Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Pirates, Hudson, Tigers, Braves, Dunn, Yankees

Yankees fans against a salary cap? I am shocked!

Lets start the discussion:
Pujols- 8yrs/232mil. 29MM/yr

Remember: this most likely will not be the yankees making an offer (because of Tex), though I am sure they will try anyway.

Derrick Goold looked at the Pujols question following Mark Teixeira's signing last month.

Here's the link:
http://www.stltoday.com/blogzone/bird-land/bird-land/2008/12/pujols-pending-payday-does-teixeira-mark-the-price/

It's actually a little scary for a Cards fan to consider. Will the team be able to retain him? If he's willing to defer payment, then maybe. If not, I weep for our team.

"Yankees fans against a salary cap? I am shocked!"

Honestly, a salary cap would help the Yankees significantly. What is really needed is a salary floor.

Lowe is very far off from Peavy. I agree totally with Infield Chatter, that's all I was trying to say the other day when everyone freaked out. Braves overpayed for a very good mid-tier guy, asking him to be their ace.

It would be really interesting to see how much money the Yanks and other teams payed to the Marlins last year in revenue sharing. I think I read somewhere before that they recieved about $30 mil one year. Wasn't their payroll some absurdly low $22 mil?

The Infield Chatter blog post places way too much focus on the 2009 season. I don't think the Braves expect Lowe to be the guy at the top of their rotation long term. I'm guessing their hope is Hudson might be able to fill that role next year, and that either Jurrjens or Hanson can grow into it in the near future. I think the Lowe signing has as much to do with 2010-2012 as it does with 2009.

As for the terms of the contract, I don't think the Braves overpayed in terms of salary, but in terms of years. Lowe at 3 year 45 million is a very good signing with the market we've seen for pitching recently. The 4th year definitely adds a lot of risk, but given Lowe's track record of health, I think its a risk the Braves were willing to assume.

Lets start the discussion:
Pujols- 8yrs/232mil. 29MM/yr

Remember: this most likely will not be the yankees making an offer (because of Tex), though I am sure they will try anyway.

Posted by: Ted Williams | January 16, 2009 at 12:38 PM

Based on what? When have they made a play for a guy without a position? A-Rod is the closest example and they had a hole at third base he was willing to fill. Pujols is a 1B body and probably wouldn't be able to do much else except DH. So why make that comment? Just useless sarcasm?

If anything, that's a guy the Red Sox would go after because Lowell will be done by then, Ortiz a hitting corpse of himself and Youk could move to 3rd, plus they missed out on Tex.

nixa37, When you are signing a 35 year old (To be 36 on June 1st) pitcher, you're not signing him for 2 or 3 years down the line (When he'll be anywheres from 37-39 years old), you're looking for the production now and hoping there will be enough left in the tank in 2-3 years to justify the 4th year you had to give to him.

That's what's kinda puzzling about these moves to me, because even with these additions they don't actually think they've done enough to make a run for a division, do they? Because I don't see it.

Yanksfan,

I think there are debt covenants that MLB instituted a few years back. These were put into place so that teams couldn't go on wild spending sprees and bankrupt themselves.

Because of that, teams have to have a certain debt to equity ratio and if they fall below this then MLB either talks to them to see what is happening or they step in and make recommendations.

So, it is EASY for the Yankees to spend $1.3 billion on a stadium (especially when some governemnt officials allegedly inflate property values) and they are having the public pay for the bonds. It is also EASY for the Yankees to give out $400 million dollars in contracts.
That is because teh Yankees ahve so many revenue streams and so much cash flow coming in that their debt to equity ratios are not really a problem to handle as contrasted to some "small market" teams.

I mean, don't you ask yourself WHY teams like the Marlins, Pirates, Royals, Reds and Twins don't go out and blow a butt load of money on top shelf talent each and every year?

Do you REALLY think the Pirates like to be known as a team that has had 17 consecutive LOSING seasons? Don't you think THEY would have liked to have added Sabathia to their starting rotation and Teixiera as their First Baseman? Don't you think those two players would have helped them tremendously?

I do. So, there HAS to be a reason WHY those "small market" teams DON'T do this. The debt covenants are the reason why.

MLB doesn't want a team to spend big money one year and then file for bankruptcy two years later when their BIG plans fall through.

This is why the Marlins build their team up so as to have a few winning seasons and then have a fire sale every five or so years.

