Mets Rotation Plans

"For Oliver Perez's slot, the Mets want to either re-sign Perez or sign Derek Lowe. Randy Wolf, Jon Garland, and possibly Tim Redding are the backup plans to these two."

If I was a Mets fan, this is the exact plan I would want to hear at this point. The Mets simply can't afford to take a big hit in Ollie's spot, and either retaining him or replacing him with Lowe are the only really solid options.

I think Niese would fine as the fifth starter behind a good front four, but I could see bringing in Colon or Garcia, or maybe even bringing back Pedro, who will likely bounce back some next season.

No way I sign Eric Milton though, he sucks.

I'd take Pedro back over them hands down. At least he has greatness to bounce back to instead of being a journeyman. Hopefully it doesn't come to that though. I want Lowe or Perez.

I think that Lowe is asking for 4 years and 62 million, he won't get that from anyone but the Yanks. The Mets do not want to go crazy with money, I hope that OP re-signs with them, or Lowe would come here for 3 years, 45 million. It doesn't seem as though the Bernard Madoff Ponzi scheme has affected the Mets plans, even though according to the Times, Fred Wilpon's company, Sterling Equities, lost millions in that fraud.

that is one ugly rotation

"I think that Lowe is asking for 4 years and 62 million, he won't get that from anyone but the Yanks."

I think in the end Lowe is going to find 4 years and $15M+ from somebody, he's too good and pitching is too valuable. Probably won't get much more than 4/60, and something like 3/51 ($17M per) could be more likely, but I just love Lowe in that rotation next season.

What's your definition of solid pitcher soxsider? Below league average? Then yes, Garland would fit that definition.

BTW - The Bill James handbook has the pitchers projections for 2009:

Wolf: 10-12 / 4.29 ERA
Garland: 10-11 / 4.38 ERA
Perez: 11-12 / 4.53 ERA
Lowe: 14-9 / 3.60 ERA

Ohh yeah, they also have Maine at 9-8/3.98 and Pelfrey at 11-12/4.35 - Santana at 18-7/3.01

Good Luck with THAT Rotation UNLESS you sign Lowe, I think you're in a bit of trouble...

There really is no downside to signing Colon. The guy is only a couple of years removed from a Cy Young performance. If he performs well for the Mets than awesome. If he quits on them then see ya later.

Not sure what the starting pitching market will look like in the next couple of offseasons or if the Mets will have the money to spend like they do this offseason but Randy Wolf makes too much sense to not grab him. Short term contract plus they dont have to get embarrassed trying to hit him anymore.

"BTW - The Bill James handbook has the pitchers projections for 2009:

Wolf: 10-12 / 4.29 ERA
Garland: 10-11 / 4.38 ERA
Perez: 11-12 / 4.53 ERA
Lowe: 14-9 / 3.60 ERA

Ohh yeah, they also have Maine at 9-8/3.98 and Pelfrey at 11-12/4.35 - Santana at 18-7/3.01

Good Luck with THAT Rotation UNLESS you sign Lowe, I think you're in a bit of trouble..."

The fact that you actually take that projection as fact is hilarious. What were last years?

"IMO, grab Lowe or Perez (I prefer Lowe), and then grab Colon or Pedro on an incentive based contract to take the 5 spot, with Niese in AAA ready to take his shot when someome gets hurt."

Yes.

This should be New York's plan. This exactly.

Go after Ollie or Lowe to fill the spot in the rotation, preferably Lowe because he's more consistent and durable.

Then go after Pedro, Colon or Garcia for the fifth spot. Those guys are all former aces, and they all showed some indications last season that they haven't lost it completely. Personally, I think Pedro would be ideal, as his big issue last season was control. His fastball was at the same speed, and his offspeed stuff didn't appear to lose much bite. Generally, pitchers gain most of their control back during their second year post surgery. Pedro could very well bounce back next season and be a very solid starter, which would make him a massive bargain.

There's one final thing I'd add to the plan though: Inquire on Ben Sheets. This guy is a legitimate ace, straight up. He still made 31 starts in 2008, so it's not like he's falling apart completely. If he can stay healthy, he's going to be a massive steal for whoever signs him. If the Mets can land him on a two year deal, something like 2/28 or 2/30 with an option, then they should seriously look into that.

