Braves Sign Derek Lowe

nixa, lol, that guy runs a site to promote Japanese baseball. You call him neutral?

nobody ... the jury is still out on kuroda in terms of calling him a successful ML starter because of the park factors and his second half decline. I think you have to see what happens in year 2. I predict he'll decline.

CHONE projects Kawakami at 2.1 WAR. Obviously, it is difficult to project the performance of a player coming from a completely different league, but I don't see any reason to take the anecdotal opinion of a baseball analyst over statistical analysis, do you?

nobody ... you can call someone a failure if they haven't done anything good in MLB. But just because someone had a decent first year as a starter, you have to take it with a grain of salt, especially if the second half saw a significant decline.

Are you ready to call Kuroda a success? Let me know. If you do I'll bookmark this thread and come looking for you in about 8 months.

nixa, lol, that guy runs a site to promote Japanese baseball. You call him neutral?

Posted by: caseyB | January 13, 2009 at 07:26 PM
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Maybe you should read a few more of the scouting reports on the page before you make yourself look stupid. He rips on 3 of the 5 Japanese players that were/are available to MLB teams this year. He personally focuses on Japanese baseball, but the site he's on focuses on MLB. How crazy of me to quote a scouting report on a Japanese player from a writer who focuses on Japanese players...that's just crazy.

"nobody ... you can call someone a failure if they haven't done anything good in MLB. But just because someone had a decent first year as a starter, you have to take it with a grain of salt, especially if the second half saw a significant decline."

Why? Why is it that poor numbers over a small sample are indicative of failure, but good numbers over a much larger sample are not indicative of success?

"nobody ... statistical projections are no better than an analysis by someone like Keith Law when you are dealing with a starter coming over from japan."

Do you have any proof of this at all?

Obviously the jury is still out on Kawakami. He'll be pitching in a better league, and will also have to adapt to throwing a bigger ball, so who knows? Still, I haven't read anything bad about him. At worst, he gives us a little depth, which was greatly needed.

nobody ... no but do you have proof to the contrary?

Where's that link to the chone projection?

I linked it already...

Here it is again: http://eastwindupchronicle.com/chone-projects-the-2009-japanese-pitcher-free-agent-class/

Ballpark, off the top of my head, I'd put Kuroda down for 180 IP at an ERA around 4 and Kawakami down for an ERA in the 4.2 to 4.3 range. I'm not going to try and guess at his IP total, because frankly I have no idea where he'll end up fitting in the Braves rotation. There are clearly already 3 guys ahead of him, and he could easily by 2 guys from a group of Campillo, Morton, Reyes, and Hanson, so I'm not positive he'll stick in the rotation all year.

Sheets will give you 140 innings and an ERA lower than 4.00 for probably around what the Braves paid for Kawakame.

nixa, are you just mad or do you yourself have confidence in Kawakame? If so, care to make some ballpark projections?

Posted by: caseyB | January 13, 2009 at 07:42 PM
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You'll find my projections below...care to make any yourself.

I'm not mad nor am I especially confident in Kawakami. I just have really bad OCD and can't help but respond to people who are wrong and to stubborn to ever admit it.

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Did you even read what I wrote, nixa? His second half decline could be a sign that they finally caught on. In which case expect a big decline next year. How would you call that successful?

Posted by: caseyB | January 13, 2009 at 07:40 PM
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Did you even read my post? As I stated, despite the higher ERA, Kuroda improved his K rate, BB rate, and HR rate in the 2nd half of the season. All of his peripherals improved in the 2nd half. If the league had actually "figured him out," wouldn't we expect all of these numbers to move in the opposite direction?

I predict Kuroda to pitch no more than about 160 innings next year and to have an ERA of roughly 4.25. This will put his 2008 season in a new light.

I predict Kawakame to have an ERA of around 4.50 his first year and the chone projection of 135 innings seems about right.

Should I be close, I do not view these as successful Japanese starters.

