Lincecum Open To Long-Term Deal

Not a Giant fan but I do really like Lincecum. They would be smart to at least buy out his arb years as he could easily exceede the 15 million in those years.

Regardless of what happens, Lincecum is the type of pitcher that you never move in their prime. As long as Lincecum is healthy, he ought to be a Giant.

Lincecum deserves a long term deal pitching like an ace on a losing team. If Zito can have a breakout year, he along with Matt Cain, they could make for a very solid starting rotation.

If Giants can only find some hitting to go along with the pitching, they could be competitive.

you really think him saying:

"We're trying to keep our options open and not commit to anything or do anything too drastic," said Lincecum, who made $405,000 ($5,000 over the minimum) in 2008. "If it ends up working out, I mean, you don't want to be closed off to anything now."

is him being "open to a long-term deal?" Come on, that is just a bunch of meaningless words that you say to a reporter when you are asked a question like that

What's the most a pitcher has gotten through arb? Wasn't it like 10 million, in a loss, for a closer?

If so, wouldn't you figure Lincecum would get more than that in each of his years? He's already won a Cy Young and he's a starter...

DO IT NOW SABES!!!

as to the "being open to a long-term deal" question, previously, Lincecum's agent had stated that they were not interested in having Lincecum's arb years bought out and instead would do the one year at a time deal. The Giants had purchased Matt Cain's arb years and he'll make $2.65M in 2009, $4.25M in 2010 & $6.25M (club option) in the last year of his current deal. Had Lincecum made a similar deal a year ago, he probably would have gotten a similarly sized deal.

Because Lincecum was dominant than Cain, and has already won a Cy Young, if the Giants want to buy him out, it'll cost a lot more. If the Lincecum waits another season, he may not have as good a season (I don't believe that, but it's possible he won't win the Cy Young in 2009) and he'd lose some leverage during negotiations of a longer term deal. So, now may be the time to strike b/c the iron is hot.

Also, the Giants have a lot more money to spend now than they did last year and they might be able to get a few more million out of the team than last year.

Moreover, he made "only" $405k last year and buyout puts big money in his pocket NOW, which would be tempting for a 24 year old.

As far as I'm concerned, the Giants should give him about anything he wants to stay here his whole career.

If they can sign him - super. Do it. If not, they need to explore trading him now before he hits arbitration. There is no reason to think he couldn't land a $10m deal through arb in year 1. If Howard could do it on the offensive side Lincecum is certainly worthy of similar considerations on the pitching side.

Regardless of what they say, EVERY player is open to a long-term deal, if they're paid enough.

I cannot for the life of me imagine him only getting $15M for the 3 arb years. Yes, he, like any pitcher, is an injury risk, but a reasonable guess would be $3M in year 1, $7M in year 2, and $12M in year 3. If he's healthy and continues to perform, you're looking at $30M+ over the 3 in all likelyhood.

The FA years have to start at $15M.

So if we're talking 6 years, it's probably in the $50-60M range, and more than that if the FA years are options and not guaranteed.

philsWSchamps - Cain signed a 4 year EXTENSION in March 2007. The team has a club option for the 2011 season ($6.25M). If the team doesn't exercise the option, he's a free agent in 2011. If they do exercise it, he becomes a free agent in 2012.

Man, didn't realize that the $10M for Howard was in year one. My arb estimates could almost double in that case.

Yes and word is Howard is going to ask for 15+ million in arbitration this year. He will always go year to year.

I'm not sure you find any GM right now that would take Pedroia over Lincecum. That said, the comparison is fair.

Assuming Lincecum stays healthy and produces at a similar level (no guarantees of that) I would expect his arb years look like:

YR1: $8m
YR2: $11m
YR3: $13m

If he were to hit FA you would be looking at $20m+/year - easily more valuable than CC. If the Giants are going to buy out his arb years + 3 FA years they best be prepared to pay up with a record breaking deal.

http://www.mercurynews.com/giants/ci_10968466?nclick_check=1

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/11/odds-and-ends-h.html

Buyout his years under team control, $40MM/5 years.