Braves Sign Derek Lowe

"Smoltz's Beard, I do agree with a lot of what you said, obviously you brought up point I already made. It just concerns me that someone with a career ERA+ of only 105, and an ERA+ below 100 over the last 5 years is considered a #2. You speak of potential, but he's going to be 33, his prime is past him. I watched him a lot in Chicago, and was never impressed with him passed a bad #3 or as I said, a very good #4."

Again, a 3.93 FIP in the AL is solid.

Braves are not going to the playoffs this year. Jurrjens put up pretty decent numbers last year, but he walks a lot of guys. There is also the possibility that he won't repeat it he really has no major league track record. Don't count your chickens before they hatch braves fans.

There have been very few Japanese starters who came to the U.S. at that age and succeeded. In fact, I can't think of one. Maybe it's because of that 6-day schedule. It's just too hard for older pitchers to adjust.

Posted by: caseyB | January 13, 2009 at 12:02 PM
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Hiroki Kuroda just came over last year, pitched his first season in the majors at 33, and posted a 114 ERA+ in over 180 IP. If Kawakami can even come close to matching those numbers, then he was a steal for the Braves.

Vazquez has way more upside than a 4, but realistically mid-rotation quality production is more likely.

He has generally good peripherals, but his hit rate and home run rate are mildly alarming.

He has basically trademarked the term, "one bad inning," considering he always seems to pitch great for 5-6 innings but fall apart for a single brutal inning.

If he can avoid the home runs and bad innings, like he managed to in 2007, then he can be a very good #2, but 3/4 production is more likely/predictable.

"It's probably because the Mets are the best team in the NL East right now."

Is this a joke? The Phils until someone beats them is the best team in baseball period. I always believe you are the best until someone beats you.

"I think the Phillies are, by far, the best team in the NL East."

lol, how do you figure that?

The braves don't have a good enough offense to compete with the phillies, mets, and marlins. I also don't think their pitching staff is that great. Lowe is decent, vazquez eats innings, but thats about it, jurjjens looks promising but i don't know if you can count on him yet. Old japanesse pitcher? I find it hard to believe he'll be that successful. The braves have a bunch of decent people, but i really don't feel they have what it takes to win the wild card or nl east.

"The braves don't have a good enough offense to compete with the phillies, mets, and marlins."

Their lineup is nowhere near as good as the Mets or the Phillies, but it is certainly better than the Marlins.

"I also don't think their pitching staff is that great."

Seriously? With this signing, they have, easily, the best rotation in the division. Their bullpen is nothing special, but it's as good as what the Philles have, and better than the Marlins probably.

Lowe is better than decent, and so is Vazquez, who you should keep in mind is coming from the AL. Jurrjens is a bit more than promising, he probably won't do what he did last season but he should be solid. Kawakami and Campillo should be fine as well to round out the rotation, certainly better than any other team's 4-5 in the NL East.

good signing, grats atlanta fans, its turned out to be a good offseason for you guys after all.

"Braves are not going to the playoffs this year. Jurrjens put up pretty decent numbers last year, but he walks a lot of guys. There is also the possibility that he won't repeat it he really has no major league track record. Don't count your chickens before they hatch braves fans."

Jurrjens had a 3.35 BB/9 last year which was 60th in all of baseball and 30th in the NL and better than a lot of good pitchers including Carlos Zambrano.

He is fixin' to turn 23 years old on the 29th of this month. He had a 3.68 ERA last year and keeps the ball in the ball park. Only 11 homeruns giving up last year. He's only getting better.

I know this is high praise but the first game last year he pitched I compared him to Greg Maddux. He has good movement on his pitches and gets a lot of ground balls. Has a killer change up that he has confidence in to throw in any count and it wasn't until about mid season that he really got a feel for his slider.

Sampsonite, the braves may have an all righty rotation, but two are sinkerball pitchers (and jurjjens' best pitch is his change) and one relies on his cutter more than anything. This rotation may very well be tougher on lefties than righties.