2500 a game*

ctownboy:

I agree with most of what you said, specfically the draft slotting. However, I don't agree with the foreign player policy simply because that would kill players coming over from the Japaneese leagues. Most of these players are "professional" ballplayers already, just not in the US. Most of these guys are already making millions of dollars and are well into their late 20's or 30's compared to the avg high school or college kid that's being drafted. In reality, they're FA just from another country. As for the other foreign players, is it really fair to a team who's invested time and money in scouting these players, many of them from when they were 14, 15 and 16, to then have those players exposed to other teams who have't committed similar resources themselves (baseball academies, international scouting, etc)? There are some mlb teams that don't even have DSL leagues or academies over there. Why should they be able to acquire the benefits of someone elses cultivation.

FTW, I understand your point, but you are still missing one piece, its that there are not enough superstars that make it FA to have all 30 teams have one.

And also its a great point about the floor, and imagine if he had used the NFL number which is 56% of revenue of the league goes to the players, in other words a floor of 107 million dollars and a cap of 125. Its not a question of it would give teams a better shot at the best players that it would, but how much would it really restrict the Yankees, if you think about it, they could simply tell players they have a better shot in New York to signing a massive endorsement deals, thus increasing their salaries that way.

As a fan of a small market team, even if we were able to get a massive upgrade in talent i am not sure we would have the revenue streams in San Diego to support a 100 million dollar payroll at this point.

I think a Cub offer is very likely for Albert with Aramis/Lee coming off the books, and Vitters on his way. Would seem to fit perfectly. However, would Pujols view a Cub offer in a negative light because of Cardinal ties, or a positive one because of his Midwest ties? I would imagine he would find it nice to be so close to his St. Louis roots, but it's a tough pill to swallow I'd imagine for him imagining playing for such a rival.

ctown:

I'm not informed enough to make a retort to your references to the mlb policy about debt to revenue rations in place. However, what I do know is this. In 2005 13 mlb teams contributed $312 mil to the other 17 teams. The Yanks payed the most with $76 mil and Boston was 2nd with $52 mil. The Marlins, Rays and Royals each receeived $30 mil each. That year:

The Marlins payroll went from 60 mil in 05 to 15 mil in 06.

Tampa's payroll went from $30 mil in 05 to $35 mil in 06.

Royals' payroll went from $36 mil to $47 mil.

Where's the money going to? It's not being spent on mlb players? Tell me what more you want the Yanks to do. I'm sure that the Rays probably received about $25-$30 mil last year in revenue sharing w/ the Yanks and Boston being the biggest contributors again. So in reality we (NY and Boston teams) payed the Rays to kick our ass.es last year. Yeah...that sounds fair. And seeing as how the Yanks, Boston, Dodgers and Angeles , the 4 biggest markets, have accounted for 3 WS rings in the last 8 years, I would say the system is working good enough. If there IS a salary cap installed and a team can't support the floor payroll then maybe we should consider contrition, because making a team like the Yanks, Boston or the LA teams spend less AND give more to it's competitors doesn't sound fair at all.

The players association wouldn't support a cap for the simple reason that it would take big market team out of bidding for FA, meaning they would't get that much money. Let say only 4 teams can afford a few superstars (Pirates, KC, Nationals & Marlins) for example. We all know these teams won't pay much, so what does a player do? Settle for 5-10 million dollars less a year. I don't see this happening.

My point is he doesn't rely on velocity to get guys out. Losing a MPH or 2 might cause guys to start making better contact (i.e. more line drives; higher BABIP) with his pitchers, but it shouldn't cause much of a dip in his K rate and it shouldn't have a large effect on his BB rate either. The slight loss in velocity will also cause his sinker to drop a little more as gravity has slightly more time to act on the ball, which should help to offset any loss of velocity.

CubbyFan23,

I don't know if you were trying to compare Loaiza to Lowe or not, but if you are its a terrible comparison. While they may have similar strikeout rates, BB rates, and fastball velocity, Loiaza was a flyball pitcher that started to give up a lot more HRs once he lost that velocity. Since Lowe is a groundball pitcher, he's much less of a risk to have something similar happen to him.

I was comparing a pitcher with a lack of velocity losing more velocity. I am unaware of any studies that show groundball pitchers are less apt to perform any better as they lose velocity than others.

Yanksfan,

Did you ever consider that the Marlins might put a good team together and go into debt to do so?

So, for those two years they have a winning record they are running a deficit. Then they HAVE to blow the team up, go cheap and start all over again.

So that revenue sharing money would be going straight to the bank to bring down the team debt.

