Odds and Ends: Blue Jays, Dodgers, Dunn

I think the market for Dunn will begin to develop after it becomes clearer where Teixeira is going.

Other than Tex and Manny, Dunn is probably the best power threat available, and some team will bite because of his talents. I think some teams are also hesitant because there is an abundance of cheaper options on the market for power hitting 1B/OF types: Teixeira, Dunn, Giambi, Abreu, Burrell, Manny, Bradley, etc.

Once some of those guys sign, Dunn's high OBP and power will become appealing enough to someone, even if that's all he offers.

No wonder it's eirly quiet. I hear that Dunn doesn't even like playing baseball.

After the nationals fail to sign tex the will jump on dunn so fast he won't know what hit him.

I want to say that Dunn will go to Washington, but there is just no room for him there.

They already have Johnson, Milledge, Dukes, Willingham, Kearns, Pena and Young to fill the three outfield spots and first base, they really just have no room for him.

Even if they deal Nick Johnson, they'll likely go with Willingham at first and an outfield of Kearns, Milledge and Dukes. I just don't think it would be a logical move, although Bowden will likely ponder making the move anyways.

By the way tbk104, I wasn't calling you out or anything. I just agree with everything you said. I was only adding my 2c.

L8r.

Please Dodgers, DO SOMETHING!!
We are going to miss out on everyone.

Adam Dunn equation:
bad economy + bad baseball player = lack of interest.

As far as the Washingotn Nationals go, when did logic get in the way of Jim "Leathrepants" Bowden doing the right thing?

After him talking about bringing big name players in, like Texieiera and then missing out on them, he is going to have to get a "name" guy. With Dunn being a "name" and, more importantly, an ex-Reds player, it makes perfect sense for Bowden to sign Dunn, even if the Nationals already have six Outfielders.

If I had to rank the 1B/OF FAs defensively, here's how it would go.

Teixeira

---HUGE DROP---

Dunn (please put him at 1B), and he gets closer to the drop wall)
Burrell
Manny
Abreu
Giambi

(left Bradley off b/c injury concerns should relegate him to DH).

I wonder if the Mets can pry Dukes away from the Nats.

scribbletone, I agree that the Giants may make a play for Dunn after the Tex derby plays out, but other teams will then jump in and offer more money. Plus, Dunn may not be wild about Phone Booth Park because he knows it swallows up his moonshots like no other park does.

I think in the end, other teams will outbid the Giants for Tex and Dunn, and the team will then be left with figuring out if they want to go with Ishi/Phelps for 1B and Sandoval for 3B, or perhaps make a play for someone like Beltre for 3B and go with Sandoval for 1B.

Much of it may spin around whether or not they get a real upgrade at SS like Furcal, and we should know about that by the middle of next week.

Just a heads up to people outside of Toronto, don't take stories by the Toronto Sun as scripture. It's about half a step up from the National Enquirer, and they will contort a quote whatever way they can to sell papers. Team that with JP who has proven he'll outright lie, and there's not much to this story. Look to the National Post, Globe and Mail, or Toronto Star for a legitimate story.

As far as budget, Rogers has about enough money to buy every significant free agent on the market, so don't worry about the econonmy. Fact is, when Rogers announced the initial 20-30 mill$ increase to the payroll, JP had the team making TONS of money each year. I believe they've been loosing money the last 3 years, so don't look for Ted to approve a long term deal for JP (if you get my drift).

Scribbletone,

If Pitchers were good enough to be able to throw Strikes over the outer third of the plate consistantly, Dunn WOULDN'T hit 40 Home Runs a year and his On Base Percentage wouldn't be .380.

Dunn can only hit Fast Balls and Change Ups that are located between the upper thigh and the belt and from the middle of the plate in. He can't do very much with any other pitch and he absolutely can not hit a Slider to save his life.

The reason Dunn Walks 100 times a year and Strikes Out 160+ times a year is because Pitchers try and pitch him outside. When they have good control and can consistantly throw Strikes out there, Dunn gets Struck Out. When they don't have good control, Dunn Walks. Plain and simple.

Pitchers get in trouble when they think they have Dunn set up for a Fast Ball and they throw one over the middle of the plate. THAT is what he is ALWAYS looking for and that is what he hits for his Home Runs.

As far as the argument that Pitchers are scared of Dunn, not true. If they were TRULY scared of Dunn they would Intentionally Walk him more but they don't.

2008 MVP winner Albert Pujols Walked a total of 104 times and led the NL with 34 IBB's. Manny Ramirez was in the NL for a total of 53 Games and Walked a total of 35 times. Of those, 16 were of the Intentional kind.

Adam Dunn? He led all of MLB with 122 Walks and only 13 of those were IBB's.