I don't count on pelfry, i count on soto. If you think vazquez is a good pitcher you must not have witnessed him throw. I'm from chicago so ive seen tons of sox games, he's not good. Greg Maddux? You are comparing this guy to a first ballot hall of famer? Maddux had pinpoint control. Comparing him to zambrano? He is an over rated, over paid, nut case. Not a good arguement. What makes the phillies and mets rotation better? Well to start, they have a solid ace.

Being generous:

#1: NYM, PHI, ATL
#2: ATL, PHI, NYM
#3: PHI, ATL, NYM
#4: ATL, NYM, PHI
#5: ATL, PHI, NYM

lowe is not an ace. I dont get why this is so hard to understand. He doesnt put up ace numbers. Im done talking to you stupid braves fans. Cool, you can think you had a great offseason. i hope you sign dunn to his ridiculous asking price and have fun losing to the mets, phillies, and posssibly marlins. You blindly put faith into players who really dont deserve it and thats fine. IF you want to live in fantasy land be my guest. Im sure both of our teams will be at home in october

Braves/ Mets/ Phillies---just for fun
1st Spot
PHI-Cole Hamels
NYM- Johan Santana
ATL- Derek Lowe
Im gonna say
1. Johan Santana
2. Cole Hamels
3. Derek Lowe

2nd Spot
A little tougher
1. Javier Vazquez
2. Bret Myers
3. John Maine

3rd Spot
1. Jamie Moyer
2. Jair Jurrjens
3. Oliver Perez(im sure theyll sign him)

4th Spot
This one is very hard with Kawakami being a Japanese player
1. Mike Pelfrey
2. Joe Blanton
3. Kenshin Kawakami

5th Spot
1. Jorge Campillo
2. Tim Redding
3. Kyle Kendrik or JA Happ

so add em up- its a three way tie. also to note the one two spot comes out to a 3 way tie by itself.

I will change if someone can provide a good reason to move somebody

zephyr8...I know it'll only be his second full season in the majors, but you really think Jurrjens is a worse #3 than Moyer?

I think this signing means that the Braves are definitely in the same ballpark as the Phillies and Mets overall with regards to rotation, bullpen, infield and catcher.

We may be better, we may be worse, but we certainly now have the potential to match or even exceed in those areas combined.

However, even with the loss of Burrell, the Phillies and the Mets far exceed us in the outfield. So much so that it isn't funny.

I know this is a joke guys, but the 5th spot in the Phillies rotation is between Jesse Carrasco-Kyle Kendrick-JA Happ- Chan Ho Park- Adam Eaton

Minaya is a cheap spic that didnt want to give Lowe his money....when we had enough to give him...Minaya should be out now the mets are out of an ace next to Johan

OK, we will see. When you guys finish 3rd again, don't b*tch when I savor the opportunity to say, like in 2007 and 2008, "I told you so."

Posted by: metzfan22 | January 13, 2009 at 10:45 AM

When you blow it in september again, we'll all be laughing at you.

"I love it. This is what the Braves should have done from the start."

See, they couldn't have done this from the start though.

Lowe wouldn't have accepted earlier.

That's why Wren deserves credit, because he was patient and let the market come to him, rather than force himself into the market by overpaying.

As for the division race, it truly is open at this point. Every team has questions. Can the Phillies pitching behind Hamels sustain their success? Does Jayson Werth regress? Can they replace Utley's production while he's out? Can Delgado keep playing well for the mets or does he go back to being terrible? Who will be the RF, the 2B? Can the pitchers behind Santana maintain or get better? For the Braves, who's going to play left field and provide some homers? Who will play center? Is Kawakami a Kuroda or Igawa? Can the bullpen finally stay healthy? The division could very well come down to which team stays the healthiest as we saw last year a team that looked good (braves) ended poorly due to injuries, can happen to anyone so no point bragging about who's better than who

"The Braves current rotation is now entirely right handed. Nevermind the Mets lineup, it's going to look much worse when matched up against the Phillies lineup."

