Odds and Ends: Sheets, Moeller, Yankees

The Yankees World Series odds movign that much goes to show you just how stupid people are. Those odds don't mean they are the best team it means that the most people are betting on them to win. Vegas is going to make a lot of money off this winter's signings. Sabathia and Burnett do not make the Yankees the favorites by any means.

Just say no to Oliver.

Thats a suprise, a guy from the New York post thinks the yanks are instant favorites after signing a morbidly obese pitcher and an injury prone A.J burnett whose never had an era below 3.50

"I think now would be the perfect time for the Braves to jump back in for Peavy now that the price might be lower."

I've been thinking that too, but it sounds like Wren is playing hardball with Towers to try to get Peavy on the cheap. He's already said Yunel Escobar isn't going to be part of the package to get Peavy, which makes it that much harder to actually get Peavy. And I've heard that the Padres need to get Peavy's permission to facilitate a trade to the Braves; which makes a trade harder to do since it sounds like Peavy wants to be a Cub.

The Mets do not NEED Oliver Perez because the Phillies signed Ibanez. He still has to play other teams and is mediocre against teams not named the Yankees, Phillies, or Braves.

"Jack Curry of the New York Times writes that the Yankees are instant favorites for the World Series."

I completely agree how do these two signings make this a better team for 2009 than it was in 2008?? I mean long term yes CC and Burnett are great pitchers, but they are replaceing a pitcher who had a Cy young year last year and a league average pitcher in Pettite who gave them over 200 innings. These signings are replacing Ponson and the other 4-A starters they had out there. The Yankees real problem with pitching last year was injuries and ineffectivness not their veteran starters.

Now was Mussina gonna put up another 20 win year, prob not. But by the same time Pettite probably was gonna be a little better as well. And are Sabathia and Burnett gonna be as dominate when they don't have free agency looming? I just feel that the difference between Mussina/Pettite 2008 vs. Sabathia/burnett 2009 will be negligable and cost the Yankees $12 million dollars more. Is it better long term def. but this doesn't put them any closer to winning the WS this year. Esp. when you consider a number of players seem to be regressing, Posada, Matsui, even Jeter. Also the team still hasn't replaced the offensive producation of Giambi and Abreu.

The only thing the Yankees won so far is the payroll contest. I think they'll win it going away like last year.

RealityCheck needed for that's apparently a misnomer. Burnett's never had an ERA under 3.50? You mean except for the three times he did I guess? This supposed NEED for Ollie is overreaction to the now entirely LH middle of the Philthies order(Utley/Howard/Ibanez/Jenkins.

Dominican Yanks,
no it doesnt matter right now that hes fat and thats not my point. The real problem with him is that he crumbels under pressure (see 2007 playoffs) and didnt even want to come to NY because hes afraid of the media. And o yeah 6 years from now his weight might matter.

mac 1103 - how soon they forget - the Jays seem to love their new found role of victim - to match their hockey team's.

why must the mets tailor their team to match up against the phillies? they dont play them every game. the mets need a consistent starter like lowe, garland, marquis, or wolf.

Please do the Phils that favor and don't bring Oliver back. With both him and Tim Redding out of the division I'm one happy Phillies fan.

Posted by: philsWSchamps | December 13, 2008 at 12:37 PM

after the big signing of k-rod and the trade for j.j. putz we now have the best bullpen. Now the great omar minaya will resisn ollie and trade for marquis we will be better than the phillies.even if we dont get an outfielder.

A few points about the Yankees:

1. Sabathia may be fat or 300 LBS or whatever you want to accuse him of being. He's also 6'7" and has a clean slate of injury history. Bartolo Colon was 5'11", Pedro Martinez (despite not fat but certainly ineffective by his mid 30's) was under 6 feet. How many big pitchers at the top of their careers and among the best pitchers heading into their prime were absolutely washed up by 35?

2. Everyone keeps bringing up the payrolls, but if the Yankees signed one more pitcher for 10 million and didn't do another thing, they would have a payroll 30 million lower than last year AFTER arbitration estimates.

86 million came off the books, when you have a lot of money in payroll, you certainly can afford to spend it when it's off the books. They also have the possibility of 35 million coming off after '09 in Nady, Matsui and Damon alone. Add a year of Pettitte if he signs and that's 45 million.