"All of his peripherals improved in the 2nd half. If the league had actually "figured him out," wouldn't we expect all of these numbers to move in the opposite direction?"

Not necessarily. I think it just remains to be seen. As I said, it was just a guess. But if it was because of fatigue, don't you think that's a failure in itself? And at his age, one would expect him to decline next year.

Yeah, I know the demand for Sheets will be higher. But why didn't the Braves even make him an offer?

He may go for a bargain rate. They didn't even try. He will be way better than Kawakame this season.

Also, nixa you seem to be missing a critical point which makes me think you are not reading my posts correctly.

I cannot call a success a starter who not only cannot maintain a consistently good ERA but who also cannot pitch close to a full major league season. I doubt either Kuroda or Kawakame will do that next year.

And I believe the Cubs and the Giants are the only teams in the NL with a #4 starter projected to be >1.5 WAR

well 1st off i want to say if the Mets or the Phillies signed Lowe this would be a great day for all of them..but the fact that atl signed him...its terrible and it sucks and they over paid..(like those NY teams dont over pay for everyone). Also i cant stand the Mets fans are saying we blew 26 games now we will be perfect and win 26 more on top of 89...115 games..well that was last year..in that case will wright get those 4 game winning hits this year?..or will Sanatana be lights out? or will Reyes cry or steal bases?? If it was that easy to just sign and trade for a weakness you had last year and win it all....we all could do that damn job..right now the Phillies r in the lead and u have to beat the best to be the best

I bet they are not projected to give their teams only 135 innings. That's terrible.

nobody ... don't play coy ... give the actual IPs and ERA projections of those other #4 starters so we can see exactly what you are talking about.

nobody ... you simply cannot make that assumption about Sheets.

We simply don't know, but we do know that 1) the market is just slow this year and 2) many free agents, especially the starters, are waiting for others to sign.

There is no way someone who is projected to pitch only 135 innings with a 4.50 ERA is worth 48 million. No GM would agree with you.

I meant to say $8 million... not 48 million.

"There is no way someone who is projected to pitch only 135 innings with a 4.50 ERA is worth 48 million. No GM would agree with you."

First of all, I said 135 IP & 4.50 ERA is worth about $7M. That is simple fact, based on what GMs are paying per WAR these days.

Second of all, Kawakami's contract is 3 yrs, $23M, according to the most recent news. That's ~$7.7M/yr.

In other words, based on YOUR projection for Kawakami, which is pessimistic, the we are only very slightly overpaying him.

"What #4 starters are you talking about for the Cubs and
Giants. I think you're taking liberties with the data."

Ryan Dempster and Randy Johnson I think.

And again, you can look them up yourself if you think I'm "taking liberties with the data."

Also how could it possibly matter who I am using as a #4 starter for CHI and SF? either I am using pitchers who are better than the actual #4s, which doesn't hurt my case at all because I already said CHI and SF were the exceptions, or they are worse which helps my case as well.

Also, as I said, your projection is pessimistic. CHONE projections indicate that Kawakami will be well worth the money we're paying him.

"Right, a good GM would prefer not to pay more than $7M, since that's what that kind of production is worth."

Who said? Please explain how that can be. Give a link or prove it.

"Tell me, what GM is going to pay that money if they knew that was the performance they would get? Maybe only Cashman."

I'm not sure what point you're trying to make. I've already agreed that 135IP and 4.50 ERA is not worth $8M. I've also stated that I think your projection is overly pessimistic, and that even if it is accurate, we are not overpaying him by much.

I would imagine that Lincecum's IP projection is based on the fact that he has pitched 2 seasons in the majors, 146 IP and 227 IP. I believe Fangraphs addresses this exact topic here: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/lincecum-versus-verducci-and-pap

"Who said? Please explain how that can be. Give a link or prove it."

