've been discussing it for like 2 years in different forums so i guess its a little tired to me.

as a person who watches the red sox everyday i simply have a tough time buying what everyone is selling.

and you dont strike me as a typical self-righteous, winning-is-a-birth-right, arrogant, loud yankee fan ;)

happy thanksgiving

For clarification that is my stance, I think game calling probably has a little effect on things (just as clutch might a tad) but the result is so negligable and varying that tracking it (or paying $$ for it) is a waste of time and energy.

131 games
146 men in scoring position
26 rbi's
120 men LOB
.175 avg. with men in scoring position
C on his chest does not stand for CLUTCH that's for sure.

The only one on that list worth exploring is Victor Martinez and not if it would mean giving up Lars Anderson which I assume it would

The Sox are smarter than people give them credit for and they know that catcher isn't as important as all of us make it out to be if you can perform at a high level everywhere else. Don't get me wrong, I do see the value of having a good catcher, I even played catcher through high school in Division 1 and consider myself to be a good catcher, but I think Tex has to be top priority and they can't be worried about catcher until he is signed. If the Sox could sign Tex they would have Youk, Tex, Ortiz, and Bay, in no particular order as the heart of the lineup. Plus having MVP Pedroia and Drew, and the potential of Ellsbury and Lowrie. Therefore it really wouldn't matter if they didn't have a great hitter in the nine spot. I think the best bet is to try TO get a young promising catcher ie, Salty or Teagarden, but not if it means giving up Bucholz, and bringing back Tek for two more years to help with the prgression of not only the young catcher but also, Masterson, Buchholz, and Bowden. They don't need a superstar right now. If one came along and at the right price, fine, but they would be perfectly fine with the captain back behind the plate in 09