Rosenthal's Latest: Hardy, Flowers, Wolf

"The Padres have asked the Braves to substitute catcher Tyler Flowers for center fielder Gorkys Hernandez in their Jake Peavy offer."

From the get go I was beginning to wonder why this kid's name wasnt being mentioned. Correct me if Im wrong, but the Pads have absolutely NOTHING wiith regards to catcher in their system. I know Keith Law loves this kid and he has put up the numbers to show why. If this can finally put the Braves out front, Wren should be all over this. McCann will be making All Star games for the next several years ( barring injury of course) and Flowers (like Salty) will be blocked.

Bleh this makes no since to me...The Padres top catching prospect (Mitch Canham) is at the same level (going to be in AA) as Flowers. Flowers seems to be a little bit better of a prospect but why are the Padres adding depth to one of their best positions when they have so many holes thought out the organization.

JJ Hardy for Jonathan Sanchez

This guy is money. The pads would be smart and pull the trigger the second his name is thrown in the hat.

This makes "sense" to me (not sure why we're quoting sense). Flowers OBP has risen in each of the last 3 years, as has his ISO. He looks like the high OBP/HR type guy the padres covet.

Perhaps Flowers could easily be moved for pitching and that is the attraction. The Padres called up their catcher of the future last year in Nick Hundley, so I can't imagine them wanting another long term solution (if there is such a thing at the catching position).

I would hate to see the Brewers trade Hardy...although I don't consider anyone on the team except for Braun or Gallardo an untouchable. They would definitely have to do better than a "fifth starter" type to pry Hardy away. But I would be willing to trade him for some top of the line starting pitching. Hardy is easily one of the best shortstops in the game, and he is consistent. Trading Fielder for pitching makes a lot of sense too. I like Cameron, but the Brewers could do without his $10 million salary eating at the payroll. Talk of him being traded to the Yankees for young pitching is an intriguing option too.

bfender - Hundley is the Padres backup catcher of the future, Canham projects to be the padres catcher of the future.

"Changing the deal now and asking for Flowers might (Hopefully?) be the straw that breaks the camel's back. In other words, I think that Wren should tell Towers to go screw..."

Are you kidding me? Any trade that nets you Peavy without having to give up Hansen and Heyward should be causing Braves fans to jump for joy. I think you are wrong and the opposite will occur; Wren will be all over this if this can be the deal breaker, but we shall see.

Jay212033 - If the Padres weren't looking to dump Greene and you replaced Hernandez with Schafer I would imagine that would get it done...but Sandy Alderson has been looking to dump Greene for years now and has not been able to due to lack of organizational depth at the SS position.

"Flowers is a worse prospect than Hernandez, and he is not that much of a better prospect than Canham to make it worth it."

You can't be serious with this statement!

Steve - Hell if that's the case then how about Kelly Johnson, Jo-Jo Reyes/Charlie Morton, Jordan Schafer, Tyler Flowers and Brent Lillibridge. Lillibridge could give you the same defense as Greene with less pop and more speed.

Steve,

I rank Catcher as our 2nd biggest hole behind 2nd base. With all the FA guys that would love to pitch and rehab at PETCO and guys like Leblanc Garrison and Inman coming up our pitching doesn't worry me all that much.

Catcher is an offensive HOLE and has been since we had Piazza.

Which part of it makes you incredulous? The first part is absolutely true, the second part is an opinion and debatable. But if I've learned anything in the past month of Peavy mania it is that it is not worth debating Braves fans on the topic of their prospects.

The Braves have so many young up and coming catchers we can really afford to trade Flowers. We'd still have Matt Kennelly, Daniel Elorriaga-Matra, Braeden Schlehuber and Christian Betancourt so that's one of the teams strengths.

Frank Wren is just trying to get every last drop from the Pads now. If this whole Esco,
Reyes/Morton, Flowers/Hernandez deal works, Wren will be regarded as one of the toughest general managers around for holding his ground and not giving up Hanson or Heyward. But if it fails, the will be many angry Braves fans.

KRS1 - you dont put SS, RF, CF and SP (Inman, Garrison, and Bushman are the only two guys I like in the Padres system)as a bigger hole than C?