Rotation handedness really doesn't matter because it is very rare that the starting rotation will be shifted to allow lefties to face lefty-heavy teams, etc. Lefty/righty stuff primarily comes into play in the bullpen. And, in general, in order to succeed as a starter, you have to be decent against both sides. Very few starters get away with strong platoon splits.

Very few teams will take their best hitters out of the lineup because the opposing SP is of the same handedness as the hitter. Even extremely lefty stacked lineups like Philly and Oakland. And especially not against a division rival.

Abreu is not old and falling off, he strikes out much less than Dunn and he hits lefties better than Dunn. Thats what we need, who cares about WAR and WOBA when you cannot get on base versus lefties.

also i am so tired of hearing from ignorant mets and braves fans about how we'll regret signing a 35 year old guy to a 4 year deal. This is not your typical 35 year old pitcher. He's always been an easy thrower instead of trying to put his fastball right by you, takes stress off his arm. He pitches to contact thereby reducing the number of pitches he throws over a season. He spent 2-3 years in the bullpen with boston as a very good closer, once again less pitches. His age suggests he's winding down and to some extent he is but his arm as far as pitches thrown is more like a 31-33 year old's. Even if his fastball velocity drops, he'll still be a highly effective pitcher

It's not Lowe's age that's at issue; he's a good, solid pitcher. He'll give the Braves 12-14 wins. The Braves have no ace. . .and their lineup is weak.

Nick,

Did you just seriously try comparing Mike Pelfrey to Derek Lowe? I mean Pelfrey has 1 respectable season in his career and that's it. I might give you that Pelfrey is on the same level as Jurrjens, but that's about it. Jurrjens is also younger, has better peripherals, and more upside. Besides, at his point, Pelfrey is your #2 starter considering he was far better than both Maine and Perez last year.

"Abreu is not old and falling off"

How else would you interpret a 35 yr old who has seen a declining WAR for 3 consecutive seasons?

"he strikes out much less than Dunn and he hits lefties better than Dunn."

Who cares, he is a worse hitter overall.

You Braves fans are dreaming about how good your pitching staff is. . .For starters, you have no one who is even close to a #1 starter like Santana. Lowe is good, not great. He's like having Mike Pelfry as your #1, who by the way is the Mets' #3 or #4 starter. The Bullpen: K-Rod closing; Putz setting up. Case closed. . .

Posted by: Nick | January 13, 2009 at 01:14 PM

How about you actually bother to look at some numbers from last year. Lowe's WAR, tra+, and tra all good measureables were far better than your beloved johan santana. while im not saying lowe is better because i think santana is a top 5 MLB pitcher and lowe comes no where close to that, its equally rediculous to think lowe is nowhere near santana in terms of production. His tra+ throughout the past 3 years suggests he is an ace and the year before that a good 2 man. It doesn't matter where you slot Pelfrey, the consensus is he is the second best pitcher on the mets so to say our fourth pitcher is better than yours is dumb. I could just as easily say our potential no. 5 tommy hanson is more talented than your #2. K-Rod is actually very hittable let's see how he does against the much tougher nl east before we pen in those saves

Does anybody know what the terms of the Kawakami deal are? Just wondering how much we will have left to spend on a LF through FA or trade. Anyone?

LOL @ Nick.

Mets bullpen is easily the best in the division.

Pelfrey posted a 113 ERA+ last year. Lowe posted a 131.

Lesdyxia, maybe?

1st off... Lowe is a VERY solid signing, it was a good one and NEEDed most by the Braves.

2ndly - Why are almost all the posts comparing the teams starters against each other.. Pitching gets you so far, but you still have to HIT the ball.

The Phillies have the best Offense - The Mets have the 2nd best. Marlins 3rd. The Braves need more than just 1 bat to make them even thing about the playoffs.

