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Back in August, Tim Lincecum's agent was telling reporters he preferred going year-to-year. Lincecum won't be eligible for free agency until after the 2013 season. However, Lincecum told John Shea yesterday that he's now open to an extension.
The Giants would probably have to pay at least $15MM for Lincecum's three arbitration years (unless he's a Super Two) plus at least $12MM for each free agent year.
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Not a Giant fan but I do really like Lincecum. They would be smart to at least buy out his arb years as he could easily exceede the 15 million in those years.
Posted by: BucSox | December 03, 2008 at 12:30 PM
For anyone who read that article posted on this site a while back, Lincecum is probably least likely to suffer an injury over the course of his contract.
The man doesn't even have to ice after an outing.
Posted by: terrasaire | December 03, 2008 at 12:30 PM
Regardless of what happens, Lincecum is the type of pitcher that you never move in their prime. As long as Lincecum is healthy, he ought to be a Giant.
Posted by: scribbletone | December 03, 2008 at 12:30 PM
well looks like we spoke too soon. This would be interesting.
Ruben Amaro this is your call to get the deal for Hamels done and prior to whenever this happens.
Posted by: philsWSchamps | December 03, 2008 at 12:32 PM
Lincecum deserves a long term deal pitching like an ace on a losing team. If Zito can have a breakout year, he along with Matt Cain, they could make for a very solid starting rotation.
If Giants can only find some hitting to go along with the pitching, they could be competitive.
Posted by: Steven | December 03, 2008 at 12:33 PM
i love how hes "open" to a long term deal. being a journeyman in baseball is like the lowest thing you could be, and hes only open to it. to each his own i suppose...
Posted by: 04Forever | December 03, 2008 at 12:37 PM
you really think him saying:
"We're trying to keep our options open and not commit to anything or do anything too drastic," said Lincecum, who made $405,000 ($5,000 over the minimum) in 2008. "If it ends up working out, I mean, you don't want to be closed off to anything now."
is him being "open to a long-term deal?" Come on, that is just a bunch of meaningless words that you say to a reporter when you are asked a question like that
Posted by: FluLikeSymptoms | December 03, 2008 at 12:37 PM
"If Zito can have a breakout year..."
Uh, he had his breakout year already.
It's called 2002.
Posted by: vtadave | December 03, 2008 at 12:48 PM
What's the most a pitcher has gotten through arb? Wasn't it like 10 million, in a loss, for a closer?
If so, wouldn't you figure Lincecum would get more than that in each of his years? He's already won a Cy Young and he's a starter...
Posted by: mford | December 03, 2008 at 12:51 PM
wonder how IF this happened it would affect Cain? Would he be upset they came to Lincecum first?
Posted by: philsWSchamps | December 03, 2008 at 12:53 PM
DO IT NOW SABES!!!
Posted by: 55saveslives | December 03, 2008 at 12:59 PM
didnt they just extend Cain last winter?
Posted by: GmblngPtchr20 | December 03, 2008 at 12:59 PM
as to the "being open to a long-term deal" question, previously, Lincecum's agent had stated that they were not interested in having Lincecum's arb years bought out and instead would do the one year at a time deal. The Giants had purchased Matt Cain's arb years and he'll make $2.65M in 2009, $4.25M in 2010 & $6.25M (club option) in the last year of his current deal. Had Lincecum made a similar deal a year ago, he probably would have gotten a similarly sized deal.
Because Lincecum was dominant than Cain, and has already won a Cy Young, if the Giants want to buy him out, it'll cost a lot more. If the Lincecum waits another season, he may not have as good a season (I don't believe that, but it's possible he won't win the Cy Young in 2009) and he'd lose some leverage during negotiations of a longer term deal. So, now may be the time to strike b/c the iron is hot.
Also, the Giants have a lot more money to spend now than they did last year and they might be able to get a few more million out of the team than last year.
Moreover, he made "only" $405k last year and buyout puts big money in his pocket NOW, which would be tempting for a 24 year old.
As far as I'm concerned, the Giants should give him about anything he wants to stay here his whole career.