I would LOVE for the Yankees and Red Sox (and their fans) to have to go through that for a five year period and see how it feels.

well it does look like the braves will have 10-15 million left to spend. Glavine, Andruw, Abreu/Dunn, and possibly Ohman. Add that to what they've done and this team is a playoff contender

The Braves didn't overpay for Lowe. Lowe is better than Lohse, Silva, Meche, Suppan, hell Lowe is better than Zito. Just because he doesn't strike a lot of batters out and throw hard doesn't mean he isn't a good pitcher. He gets outs and he doesn't walk a lot of batters. Oh, and did I say he pretty much WILL give you 200 innings or very close to it. He doesn't get hurt.

paxterj, the DOB change usually happens with players that are sign out of the country to get a bigger signing bonus, b/c they are poor. Pujols went to college in the US and drafted.

Posted by: DominicanYanks | January 16, 2009 at 02:41 PM
-----------------------------------------------

Right, but he was born outside the US, and he would clearly appear to be a much better prospect if he was older than his competition every step of the way. There has been talk of this in baseball since Pujols' 1st or 2nd season in the league. I have no idea if its true or not, but its definitely something a team may want to take into account before they make him a contract offer.

nixa37, I think for Pujols to change his age, he would have to change his name (that is how they usually do it), using someone else name. But b/c he came to US, he must have had a US residence card which was obtain through his mother or father, meaning he can't change his name.

I hope you understand what I tried to explain.

Oh GOD.

Are people seriously comparing Loaiza to Lowe.

Totally, TOTALLY different pitchers.

1. Loaiza wins an Unlucky Pitcher Award. He had several years where his FIP was rather low (low 4s) and yet his ERA was still higher.

2. Look at Loaiza's K/BB and WHIP. Much worse than Lowe's. Much worse.

What you said is irrelevant. He didn't move to the US until he was 16. He easily could have used a falsified birth certificate, or even another person's birth certificate, to obtain a residence card once he and his family immigrated in 1996.

The Marlins have nable to been unable to sustain a fan base with ANY of the Florida teams. Even in 2003 when they made their WS march they only drew 1.3 million people, which was 900,000 below the NL league average. In 2004 it bumped by 400,000 and in 2005 up another 100,000 to 1.8 million attd. Even in their peak of 1.8 mil in 2005, they were still 700,000 off the mark of the NL avg. Both Florida teams have consistantly been in the bottom 5 in attendance as far back as 2001 (furthest my research shows). That's thru 1 ws run for both teams. I'm not trying to be insensitive but maybe baseball in those markets aren't viable. Maybe their fan base is just too little to support the franchize. That has more to do with what's going on in that market than it does their ability to field good teams.

nixa37, You see that is where I say he didn't. He needs to have the same last name. Also the DOB change is usually done by players who are poor, live outside the US and don't even go to school, all they do is play ball to get a contract. Pujols wasn't poor and had no need to do this. If we are going to question Pujols, we should question Manny as well.

Gotta love this quote from Forbes.com about Loria

" Meanwhile, team owner Jeff Loria continues to debase his franchise by not using the $30 million-plus revenue-sharing check he gets each year from baseball to keep talent"

that really is a huge issue that needs to be dealt with. Not just him, but I am sure a lot of owners do similar things. While not all of the money from revenue sharing should be ear-marked for player salaries, surely most of it should.

Lowe will continue to be a good pitcher I would believe. But just cause he is a sinker ball pitcher is not the reason. Its his location that counts; ie control. As he loses velocity he will have to adjust the start point of his sinker, not cause of the drop of velocity, but cause of the lack of spin, which causes it too drop. Its the same reason that some pitcher spike their curve ball, since it allows more force on the rotation of the ball, and as it rotates faster, it moves faster, thus harder sharper breaking balls, (see Beckett/Felix/Burnett). Its not the amount of velocity he loses, its how he will compensate for that loss of velocity that will determine how effective he can be.

As for a suspect sinker ball pitcher who lost velocity can didn't maintain would be Kevin Brown, thou he was also hampered by injuries, and the other one I can think of is Jason Marquis, who was good, thou not as good as Lowe before losing 3 mph on his fastball.

Timlin's another example of a player who throws a sinker who watched his ERA skyrocket as his velocity went down and he aged.

nixa37, You see that is where I say he didn't. He needs to have the same last name. Also the DOB change is usually done by players who are poor, live outside the US and don't even go to school, all they do is play ball to get a contract. Pujols wasn't poor and had no need to do this. If we are going to question Pujols, we should question Manny as well.

