Braves Sign Derek Lowe

Fish&Mets, you got 1B and 2B wrong. Also, Vazquez is much better than Perez, keep in mind that Vazquez has been posting those numbers in the AL. And I would say Kawakami = Maine until I see otherwise, and Campillo > Redding for sure.

Very nice signing for the Braves. Might have paid an extra year too much but that probably what it was going to have to take

I am a much happier Yankee fan that Lowe didnt go to Boston.

And the Mets fans on here need to be careful because it looks like you might end up in 3rd or 4th place.

"cantu over kotchman"'

disagree with this one. and in any case, this kind of comparison isn't very useful, the question is how much better each player is compared to his counterpart on the other team. I think when you factor that in, the Braves have the better lineup, by maybe 1 or 2 WAR.

"I am biased"

That's all you needed to say. But you forgot idiotic also.

Luis Castillo over Kelly Johnson? BWAHAHAHAHA!!

Iamnobody-

2nd Base is a toss up, both are poor defensively i guess that KJ has a slightly better OPS+, but they are essentially the same player.

1st Base- No way am i wrong, lets look at some numbers comparing Delgado and Kotchmann

Delgado 2008-
127 OPS+ Career 138 OPS+

.271 38 and 115 as a basic line... WOW

Kotchman 2008-
93 OPS+ (73 with the braves) and a 96 OPS+ Career avg.

.272 14 74

IMO half the player Delgado is, not to mention his numbers were FAR worse than that with the braves, hitting .234.

I will agree with Maine=Kawakazi, but only because I see them both as very avg pitchers in 2009

I would not over think the AL-NL switch. in the vasquez move. I see no reason to assume he will be far above league avg, even with improvement. He certainly is not "Far Better than Perez"

You would rather have a pitcher that sucks than a pitcher that doesn't suck? That is incredibly intelligent!

Seriously, nice signing by Atlanta. As a Met fan, I just wanted Ollie or Lowe, but as time kept going, that 9 year age difference started to get to me. Yes, Lowe will be good for Atlanta, yes, Ollie is inconsistent. But as I have said, if Oliver can get his BB down to a reasonable level, he can be an ace. He doesn't get hit hard for the most part, and he strikes out a lot of guys. Just get those walks down, and there is literally nothing holding him back. As a guy who is just turned 27 (I think), there is still time for this kid to mature. I think/hope he will. Just make sure you lock him up now Omar.

Fish.... saying Castillo and Johnson are virtually the same player is about as accurate as saying Orlando Hudson and Chase Utley are virtually the same player. Kelly Johnson is a top 10 2B in the league, he is miles and miles better then Castillo. It isn't even close. Delgado is also far superior to Kotchman. Everybody says Delgado won't repeat his 2008 production. I think he will. He would only have to perform at about 70 percent of his level from last year, assuming he doesn't take 3 months off. H was so brutally horrible in the first few months, that I don't think non-Met fans realize how absolutely torrid this guy was down the stretch. I seriously have never seen anything like it. He was just hitting massive moon shot home runs, and he was demolishing LHP. He certainly is not done. I would say there is even a chance that he out produces himself from 2008, because I just don't see him hitting .240/.310/.400 all the way through June.

Jair Jurrjens is better then Pelfrey. But Mike Pelfrey is a stud also. I wouldn't be surprised to see them both as top of the rotation pitchers for a very long time.

"2nd Base is a toss up, both are poor defensively i guess that KJ has a slightly better OPS+, but they are essentially the same player."

.....no. Kelly Johnson isn't a declining little slap hitter who hits 2 home runs a year.

it going to be interested this year. i think 90wins will won the division

2:02pm: David O'Brien says Kawakami gets three years, $25MM.

So to add it up

40-45 to spend in the offseason

kawakami ~8.3
Vasquez ~10
Lowe ~15
arbitration.. assuming 5-10
back up C ~1.5

total- ~40-45M

correct?

You are not going to get out of this by saying Castillo is a turd. The really bad thing you did was compare Castillo to Johnson and say that Johnson just isn't very good. This is blatantly wrong. He is a top 10 2B, maybe even top 5. I would prefer him over a guy like Orlando Hudson. Kelly Johnson is a very good young second baseman.