Posted by: nostocksjustbonds | December 03, 2008 at 01:01 PM
didnt they just extend Cain last winter?
3/07 but its only up to a club option thru 2011. That comes up just short of his FA years I think.
Posted by: philsWSchamps | December 03, 2008 at 01:02 PM
If they can sign him - super. Do it. If not, they need to explore trading him now before he hits arbitration. There is no reason to think he couldn't land a $10m deal through arb in year 1. If Howard could do it on the offensive side Lincecum is certainly worthy of similar considerations on the pitching side.
Posted by: bjsguess | December 03, 2008 at 01:02 PM
Well, I meant for the Giants, sorry should of been more specific.
Posted by: Steven | December 03, 2008 at 01:18 PM
Regardless of what they say, EVERY player is open to a long-term deal, if they're paid enough.
I cannot for the life of me imagine him only getting $15M for the 3 arb years. Yes, he, like any pitcher, is an injury risk, but a reasonable guess would be $3M in year 1, $7M in year 2, and $12M in year 3. If he's healthy and continues to perform, you're looking at $30M+ over the 3 in all likelyhood.
The FA years have to start at $15M.
So if we're talking 6 years, it's probably in the $50-60M range, and more than that if the FA years are options and not guaranteed.
Posted by: bobo | December 03, 2008 at 01:20 PM
Man, didn't realize that the $10M for Howard was in year one. My arb estimates could almost double in that case.
Posted by: bobo | December 03, 2008 at 01:29 PM
philsWSchamps - Cain signed a 4 year EXTENSION in March 2007. The team has a club option for the 2011 season ($6.25M). If the team doesn't exercise the option, he's a free agent in 2011. If they do exercise it, he becomes a free agent in 2012.
Posted by: nostocksjustbonds | December 03, 2008 at 01:32 PM
bonds,
well i assume unless he gets injured from now until 2011 they'll exercise that and he'll be a FA in 2012. That's after 3 years. IF, Lincecum would sign say a 5 year deal for the balance of his arb. years +1 how would you being a SF fan think Cain would feel about that?
Posted by: philsWSchamps | December 03, 2008 at 01:41 PM
Man, didn't realize that the $10M for Howard was in year one. My arb estimates could almost double in that case.
Yes and word is Howard is going to ask for 15+ million in arbitration this year. He will always go year to year.
Posted by: philsWSchamps | December 03, 2008 at 01:42 PM
Pedroia has made the same splash awards and all. Same size!! I think a contract liked his would be good for both sides.
"The 25-year-old second baseman earns a signing bonus of $1.5 million and a salary of $1.5 million in 2009, followed by salaries of $3.5 million, $5.5 million and $8 million in what would have been his three years of arbitration eligibility. He would earn $10 million each in 2013 and 2014. A team option to pay him $11 million in 2015 or buy him out for $500,000."
Posted by: GiantsBob | December 03, 2008 at 01:51 PM
I'm not sure you find any GM right now that would take Pedroia over Lincecum. That said, the comparison is fair.
Assuming Lincecum stays healthy and produces at a similar level (no guarantees of that) I would expect his arb years look like:
YR1: $8m
YR2: $11m
YR3: $13m
If he were to hit FA you would be looking at $20m+/year - easily more valuable than CC. If the Giants are going to buy out his arb years + 3 FA years they best be prepared to pay up with a record breaking deal.
Posted by: bjsguess | December 03, 2008 at 02:33 PM
I say give him a nice deal with fatty incentives. Like for his arb years say 7-11 milion. Then free agency 12-16 mil. But if wins o so many games with an era under whatever then he gets an extra 5 mil or so. Stuff like that.
Posted by: AriGoldisaG | December 03, 2008 at 05:40 PM
http://www.mercurynews.com/giants/ci_10968466?nclick_check=1
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/11/odds-and-ends-h.html
Posted by: kdub | December 03, 2008 at 07:22 PM
LOCK HIM UP!
Posted by: Leland11 | December 03, 2008 at 07:49 PM
Buyout his years under team control, $40MM/5 years.
Posted by: kdub | December 03, 2008 at 08:26 PM