As for Garland, just pretend he's Jason Marquis, and then decide what you think of him. Because that's basically what he is.

As for Garland, just pretend he's Jason Marquis, and then decide what you think of him. Because that's basically what he is.

I guess a decent #5 starter then, Innings eater. If you score for him, he'll have a winning record. He gives up more hits than IP, and doesn't stike out many batters, so the ball is put into play.. it will be interesting to see how your new ballpark is.. anyone know if it is seen as a hitters or pitchers park yet??

Citi Field is designed as a pitcher friendly park. You never for sure until it's played in, but they say it could be more of a pitcher's park than Shea.

philsWSchamps,

I must say that you write some of the most well thought out posts on this site.

With that said...

I say the Mets go with whoever they can get cheaper (OP/Lowe) and then for the 5 spot maybe consider Pedro on a incentive based contract (innings pitched).

Posted by: ksuth | December 17, 2008 at 10:47 AM

Ksuth,

thank you. I'm admittedly not a "stat geek" and have never read the "Handbook" while realizing that may be heresy around here and while i'm opening up a can of worms here do believe that being "clutch" is a statistic but is difficult to calculate because every situation is different.

And as a phils fan, I'd root for Lowe/Pedro combo vs Perez/Wolf (although I don't think they'd do that many lefties anyway).

Acutally on second though I'd prefer Brandon Knight and Jonathan Niese as the Mets 4th and 5th starters.

I hope no one takes this the wrong way, but the Bill James projections are known far and wide as the worst and least predictable of actual success. No one should be taking them with more than a grain of salt. James is a very smart guy, but his prediction model is horrendous.

Man, Derek Lowe really wants to make up for that contract he signed with Depo.

16-17 mil a year?

As a Dodger fan, I do like Derek Lowe, but I would never think of signing him at that price. I wouldn't go higher than 12 or so. Yes he's durable and yes he's a smart pitcher, but he's not the youngest guy in the world and he doesn't carry a staff. Good number 2, maybe 3, but 16-17 should be ace money or close to it.

Also, I'm willing to bet that for the rest of his career he will never duplicate his performance during the second half of this season.

"Seriously people. Projections can be way, way off. Stop putting oh so much stock into them."

While I agree, there's a lot of worth in putting some stock in them when evaluating.

"exactly who other than the Mets would pay that price (16-17MM) for Lowe? How is it that he thinks he has ANY leverage??"

I could see the Red Sox, Cubs (if they trade Marquis like was mentioned earlier), Angels all getting into it.

I certainly think he has leverage as the best healthy arm on the market left.

Ok so taking these prediction you love, and looking at the top four starters for each team since the 5th isnt determined yet for either team (yes I know our fourth isn't determined yet either, but there is no way we don't sign Perez if we don't get Lowe). With that said, these projections show the phillies four starters at 51/40 and the Mets four starters at 49/39 if we get Perez rather than Lowe. Not much of a difference...so I wonder, do you think you guys are in trouble as well?

here we go,

haha. I think the Phils will be just fine. YOu keep stocking up on RH relievers, we'll keep stocking up on LH hitters. Feliciano's looking tired already!!

Seriously though, I think our offense is better than yours as well as our bench and I still think our bullpen is "slightly better" even with Putz and KROD. THey're not pitching every day are they???

As much as I hate to agree with you philsWSchamps, I agree with you. If Lidge has a year anything like last year, and if the rest of the bullpen is just as solid, the Mets are going to need at least one solid lefty reliever. It'll happen though. Omar just said this morning that he's not done yet. I predict acquisitions of at least one of each in lefty relievers and starters before the offseason is over with.

when i read this i felt sick but the only name there that interest me is lowe and 16-17 a year...what is this game coming to? of course, the phils should have spent more...but the price for lowe wont go down w the yanks and sox around. the mets pay 17 for lowe then what can you do? carrasco is pitching very well venezuela and the baseball gods will make sure moyer has a better season than lowe.

The nasty little secret is that Ollie Perez kind of sucked last year. He pitched into the 8th inning a grand total of twice all season and walked a batter every other inning. Hitters only had a .276 BABIP against him, so his season looked okay cosmetically, but as a Mets fan I'm not all that psyched about signing Ollie to a long-term deal.