"Simply in Offensive production Wright was superior. Now take into account that he plays nearly 30 more games per year than larry and that he is 25/26 while larry is 36/37 and you realize the gap is only going to get bigger every year."

And actually Wright was nowhere close to more productive then Chipper. Simply put, he did NOT outproduce Chipper and play more games. He only played more games. Chipper was the much better offensive player in 2008. I also don't know when David Wright's defense got good. The guy isn't a butcher, but he is hardly Mike Schmidt over there either. He is an average defender.

"You're looking at the wrong numbers. Delgado is old and his production is falling off, his career numbers are irrelevant. Make sure you factor in defense, too, as Delgado is below average and declining while Kotchman is well above average."

Delgado's production might have fallen off relative to 2003, but the dude is just as good as he was the first day he got to the Mets. He can definitely still hit. I'm telling you, .270/.360/.540 really wouldn't shock me this year. I think he may just have one more explosive season in his back pocket. Look at his August/September numbers and tell me he is done.

Fish and Mets,

That 40-45 million figure had already budgeted for arbitration raises, so you're double counting them by adding them in again.

So many comments on this one! WOW!

I think Atlanta went the "one" extra year in order to nab the guy they wanted, kinda like the Mets did to sign Pedro a few years back and the Yanks did with Damon.

Unlike those deals (where the extra year really hurt) I hope it works out for them and Lowe - he was always a dependable guy on the mound -- it was just the extra-curricular stuff that was a problem and it looks like all of that is behind him.

NL East should make for some exciting baseball!

"I said JJ= Pelfrey, although If you would like I can back up Pelfrey being better VERY easily. "

..WTF? Pelfrey better than Jurrjens? To say that Pelfrey is better just because i'm biased and anything else would hurt my little Mutt feelings doesn't cut it.

Jurrjens in 08:
13-10
3.68 era
139 k
plus he had a lower opp. BA than Pelfrey.

And that was just in his first full big league season. The skies the limit with him.

Pelfrey in 08:
13-11
3.72 era
110 K

Yes, he pitched more innings. 12 more...congratulations.

Now tell me again how Pelfrey is "easily" better than Jurrjens?

And actually Wright was nowhere close to more productive then Chipper. Simply put, he did NOT outproduce Chipper and play more games. He only played more games. Chipper was the much better offensive player in 2008. I also don't know when David Wright's defense got good. The guy isn't a butcher, but he is hardly Mike Schmidt over there either. He is an average defender.

Posted by: nrmax88 | January 13, 2009 at 04:11 PM

Actually nrmax,

He did out perform larry last year. He did it because he played in more games. He beat chipper in most every statistical category. I am not trying to say he is a better hitter than Larry Wayne Jones, only that he is more productive due to his durability.

Again I apologize for saying that KJ is anything close to castillo. However, I do not think he is top 5 at all, maybe around number 10... lets look...

defensively he is avg at best, correct.... again I would like a link as I tend to go of public opinion mostly for defense.

Offensively...
The Fantasy Man's 2009 Second Base 2B Mixed League Rankings

1. Chase Utley - You'll get the norm but I don't think he's a 40 HR guy

2. Ian Kinsler - What's his ceiling? If he can duplicate 2008, he's a surefire #2 at 2B

3. Dustin Pedroia - .300+/15/15 with .300+/20/20 potential

4. Brandon Phillips - The BA is bad but still a lock for 20/20/90

5. Brian Roberts - Super consistent and can expect .290+/30+ SB

6. Alexei Ramirez - Has a BJ Upton build without the K's, who knows what his ceiling is!!

7. Dan Uggla - BA is a killer but 25+ HR/100+ Runs is fantastic at 2B!

8. Robinson Cano - Has .300+/20/90 potential if he can put it all together for an entire year

9. Placido Polanco - .300+ with a few dingers and a few steals, super consistent, won't hurt you

10. Howie Kendrick - .330+/15/80 potential if he can stay healthy

11. Rickie Weeks - Don't believe the hype, BA will kill your fantasy season but he does have 30/30 potential...maybe

12. Alexi Casilla - .300+ slap hitter with 100R potential

13. Mark DeRosa - Consistent .290/15-20HR kind of player with position eligibility

14. Jose Lopez - Showed he can hit consistently, still young, still has the potential for a break out

15. Orlando Hudson - .290+/15/70/15 as usual if he stays healthy

16. Freddie Sanchez - Can be a .300+ hitter but lacks power and a team

17. Akinori Iwamura - No power but could be a .300+ hitter

18. Kelly Johnson - Still waiting for KJ to break out, does a little bit of everything but suffers monster slumps

Now I dont put him anywhere near that low, but to see one person's impartial perspective is good.

