Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Tigers, Braves, Red Sox, Pirates

No love for Johan Santana and his 6 year $137.5MM deal last year. I know he wasn't a free agent but it's still a 6 year deal.

I am nitpicking here, but the Mets really only added 5 years to his previous deal and as you pointed out he wasn't a free agent.

They did give him more money in the first year, so you technically it was a six year deal.

I have to completely agree. If Lars Anderson is being considered our "untouchable" prospect, then why would we shell out all this money for Tex?

Anderson is home grown which will make him as popular as Dpeds has become, and Tex will hurt the pockets of the Sox.

My opinion: Add an outfielder, possibly a utility infielder (to let Lowrie develop better), Trade Lugo for pitching prospects (this could help solve the pitching crisis in 2010 as the article said about the Red Sox) and get Buchholz, Masterson and Bowden ready to go for next season.

I wanted Tex at first but after reading about this Lars kid I think we've got something here and it would be a bad idea to shun him for a big money player.

how does adding a utility infielder help lowrie develop?

jed is going to develop playing everyday.. not watching someone else play.

"when we no longer have a use for david ortiz."

thats nice, lets just throw out the best clutch hitter baseball has ever scene when his numbers dip because of a wrist injury.

EWS,
I agree.

Lets break things down.

2009 - Tex/Youk/Ortiz
2010 - Tex/Youk/Ortiz with Lars a September callup

Now we get into 2011 where things start to change. Ortiz has an club option which the Sox could decline if they feel Anderson is ready to be a DH in his first full season.

So now in 2011, it becomes Anderson/Tex/Youk

2012 - (4th year into Teixeiras contract when he is now 32) the Red Sox can start to split time at 1B and DH between Anderson/Tex. They would do this because they still are likely to have 3+ years invested in Teixeira and they need to ensure he stays healthy the entire time.

Fast forward to 2014 or 2015. After several years of Tex and Anderson splitting duties at DH/1B, Teixeira becomes a free agent and Anderson is roughly at his prime of 28yrs old. (ala, Teixeira today).

Sox re-up Anderson long term and let Teixeira go.

Obviously this is using a crystal ball to theorize all this however, the only year in which there might be some overlap is 2011 if the Sox were to take the option on Ortiz.

Otherwise, in 2010 the Red Sox simply wouldn't call up Anderson until mid year anyways b/c they wouldn't want to start his arbitration and Free Agency clock any earlier then this.

Come mid 2010 if the Sox want to give Anderson a shot then they will also be able to better evaluate whether or not to keep Ortiz in 2011.

True, you make a valid point, thanks for clearing it up.

Kangaroo, if those plans worked out I'd be 100% in for Tex. But it's not guaranteed that will happen.

And who said Anderson wants to play DH? Not many 25 year old kids when they are just beginning their prime years will want to sit in the dugout and only bat 3 times a game.

"And who said Anderson wants to play DH? Not many 25 year old kids when they are just beginning their prime years will want to sit in the dugout and only bat 3 times a game."

I'm pretty sure if he has the choice between DHing for Boston or playing first for Pawtucket, he'll take the first.

ben - how did lowrie do this year handling "pressure to perform?"

he's fine. he's going to be fine.

i mean, they are going to sign a utility infielder anyway (unless they use iggy suarez ala cesar crespo) but either way... it wont have much impact on his development.

thats why they have coaches.

EWS

True but we could always use the depth regardless.

I was just looking at the free agents in 2010. I say forget Lowe and Burnett and make a run at Webb in 2010. That could always be an option.

I'm excited about Lars Anderson, as well, but this comparison to Teixeira is ludicrous. Yes, Anderson has a good work ethic, is intelligent, and is putting up very good numbers at a very young age. That said, he's also compiled fewer than 1,000 minor-league ABs. In that time, his OPS is still lower than Teixeira's major-league OPS, without even factoring in the significant learning curve between AA and the major leagues. Anderson also has difficulty with off-speed stuff, leading to a high strikeout rate. This can be improved, but suggests that he may be a few years away from contributing meaningfully.

Teixeira has proven that he can put up a 1.000+ OPS RIGHT NOW. For chicks who dig the long-ball, Teixeira has 30-40 HR range.

Finally, Anderson's fielding does not track to rival Teixeira's at this early stage in his career.

Teixeira IS what Anderson PROJECTS to be with a bit of fairy dust and a lot of sunshine and rainbows. The Red Sox certainly consider the future when making short-term decisions, but they're not a team that punts on slick-fielding power bats simply because they have a young guy who, if all goes as hoped, may provide similar offensive production at a lower cost several years down the road.

If you believe in win shares at all, the Red Sox need to anticipate a step back from a couple pitchers (even with a step up from Beckett), and will need to make up the wins the Yankees have gained somewhere.

The only members of the Red Sox lineups who are not question marks are Pedroia and Youkilis. Bay is a relatively safe bet, but at much lower production than Manny provided at his peak. Lowrie, Lowell, Ortiz, Drew, Ellsbury, catcher... all legitimate question marks for 2009. Teixeira is one of the few free-agents whose history suggests he could hold up over the long-term, while also providing immediate impact.

Lars Anderson is still a lottery ticket.

Bill James projected this for Papi last year:

David Ortiz -
.298/.407/.587, 109 R, 40 HR, 130 RBI

He also projected this for Ellsbury:

Jacoby Ellsbury - .320/.374/.436, 78 R, 5 HR, 46 RBI, 42 SB

And this for Varitek:

Jason Varitek - .253/.349/.418, 60 R, 17 HR, 70 RBI

He was right about one thing... Ellsbury had quite a few steals.

please guys...for you saying we should not sign the best hitting free agent for the next 5 years is rediculous. We need to sign Tex, and when Ortiz is out of gas, you bring up Lars...wats the problem?

you told me about bill james, so i ran the numbers, if i ever meet him ill ask him what he thinks about his career stat projection but sadly he doesnt have that any where posted i could find. from my point of view, the only reason we are talking about this is because of ortiz's bad year because of his wrist, if someone said that we should plan to replace a 32 year old ortiz at the end of the 07 season after the numbers he put up, that person would look like a complete moron. if ortiz hit 300 again with 30 homers, we wouldnt be having this conversation right now, but since he got hurt we are, and now that he has had time to rest and regain confidence, and im sure we will see it in the WBC, then everyone will be back on his side, except for me, cause im already with him. Lars Anderson is not even CLOSE to a proper replacement for ortiz anyway, and considering Albert Puljos will be a free agent around the time your talking about, dont you think that is the road we would take instead of Anderson? I agree to disagree with you, i respect your opinion but when you said "no longer have a use for", you kind of set me off, sorry

Bill James is a pretty smart guy, but the arguments you make (except for Ortiz declining quickly, which I'll agree with) are kind of foolish.

"Jacoby Ellsbury - .320/.374/.436, 78 R, 5 HR, 46 RBI, 42 SB"

Ok, so he underprojected homers, runs, RBI, and SB, and missed out on his splits by 25-40 points, which is pretty good in estimating a player in his first full-time season. Likewise with Varitek, there were a number of tangible details such as his divorce, minor injury, and so forth.

That aside, I agree that moving on Tex is a good idea. Papi will likely decline in the next 2-3 years, which is when Lars will be developing into a monster (if all goes to plan). We also keep Tex out of the hands of the EvilEmpire as well as the Halos who we seem to hit in the playoffs every year.

Furthermore, because he's not a Mo Vaughn at 1b, we can, as mentioned above, platoon him on the field if the wear and tear of the summer starts to rear its ugly head in September.