If you have watched Dunn for any amount of time then you will know this is true because you will be SOOOOOO frustrated that he is taking hittable Strikes over the outer half of the plate. You will also know this after you have watched Dunn take NUMEROUS Pitches for called third Strikes and then watch as he walks back to the dugout with that goofy look on his face.

I think Dunn at four years $52 million is a better value than Manny at two years $50 million...

Scribbletone, agreed about Beltre and 1B for the Giants. For entertainment value though, I'd like to see what would happen if the Giants threw a wrench in the Angels/Yankees/Red Sox plans by offering Tex 6/$140 million, and at least made all of them work for it.

The irony here is that if the money was almost equal, the Giants would also have a shot at CC, for about 6/$140 million as well. But to play in both sandboxes, they'd have to move Rowand's salary and probably Molina/Winn's as well just so they could reload a little with someone who wants to play there, like Burrell.

Having said that, I'd prefer they:

a) Grab Beltre and sign Furcal to firm up the left side;

b) Go cheap with Burriss/Frandsen for 2B and Sandoval/Ishi for 1B;

c) Move Rowand in a salary dump and put Winn in CF;

d) Sign Burrell for RF.

Sure, it's an extra $30 million in payroll less Rowand's salary movement, but there are no long-term commitments added here but a lot of short-term power improvements.

"Dunn can only hit Fast Balls and Change Ups that are located between the upper thigh and the belt and from the middle of the plate in. He can't do very much with any other pitch and he absolutely can not hit a Slider to save his life."

This type of characteristic regarding a batter's comfort zone is always pretty funny to me.
Most batters (other than M. Ramirez, Vlad guererro reggie jackson and VERY few other power hitters have large power zones and the ones that are FB only (Jason Bay is this way also) is pretty common also amongst HR hitters. Why? because a pitcher cannot always get ahead with the off speed pitch and a good power hitter is supposed to make them pay with that mistake pitch. Key, is hitting the 1st mistake out and that is the rarity for guys like Dunn and Bay and there is -0- wrong with having a small power zone, especially when he does not chase pitches he knows are not in his zone.

I think Dunn would be a great fit for the A's at DH should they miss out on Furcal. I don't know if they have the money to sign him but how great would it be to have him hit behind Holliday. With Chavez back I think they could be a contender Rock.

Also, it doesn't matter that Dunn played in a small park. His home runs are among the longest in the game.

To you haters out there, ie. Buck Henry, the Sox will walk away with Tex and from what I'm hearing from my inside sources they are preparing to make the offer by next week somewhere in the range of 7 years/ 175 mil. FYI the Giants wish they could come close to "throwing a wrench" in the plans of the Sox/Yanks/and in this case Angels. They don't have the cash. Nothing they could do could be worse then what the Sox and Yanks will do to each other. My prediction though is once the dust settles the Sox walk away with Tex, Yanks walk away with C.C. and Angels with Manny.

Which brings me to my next point. Anyone who ranks Dunn or any other free agent bat (with the possible exception of Tex) higher then Manny or even says Dunn is a better deal then Manny is out of their minds. Did you guys not see what Manny did for the Dodgers this year? Why do you think he wouldn't be able to do it for anyone else. The guy hit almost .400 after the trade and I could be wrong but I'm pretty sure that if you compare a .400 batting average with a .400 obs you would probably want the average. Especially someone who can also hit 40 homers and not strikeout 200 times. You guys are nuts. Manny is one of the greatest right-handed hitters in the history of the game.
And you want to compare him to Adam Dunn? unbelievable.

Just so you guys know not all Reds fans are so down on ex-reds! Just watch clips from some of Adam Dunn's home runs, most of them would be out in ANY park. I guarantee you the park does NOT increase his power numbers by 28%. Freaking ridiculous.

Bit of a type when I said split for home and career home runs. Meant to say home and away career home runs, although I'm sure you can tell that.

Dunn's lack of attention is odd seeing how much you hear Ibanez's name being thrown around. Dunn has quality and age on him. I don't understand why the Braves aren't jumping on him instead of the idiotic Ludwick talks. Dunn can at least be counted on for some SLG.

richphillies,

Look at the Adam Dunn fans and how they are arguing for him. Do you see that the most mentioned thing is the distance of his Home Runs? Hell, even you yourself used that to argue for him.

What this tells me (and what I have seen from watching Dunn for eight years) is that with his power, if he were to swing the bat more, he would be able to hit more Home Runs.
However, because he WONT swing at pitches over the outer third of the plate, he hasn't hit as many Home Runs as he could have.

If you look at Ryan Howard's stats, most of his Home Runs go to either Center Field or Left Centerfield. If you look at Dunn's stats, most of his Home Runs go to Right Field and Right Centerfield, meaning he is pulling almost everything.