I looked about about 15 different fantasy rankings, 2 of which had him in the top 10 although most had him at number 12

homeofdabrave-

Jesus you are fool, I said how many times now that they are equal. Their numbers are all fairly similar, no real difference other than some luck. I have no need to get into some stupid banter about who is actually better. I will just say that Pelfrey simply has a better body type and nastier pitches.

can someone give me a good place to look up defense yet?

and how is WAR calculated?

"how is WAR calculated?"

WAR = Wins Above Replacement

basically, it measures how many wins a player is worth over a replacement level player.

Here is a link to part one of what I think is an 8 part series on how win values are calculated for position players (Win values = WAR):

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/win-values-explained-part-one

Mets&Fish,

Using fantasy rankings to try and argue who is the better baseball player is just asinine. Fantasy overvalues fairly meaningless things like AVG and SB, while undervaluing the things like OBP and SLG. It just so happens that KJ is much better at the latter than the former. Last year KJ finished 8th in OBP and SLG and 7th in OPS among 2B. In 2007 his ranks were 5th, 7th, and 4th in those 3 categories. That's why KJ is a top 10 2B.

Clearly, Wright did not outproduce Chipper across the board. The funny thing is the guy you're arguing that point with is a Mets fan if I remember correctly. Chipper just straight up crushed Wright in all 3 rates stats, holding a 62 point advantage in AVG, 80 points in OBP, 40 points in SLG, and 120 points in OPS. Chipper had a bigger advantage over Wright in terms of OPS than Wright had over Edwin Encarnacion, just to put those numbers into perspective.

"...the change from a 5 to 6 man rotation means very little."

LOL, easy for you to say. You don't have to do it. As I said, the 2nd half splits and lack of annual innings in the majors suggest otherwise. If the longer season is part of the problem I don't see how that mitigates the issue. It makes it worse. It's one and the same -- stamina is an issue with them due to the differences in baseball.

". Ishii was solid his 1st year and above average his second. Irabu was terrible his 1st year (in just 9 starts), but was good his second year and average his 3rd. Komiyama was never a starter in the majors and didn't come over until he was 36. Igawa was never really all that highly regarded to begin with and his failure wasn't a huge surprise to most (he only got $4 million a year, that should tell you something)."

Wow ... way to spin. Of Ishii's 4 years in the majors, 3 were at below average. His ERA+ for his 4 years is a lousy 90. Irabu had 6 years in the majors and 5 were below league average. His career ERA+ is no better than ishii's -- 89. As for Igawa, the yankees paid $26 million just for the rights to sign him, so don't say he was cheap. Much much more was expected and he's deemed a complete failure in NY. And Komiyama still stunk even though he had mostly relief duties in the majors. His background was as a starter.

I'll give you Kuroda just for the sake of this argument though I think the jury is still out on him.

So bottom line is the bulk of the starters coming over who aren't in their 20's simply stunk. If you're happy with a starter whose majority of years will be below league average, be my guest. You set your sights low.

"Finally, for the park factors, Dodgers Stadium was a huge hitters park in both 2006 and 2007. It has generally been in the mid 90's since the start of this millennium, but it is nowhere near the pitchers park it was in 90's before they added seats at the expense of foul territory."

It played as a hitters park in 2006 and 2007 BUT the most recent year and 2005 it played as a severe pitchers park. PLUS 8 out of the last 10 years it's played as a severe pitchers park. The preponderance of the evidence is that it's a severe pitchers park.

"As for Turner Field, you're just making things up when you say it has generally played as a hitters park."

No, I'm not. The park has been around for 12 years. 7 of those years its played as a hitters park. 4 years as a pitchers park. One year as a neutral park. So again, the bulk of the evidence says it's a hitters park. Is it Coors? Of course not. But it's no Dodgers Stadium which is the relevant comparison here.

"Where did you come up with the multi-year park factor being skewed by one season in which it played as a pitchers park?"