You may have just secured 3rd place with Lowe and Kawakami.

Right now though, you have little offense to offer.

Howard / Delgado / Kotchman
Utley / Castillo / Johnson
Rollins / Reyes / Escobar
Feliz / Wright / Chipper
Ruiz / Schneider / McCann
Ibanez / Murphy / Diaz
Victorino / Beltran / Anderson
Werth / Church / Francoeur

McCann wins Catcher
That's it...

Sorry Braves fans, Third place is yours.. although Marlins still have a good club and will fight you for it.

"In Japan, kawakami need six days rest."

There have been very few Japanese starters who came to the U.S. at that age and succeeded. In fact, I can't think of one. Maybe it's because of that 6-day schedule. It's just too hard for older pitchers to adjust.

Posted by: caseyB | January 13, 2009 at 12:02 PM
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six day rest : piched good
five day or less : often smash up

nixa, yes I did read your post. The point is Dodgers stadium last year played like a severe pitchers park. More than just seating and dimensions go into influencing park factors. Two out of the last 4 years it's been a severe pitchers park.

Kuroda only played there last year so those are the only park factors relevant to him.

The part about not counting your chickens didn't necessarily apply just to you.

The record is just bad for Japanese starters especially the older ones.

Honestly lets all just stop arguing about who has the best this and that and just watch the games and do i told you so's in a few months because its really pointless. alot of things factor into who will be winning namely unforseen injuries. I read some site that projected Jurrjens and Hamels to be injured next year kinda crazy but im just saying anything like that throws a wrench in to a teams plans and chances. and in that area i do think the Braves have helped themselves alot with not just quality but depth alot of other teams have alot less options to fill a potential injury

"They pitch in 6 man rotations, meaning they are generally going to get 5 days in between starts. Its a rather irrelevant point anyway"

The relevant point is they get an extra day of rest between starts. Doesn't matter how you phrase it. They don't get that extra day in the U.S. Which is why I think Japanese starters have a harder time than relievers adjusting to U.S. baseball.

The relevant point is they get an extra day of rest between starts. Doesn't matter how you phrase it. They don't get that extra day in the U.S. Which is why I think Japanese starters have a harder time than relievers adjusting to U.S. baseball.

Posted by: caseyB | January 13, 2009 at 02:08 PM
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My point had nothing to do with your "phrasing." You guys were saying they get 6 days rest between starts which is just flat out incorrect. As for your contention that Japanese starters have a tougher time transitioning than Japanese relievers, do you actually have anything to back that up, or is it based purely on anecdotal evidence and your opinion?

giles24,

You have a link on that one? I haven't seen it anywhere personally and a quick google search didn't turn up any articles I saw mentioning it. Even the NPB article I read only mentions him going from 5 days to 4 days.

nixia, your saying it is irrelevant that he pitched in a 6-man rotation in Japan is what's wrong.

It doesn't matter who phrased what how and why. Because bottom line is that he won't have the luxury of a 6-man rotation in the states. Unless Cox has something different in mind.

And I base my conclusions about Japanese starter vs. relievers on the majority of Japanese relievers and starters who have come to the states. At least roughly 50% of the relievers seem to do well initially, while starters struggle, especially the older ones.

Going to a severe pitchers park can mitigate this somewhat. For example, Safeco or Dodgers Stadium. But Turner Field is a hitters park.

nixa37,

I read in Japanese.
http://dragons.jp/game/schedule/index.php?month=200803

in NPB, veteran pitcher often get extra rest.

halloo

GO TO THIS PAGE

"In light of all these other factors, the change from a 5 man to 6 man rotation is rather irrelevant."

Huh? All those other things just add to the challenges. I still take issue with your use of "irrelevant" in this instance.