When I seriously think about it, Picturing Ollie imploding in those late summer games when the Mets are up 4-0 after the first inning, and he gives it all back.. make me sick. I know he has some great games, but the up and down needs to stop. Lowe will give you consistency from start to start, ground balls and has some fight in a big spot too. To let 2 million a season get in the way now is crazy, the ownership needs to MAN UP and bring it home this season.

No one predicted JJ Putz, so I think we'll get some sort of shocker, via trade perhaps, in a lefty reliever.

I'm not worried about the stereotype. The Mets will get whoever they end up getting and I just have my wishlist and end up routing for whoever we have when the season starts. Omar doesn't seem to be getting ALL Latinos this offseason anyway.(see Robertson/Putz/Green/Reed).

overall the phillies underachieved at the plate and still put up decent numbers and got a title. i think victorino will continue to improve,chase will be healthy and get an mvp.howard who knows?hopefully he has one more puhols like season left in him. we know j-ro will be good or great. ibanez should be better than pat.(so happy i dont have to watch him run) and while i agree with gm amaro just a bit in that our lefty heavy lineup is more versatile than it appears on paper but we need a righty. someone mentioned a. beltre,would be awesome but a dream. check out sheets or a semi-sleeper like redding?bc you can bet one of the top 4 will get injured,beat his wife outside the stadium or shoot himself in the leg at a nightclub or just suck.everyone except for hamels is a crap shoot.(moyer might look 46) we need to surprise everyone with 1 or 2 impact moves. those title windows close quick, spend some dough ruben! mets looking at lefty ohman, the german's not too bad, damn i wanted to use the word sheizen so bad. phils need to fire back!

Losing the inconsistency would be the sole purpose of signing Lowe over Perez.

On any given day, Ollie can dominate, because his raw stuff is ace quality. But he's so inconsistent with his command and control that he gets himself into trouble quite often, while Lowe generally keeps his team in every game.

As for Jayson Werth, I'm not exactly a scout, but he seemed to be legit last season. He's a plus defensive RF and he flashed good 25 HR power as well as good plate discipline, and last season was his first real shot at everyday playing time.

the phillies need to conjure up some deal for that mutant swamp monster 3rd baseman for the marlins. offer a few of those marginal pitchers we have and a prospect.

stellar,

wow you never struck me as quite the jerk, but here goes.

I apologize. I didn't realize that you were referring to his lefty/righty splits.

Oh and you act like he played the first two months in a platoon role. His AB's per month:

April: 76
May: 52 (less due to injury)
June: 47 (injury as well)
July: 62
August: 83
September: 95

And yes he does (as you noted) extremely well against lefty's so i think he can more than make up for it. He's also a solid fielder with a plus arm and can steal 25-30 bases given the opportunity and if he's in the "right spot" in the batting order for that.

He'll do just fine. I'm tone down ever so slightly for you my prediction for him for the year: .280 28HR 100RBI 25-30 SB. That will still be far better than Church will do in right in Citi Field.

Is it possible for the Mets to sign Lowe and Uehara? I think a battle between Uehara and Niese would be good for the 5th spot. I don't think Niese is ready yet. All he has is an okay fastball and a lolly-pop curve that can be left hanging. I also like Ohman for the bullpen.

Jayson werth had a good year but I can't see him hittin 100 rbi or 28 hrs.
Never mind the ballpark he plays in is easy to hit 30 hr. How doesn't ryan howard hit 80 home runs a.year when he plays there 81 days in a year. Jose reyes would drive in 100 rbis in the leadoff position. The phillies number are inflated.

How does a concussion work.
Does ryan church go back to normal
If he doesn't he can hit .300 25home runs and 80 rbis in citi field

Paulio,

you're right. I went back and looked at his (Church's) for last year and was thinking more about his stats from the previous years with Washington (something like 17HR and 70RBI's. I still think Werth will be better, but it will be fairly slight, and again that assumes Church is healthy

phils:

This discussion is over. I provided un-biased facts to you, and you come at me with blatant homerism.