Hundley will do an ok job...sure he's not Piazza but who is?

nixa37 - is it a sure thing that Flowers will develop into a ML C or does he project more as a 1B? Also the Padres need guys who can play now not in 2 to 3 years.

thedeuce,

I'm a Braves fan and that's just ridiculous. You can't just pull the centerpiece out of the deal because the Padres get Flowers and Locke. Hell, getting the Padres to settle for Escobar, Flowers, Locke, +1, should be viewed as a win for the Braves if they can pull it off.

"McCann will be making All Star games for the next several years ( barring injury of course) and Flowers (like Salty) will be blocked."

Salty wasn't blocked. If Salty was ready to catch at the major league level, the rangers would have loved to have had him in there for 140 games this year.

Laird started 87, Salty started 52, Teagarden started 11, ramirez started 7, and melhuse started 5. That doesn't quite describe a blocked position. Comparitively, McCann started 132. That is being blocked.

Flowers projects as either an offensive catcher, which means his defense will never be average, or a first basemen. He does rake though...but he is big and has a weak arm, which his size makes even worse because he has a slow release.

Anyway, he will always be an offensive catcher...but he could be a good one.

Please don't bring up an Atlanta deal without Escobar...there is no point.

I'm so ready for the S to be over! I'm starting to kinda hope he goes to the Cubs!

Aduncaroo,

What you said. I've not seen him play but from all reports he's eager to put in a lot of time working on defense (mainly footwork) so that even if he doesn't have a cannon he can be an above average receiver.

The guy can flat-out hit and has a terrific idea of the strike zone. If he were in the AL he might be a full-time player in 2009, catching some, playing some 1B but primarily as a DH.

To All Braves Fans,

Look, I'm one of you, but please stop trying to bring up deals that suddenly don't include Escobar. He is the centerpiece from SD's perspective. The Braves and Padres have been going back a forth with proposals built around him for over a week now, and you think we could just pull him out and suddenly get a deal done? You guys are kidding yourselves. If we want Peavy its going to take 1 of Heyward, Hanson, or Escobar. Period. Please stop debating this...you make all Braves' fans look bad.

nixa37, that makes no sense that the Pad's should take the cub's deal if they want to compete in '09. The Cub's aren't offering any more ML ready players. Pie is not that good, Theriot could be a starter, but probably not at SS & Marshall is a token lefthand reliever. So how does that help you compete over an everyday SS, a starter in Morton or Reyes that has ML experience with ok to good stuff & a prospect??

Either way, they're not competing for anything next year with either package.

Don't ever say a Cubs fan can't ever evaluate other team's prospects! I actually like Flowers a lot...I think his bat might end up being just fine, even if he doesn't stick at 1st. I originally became interested because I wanted to see how he compared to W. Castillo, the Cubs best catching prospect. I found that while Castillo plays much better defense, the offensive numbers aren't close. I like Flowers more, but they would actually make the perfect platoon!

Anyway, as a Cubs fan, I am torn about giving up Vitters...so I'm actually alright with the Braves getting this done, and I think its pretty fair all the way around if they include Flowers.

"I haven't read anywhere that Flowers has a weak arm, I've heard he has poor throwing mechanics from several different scouts but his arm is suppose to be above average"

Read BPs top 11 prospect list. It calls his arm "below average" and says it is made worse by his size and slow release.

The Brves wont give up Scheafer. It will be Esco, Flowers, Mort/Reyes and maybe Brandon Jones.

VAFriar,

Yes, Flowers has been in the minors for 3 years and hasn't risen above high-A (oh no, he's only managed to move up a level a year!!!), but Canham spent 4 years in college and 2 in the minors and he is still at the same level...what does that say about him?

Anyway, Flowers is certainly not "essentially worthless" if he can't stay at C. The guy just posted a line of .288/.427/.492 with 17 HR and 32 2B in just over 400 AB's. What about those numbers makes you think he wouldn't still profile as a pretty good prospect as a 1B?