Are you familiar with WAR? It measures the amount of wins a player is worth over a replacement level player. It is widely considered at this point to be the best indicator of a player's value. Based on the contracts GMs give to free agents, we can determine how much WAR is worth. It just so happens to be $4.4M/WAR (plus the minimum contract, which is about 400k I think). This is explained here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/win-values-explained-part-six

as for win values ... how did you come to the conclusion that a 4.50 ERA and 135 innings is worth approximately 2 wins?

"well nobody, I don't agree with the strict adherence to Verducci's theories. I'm with Bill James on this. Not that I think Lincecum will exceed 2008 -- rather he will be much closer to james' projections than chones."

That's fine. That's a reasonable position to take. It doesn't mean, however, that CHONES is worthless, or isn't a good method for estimating a player's future performance. It just means that you have to be aware of what variables are in play, and when a specific projection requires adjustment.

"Just because they were close on Kuroda in 2008, doesn't mean much. A projection system is always going to be close on some players and far away on others."

Both of those statements are true. But, again, that doesn't mean CHONE is worthless...it's one of the best methods we have for projecting player performance, and it is certainly more useful than cobbling together reports from random analysts and trying to make meaning out of them without using any statistical analysis.

For more information on how accurate various projection systems are, here are some links:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/so-how-did-tht-projections-do/
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=569
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=564

"as for win values ... how did you come to the conclusion that a 4.50 ERA and 135 innings is worth approximately 2 wins?"

I just looked real quick through the CHONE projections for a close match. Johnny Cueto is projected at 144 IP w/ a 4.50 ERA, and is 1.5 WAR.

"What is the basis for saying Santana will only start 31 games?"

IIRC, CHONE projections factor in the possibility of injury, so I imagine that is where that's coming from.

nobody .. Santana will be 30 this season. Why plan on an injury for him? I don't get it. Or do they subtract about 3 starts for every starter of that age????

This is what I mean. It seems totally arbitrary.

"

nobody .. Santana will be 30 this season. Why plan on an injury for him? I don't get it. Or do they subtract about 3 starts for every starter of that age????

This is what I mean. It seems totally arbitrary."

Well, they aren't "planning" on injury for him. They're just factoring it in as a possibility. I'm not sure how exactly they factor it in, or how accurate it is - if you're really interested, you might try asking the guy who invented the model. Not sure what the best way to get an answer from him would be, but his blog is here: http://www.lanaheimangelfan.blogspot.com/

Maybe he has an email address listed somewhere there or on the other site, or you could always post a comment on one of his blog posts.

Btw he has an interesting post on his blog on Lowe and Kawakami that went up a few hours ago it looks like.

hey nobody ... I was looking over chones and saw hudson is projected to pitch 154 innings with an ERA of 3.92.

Didn't he have TJ surgery just last July/August? If so, that projection is totally off base, which perfectly illustrates my points in the previous post.

"Yes I know this is not very scientific but I just can't see taking as gospel -- even if it's just for the sake of a debate here -- systems which make their own somewhat arbitrary decisions or make formulaic decisions without taking into account common sense exceptions."

Well, yea, that's why I said "using projection models like CHONE along with some common sense".

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"I just don't like using these systems to settle an argument"

What better way is there to settle an argument about something like what a player is worth than using a projection model combined with some common sense?

"hey nobody ... I was looking over chones and saw hudson is projected to pitch 154 innings with an ERA of 3.92."

I would assume CHONE is not taking into account that Hudson will be out of commission for most of the season. Which is why, again, it is important to employ common sense when using these projections.

It seems like you've gotten the impression that I think you can just look at the projections for each player and nothing else to determine what a player is worth, etc. That's really not the case. Often the projection is all you need, but there are variables you need to consider that the projection models don't necessarily take into account (as in the case of Hudson). The projections are always a good starting point, though, and (so long as you don't ignore those other variables) there really isn't any good alternative.

And now I gotta go as well. Nice talking to you.