He hit .273 last year after facing an abnormally high percentage of LHP. Now all of a sudden he's going to increase his average by facing more RHP? Really?

And 100 RBIs for Werth? Dream on.

Career OPS+:

Church: 111
Werth: 109

But hey, Werth looks like a lion, so he must be better.

Right?

i think omar should get lowe and garland or wolf for the 5th starter and thats probaly the best rotation in the league Sanata, Lowe, Pelfrey, Maine, Garland or Wolf sounds good to me

I stopped listening to you when you said he had a stronger arm than church.

BULLSHIT

Posted by: beastOftheEast | December 17, 2008 at 04:15 PM

Beyond the boxscore has him (werth) as the 5th best RF'er last year and Church is WAY down the list. I'd assume that's due to his injuries and the type of injury (concussions) but Jayson Werth is, IMO the better fielder.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/11/13/660346/2008-rf-defense-by-pmr

oh and stellar,

come off your high horse. And why did you never respond to the fact that you were wrong when you basically called him a platoon player (he's not medicore against RH, just not as good as he is against lefties). He only sat vs the best of the best RH's (Webb, Lincecum). Maybe he faced more LH's because there are more LH's in our division. Oh and another reason is that the Phils had to justify the 2 year 13MM contract for Jenkins. I'll bet if they could take that back and spend that $6.5MM per year elsewhere they would.

You could have chosen the tact that scribbletone did and slightly disagree, but for some reason you chose to come off like a "horses' ass" by your tone but everyone can tell that by all your posts. And trust me as far as fans go, IMO i'm the least of the "homers" around here.

"come off your high horse. And why did you never respond to the fact that you were wrong when you basically called him a platoon player (he's not medicore against RH, just not as good as he is against lefties). He only sat vs the best of the best RH's (Webb, Lincecum). Maybe he faced more LH's because there are more LH's in our division. Oh and another reason is that the Phils had to justify the 2 year 13MM contract for Jenkins. I'll bet if they could take that back and spend that $6.5MM per year elsewhere they would."

People tend to leave conveniently leave out flawed parts of their arguments and focus on they parts the can defend, myself included, and perhaps yourself included ;-). I have challenged you a couple of times to why you consider Lidge so above K-Rod, and while you refuted other parts of my post, you conveniently ignored the Lidge/K-Rod comparison ;-). We are all guilty of it. As for Church and Werth as fielders, they are both very good. In the limited sample size I have of Werth as a fielder, I have been impressed, but Church was also outstanding out in RF before the concussions. He was not the same player at all post-concussion, in any area of the game.

"People tend to leave conveniently leave out "

AHHHHH!!!!!!!

"Don't forget that Jayson Werth is a very good base stealer, and he is a better fielder and has a better arm than Church."

He's probably a better fielder than Church. But maybe not his arm? Have you seen Church throw? His arm is a laser that is accurate. I believe he used to be a pitcher. Everytime he throws it, I am shocked and appalled at how accurate and fast he is. I'd love to see him pitch.

Tango's fanbook agrees that Church's arm is amazing.

2009 predictions

church
290 20-25 homeruns 85-100 rbis 5 sb

werth
275 25-30 homeruns 90- 100 rbis 20-30 sb

the differences are because of the ball park they play in

citizens bank park is the best hitters park

shea was a pitchers park

werth is a better defener but has a stronger and more accurate arm.

no joke throws to home arm always one hops.

If I have to pick between Perez and Lowe. Gimme Perez. At least we know what we get in New York. If I have to pick between Wolf, Garland and Redding. Gimme Garland.

nrmaxi completely agree. Sign Pedro for about 1 million dollars and put him as the 5th starter. If he gets hurt just bring up Neise. It has very little risk and its a hell of a lot better then signing Garland or Wolf to 3 year deals

tinski,

are you kidding me? The Wilpon's cheap? Every team with an owner not named Steinbrenner would kill for your ownership? You are paying for 3 CLOSERS. You're payroll will likely be over 140 million. You need to realize how good you have it.

Oh and IF you ever did get any two of Lowe, Perez, Manny, I'd admit that you'd hands down be the team to beat in the NL East.

I think Werth will regress as a full time player since he'll be facing more righties. I think Church is do for a better year if he can stop with the concussions.