KRS1 - I'm thinking more long term than short term...Kulbaki is more of a LF especially in Petco, who knows where Guret and Hairston will be in a few years and I’m not boarding the Venable train until he get more than a month and a half of major league AB’s.

nixa37 - No I don’t think the Padres will contend in 09 but they need to lay the ground work and get ML ready prospects in there to get their feet wet so they will be respectable in 2010 and beyond…getting a prospect who is 2 years away and may develop into a position (1B) that the padres have a lot of depth at to me is less valuable than a prospect (Schafer) who is at a position that the padres desperately need now.

"If I'm Wren, I'd tell Towers that we will add Flowers to the Peavy package on one condition. That being escobar is taken out and replaced with Lillibridge and Flowers instead."

With the Cubs apparently willing to offer Vitters, what in the world makes you think he wouldn't end talks immediately??? Vitters is already the best "prospect" that is available to them...so if you think taking Escobar out is going to do anything...you are right. Its going to net the Cubs an Ace.

Bravesfan89,

I'm a Braves fan and that deal isn't fair. You're seriously kidding yourself if you think Flowers makes up for the huge drop in value from Escobar to Lillibridge.

Well I guess there is a discrepency between BA and BP...

Funny, because neither even descibes his arm as average. BP states it pretty clearly...while BA says he flashed it...

I don't know...not really that big of a deal either way.

"With the Cubs apparently willing to offer Vitters, what in the world makes you think he wouldn't end talks immediately??? Vitters is already the best "prospect" that is available to them...so if you think taking Escobar out is going to do anything...you are right. Its going to net the Cubs an Ace."

I'm sorry kid, but a combination of Schafer/Hernandez and Flowers is already a better centerpiece than just Vitters? Not to mention the fact that we havn't even gotten into the pitching part of the discussion....

So I seriously doubt the Cubs will get Peavy. Towers is just using them to up the price for the Braves.

"In his quest for righthanded power, Reds GM Walt Jocketty inquired on Matt Holliday and Josh Willingham before they were traded."

And Willingham is not a Red now because?

It can't be because the Marlins asking price was too high. (It's not like they were going to ask for Cueto and, when not given that, turn around and trade him to the Nats for a couple of Minor Leaguers).

It can't be because Willingham winning in Salary Arbitration would cost too much. (The Reds are already paying Ryan Freel $4 million in 2009 and Alex Gonzalez over $5 million. If they bring Jerry Hairston Jr back, he is probably going to cost at least $3 million a year for three years).

It can't be because his Road stats were awful (Unlike Matt Holliday or Garrett Atkins, Willingham's Road stats were BETTER than his Home stats).

It can't be because of his back problems. (The REds put up with King Griffey Junior's heatlh issues for eight years. They have ALSO put up with Freel and A Gon's health issues and THEY are still on the team. Most importantly, Jocketty is STILL pursuing JHJ in Free Agency even though he is coming off a career year, at age 32 and one which he was, yet again, injured).

No, it looks like grumpy old Ca$htellini has hired Bill Bavasi for a reason; to make the SAME mistake with the Reds that he did with Seattle. That would be to sign and overpay for a guy with "old player" skills and a guy who, once signed, will fall off a cliff Offensively. That would be none other than the loafing loser Adam Dunn.

EVERYBODY knows Ca$htellini has a man crush on Dunn but instead of getting a life size poster of Dunn wearing a leopard skin jockstarp, holding a bat on his shoulder and smiling and a four year prescription of Viagra, Ca$htellini has probably told Jocketty to let all OTHER avalable candidates for Left Field (Holliday, Willingham, Manny R, Jermaine Dye, Burrell, etc) to get past and THEN come in and sign DUnn to a three or four year contract.

That way, Ca$htellini can stand up at the microphone and blow smoke up Reds' fans behinds about Dunn being the best player available and how he is such a GREAT Run producer. Then, when reporters start to ask questions about this stupid deal, Ca$htellini can grunt at them as he usually does (just like he did in the interview after Krivsky was fired) and walk out, thereby letting Jocketty and Bavasi answer WHY the Reds went down this path which has FAILED them the past eight years.

Andy - I definitely wouldn't be upset if the Braves did get him but I really would hate losing Escobar. I just know that I'm getting sick of our entire offseason revolving around this deal.

I hope the Braves don't get this deal done. Trading to fill a hole just to make another hole just doesn't make sense to me.