What I meant was that 08 it played as a slight hitters park, and 07 as a slight pitchers park. In 06, it did play as a heavy pitchers park which drags the 3-year rating toward a pitchers park, even though it played as a hitters park just last season.

"The only time it has ever shown up as a hitters park is when its been skewed by the few really hitter friendly seasons."

LOL, and that just happens to be the majority of its seasons. If you look at the lifetime park factor of Turners Field, it can only be described as a hitters park.

"That's why KJ is a top 10 2B."

KJ was 15th in MLB last season in WAR, 12th in 2007. I think top 10 is overselling him.

Man I haven't finished reading the comments but some Mets fans are really ignoring... We got us a decent ace and all they can do is say how he isn't one and how they still better. (not talking about all mets fans, just a few I've read on here)

Ok here is how I see it. We got us an ace (YEAH!) to go at the rotation. Now whether we are better than the Mets or Phils is another story. I'm not going to say we are since there are points for each side but I think we can all agree that the Braves rotation is much better than before.

Don't really like that we gave 4 years but if you think about it we can always trade him when Hudson comes back if we think he gonna decline. (and I know other coaches may think the same but i'm assuming he is putting up about the same numbers and we just don't want to take a chance, someone will bite)

Also our Bullpen may not have the names that the Mets do but it is a strength and will help us close out a lot of games I think.

Now all we need is a Lf (swisher, nady, dunn, abreu, pick your favorite) and maybe give AJ a chance.

Either way we a lot better than before

Mets' fans seem to forget they only won 89 games last year. 89 games. I don't care that their bullpen sucked. That's why it's a 162 game season.

As for the Phillies, congrats on the World Series, but that was last year. They've made no significant improvements to their 08' team (no, I didn't forget Ibanez).

Next year the NL East is up for grabs (the Marlins included), and whoever says otherwise is an idiot.

As far as the Braves financial situation goes, I read that the Braves were not counting the money that they had set aside for Smoltz into their $40+ million they were able to spend this winter. So that throws an extra 7 mil or so (if you count both the gauranteed and half of the incentives they offered him) into the pot. They still have money to get a solid LF upgrade as well as resign Ohman.

Turner Field has not played as a hitter park 7 of the 12 years its been open, unless you 1997 (101/99), 1998 (102/100), 2001 (104/104), 2002 (106/105), 2004 (101/100), 2006 (106/105), and 2008 (101/101). Clearly, 1997 was neutral, as the 99 shows it played easier for pitchers. 1998 and 2004 were also neutral from a pitchers perspective. If you want to take 2008 and the 101/101 feel free. That still leaves you with just 4 of 12 years it has played as hitter's park. From my side, there is 1999 (97/96), 2000 (100/99), 2003 (96/95), 2006 (96/96), 2007 (98/97). That's 4 years where it clearly played pitcher friendly, with 1 where it was essentially neutral. Go ahead and keep claiming its a hitter park if you want though.

Anyway, to go through the other stuff you quoted...

1. Way to take my quote out of context. My point was that compared to the many other changes a Japanese pitcher has to deal with, going from a 6 man rotation to a 5 isn't all that important. I never claimed the longer season mitigated the issue. You just missed the point, which was the 2nd half struggles are more easily explained by a longer season (they struggle after their normal season would have ended) than a 5 man rotation (wouldn't this cause problems throughout, not just at the end?).

2. I wasn't spinning things, just presenting the facts. Kawakami doesn't have to be league average for the investment to be worthwhile, since league average pitchers command more than 8 million a year on the FA market. Ishii provided 2 seasons that wouldn't be terrible for a #5 starter to go along with 1 very good season. In his second and third seasons Irabu posted ERA+ of 109 and 98. What they did after 3 years really isn't relevant as Kawakami is only signed for 3 years. As for Igawa, I forgot about the posting fee, but there were still people saying he wasn't worth nearly that much at the time.

I also find it interesting that you choose to ignore Nomo and Daisuke because they were "young", while Kawakami is old, but all the comparable pitchers you do list came over at ages much closer to Daisuke and Nomo, then to Kuroda or Kawakami. Its much easier to make your case when you cherry pick comparisons.