To confirm this, just watch how opposing Defenses put the Infield shift on against him. By NOT swinging at outside pitches, Dunn is taking away at least 1/3 of the ball park. This reduces his chances to get Hits and, with his power, reduces his opportunites for Home Runs. Both of these things reduce his RBI opportunites.

So, when Dunn does NOT swing at a hittable pitch, a pitch he COULD hit out of the ball park and takes it in hopes of getting a meat pitch (which might never come), he is giving up an opportunity.

By taking the pitch and then getting the Walk, his opportunity cost is a Home Run.

Now, if we were talking about a guy like Norris Hopper, a fast guy who has one Home Run in 396 career At Bats or if we were talking about most Pitchers, I would have no problem with them getting Walked because the opportunity cost for them is not as great. They are NOT likely to be able to hit a Home Run each time they come to the plate.

Finally, as far as Walks go and scoring Runs, last year Dunn had 122 Hits, 23 Doubles, 40 Home Runs and led all of MLB with 122 Walks and he scored a grand total of 79 Runs.

Is this because he had bad hitters behind him all year? Possibly but I don't think Joey Votto is a bad hitter and he hit seventh for msot of hte time that KGJ and Dunn were on the team.

No, Dunn didn't score many Runs because 1) he didn't steal many bases. When he reached First Base, he was basically an anchor. 2) when a player behind him did get a SIngle, Dunn would most often just jog to Second Base, take a few steps beyond and then go back to Second. He often did the same thing when he was on Second and the batter hit a Single.

Because of this, when Dunn reached First Base, it usually took at least a couple of Singles or an Extra Base Hit to score him that wouldn't happen with a faster base runner.

Also, when Dunn is on First Base, if a guy following him got a Double it didn't guaranteee Dunn would score. I know because I saw Dunn get thrown out twice last year at Home while trying to score from First on a Double.

So, as far as Walks and On Base Percentage goes, I would rather a speedy guy at the top of the order be getting those and inflating his OPS because of it and my middle ofthe order guys swinging the bat, and increasing their OPS via Slugging Percentage.

Fast, top of the order guy on base + powerful, middle of order hitter swinging bat most times = Runs being scored.

Slow, powerful, middle of the order hitter not swinging bat and getting Walked = "lesser" hitters needing to string together a couple of Hits or getting an Extra Base Hit to = Runs being scored.

I will take scenario A over scenario B every time because it is more likely a Run or Runs will be scored and it means the middle of the order hitter is doing the job he is getting paid for and NOT pushing the responsibility off to a "lesser" hitter who is NOT getting paid as much.

Colthoit, the Cincykid, BankStreetGrounds,

If you would go to ESPN's baseball web page and click on Adam Dunn and then click on Splits, you will find that from 2003, when GASP opened, until he was traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks on August 11, 2008, Dunn hit 124 Home Runs at Home and 101 Home Runs on the Road.

No, it is not much difference over a 5 1/2 year time period. Ah, but you failed to look at the number of At Bats he did this in.

Over that time period, Dunn hit his 124 Home Runs in GASP in 1470 At Bats and his 101 Home Runs on the Road in 1478 At Bats.

Broken down, that means Dunn hit a HR at Home once in every 11.854838 At Bats and a HR on the Road once in every 14.633663 At Bats. When you divide those numbers out, you will find Dunn hit 20% more of his HR's at Home than on the Road.

With all of the power you guys keep arguing he has and saying that he could hit Home Runs anywhere and that BIll James was wrong in saying that GASP inflated Left Handed hitters power numbers by 28%, then how do you explain these stats?

Finally, in 2008, while with the Reds, Dunn hit 32 Home Runs in 373 At Bats, or one in every 11.66 At Bats. After he was traded to the D-backs, he hit 8 Home Runs in 144 At Bats, or one in every 18 At Bats. What happened? Did Dunn just all of a sudden get weak or did going and playing his Games in the NL West, where the ball parks are larger, affect him?

When looking at the stats from last year they very well could have.

In 2008, the Reds finished 4th in the NL as far as total Home Runs hit. In 2007, they were 3rd. In 2006, they were 2nd.

In 2008, the Rockies finished 9th in the NL as far as total Home Runs hit, the D-backs 10th, Padres 11th, Dodgers 13th and the Giants last.

In 2007, NL West teams finished 7th, 8th, 9th, 14th and 15th, respectively, in total Home Runs hit.

In 2006, they finished 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th and 15th, respectively.

Do you see a pattern here?

It looks to me that Home Runs are harder to hit in ball parks in the NL West and it also looks like Adam Dunn's Home Run prodcution dropped after he left the Reds and was traded out West.