"How the hell can you say a 19yr old prospect who hasn't even played a full season of professional baseball yet, is a better centerpiece than that of Flower and Schafer/Hernandez?"

Would you rather trade Heyward and keep Flowers and Schafer/Hernandez? Vitters and Heyward are comparable prospects.

"He isn't very different from Heyward...but somehow I think you would agree that Heyward would be much better. Read BPs analysis of Vitters and you might understand."

Heyward has played against much tougher competition than Vitters has and imo has a lot mroe upside than Vitters (Heyward=5 tool player). I'd read BP's analysis of both and I honestly don't think Vitter as a centerpiece is better than that of Flowers and Hernandez. Call me crazy, bias whatever, but I HONESTLY feel that way.

"How the hell can you say a 19yr old prospect who hasn't even played a full season of professional baseball yet, is a better centerpiece than that of Flower and Schafer/Hernandez? Enlighten please?"

It's called upside. And Vitters has an abundance of it. This is a guy who has been described by scouts as having astounding plate coverage and bat speed, which enables him to crush balls in all sorts of places in the zone, similar to Vladimir Guerrero. He was basically the consensus best pure hitter in the 2007 draft, and has done nothing to disprove that in the minors.

You can make issues with his walks, but when you can basically hit the ball hard anywhere in the zone, it's harder to hold off of pitches.

Vitters has the hitting upside of Vladimir Guerrero, and you simply can't say that about any of the guys Atlanta has available.

"It's called upside. And Vitters has an abundance of it. This is a guy who has been described by scouts as having astounding plate coverage and bat speed, which enables him to crush balls in all sorts of places in the zone, similar to Vladimir Guerrero. He was basically the consensus best pure hitter in the 2007 draft, and has done nothing to disprove that in the minors."

Yeah, upside so that doesn't mean he'll exactly pan out. That's why taking flowers instead would be the safer bet.

"Vitters has the hitting upside of Vladimir Guerrero, and you simply can't say that about any of the guys Atlanta has available."

OMG, oh hale the great Vitters....LOL, get out of here if you think Vitters will turn out to be half the player Vlad is.

"I think you let BP base your judgement on ranking players. Vitters is not a better prospect than Schafer or even Flowers at this point."

Hahaha..dude...I don't know what to tell you. Every scout in America would tell you that Vitters is the better prospect, certainly than Flowers...and I like Flowers.

"Heyward has played against much tougher competition than Vitters"

I don't know that I would call regular A ball "much tougher" than short season A ball...and neither has even been to AA yet. Plus, the Cubs have his position filled for at least 2 more years, and up to 4, (depends on Ramirez opting out or taking his option) they are going to take their time with him, as they have already shown. Vitters would have been right where Heyward was had he not been injured for the first part of the season.

If you honestly believe that Flowers is a better prospect than Vitters...I don't really know what else to tell you.

scribbletone,

I'd actually argue that Heyward's hitting upside is superior to that of Guerrero's considering his raw tools and the fact that he has great pitch recognition skills.

"If you honestly believe that Flowers is a better prospect than Vitters...I don't really know what else to tell you."

I never said that, I said he's not on the same level Heyward is RIGHT now. Of course that could change given he struggles in AA next year. My point was that Vitters is so far away from the bigs that I just don't see him being that much of a difference than Flowers would be in terms of a trade. Vitters has potential, but Flowers has already demonstrated his raw talent and shown that he can be a really good hitter. Not only that, but Flowers is a lot closer to being ML-ready.

bdlugz,

You do realize that both BP and BA had Heyward ahead of Vitters (by quite a bit in BA's case) heading into last season? Heyward moved up even higher, while, as you put it, Vitters stayed put. Heyward is on a different level than Vitters right now in terms of his current value.

Honestly, I think a lot of people are seriously underrating Schafer at this point. Both BA and BP had him as a top 25 prospect heading into last season, and after getting back into the swing of things after his suspension, he hit as well as he ever has at the minor league level (I believe his post ASB OPS was over 1000). What is so ridiculous about comparing him to Vitters?

"Best case scenario, Flowers is a mediocre defensive catcher with plus hitting tools. And there is good reason to think he won't even end up being a catcher, which would kill a lot of his value."