CaseyB, you are probably right that if Wren or any GM were absolutely certain that the projection would be dead right, they wouldn't pay somebody like Kawakami 8 million. However, if you have money to spend, and need a starter, why not gamble on somebody like Kawakami, who has the potential to overperform against his projections (hitters have never seen him), rather than Sheets, who could be dominant but could also have his arm fall off mid-season? I think Kawakami was actually the safer play.

Go get Adam Dunn or Bobby Abreu now and win that division.

I just love how some of the Mets fans can not just come in and talk about how good their team is, but also bad mouth the Braves. When is the last time they won a championship? When is the last time they choked (hahahaha thanks Phillies!)?

Point blank, the Mets have a great lineup with star-studded players. You overpaid for what was supposed to be last years MVP in Beltran. Wright is a true baseball player that is great at everything and deserves to win. Reyes has the caliber to be great but lets his ego get in the way during games and trys to be Manny. The point is, there is no chemistry.

The Phillies did not have the best star-studded players, but had key role players that provided when they needed to. The Phillies had chemistry and thats what makes a team. Don't expect either NY team to make the World Seires, money does not buy happiness my friend.

The Braves will have a chance of contending this year and thats all that matters. The Braves are looking just as good as the Mets, Phillies, and Marlins. Should be an exciting September to watch.

CHOKE METS!!!!!!

"I just love how some of the Mets fans can not just come in and talk about how good their team is, but also bad mouth the Braves."

I'm neither a Braves nor Mets fan but I can comment how amazingly silly that statement is when every time there's a Mets post, Braves fans will bash the Mets as well. Let's also not forget that before this week many Braves fans were near the point of rioting because Wren hadn't improved the team yet.

The NL East race is going to be very, very exciting next year. I just wish Jim Bowden knew how to run a baseball team so he didn't have 14 outfielders and 3 starting pitchers.

The Mets addressed their bullpen with Putz and KRod, I personally think this may cause some chemistry issues on the team with Putz wanted to resume a closer's role and KRod, no matter what the hype is, will blow a couple saves. Santana/Pelfry/Maine is nice but the Mets better sign Perez or someone to keep Tim Redding out of the #4 spot *shudders* Solid lineup aside from the catching spot. I'd say grab Pudge. The Mets are a question of how well the team ends up getting along in my opinion and their bench is a large question aside from Tatis to me. I don't neccessarily support their moves so far.

The Phillies got Park in their pen and Ibanez in their outfield so far. Simple offseason and I expect a similar season next year. Eye-popping bullpen, good-enough rotation in a bad park, and an inconsistent but quality offense. Depending largely on if Ibanez's age is a problem. Howard/Ultey can only keep a team going for so long. When was the last time they had a reliable 3B? Scott Rolen? Placido Polanco?

The Braves are light-years better not because of the signings in particular but because they will have Soriano, Gonzo, Infante, Diaz and Acosta ready to go on opening day not to mention a new start for Frankie and a not grieving Kotchman ready to go. Unfortunately, they still are missing a 3rd power hitter and a definate leadoff man. Johnson could be a 75-85 RBI hitter in the 6th or 7th spot and he has bad speed so I dislike seeing him leading off. Our options are to let Escobar go on even though he is definately a #2 hitter or give Andruw or Anderson the last OF spot which I don't agree with either way. Lowe/Kawakami/Vasquez all seem excited to be here and the Braves have the best managing crew in baseball at keeping players happy so I expect no complaints. It's really a matter of consistent starting offense to me. With Norton, Ross and a lot of OF options, the Braves have an amazing bench but still, the pitching looks much better but they Bravos def still need a solid hitter to seriously contend to me.

And again, yes, I am sure JJ Putz is going to purposely pitch bad, ruin the Mets season, and completely sabotage the rest of his career because he is unhappy being a setup man. That one never gets old. I don't care if JJ Putz is the angriest person in the world, I don't even care if he slaps small children in the street to vent his frustration, as long as he performs on the mound. And if he wants a big contract after 2010, then he better perform.