I know i missed out here and this is a while back but for those comparing line ups relative to position thats moronic. If you're more talented at 5-6 positions doesn't mean you have a better line-up. as for the mets fans pitching comparisons, i ask once again just go look at the ta, tra+, WAR for both Santana and Lowe. Santana has been regressing lately while Lowe is defying age and surging. It's much closer between the two than you think. As for Vazquez compared to Perez, no question its Vasquez. He'll benefit from getting away from Ozzie and the Cell. Jurrjens is better than Pelfrey and stats reinforce this. Kawakami and Maine, can't project at this point because there's nothing to judge from Kawakami's end. the 5 slot breaks closer to even than the others so far but the Braves have more depth in case of injury. So Mets have a edge albeit not as big as assumed in the ace category but other than it leans to atlanta (not counting kawakami)

Mets' fans seem to forget they only won 89 games last year. 89 games. I don't care that their bullpen sucked. That's why it's a 162 game season.

As for the Phillies, congrats on the World Series, but that was last year. They've made no significant improvements to their 08' team (no, I didn't forget Ibanez).

Next year the NL East is up for grabs (the Marlins included), and whoever says otherwise is an idiot.

As far as the Braves financial situation goes, I read that the Braves were not counting the money that they had set aside for Smoltz into their $40+ million they were able to spend this winter. So that throws an extra 7 mil or so (if you count both the gauranteed and half of the incentives they offered him) into the pot. They still have money to get a solid LF upgrade as well as resign Ohman.

Posted by: bobby cox is my father | January 13, 2009 at 05:09 PM

why is it that every time you post I want to puke.... what your saying is stupid, the mets had the second worst BP in the majors last year. they go out and sign the best closer on the market, and trade for the best reliever available. They now have a great pen and with that drastically reducing their, what, 26 BS last year. Therefore, should result in a lot more wins.

And ok, lets say, I dont care that their BP sucked. Lets say, NO EXCUSES... what do you have to say about your team losing the division by 20, yes 20 games.

and remember, you cant call injuries, because there is no excuses...

Pelfrey = Jurrjens imo, at least in terms of what we can expect to see in 2009.

And ok, lets say, I dont care that their BP sucked. Lets say, NO EXCUSES... what do you have to say about your team losing the division by 20, yes 20 games.

and remember, you cant call injuries, because there is no excuses...

Posted by: Fish&Mets | January 13, 2009 at 05:33 PM

That's exactly why I've made no excuses.

I think it's hilarious when people bust out stats from last year as an iron-clad predictor of what's going to happen this year. The fact remains that it's a brand new year.

Kudos to the Mets for improving their bullpen, who, as you pointed out blew a lot of saves last year. The September before that the Mets' excuse was they didn't have the starting pitching. But anything can happen. Different years bring new problems...which is why it's a 25 man game, and 162 game season. Next year your bullpen may do great but Santana may blow out his arm and Delgado's prostate may swell up the size of a watermelon.

please someone show me a noticeable difference between Pelf and JJ? please, someone?

Posted by: Fish&Mets | January 13, 2009 at 05:36 PM

Jurrjens: 22 years old (to be fair he does turn 23 in 2 weeks) and 6.6 K/9

Pelfrey: 25 years old and 4.9 K/9

Other than those 2 things, they are pretty similar, but those 2 things give JJ a pretty sizable advantage.

""KJ was actually 14th in Value Wins last season"

I'm still seeing 15th, lol. Maybe I'm just bad at counting.

"Still, you shouldn't take these numbers as gospel because fielding metrics are still more estimates than absolutes. For example, both Sanchez and Cano ranked ahead of UZR's that were completely out of line with what they had previously done in their career. The 2007 list also includes BJ Upton who no longer plays the position. As for last year, you have 3 guys who finished ahead of KJ based solely on defensive value (which again is an estimate more than anything), Durham who just had a career year, and Fontenot who thrived because he never had to face LHP. I'm not saying that KJ is a no doubt top 10 guy, but I think he its clear we should expect him to be one of the 10-12 most valuable 2B next season."

Fair enough. What about guys who finished just on the wrong side of KJ due to those factors? Or weren't there any?

"iamnobody-

what do you think career wise, or talent wise... who is superior?
JJ
or
Pelfrey?
and why?"

Given that Jurrjens is doing at 23 what Pelfrey is doing at 25, I would say Jurrjens is clearly superior.