Posted by: stellar | December 17, 2008 at 01:31 PM

No you inferred it, plus you also referred to him as a "part time player" which he was not. Get your facts straight!

And Reyes, Victorino and Rollins are all switch-hitters, nice try. Like i said if you want to be a jerk, you've got to be right 100% of the time, IMO.

And Ramirez last year hit poorly against lefties. you going to "worry" about him? expect his stats to drop? no of course not.

Wright hit over .100 points higher vs lefties than righties last year. Guess Manual should bench him vs righties, huh? No that would be stupid.

Again all this sounds stupid, but you're the one that had to have an attitude about it, unlike scribbletone that calmly said that he may not do that good, but he should do OK.

wow. ok here goes. You said that Werth will regress as a full time player. If he's not a full time player he's got to be a part time player, no? Simple inferrence.

again it was maybe a max of 20 games where I said already they had to JUSTIFY paying Geoff Jenkins. It certainly wans't because Jenkins was better, it was because he was being paid $6.5 million. THe original intent in the offseason was to platoon Werth and Jenkins and very early in the season Werth went to Manual and said he wanted to play every day. Manual said for him to prove it and he did. Soon after April 15th you rarely if ever saw Jenkins, except against AS I SAID BEFORE the best righty's in the league. Webb, Lincecum. GEESH.

forget it, you'll never admit when you're wrong. I can see that now. Oh and he was injured for about 15-20 of those games but I'm sure you'll come up with some story on that too.

HE WAS THE STARTING RF SINCE APRIL 15th or so. End of story.

okay.. time for Bill James Handbook Projections!

2009

Church: 444 AB / 62 R / 16 HR / 69 RBI / 3 SB / .275

Werth: 516 AB / 88 R / 25 HR / 89 RBI / 21 SB / .279

Werth will have more starts and AB's next year, YES (assuming he's healthy) and he'll be just fine. I stick by my prediction and thanks FyreKnight. That works fine for me,

.280 25HR 89 RBI's 21 SB. That is very close to pat's stats (less hR's but better average). That's fine for a 5th or 6th hitter in the NL.

sorry philsWS...i dont know about lowell, i think he's at the end of the road.using madson as a trade chip is interesting though. going off the way he pitched down the stretch and being on a contract year, im sure he is going to be great and hit powerball at the end of the year with another team.he may pitch like mariano riv this year and prob will get money and years from the yanks. we may need that this year and lowell at third with a nursing home injury.yikes.but using madson and donald in a trade could probably fetch an impact player to help us repeat. i like cantu at third, very tough hitter and we could get creative and get him wo losing a big prospect. and as far as pitching rent one the old men for a year..randy or ask curt to come back a give us a season for old times sake.haha oitching is a tough one. i think carrasco pitches for the phils this year but a 1 yr rental will get us to next year when happ and cc will be ready for sure. damn we're the champs, cant we give someone a 1 yr to go out on top. why are we finished dealing!wake up ruben

Don't forget that Jayson Werth is a very good base stealer, and he is a better fielder and has a better arm than Church. Werth is an intimidating player because he is 6'6" and he looks like a lion. He is better than Church.

Posted by: viteminj | December 17, 2008 at 04:00 PM
--------------------------

Wow. I rarely react like I just did when I read things. All I can say is, just, WOW! Did you see Church last year in the field? Dude, the guy played absolute GG caliber defense, getting to everything. In fact, that was the first thing that impressed me about Church. Remember, he played CF in that spacious park in Washington, and now he's our RF. But what got me up in arms more than anything was the comment about their arms. Dude, I am sorry, but Church easily has one the best arms in the game, one of the strongest and most accurate arms in the game. He used to be a pitcher, for God's sake. Of course that doesn't automatically mean you will have a great arm, but it does say a lot. Church was known for having an absolute howitzer out there, along with an extremely quick release, and usually right on the money.

I am sorry to be so strong in this reply, and I don't know if you are a Phillies fan, but if you are, you shouldn't make definitive claims like this if you don't know for sure. Now, I won't go and say that Church is a better fielder with a better arm than Werth, because it's probably negligible, but please, there are people who read what you write and they will know if you are telling the truth or whether you are just being a biased fan.