I kind of think the Braves are gonna pull off a Swisher/Nady trade.

if you think about it they kind of have an abundance in their bullpen especially with the guys they have coming up from the minors you have

Jeff Ridgeway
Phil Stockman
Stephen Marek
Kris Medlen
Todd Redmond

We also just got Boone Logan in a trade.

Plus we have

Soriano
Gonzalez
Moylan
Acosta
Bennett
Boyer
Carlyle

i think a trade to NY is in order just because they are known to want some bullpen help.

I dont know if they would want an minor leaguer or someone experienced

From what i saw last year i think we should hold on to Stockman and Ridgway. Stockman was excellent in his few appearances and Ridgway gives us another lefty incase ohman doesnt return.

so say Blaine Boyer and Manny Acosta for Swisher/Nady?

if they want someone young then give em Acosta/Boyer + Marek/Medlen

Our bullpen will still be good as will our rotation.

Soriano should be closing imo just because he is being paid almost 7 mil to do so plus i like having a lefty and righty as setup.

Soriano CL
Gonzalez SU
Moylan SU
Stockman RHP
Ridgway LHP
Bennett RHP
Carlyle/Logan whoever for this last spot

1. Lowe 7 ip avg
2. Vazquez 7 ip avg
3. Jurrjens 6 ip avg
4. Campillo 6 ip avg
5. Kawakami 5-6 ip avg

so with that going on our bullpen shouldnt be as worn out as it was last season with so many guys going deep into the game. the great thing is that all those guys in the rotation are capable of throwing into the 8th inning meaning if anything our bullpen might get "under used" if thats possible.

it also allows bobby cox down the road of the season to have a healthy bullpen going into the play offs if we make it.

all in all this Braves team as it stands has a nice chance just based on the fact of the pitching alone which is how they won for many years before. just give them a little pop like Swisher and that line up becomes just as solid as everyone elses

1. L - Anderson/Shafer CF
2. R - Escobar SS
3. S - Chipper 3B
4. S - Swisher/Nady LF
5. L - McCann C
6. L - Kotchman 1B
7. R - Frenchy RF
8. L - Johnson 2B

I agree with Jeg. It was a nice signing (Lowe) but we shouldn't get overly excited as the Braves are playing in what should be a very strong division and have some question marks (cleanup hitter, Frenchy, players coming back from arm injuries, can chipper stay healthy for a full year). If we are all lucky that division will be neck and neck until the end providing a little stretch run excitement.

I keep saying all good GM'S have patience, Cashman is no different. That is why trading for Nady, might get done faster than Swisher. Again Cashman, could say not enough value for him, so they keep him. That would not surprise me either.

Atlanta face Philadelphia in the first game. Lowe versus Hamels. Gonna be a good pitching duel to start off the year.

"So as a fan, I think I would be better off by simply looking at a player, his age, experience and previous seasons' stats and then adding in common sense from the beginning. That's my opinion and I'm sticking to it, lol."

If you're just trying to determine playing time, that's a reasonable approach. But for rate stats, there is no reasonable alternative to using a projection model. Guesstimating, even relatively informed guesstimating, is never going to be more accurate than statistical analysis in that respect. This is why, imo, it makes the most sense to start with the projection model, and then consider whether the playing time projection is reasonable or needs to be adjusted.

Hey Metzfan

No team in baseball is in the same category as the Mets. NO OTHER TEAM IN HISTORY HAS HAD SO MUCH TALENT AND BE SUCH CHOKERS.
WHICH CRAPPY TEAM BEAT YOU 4-6 GAMES IN SEPTEMBER THAT WOULD BE THE BRAVES

Anyone thought about the Braves trading for Mike Cameron?

Solid DEF with some pop in his bat. yeah hes getting up there in age but he obviously still has some pep in his step stealing 17 bases

DLowe has always been a more productive pitcher than Suppan. Soup just got that contract because of his postseason with the Cards. Why on earth would we want Cameron. We have Druw coming back, Schaffer and Gorkyz. We don't need another swing happy CF.

Braves fans..who will be our leadoff hitter??