3. Mussina won 20 games and the Yankees had no wins from Hughes and Kennedy. They used Ponson and Rasner during a division race. Sure Sabathia may replace Mussina's production and Burnett may eat up Pettitte's innings, but the theory is a full year of Joba, a loaded bullpen and presumably the same Pettitte along with Wang greatly improves this rotation.

Really what it comes down to is Pettitte would cancel himself out, and Sabathia/Wang/Burnett/Joba would have to replace nine starts of Joba, 100 innings of Wang and almost half a season each of Pavano/Rasner and company. How is nobody including the fact Wang won eight games last year into the equation? Even if you somehow want to argue Mussina and Pettitte of '08 vs Sabathia/Burnett/Pettitte (presumably) of '09, you still leave out Wang and Joba, who should be doubling and tripling their innings as starters. And instead of Kennedy and Hughes going 0-9 they are now the insurance and a year older coming off excellent offseasons, with Mitre and other policies like Coke and Aceves who weren't options at the start of '08, being there for the start of '09

ya i really don't agree your bullpen is better. Lidge is better than KROD and IF Putz is healthy Madson is just as good.

noo brad lidge had a career year and not likely to do that again.K-rod on the other side had a down year. J.J Putz had a injury for most of the year but when he return he posted a era around 2.5. oliver perez showed he is clutch when it matters. our lineup is just as good or even better then the phillies lineup.

I have to comment after reading Dave Perkin's article. Everyone that complains about the yankees payroll needs to understand a few key points:

First and foremost understand this is a business, not an intramural league. Everyone involved in this game is out to make a money. This includes players, owners, agents, etc.

Players who show consecutive years of success will eventually be offer more money, and will go where that money takes them, period. Agents will ensure this, regarless what team gives it to them.

Owners that sell more tickets, more merchandise, and increase their out of state fan base will in turn increase their revenues/profits. This allows them increase their quality of product, keeping their existing customers happy while adding new ones.

If you can run a business spending $200MM/yr on your product and still turn a profit, congratulations on your success. If an owner refuses to do what it takes to grow their business they will notice it in slumping ticket sales and fan base.

As a yankee fan, I encourage the Red Sox to go after great players. That only leads to better baseball and a better rivalry.

For other fans, if you want to help your team... buy a jersey... go to a game. Not only when your team is winning, but when their struggling as well. Put money in the organization so they can build a better product for you. The only problem is, its up to your owner to spend it on his team rather than put it in his pocket. I guess I'm just lucky that my owner is willing to reinvest in his team and give me the best possible product. Thanks Steinbrenner's, you have my loyalty.

Hey Perkins, if a smaller Toronto newspaper came to you complaining that you have done too good of a job giving customers a quality product, what would you say? What if he asked to you cut your advertising budget and print your newspaper on brown paper bags, what would you say? Nothing... you would laugh him out of your office.

As fans we are passionate and want to win. Well it starts from the top folks. I'd direct your attention there, rather than at other organizations. Everyone has a fair shot when running a business, some just do a better job than others.

This is my opinion and welcome others to share their views and comments.

steve06 wrote:

I completely agree how do these two signings make this a better team for 2009 than it was in 2008?? I mean long term yes CC and Burnett are great pitchers, but they are replaceing a pitcher who had a Cy young year last year and a league average pitcher in Pettite who gave them over 200 innings. These signings are replacing Ponson and the other 4-A starters they had out there. The Yankees real problem with pitching last year was injuries and ineffectivness not their veteran starters.

Now was Mussina gonna put up another 20 win year, prob not. But by the same time Pettite probably was gonna be a little better as well. And are Sabathia and Burnett gonna be as dominate when they don't have free agency looming? I just feel that the difference between Mussina/Pettite 2008 vs. Sabathia/burnett 2009 will be negligable and cost the Yankees $12 million dollars more. Is it better long term def. but this doesn't put them any closer to winning the WS this year. Esp. when you consider a number of players seem to be regressing, Posada, Matsui, even Jeter. Also the team still hasn't replaced the offensive producation of Giambi and Abreu.
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The signing of CC and AJ may not solve all of our problems but the two of them along with a healthy Wang and Joba can give the Yanks one of the best 1-4 in baseball. Should we not have improved on the pitching?