I'd like to argue that Adam Dunn might be better than people give him credit for. A lot of the production stats are based on who's hitting in front of and behind him and Cincy hasn't been a mecca for great hitters for the last 5 years. You put Adam Dunn in a lineup where he has protected and he'll have even better stats.

Rogers also made a claim in a Toronto paper that if JP was to set up something to get Manny to Toronto that he would be willing to give the team even more money than he had already planned to.

But the thing is, even if Rogers gives the Jays 20-30MM more dollars to spend, where do they spend it and on who?

The Jays have holes to fill and no minor leaguers to fill the holes with and not a lot of trading chips that they can afford to move.

Here's how I see things panning out for the Jays.

C - Barajas / Bard maybe Barrett?
1B - Lind
2B - Hill
SS - Scutaro
3B - Rolen
RF - Rios
CF - Wells
LF - Snider
DH - ?

Starting Rotation
- Halladay
- McGowan
- Purcey
- Litsch
- Janssen

Sure there's rotation spots that could be open and honestly, I would love for the Jays to not have to use Purcey in the rotation and Janssen may not be in starting form for a while so I think the Jays should be looking at a FA starter of some sort to ensure a good rotation. IMO, Burnett wont be re-signed because he wants 5 years and with his past injury issues, do the Jays really need to take that kind of a risk?

Trade wise, there's been rumours circulating about a potential Overbay/Frasor to Texas for Blalock + pitching prospect move which would then likely set up a platoon between 1st and DH with Lind and Blalock.

joemorgan=#1:

You can't match Dunn up against Beltran and Wells because they play center field, which is a MUCH more defense-heavy position than a corner OF spot. Beltran's bat is elite for CF AND he is very adept defensively, which makes him well worth his contract. Wells shouldn't be playing CF, so you get a point there, although if he played in a corner, he'd probably be an elite defensive corner OF.

Agreed with you on the Soriano comp though. Soriano and Dunn are both butchers in a corner OF spot.

i agree with you guys a little about waiting on manny and the like, but i think it has to do more with Abreau and more comparable players to Dunn signing. Tex, manny and CC are in their own stratosphere....

"As far as On Base Percentage goes, big deal. He has no speed, so stealing bases, going from First to Third and scoring from First on Doubles aren't a big threat. This means the Pitchers and Defense aren't going to be rattled when Dunn is on base.

With his power, every hittable Strike he takes, in hopes of getting Walked, means one less opportunity for a Home Run. Every Walk he gets when there are runners on base or in scoring position means the onus is placed on somebody else to drive in Runs."

Wow

All of what I just quoted is ridiculously biased.

You just said it's a bad thing he gets on base, because he has no speed. And you're mad because he is taking strikes rather than attempting to hit home runs.

K

tbk104,

I think you've only read half the history book on Canadian Economy and Sports 101. The Blue Jays signed the majority of the current contracts save Alex Rios, and set their payroll 2 years ago. The dollar two years ago was right around the same spot it is now.

Everyone last year asked JP if he was going to be able to increase payroll because of the dollar, and he said pretty clearly no. The fact the dollar is down from last year does not mean they have less to work with, it means they're on the same level as the '06 - '07 offseason.

Ted Rogers has more money than most people could ever imagine, so a fluctuating economy is not going to scare him off, especially when the competition (Raptors and Leafs) are making big signings each year. When he originally increased the budget, the team (JP) was making money. The past two years, they've lost money and there's no way old Teddy will let JP go out and sign long contracts he likely won't be around to re-negotiate (JP will before they expire).

Just in case some people still don't get it

Last years $100 million payroll would cost the Jays roughly $120 million this year; a 20% budget increase.

So no, they are not in the same position as the '06-'07 offseason

I see the points made, all valid forsure.

To be honest, I dont expect the Jays to win the division any time soon, nor do I expect them to make the post season any time soon. I would just like to see them deliver a little more offense is all.

If they were to trade Overbay to Texas with Frasor for Blalock and Blalock had a healthy season that would be good for the Jays but Rios, Wells, Rolen, Barajas, Hill, Lind and Snider all have great offensive potential so if those players were to all have even average offensive seasons, I think Id be very happy with the year.

Pitching wise, there's no question that without Burnett and Marcum, they need to grab a free agent starter. So if they could even afford a type B starter to come in and have a decent season, I would be happy but thats only if the guys on the staff now have good years. Halladay is a given but I really think McGowan and Litsch have some serious stuff but are just not quite there yet.

All in all I think the Jays could win with the personnel they have if everyone could stay healthy and have even average years.

But lets face it, in this day and age, the Jays stand little chance when they have the Yanks and Sox to compete with in the division.