Posted by: DominicanYanks | January 16, 2009 at 03:15 PM
-----------------------------------------

Many times the birth certificates players have are just straight up fraudulent. They aren't necessarily a real birth certificate from another person.

Pujols had plenty of reason to do this considering the age he was when he moved to the US. If he was actually 18 instead of 16, he would have to catch on with a JC program and just hope that someone noticed him. Instead, since he was 16, he was able to build a reputation in high school and then get drafted after a pretty good season in JC. If he had been 18, there's a much smaller chance he would have been noticed and given a chance. Unless you're suggesting that Pujols had no interest in pursuing a career in pro baseball and it just kind of happened, then yeah he had a reason to make himself seem younger than he was for more reasons than just an initial signing bonus.

As for Manny, he didn't look extremely old for his age coming up, at least not to the extent Pujols did. That, combined with the circumstances of him moving to America has left some people suspicious, whether its fair or not.

nixa: Some Dominicans do come here for other reasons that to play baseball.

CubbyFan23,

Carmona was terrible this year because he lost his control and ability to strike people out. He also didn't have a track record of success at the big league level and his numbers in the minor didn't support the idea that he would be able to continue his 2007 performance. As for Timlin, he's already 42 years and remained a very good player until the age of 41. I'm guessing at some point during that period he lost some velocity while being able to maintain his performance.

As for it being easier for a batter to lift a slower sinker, its actually the exact opposite. Since the sinker is coming in slower, gravity has more time to act on it, causing the ball to be traveling downward at a faster rate as it crosses him plate. As such, it becomes even harder to get lift on the ball.

YanksFanSince78, that was exactly what I was trying to say. I mean you are talking about something illegal, which would be after being here in the US, to pose has someone else, including using that person's SS number.
Someone would only do this if you know for a fact that you will get a contract. But doing this in US could mean being deported.

Yeah but a slower sinker is harder to throw for a strike, or give the apperance of a strike, against major league hitters. For a sinker to be effective, thrown at a slower speed, the trajectory has to be higher at it's starting point. Any mlb hitter could see the sink on the ball sooner when thrown at a lower speed and lay off the pitch.

When did I imply that Pujols moved here only for the purpose of playing baseball? My point is, if he were 18 when he came over, any chance for a future in baseball, even at the collegiate level, likely would have been gone. As I've said all along, I'm not saying that Pujols is older than his listed age. Just that it is a possibility and a rumor that has been circulating around baseball for years. I think its just naive to dismiss it as a possibility. Its not a big deal, but it may be a small factor in the number of years a team will offer him if he becomes a FA.
__________________

You said that if he were 18 when he came to the states then he would have less likelyhood of being notcied by scouts. You're implying that the thinking of him and his parents would be, to committ this illegal act to facilitate a possible playing career.

YanksFanSince78, that was exactly what I was trying to say. I mean you are talking about something illegal, which would be after being here in the US, to pose has someone else, including using that person's SS number.
Someone would only do this if you know for a fact that you will get a contract. But doing this in US could mean being deported.

Posted by: DominicanYanks | January 16, 2009 at 03:40 PM
--------------------------------------------

What the hell are you talking about? When did I say he was posing as someone else? Clearly he wouldn't be using another person's SSN. He would have just presented the INS or whatever with a falsified birth certificate when he was applying for residency and they would then issue him identification indicating he was younger than he actually was.

And doing this could mean being deported? Really? How many people in the majors do we now know falsified their ages when playing here? How many have had to deal with any sort of actual legal issues because of it?

You also have to remember that Pujols moved here in 1996, long before the crackdown on things like this. Back then I don't think the INS really even payed all that much attention to things like birth certificates.

Ok, but we're not talking about your 80 year old "nana" or an underpriviledged kid. If Pujols intent were to become a professional baseball player at age 16 or 18 then why wouldn't he just go to one of the many baseball academies loacted in the Dominican Republic? You think it would be easier to catch the eye of a mlb team by forging documents, coming to the US, enrolling in highschool for 2 years, attending JC for a year w/ the hopes of being drafted? Dominican ballplayers are getting 100k signing bonuses thrown at them left and right. He hardly took the easier course if indeed, as you're asserting, his intentions in coming to the US was for the purpose of pursuing a mlb career.

Also, a Dominican player signed by a US team has a lot more incentive and ability to legally rectify the situation compared to a kid who doesn't have a contract at all.