"You're not even listing anecdotal evidence"

I didn't think I needed to since most people are aware of the players. But here goes:

Starters who bombed: Ishii, Komiyama, Fat Toad, Igawa

Relievers who did well initially: Saito, Sasaki, Takatsu, Okajima, Otsuka

IMO, the jury is still out on Kuroda and his season was just average. Nomo and Matsuzaka both came over while young and Matsuzaka was at any rate the best starter in Japan at the time he was posted.

"There is also no proof that their struggles are due to the change from a 5 man to 6 man rotation. It could be any number of other things that make a difference."

Look at their 2nd half splits. This suggests fatigue. They are also less likely to be able to go over 200 innings as they are not used to heavy loads.

"Dodger Stadium really isn't a pitchers park anymore."

Disagree. One multi-year stat can't erase it's history. I think you would need to see more years. And the latest year showed it was a severe pitchers park.

"In fact, Turner Field has a slightly more pitcher friendly multi-year park factor."

The most recent multi-year number is skewed by one anomalous year in which it played as a pitchers park. But in 2008, like most recent years, it played like a hitters park.

lowe doesnt impress me, he a 3.26era at home games, in dodgers stadium. and he a 4.25era pitcher in away games.

god braves fan are the best fan in the NL East, theyre fair and not rational, and mostly dont underestimate the marlins, which seems to be a quality in the mets and phils' fans.
there a statement that say the braves lineup is better the marlins lineup: no, the marlins had the best power infield in MLB history, and i glad jacobs is gone.
i think the braves wil compete next year, cause last year was a flux and that isnt going to happen again.

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"there a statement that say the braves lineup is better the marlins lineup: no, the marlins had the best power infield in MLB history"

Really, though, the Braves have a better lineup, even though the Marlins have a better player at 5 positions (of course the offseason isn't over).

Based on CHONE projections, it's something like:
C: Braves >>>>>
1B: Braves >
2B: Marlins >
3B:Braves >>>>>>>
SS: Marlins >>>>
LF: Marlins >
CF: Marlins >>
RF: Marlins >

How do the Braves not match up with the Mets? The Mets have 2 players in their line up that could start in Atlanta.

Santana is obviously a stud but the rest of your rotation isnt that good. Your bullpen is loaded but so is the Braves.

Posted by: tsweet9000 | January 13, 2009 at 10:08 AM

Wow, so 2!! of the mets players would start for the braves... how about this. If you combine rosters

McCann would start at C
Delgado would start at first
Castillo would start at second
Reyes woulds start at SS
Wright would start at 3rd
Church would start in RF
Beltran would start in CF
Larry would start in LF

fyi, the reason Wright is better than Larry is simple. He is more dependable and is the future of the team. Offensive production is very similar, with larry having the better avg. and Wright having more SBs, HRs, RBIs. Wright also is the better defensive player due to his range.

If we are going to compare rotations it should be done like this: and ill explain as I go...

Santana >>> Lowe- no exp. needed
Perez > Vasquez- I keep hearing how Vasquez is a 200 IP and 200Ks guy with a mid 4's ERA... OK, and what is Perez?- a 200IP and 200K guy with likely a LOW 4 ERA that is 6-7 years younger with better stuff and is a lefty. I think they are close to equal but if I had to chose, it would undoubtedly be Perez.

JJ=Big Pelf- to say that JJ has a higher upside is just moronic. Pelf has more movement and a 96 MPH fastball. He was a top draft pick and only fell to the mets because of his agent... Boras.
JJ- 116 ERA+
Pelf- 113 ERA+
Pelfrey also pitched over 200 innings. great sign there. I would rather have pelfrey myself, although I am biased so I will say equal.

Maine > Kawakazi

Simply put Kawakazi is just a huge ?, I realize maine is no sure thing, but at least I have seen him pitch to a MLB batter!

Redding = Campillo

Again who knows with a 5th starter. they both were lucky last year. Redding has shown some bright spots in 2003 & 2007, but I hardly expect him to even hold on to this spot. Neise obviously is the best choice here if/when he is ready, well i guess Hanson would be better, if/when he is ready... you get my point