For Chipper to match Wright's production in the extra ABs Wright made, he'd have to hit .155/.173/.439 FOR TWO HUNDRED AT BATS.

With guys like Lowe and Vazquez in the rotation the Braves finally have some guys other than JJ that can go 7 innings a night. I have tried to put last year behind me, watching all of those games where Reyes/Morton/James gave up 5-6 runs before the end of the third. The offense pressed having to come back down many runs not long after the game began. Perhaps the Braves offense, while lacking a lot of power, will have an opportunity to play a bit more freely considering the pitching improvements. The bullpen got overused last year and even though the bats attempted to bring the Braves back in many games, it was never enough.

Pelf- 200 IP and a 2.87 BB/9

JJ- 188 IP and a 3.35 BB/9

Other than that they are pretty similar, but due to those two stats, I would say Pelf is sign. better

"

Pelf- 200 IP and a 2.87 BB/9

JJ- 188 IP and a 3.35 BB/9

Other than that they are pretty similar, but due to those two stats, I would say Pelf is sign. better"

lol, where is K/9?

"They now have a great pen and with that drastically reducing their, what, 26 BS last year. Therefore, should result in a lot more wins. "

Until September that is...

Posted by: homeofdabrave | January 13, 2009 at 05:53 PM

what will happen in September?

oh year Wagner will be back and the pen will be even stronger!!

how could I forget

For Chipper to match Wright's production in the extra ABs Wright made, he'd have to hit .155/.173/.439 FOR TWO HUNDRED AT BATS.

Posted by: NickC | January 13, 2009 at 05:53 PM

Wow, nickC, that seems like a lot of work. Thankyou for that stat...

I dont know what means more, that Larry is that great of a hitter, or that he is that much less durable than Wright?

also, thanks for pointing out that Wright actually had 200 more at bats last year... jeez thats a lot

Career numbers:

Jurrjens: 219 IP, 3.33 BB/9, 6.25 K/9, 0.62 HR/9
Pelfrey: 295 IP, 3.51 BB/9, 5.13 K/9, 0.58 HR/9

"Can everyone PLEASE stop bashing Wren now? He got his top of the rotation starter (Lowe) as well as depth in Vazquez and Kawakami.The lineup should be solid, especially if they can add an outfield bat. He didn't overpay for Burnett or Peavy, and he got screwed by Furcal.
Otherwise, admit it, the guy has done a pretty damn good job."

He did not 'overpay' for Burnett because he got outbid for Burnett and not by much. He did overpay for Lowe though

nixia, no one would say 102/100 is neutral. Obviously 100 is neutral but the 102 factor would push that year toward the hitters side.

Since it's obvious you want to average out pitching and hitting factors during a single year, neutral would be 100/100 or 99/101. Not 102/100.

So lets look at the separate hitting and pitching factors by year and average them out:

1997 -- 101/99 (neutral)
1998 -- 102/100 (hitters)
1999 -- 97/96 (pitchers)
2000 -- 100/99 (pitchers)
2001 -- 104/104 (hitters)
2002 -- 106/105 (hitters)
2003 -- 96/95 (pitchers)
2004 -- 101/100 (hitters)
2005 -- 106/105 (hitters)
2006 -- 96/96 (pitchers)
2007 -- 98/97 (pitchers)
2008 -- 101/101 (hitters)

Ok, so 6 out of the 12 years it played as a hitters park, 5 years it was a pitchers park. And one year it was neutral. On balance it is still a hitters park, if only slightly. Further if you were to average all the numbers over the 12-year period, it would be strongly in favor of it being a hitters park.

Dodgers stadium over the same time period could only be classified as a severe pitchers park.

Now to your other points.

1) You will never know if the lack of stamina is because of less rest or a longer schedule. And, no, I didn't miss your point. And, no, not being used to a 5-man rotation wouldn't necessarily mean struggles from the start. Extra effort could be expended at the start of the season to deal with it ... and this could have a cumulative effect that only showed up at the end. Whatever, it doesn't really matter. The fact is Japanese starters have not shown an ability to withstand the rigors of a U.S. baseball season very well. The result is the same and its useless to argue over the cause because no one knows for sure.