Guys can't usually get away with floater pitches (though LaRoche, El Duke, and other have used them on occasion) because they are so slow that the batter has time to react. The whole point with a sinker is that its moving so fast its tough to gauge where it will cross the plate.
______________________

Your last sentence supports the arguement that if Lowe's sinker slips in velocity then it wouldn't be as effective.

Another point is that if gravity had that kind of effect it would be very hard to hang a pitch. A hanging breaking ball is one in which the rotation of the ball does not cause the ball to break down. Usually cause its thrown sideways, meaning the rotation is off the vertical axis of the ball by too much.

Posted by: AirmanSD | January 16, 2009 at 03:50 PM

As I already mentioned, breaking balls and sinkers are a completely different beast, but I'll try and address this one as well. Its possible to hang a pitch because the pitcher is already taking into account gravity when he throws the pitch. He "aims" the pitcher higher coming out of his hand to compensate for gravity and the effect of spin on the ball. When that spin isn't having any effect because the rotation is off, the ball will still end up higher than the pitcher intended even if gravity is still causing downward movement.

If you really want me to I can try and write up a long detailed post trying to get more into the physics and everything that goes into different pitches. Needless to say, its far, far more complex than your comments here indicate you believe it is.

nixa37: Don't be angry. No one is saying the possibility doesn't exist, but if you look at the motive and his options, chances are he didn't do it. I would trust his age more so than maybe Hanley Ramirez.

YanksFanSince78,

Are you really going to try and compare Lowe losing a MPH or two on his sinker to a floater pitch that comes in somewhere in the neighborhood of 60 MPH? Lowe's average FB velocity last year was 89.2, so are you really comparing a 60 MPH pitch to an 87-88 MPH pitch? Oh by the way, anyone want to guess what the average speed of Brandon Webb's sinker is? I'll give you a hint, Lowe could lose a MPH and still have a faster FB than Webb. Another interesting note is that Lowe's FB has actually increased in velocity over the past 4 years (only years I have data for) from 88.4 to 88.8 to 89.2 the past 2 seasons.

I think your underestimating the "civilization" of the Dominican Republic greatly. In most instances people who's documented age isn't the same as their actual, have done so intentionally. You know they do have an infrastructure there? And a school system. I joke, but seriously, I have tons of Dominican friends who would take extreme insult to what's being said. The DR is far from a "third world" existance. You don't have a bay this year and then wait a couple of years before getting a b.c.

I'm sorry, I understand that a slower sinker can be thrown still effectively when it comes to different pitchers (ie. Wang and Lowe) but I find it just too hard to believe that an individual player like Wang would have similar numbers if he dropped 3 mph in velocity or the same with Lowe. I can see the point about the ball being heavier, but if you lose control with a slower sinker, why couldn't that be an example of what happened to Carmona last year? (or to other sinkerballers who lost velocity and watched numbers spike)

And I realize that '07 was a bit over his head for Carmona, but his minor league numbers were still good, and he was still a pretty solid prospect. The loss of velocity still did contribute greatly to the drop in numbers.

Nixa, As a pilot, i take whole classes on aerodynamics.... i do know the what you are talking about.

Posted by: AirmanSD | January 16, 2009 at 04:05 PM

Then I'll explain it like this. You know how the wing of an airplane creates lift? Well the backspin on all fastballs does the exact same thing. The difference between a sinker and a normal fastball is that the sinker creates less lift because the pitcher purposefully places less backspin on the ball.

Now It might get a little trickier. Fastballs are going to be thrown on a downward plane. Now lets assume that both a normal fastball and a sinker are traveling along that same plane, and lets start thinking about everything relative to that plane. The normal fastball is going to have a higher upward initial velocity relative to that plane due to the extra lift from the extra backspin. For that reason, it will take less time for the force of gravity to cause the sinker to have 0 vertical velocity relative to that plane. Therefore, while the acceleration due to gravity is already causing the sinker to have a downward velocity relative to the initial plane, the normal fastball still has an upward vertical velocity. For this reason, when the sinker crosses the plate, it has a significantly higher downward velocity than a normal fastball, and thus appears to beak downward much harder than a normal fastball.

I hope that explains everything.

*all i'm saying is, these things happen*

don't know how that happened...

I don't watch Carmona enough to really break him down. Does he just throw a sinking fastball, or does he throw a normal fastball and split finger (or some other downward breaking pitch). I'm trying to figure things based on his pitch types as fangraphs, but without knowing a whole heck of a lot about him, its tough to make any meaningful conclusions. Anyway, at most Carmona lost .7 MPH of his fastball, so I think there was a far bigger reason for his decline beyond the loss of velocity.