Yankees Are Abreu's First Choice

Everyone seems convinced that Posada cant play catcher next season.. Whats the deal? he had surgery and almost a full year of rehab..

Is it really more likely than not that he cannot catch next year?

He'll get like $15 million or so off of arbitration.

"If Abreu likes the Yankees that much, he can sign a one-year, $10 million deal with them."

Yeah, I don't think he likes them so much that he won't take a guaranteed $15 million in arbitration that the Yankees have no choice but to give him.

Nady needs to be in the lineup as they need a right handed bat. Johnny stays in the outfield as we have no other leadoff option and he has been good when healthy. This makes both Abreu and Matsui as the odd men out.

I would be shocked if the Yankees didn't offer Abreu arbitration, even if they have no plans for him back with the team.

I see Gardener as a Melky type player: platoon/4th outfielder who has no business having a starting spot, especially not on the Yankees.

Abreu has no place with this team. The Yanks would be foolish to sign him, unless the can first trade Damon or Matsui. And, even them, I'd only give Abreu a one-year deal to play solely DH. I'm fine with Damon in left, Gardner in CF and Nady in RF with Melky the fourth outfielder. Matsui as DH.

Everyone does realize that Nady is basically a LA corner outfielder right? He had ONE great year. Every other year has been extremely average. Here is his OPS+ by year:

2005 - 104
2006 - 102
2007 - 107
2008 - 128

Frankly, Abreu is the only sure thing in that outfield right now. Matsui may never play in the field again with any regularity. Damon provides decent speed and a little pop but no arm. Gardner/Cabrera are interchangeable AAAA players.

If Abreu isn't resigned and the Yanks go with Melky/Garnder, Nady and Damon with Matsui at DH I could see all sorts of problems with that group. Throw in Posada and his injury and you could have a real mess.

Personally, if I'm the Yanks I would try and move Damon for D. Lee. Package Matsui for anything I can get, and then go for a Dunn/Burrell type player. That would shore up 1B, and leave your outfield/DH with Dunn, Abreu, Nady, Gardner/Cabrera.

Lee and Damon are a salary wash. Assuming you can move Matsui + other pieces to get his salary off the books, bringing in Dunn/Burrell would only add a few extra $ to the payroll. You can then focus all your money Sabathia/Burnett/Sheets/Lowe, etc.

And I don't think the Cubs would even consider Damon for Lee. Lee can still to damage to any pitcher

"No player who has more than 6 years of MLB service time is guaranteed anything in arbitration. That's why no one ever gets to that point.

That said, if he does go to arbitration the judge will probably value him at $14 million or so."

Actually, you are wrong. According to Article VI(D) of the CBA, any player under reserve (who has been offerred and accepted arbitration) cannot recieve less than 80% of his salary from the previous year or 70% of his average salaries of the previous 2. The only exception to this rule is for a player who won arbitration in the previous year and recieved a raise of 50% or more.

"I'm fine with Damon in left, Gardner in CF and Nady in RF with Melky the fourth outfielder. Matsui as DH."

With the arguable exception of Damon, Abreu is far more productive than any of those guys.

"Actually, you are wrong. According to Article VI(D) of the CBA, any player under reserve (who has been offerred and accepted arbitration) cannot recieve less than 80% of his salary from the previous year or 70% of his average salaries of the previous 2. The only exception to this rule is for a player who won arbitration in the previous year and recieved a raise of 50% or more."

This is a common misconception, because that rule only applies to players who have less than 6 years of service time.

AA:

I like Abreu and so do the Yanks I think but I don't think they want to committ to him for another 3 years. Plus we have a lot of OF/DH/over 30 guys already under contract for 09. If he could be had for 2 years 22-24 mil I think they'd do it.

"This is a common misconception, because that rule only applies to players who have less than 6 years of service time."

I believe the rule applies to sny player who is offered arbitration. Thats why so many teams are scared to offer declining players arbitration.

"This is a common misconception, because that rule only applies to players who have less than 6 years of service time."

To clarify, you're maintaining that the longer you are employed by a Major League Baseball team the less money you can be guaranteed through the arbitration process?