2. The point was not what they did after 2 or 3 seasons, it was that the majority of the seasons for these starters (not just the average) were below league average. If you're fine with that, that's your choice. I know I wouldn't want to spend $7-8 million on a below-league average starter.

"I also find it interesting that you choose to ignore Nomo and Daisuke because they were "young","

I didn't ignore them. I talked about them. And if you look at my original post, it mentioned older Japanese pitchers.

"...while Kawakami is old, but all the comparable pitchers you do list came over at ages much closer to Daisuke and Nomo, then to Kuroda or Kawakami."

The only successful starters have been Nomo and Matsuzaka and both came over at age 26. None of the others came over earlier than age 28.

Yes, I think that makes a difference along with the fact that Matsuzaka was simply the top starter in all the Japanese leagues.

"Its much easier to make your case when you cherry pick comparisons."

Of course I didn't cherry pick. Fact is if you take ALL the starters who have come over from Japan, including all the ones I talked about, the only really successful ones came over at age 26.

All the rest have been a failure IMO or at best the jury is still deciding (Kuroda).

Wait, the jury is still deciding on Kuroda, even though he's been great for 183 IP, but Komiyama and Igawa are failures after 43 and 72 IP respectively?

Mets' fans seem to forget they only won 89 games last year. 89 games. I don't care that their bullpen sucked. That's why it's a 162 game season.

As for the Phillies, congrats on the World Series, but that was last year. They've made no significant improvements to their 08' team (no, I didn't forget Ibanez).

Next year the NL East is up for grabs (the Marlins included), and whoever says otherwise is an idiot.

As far as the Braves financial situation goes, I read that the Braves were not counting the money that they had set aside for Smoltz into their $40+ million they were able to spend this winter. So that throws an extra 7 mil or so (if you count both the gauranteed and half of the incentives they offered him) into the pot. They still have money to get a solid LF upgrade as well as resign Ohman.

Posted by: bobby cox is my father | January 13, 2009 at 05:09 PM

The Phillies may have not made any improvements on their team, but they didn't lose anything either. I would think that would still make them capable of doing what they did last year unless you really believe that the mets and braves are that much better. in that case we will just have to wait and see.

I really do dislike how everyone says what team is better than the other at this point, the season has been over for less than 2 months and we are already writing people off. How about we just wait and see?

Mets' fans seem to forget they only won 89 games last year. 89 games. I don't care that their bullpen sucked. That's why it's a 162 game season.

As for the Phillies, congrats on the World Series, but that was last year. They've made no significant improvements to their 08' team (no, I didn't forget Ibanez).

Next year the NL East is up for grabs (the Marlins included), and whoever says otherwise is an idiot.

As far as the Braves financial situation goes, I read that the Braves were not counting the money that they had set aside for Smoltz into their $40+ million they were able to spend this winter. So that throws an extra 7 mil or so (if you count both the gauranteed and half of the incentives they offered him) into the pot. They still have money to get a solid LF upgrade as well as resign Ohman.

Posted by: bobby cox is my father | January 13, 2009 at 05:09 PM

Fish&Mets, put it this way. If Andruw Jones had played 3rd for those extra 200 abs, the Jones combination would still have hit for higher average and OBP than David Wright.

Is this confirmed our is he going to pull a Furcal and sign with the Mets

"I don't view Kuroda as pretty successful off of one season pitched in Dodgers Stadium."

So who do you view as a failures, and how many innings did they pitch?

nobody ... As I told nixa, the jury is still out on kuroda.

Who do I view as failures? I'm not sure what you mean. I went through a bunch of them -- Ishii, Igawa, the fat toad, komiyama.

casey, perhaps you missed my earlier post:

"Wait, the jury is still deciding on Kuroda, even though he's been great for 183 IP, but Komiyama and Igawa are failures after 43 and 72 IP respectively?"

BTW ... Kuroda only pitched 78 innings over 14 starts during the second half. The reduced workload could be because of fatigue. But in addition, his ERA the second half rose to 4.14. This could also mean a sign of fatigue OR it could mean the book on him is getting around. If the latter is the case, one cannot expect his 2nd year overall to be as successful, especially as he's a year older.

Read my latest post on Kuroda to see why the jury is still out on him. Park factors are just one part of the equation. His second half was hardly a success, with reduced innings an an elevated ERA.