Signing CC and Burnett doesn't make the Yankees favorites for anything. First of all, what are the odds that Burnett will even make it through the year healthy? And what is so impressive about Burnett? He doesn't strike me as a top tier pitcher! Second, haven't they figured out that it is not necessarily the highest payroll that wins (see Phillies and Rays!) Getting the talent is one thing. Having team chemistry is the key! Let the Yankees sign every top player for zillions of dollars! They still won't win the Series this year!

Here's the break down in runs scored based upon last years stats, substituting Matsui's and Posada's 2007 rbis + runs - 20%.

Swisher = 157
Cano = 142
Jeter = 157
Arod = 207
Posada = 145 (2007 - 20%)
Damon = 166
Melky/Gardner = 113
Nady = 173
Matsui = 162 (2007 - 20%)
Projected 2009: 1,422

The 2007 Yanks runs + rbi totals= 1,897

2007 Starting 9: 1,637

The 2008 Yanks runs + rbi totals= 1,547 (5TH in AL, 7th in majors)

2008 Starting 9: 1,473

What was the difference between 2007 and 2008?

Arod: Runs (-39) Rbis (-53)
Cano: Runs (-23) RBis (-21)
Posada/Molina: Runs (-49) Rbis (-59)
Matsui 07/-Matuis+Nady 08: Runs (-31) Rbis (-18)

The difference between the 2007 Yanks and the projected 2009 can be seen in the down production of Cano+Arod (-136) and injuries to Posada + Matsui (-155).

In 09 you will have an entire year of Nady in the same line-up with, hopefully, a healthy Matsui and Posada for the 1st time.

Abreu's and Giambi's 08 total of 364 + Posada's replacement's total of 64 + Matsui's replacement (Nady) total of 66 totals = 494 runs + rbis

vs

Matsui's 2007-20% = 162 + Nady's total of 173 + Posada's 2007-20% of 145 + Swisher's total of 157 = 637.

That's a + 143.

Questions for 09: Who will be the #3 hitter in front of Arod? Can Swisher improve upon his 08 production?

Things to be optimistic for: Hopefully an up year for Cano and Arod and a healthy Matsui and Posada. A full year of Nady.

Mets bullpen is better than the Phillies IF Putz can return to his former self. K-Rod in the NL East will post an ERA in the low 2's. Putz can match that, or do even better.

The two wildcards are Lidge and Putz.

exactly how is Lidge a wildcard? He has nothing to prove. He did his proving last year when he went without a blown save. Putz needs to prove he's healthy as well as that he's OK with being a setup guy something his agent has already incinuated he's not. Wait until July when KROD has 3-4 blown saves in key situations and the talk starts of WHY isn't Putz the closer?

"why must the mets tailor their team to match up against the phillies? they dont play them every game. the mets need a consistent starter like lowe, garland, marquis, or wolf"

As a replacement for Ollie, only Lowe makes sense. I don't know about you, but I will take Ollie over Garland, Marquis and Wolf any day. Especially Marquis and Garland. Don't even have to think about it.

"As we learned last year (Tigers) signing or trading for big name players will come back to bite you."

How exactly did getting Miguel Cabrera bite the Tigers? Their problem was the pitching, and it still would have been even if Dontrelle Willis had pitched like it was 2005. They won't regret trading for Cabrera, although I suppose they already regret giving Willis that extension.

Beimel would be a huge signing for detroit, i live in arizona and saw Beimel pitch against the diamondbacks quite a bit this year...and Biemel had great stuff. give him the keys to the closers role

I am curious why the Rangers are thinking about Sheets. If they have to trim payroll. (which in itself is odd since they have the 6th largest media market and only had payroll larger than 9 other teams at 68M)

I see the rangers trading Milwood/Padilla for youth and seeing what they have with in-house pitching. Then working towards 2010 and beyond.

But rumors are they are interested in Sheets and Randy Johnson..

Espcially since they want Johnson to mentor thier young tallent.. Wow.. I hope its not mentoring with how to deal with the media. :-)

if sheets end up in NY...

Sabathia
Wang
Burnett
Sheets
Joba

that is a real deal rotation. of coarse if they are healthy. that is a world series type of contending team.

According to STATS inc, the mets would have won the east by 6 games last year if games ended after the eighth inning.

Well then I guess it sucks for you that they don't play just 8 innings.

This argument is really annoying personally.

Do you know that according to MLB (not Stats Inc) that the Phils won the World Series?