Why not just admit you were wrong in the first place.

Mets should trade Heilman to the Yanks for Melky. I'd prefer Xavier Nady as a Met fan, but Yanks probably won't part with Nady that easily. Thoughts?

Heilman has more value than Melky.

Riveraveblues gets the credit:

http://riveraveblues.com/2008/10/16/organizational-meetings-offering-arbitration-5181/

"Update: I was just reading through the CBA and came across this paragraph, under the rules for free agency. Emphasis mine.

If the Player accepts the offer to arbitrate, he shall be a signed player for the next season and the parties will conduct a salary arbitration proceeding under Article VI; provided, however, that the rules concerning maximum salary reduction set forth in Article VI shall be inapplicable and the parties shall be required to exchange figures on the last day established for the exchange of salary arbitration figures under Article VI.

So I’ve been wrong all this time. There are no rules for salary reduction for players with more than six years of service time."

And not only that, but a salary defined by the arbitration process is a NON-GUARANTEED contract, meaning they can be cut in Spring Training, and only 30 days worth of that contract be paid.

The danger of arbitration is the fact that arbitrators have no actual knowledge of baseball player value, and would give someone like Varitek $8 million. Also, you have to put that player on your 40-man roster, blocking spots that the teams may otherwise want to use, for example protecting Rule V eligible players.

Here is the pertinent words from Cashman, via Abraham:

"Meanwhile, Brian Cashman was kind enough to tell me that the Yankees have no side agreements with any of their free agents to decline arbitration if offered. But that doesn’t mean they would accept, given that their contracts would not be guaranteed for 2009.

UPDATE, 4:28 p.m.: This directly from C-Money himself: “They would be on non-guaranteed contracts – but since it is a major league contract, they would get either 30 or 45 days termination pay in spring training if they are released…if they make team it becomes guaranteed.”"

@ Barroid Bonds

... as for the Lee for Damon swap, here are my thoughts.

The money works out well for Chicago. They are currently on the hook for 2/26 with Lee and Damon would be coming with a 1/13.

Chicago has need for a CF and a leadoff hitter. Damon provides both. While this would open up a hole at 1B, it closes a hole at CF. Chicago could get then go out and find someone to plug in Lee's place.

As a CF you would expect much less offense than what you get out of your 1B. Looking at last year Lee posted an OPS of 823 (OPS+ 110) compared to Damon's OPS of 836 (OPS+ 118). Throw in Damon's wheels and he was clearly the better offensive player last year despite playing a tougher position.

And while it's fun to make fun of Damon's arm in CF you can look at a stat like Win Shares (which include defensive metrics) and see that Damon was superior to Lee at a 25 to 18 clip.

Going into next year I would say that both players are fairly equal offensively. If I'm the Cubs I would take my chances at finding a 1st baseman over trying to secure a great CF'er.

92-93, I now fully believe you are a joke account. Congratulations.

I wouldnt understand why a player would accept arbitration. If the team doesnt want you why would you accept? dont any players have a little pride. I'm happy that Abreu wants to play in Ny, but if the yanks offer him arb i hope he understands that they dont want him so he doesnt accept it.

If the yankees had some smarts they'd get abrue back in a heart-beat! Sure he does have a big-bankroll (which god-for-bid will cut into the yankees salary), but we're comparing this to trying to get Manny, i mean come-on. All they'd have to do is sign him for a few more years with maybe around 50 million. The rest of the money can go to getting fresh, young pitchers. We don't need to worry about high-priced players! just because we're the biggest team with money, doesn't mean that we have to show it off by getting over-rated players...

The Yanks should consider trading Nady for pitching, especially if they land Manny. They have a surplus of outfielders, and he has the most value. And they also need young pitchers, which he can get.

Haha, Viv Savage, your right, i was a bit tired and i really don't even understand what i said, i just think that we need to keep abrue, and get some young talent into the yankee organization. We don't need to get big guys like Manny, Abrue is just fine. (YEAH! That what i was trying to say all-along, so disregard my last comment, haha)