I agree, he might end up playing a different position other than catcher when is called up to the ML's. However, you say best case scenario for him is that he would be a mediocre catcher defensively...? Ok, do you know that McCann was highly touted as a defensive first type catcher before coming to Atlanta? How did that turn out? yeah..ok

"If you want to take a bunch of low ceiling/low risk guys when dealing away an elite player, go ahead, but your team will suck."

Explain to me how Flowers, Schafer/ Hernandez and Locke have low ceilings. You talk about narrowminded, what I'm reading in quotes....exhibit A.

"When dealing away stars, you need to get guys with serious star potential. Vitters, ahem."

How can you even make a judegement like that? From what I can tell Vitter is just like the "crap" Braves fans are offering for Peavy, a PROSPECT.

"You do realize that both BP and BA had Heyward ahead of Vitters (by quite a bit in BA's case) heading into last season? Heyward moved up even higher, while, as you put it, Vitters stayed put. Heyward is on a different level than Vitters right now in terms of his current value."

Ding ding ding

And let's not forget that Flowers put up last year's numbers while playing in Coastal Federal Field--where fly balls go to die.

His bat is definitely good enough to survive a move to 1B, though his value would take a hit.

Aduncaroo,

Because alleged PED use has caused ML teams to seriously de-value players values in the past? Seriously, he got suspended based on circumstantial evidence and hit as well as he ever has after the suspension. Sure its an issue, but a pretty small one.

As for the underrating, just check out your 2nd paragraph. "Much of Jordan's value comes [from] him being able to put up average numbers"...Have you looked at his numbers from the past two reasons recently? 49 2B, 10 3B, and 15 HR in 565 AB in A ball in 2007 and 18 2B, 6 3B, and 10 HR in 297 AB in AA this year...those numbers point to pretty impressive power potential, especially coming from a CF. He also greatly improved his BB rate this season despite moving up to AA. Other than his AVG this year (which was really affected by being dropped into AA midseason coming off suspension), all the numbers from the past two seasons point to huge offensive potential for Schafer. Thus my argument that people on here are serious underrating him.

Thats all fine, and I never said he doesn't have potential. I said that much of his value comes from being closer and putting up average numbers for a CF in the majors soon.

Vitters value comes in the fact that his offensive potential could blow Jordan's away.

I'm telling you that nearly every scout has Vitters as a 5 star type of prospect, while most would rate Jordan as a 4 star at best.

"I'm telling you that nearly every scout has Vitters as a 5 star type of prospect, while most would rate Jordan as a 4 star at best."

So you'll listen to scouts when they affirm your belief Vitters is a prospect God, but when it comes to Heyward CLEARLY being ranked ahead of Vitters in nearly every regard, well the scouts all of a sudden just don't seem to matter as much huh?

I'd almost guarantee that the team that Melvin is referring to, who offered a fifth starter for Hardy, is Baltimore and that the player is Daniel Cabrera. Look at team needs and the description. Just fits. Of course that won't get it done, but I'm not surprised the O's offered and, as a fan, I hope they continue to inquire as to Hardy's availability. Unfortunately, I would imagine the Brewers and Melvin will ask for Guthrie, which would effectively end any discussion. MacPhail should offer Cabrera AND Sherrill and see if that moves things closer to fruition. A starter- even a back of the rotation starter with command issues (understatement of the year)- with considerable upside (and considerable downside), who hasn't missed a start in...forever (though I'm sure the O's wish he'd missed a few of the more horrendous ones)...AND an All Star closer who can also be used as a lefty setup man, might pry Hardy loose...IF no one else trumps them. With Escobar coming up, Hardy will either be moved to another position or another team. Guess it depends on whether the Brewers are ready to give up on Weeks and/or how the team feels about Gamel's butcher-like D at 3B.

A Cabrera/Sherrill package would fill a couple needs and, again, offers a player the Crew can dream on, though MacPhail may have to up the ante with another (young) BP arm- Mickolio maybe? And Hardy represents a massive offensive upgrade over FA-to-be, Castro, while keeping the O's out of the fray for subpar substitutes on the free agent market (Renteria, Cabrera, etc.). Brewers fans...any thoughts?